Thexder's journey to(ward?) freedom

Thanks Thexder for answering the PM and for the work you are doing here.

Been swinging back and forth in a narrow range lately and not much in the way of appealing setups with the waves in that confined space so I started zooming different time frames to see if something else within the sideways range was available.

4 hour pin right at the top of the range gave me a good target right at the bottom of the range. Looking for the next setup now.

Back on the hourly chart looking for something, I still don't see any satisfactory waves I tend to take but using the price action bars and support/resistance I found something to get in on.

Bouncing off the bottom support along with an hourly pin in doing so, I pulled a tentative fib across that as a possible wave to trade long. The low of that pin was slightly violated by another bar which would normally discourage me from looking for a long but things started looking longish again and then a break of the high point came. I still wasn't so interested but now that it's gotten near that time of day where things take off, I noticed price was lingering near that high so I set an order to go long if it breaks higher again and it has now done that and hit the 100% target.

This is being watched for a potential short. The sideways activity is persisting and now there is a bounce from the top of the range that has swung to a low point where the fib is positioned, the pullback so far hasn't violated the top and it's looking bearish currently.

If it breaks short the 100% target is reasonably located near the bottom of the range again, otherwise sensible targets could be anywhere from 38.2 to 61.8% where there may be resistance (in the form of support) from the cluster of activity yesterday there. The round 300 number also sits near 38.2%.

Here's how Friday played out. The fib I had looking for a short did end up violating its high point but I kept the order for the short in place based on watching the activity. Just before the 8:30am big news, that's where the high peak was formed but it did so by forming a double top on 5M or 15M views as I've shown. I circled the double top high in yellow on hourly and the lower time frame chart. JUST before 8:30 that double top had developed the first relatively big down bar which broke the neckline of the double top on the lower time frame and that's what made me think it's still bearish. My pending short order being at the fib low, it was 45 pips away and down below a whole mess of that sideways hourly stuff going on all evening and night as seen on the hourly chart. If a big news spike is going to develop and it's going to do a fake down move and then take off upward, I thought I'm at a safe distance and have all that support in the way before it gets to the fib low so if a spike can trigger my short, I'll go with it.

People say big news spikes don't cause anything random to occur in that big and scary momentum, it just makes price go where it was intending to go, faster. So that's what happened exactly. It got me in short and went directly to my 100% target. It could have done that slowly over a day but the news momentum made it occur faster. I wasn't one bit worried, perhaps naively so but that's part of the journey.

So in true fashion of the overall day to day sideways ranging (I showed the daily chart to show how it's a mess up there even though I can clean it up on hourly by zooming in and looking for bounces) after getting to the bottom of the range with the news, it bounced back up, and by then things were ready to settle down so I was going to watch for anything new. I couldn't help noticing the hourly pin bouncing off the upper resistance. It didn't make it right back up to the top boundary so I felt confident and bearish with the bearish pin, the bounce from resistance, the lack of ability to have gone as high up as before in the channel, and the obvious bearish momentum of the news acceleration. I took a short there and now I'm holding over the weekend, hoping any gaps higher won't get me in trouble. I felt I had significant distance between my short entry around 0300 and the end of day close at 0232.

A few years ago I'd totally stay out on days with big news but now I just continue my analysis looking for the things I look for and ignoring the turbulence

Friday's hourly pin short has held up well over the weekend and the value has gone up 100 through this evening. So I have a lot locked in now and we just had an hourly bullish pin form so my stop is located somewhere above there. Can't ask for much more out of an hourly chart setup.

Ever since I exited the short with a stop above the hourly pin previously mentioned, I set the fib range for a potential up reversal move but nothing broke and now it's been going sideways within that fib boundary for 3 days. It's remaining biased toward the long side of the range and it keeps stabbing quickly at the top boundary only to fall away so at this point I'm just observing it, not looking to trade because I want to take reversals mainly and right now there's nothing to reverse from. If there is a break out finally, I will look for a pull back to the break out and something to get in for a continuation if it looks right when it happens, otherwise let it break out and then try to reverse when it reaches wherever it wants to go when it leaves here.

Currently in a Long from around 0190 and set for break even to see if something develops. I was previously sitting on the sidelines after it started going sideways too long and there was nothing to trade as a reversal but if it should break out I'd look for a pull back and entry or something similar and that's what I ended up doing finally.

The orange/yellow line shows generally where the upper boundary has been and those minor peaks through it that went nowhere or had no significance to me otherwise for days. I had mentioned my bias was long overall because price was mostly riding on the upper half of the boundary and trying to seemingly get higher but being rejected for some reason. I would still just watch for a break and pull back on either end but my bias was long.

So finally on the 14th there was another attempt to break through the boundary at point D and this time it managed to stick around up there longer and fight back and forth for several hours instead of a quick up and rejection, so it was "basing" near the break out point. When it pulled back within the channel and formed a consolidation at point F I looked at this as a break out and pull back with a good place to set a long order just above point F but with a tight stop below point F. Since I was faithful about the strength of a long, I was willing to put up the 30 pips risk for this move. Normally I wouldn't just trade a small consolidation like point F on its own, it has to be a part of a bigger process.

Point F also happened to rest above point E which was another recent consolidation that was able to act as a support for F. It's as if price wanted to go long, it could have blasted on down ignoring point E but since it stopped there it was just adding up to a big picture in favour of a long. I'd normally not just take that E and F setup as a reason to say ok it bounced from E so it must be going up again...these small consolidations on their own mean nothing to me for a move strong enough to trade. It has to be a confluence of biases for a trade and I had that. And I had the luxury of time for the past 4 days to analyze this flow. If this were all happening within one day I'd probably not be feeling it the same and would miss the move.

So I'm at break even and might get stopped out for nothing but I'm hoping this is the real break out this time plus my stop is just under the round 0200 and hopefully it is ready to go long. But this could already be the end of the long move because point C has already reached the upper first resistance from point A and B, so from here it could be ready to go short and there has been a sort-of hourly pin already formed there. So I'll see how it goes.

The long from last week is still going where I entered after the consolidation of point F, given a long bias with the attempted long break of point D and the pull back to F being a good place to enter as a confirmation of the long if it should try to go higher from there.

Point C is where price last was when I posted the previous chart and I said I was at break even and anything could happen. It idled higher all day after that and so far has remained up this evening but again anything can happen so I moved the stop up for protected profit. There hasn't been any real momentum going on so I'm not ready to look for any new trades, just locking in old profits.

Exited long when it idled down all day and now watching what appears to be a possible bearish bias so far being rejected from a peak but there's something momentumless about that descent, although it moved down yesterday it did so in a sideways fashion (bars seeming parallel even though they're moving down overall) so it's not the type of momentum I like to see in a setup. It's just sluggish looking and could go anywhere.

In looking for the next setup I noticed the sudden take off upward for which there was no long setup to get into so I was looking for a chance to reverse short using whatever I had in my experience. On a longer time frame the up move came close to some 4 hour spikes last week so that may indicate an area to go short (with a setup to confirm) but it wasn't quite as high as those spikes so I didn't really use that, it could have continued going higher.

So I opted to watch a lower time frame for peaks and valleys combined with resistance and double tops, time of day, and finally luck.

The 5 minute chart shows the best waves so leading up to now there have been constantly ascending highs and lows. I'd be looking for a low to be broken as one way to get in but that alone isn't enough, especially on M5. Bringing time of day into it, the big momentum part of the day has passed and although there may be another surge left I would expect that to only help a trade if one is taken for good reason or at least the stop is tight enough to make a risk of a loss worth gambling on.

So if I assume I won't get shaken out by the usual 8:30am ET thing since it's been a while since then, I noticed in lieu of having a broken wave so far to go short, a double top has formed. This could be a confirmation that the daily momentum (time of day) is out of steam. I decided to go short up near 0350 (round number also) on that second peak of the double top with a very small stop so that if the stop is taken out, it's not going to be a double top after all and not much risk to take.

It's doing the sideways thing for now so see what happens. If it doesn't go anywhere at some point I might just exit with whatever small profit there is.

The up move has shown some signs of coming to an end with divergence combined with a failure today to close higher like the previous days. The ascending waves appear to be done so I anticipate sideways consolidation or a down move. I've marked the current wave that has already broken short and that occurred after the minor pullback up to 38.2% retracement of the range, which is a minor resistance area being re-tested from the start of yesterday at the 0440 level. In forming the current trading wave, price had to dip below this support, formed the low of the wave, came back up to test 0440 as resistance at the 38.2 pull back region, then went on to break short. But anything can go wrong and this one is a 90 pip trading wave so it's going to be monitored closely. Not willing to take a 90 hit.

Here's another good reason to be going short today...

Another few days of sideways movement so watching for some sort of bias I decided it was time to try going long this evening. Looking at the most significant peaks on the hourly chart I found divergence with a long bias. Monday also looked like it resulted in a long bias since it tried to make a big move down, snapped back up near the top of the sideways channel (not very much of a down momentum), then idled on down towards the channel low and seemed to hold, which on its own isn't a long bias but it's a support against a short bias.

So combining the observations of the recent movement and the divergence, it was time to look for a place to go long. The circled area shows a sudden attempt to go upward with a relatively large bar compared to the idle movements, breaking the sideways resistance under the pink line. This could be a long breakout in its infancy. So within the circle, the first hourly bar thrust up through the resistance (and closed above it) while the next bar tried to dip back down into now-support and couldn't make it back down. I took this as a break out and re-test at least worth a shot. I was vulnerable when first entering (at market when I felt it was time) because it's still right in the center of the channel and could go anywhere still, but I stacked all the evidence and went with it.

Now I'm at break even because it's surged up +30 from entry and I feel much better.

Looks like the long break out was for real and it hasn't come back to threaten the entry point so the break even stop has held. No surprise where it stopped when it did go long and headed for resistance. Now it has bounced from resistance and is taking the head and shoulders formation so anything could happen in these idle hours, it could go sideways or continue upward momentum or just drift back down for a short setup.

Currently no new setups so just watching and holding.

Still holding the long and it's basing near the upper resistance which could be a sign of a further long break. It's taking a stab at it now. On a longer time frame this resistance area is more significant and it can only take so many beatings before it gives way. Maybe this is that time so I'm going to maintain a wider stop and see if it can get through even if it rebounds a little. Still not going to take a loss but not going to tighten up the stop for profit just yet.

Still holding on, now it's attempting to push higher and anything can still happen, it could finally rebound down due to the round 0500 holding as resistance or if zooming out long term there's general resistance there, and there is a big hourly pin type shape currently going idle for the evening, but also the idle activity could be perceived to be riding on top of all those recent highs and it may become support after all. I tightened up the stop a little to lock in something worthwhile at this point.

Holding over weekend

I haven't looked back over the trades of the last few weeks but I know lately I haven't posted the fib across any waves. I haven't dropped it but as I mentioned before it is only used as a convenient tool to mark a boundary of high and low wave levels and to give an arbitrary target of 100% extension, which doesn't have anything to do with fib trading really, just support/resistance with textbook height-of-pattern targets. What I have been doing is using the divergence more in helping choose those trading wave setups so that's what I've focused on posting. That way I can watch how I evolve when I do get time to look back. The basics are the same. I'm surprised this current up move has gone so far but I trailed my stop behind successive waves as I showed and it took care of itself. If it were time to exit, I'd have been out automatically just as I'm still long automatically (I initially set a fixed target but I had time to micro manage and go to break even instead of exiting). I thought I'd take the time to clarify the evolution for anyone following and wondering if I've been flailing around on the charts doing something different every day.

The long that was held over the weekend was exited during pullback and then it was time to watch for something else. A daily inside bar formed and was broken to the down side and went for a run but I didn't take any of that. Yesterday that down attempt bounced and formed a daily pin which I am now in on long. The pin formed by coming back up to meet hourly resistance, then after a short dwell going slightly higher and consolidating above resistance, which is a good support place to wait for a long break of the daily pin and put a tight stop. I'm going to let it auto trail and see if it can get started.