Central Banks & Big Players

Hello guys,

I guess it is especially rare if you do not follow it on friday...


Billy

Not normally but JAN has been terrible!

This is the worst month Ive seen since I started trading Forex back in april. Just choppy, non uniform price action. At least Im not losing money, but Im starting to lose my patience.

10 pip candles are on vacation, they'll be back soon

Let's hope so, amigo. This 25-pip range sh^t can be scalped but its treacherous. When its like this I might go hunting off the M5 charts, but thats awfully slow if you're used to M1 and under.

Tony, how’s it going. I wanna ask you your opinion about money management for this system. Today, following GBP news at 4:30 EST, there was a 28 pip 5 sec bull candle on GU, followed by a 7 pip candle. Spread jumped up 20 pips, but 5 min later when price retraced half that candle and spread went down to 2.6 pips, I went long for a conservative 20 pips TP. I was floating 18 pips profit before price reversed and took me out at b/e. I really didn’t expect price to correct itself that quickly. So my question is what if stops were moved to 5-6 pips profit instead of b/e, to be used as risk capital towards the next trade?

I've seen some large 5 sec candles with the speed and momentum of a possible large move, lead only to moves of 25-30 pips, before reversing and moving past entry and I have also seen situations where price retraces to 2-3 pips from entry before bouncing back and moving +50 pips in direction of trade. I guess it’s all about statistics, which scenario happens more often. Tony, if your minimum tp is 40 pips, you will see a lot of trades where you are floating 20-30 pips profit before price reverses and takes you out at break even. Again it’s a question of statistics, but couldn’t it be more advantageous to collect 5-6 pips instead of b/e on those reverse trades as risk capital, especially if you have an aggressive lot size compounding strategy. What do you think? Thanks again for sharing your work.

Best,

Dan Aaron

Hi,

Looks like you were trading news with this....Not a good idea... If it works for you well done. I moved away from news trading even after some big wins.. I was losing more then winning.

With regards to your targets etc....only in the last weeks of Dec and Jan it has been slow and hard, I have made 100pips plus and usually dont leave a target.

Just so that you know, I usually trade for 20 pips, I move to BE as soon as I can. (Usually works enough for me to keep it like that) Then as soon as its at 25 Move it to 10. trailing it until 20, Then I leave it.... I dont care what happens after that I have my pips. I manually trade until the 20 pips is safe...usually the first 20mins of the london open then after that I set SMS alarms at price levels. and if it triggers one then I check it and move my stop, Im lucky to be able to watch charts during work hours, but im not going to do it all day long, so if I see it reversing will pull out if I dont let it run..

If you understand what im trying to say?

This does work... Hope Feb is better

Hi Oz,

Many people say so, but I wouldn’t generalize and say that trading ALL news is extremely risky. If you have a trend following system with indicators, it will more often than not fail during news. However, there is a golden moment when trading news with Tony’s system is low risk and this is the only moment I have traded news. Actually, I only saw this moment twice this month and watched almost every GBP news release. So entering a trade on news for me is more an exception than the norm.

The first time was the first week of this year. I looked at the news schedule and saw that there was a release at 4:30 AM EST and that it was released to Thomson Reuters subscribers 2 minutes earlier than the public. So exactly at 4:28 AM on the 5 sec chart, I saw a 15 pip bull candle shoot up and slowly retrace towards the open of the 15 pip candle and did not penetrate the low. It was like hearing a voice saying “hey guys, start your engines, in two minutes we’re going this way” and that’s exactly what happened. Price made a u-turn, I jumped in at the reverse and without any ranging, price shot up and I took 20 pips with 5 (+2-3 spread) pip risk. Because my mind was set looking only to go long, the trade was taken with more confidence than typically at London open, where you are looking for direction to enter and occasionally experience a little bit of ranging before you know if your entry was good or bad. Sorry for not capturing a pic, next time.

Almost the same deal today, just didn’t reach my tp. Could’ve-should’ve-would’ve exited instead at the high of the initial move. Just like you, I move my stop to b/e as soon as possible. How I exit the trade will depend. Because of the daily hi-lo range of each preceding day, which affects the distance between pivots and camarilla differently each day, I normally don’t go for a set number of pips to trail my stops. If I see a trend and waves on the minute chart, I may trail the stop manually from swing to swing and if the trend is strong on the minute chart, I might move up to the 5 minute chart and continue in the same fashion. Or I might wait for the hour candle to close and manage the trade from there. As long as you get a good entry, there are many ways to exit. To find a good exit is the most enjoyable part.

Should I see big losses with this news trading approach, I would naturally quit it immediately. I understand we will eventually see good moves at London open, just having fun until then. Yes, I have no life right now, I know. Hey, January ain’t over yet my friend, let’s see what happens manana. Each system has its days, today was great for scalping the EU on the 1 minute chart. Perhaps next London will yield a perfect setup for this system.

Hi Aaron,

is there a website that shows which news are released to TR earlier?

thanks

Yes, here on FF. Check out the Jan 4, 4:30 EST GBP Manufacturing PMI, when I saw the 15 pip candle. Click the detail icon to the right and read the FF notes.

http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar...y=2010-1-4&c=2

Thanks! never noticed that!

Any time.

Tony & gang, tomorrow will be a payday - look at Tony's post # 724

Amazing move.

Tony, will you answer my second PM please?

Release postponed to the 26th. Double-checked. However, be cautious and don't expect similar move as last time.

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/hub/rel...calendar-entry

Hey! This is my first post on FF. Anyways, I have been trading this system for about a 3 weeks now with some nice trades, however, I have been unable to stay awake throughout the entire London and US session due to my time zone (I am in California). I generally watch the first hour and a half, but a lot of times I am just watching small movements with little action. So I was wondering if someone can kinda tell me what are the best hours for this trading system, I don't mind waking up just to trade these hours, but it is rather harder for me to stay up for about 2 weeks during the best hours to figure it out myself through observation. So if there are any specific time suggestions I would greatly appreciate it! Thanks.

Angeles

I understand your difficult time zone but as with any method there is no guarantees in this business, sometimes the market will idle for a day or two. I think the best thing for you would be to check the News Calendar to see if anything of importance is coming out, and related to your pairs of interest.
Also reading general news will help because sometimes some official will say something during one session and it will rattle the other sessions as well as those traders wake up and react to those news.

Hope this helps.

RW

a

yea

I have read every post in this forum and am very impressed. Any system that implements at leaste a 3:1 risk return ratio has a very high chance of succeeding. Price action is the key to all great trades.
I'll follow this thread and contribute when I can.

Thanks Tony and Happy Trading

back my charts, we gotta do what we gotta do vacation is over