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AUD/USD

  • #13,781
  • Jan 18, 2010 3:59am Jan 18, 2010 3:59am
hi all,
Just got back to my computer and nothing much seems to be happening. Is the stock market closed as well in the US or is it just a bank holiday?
My short order of 9260 got filled, but I am not sure if its going to be anygood tonight with such low volume. Sinner, can you pl tell us the percentage of short/longs, and if you have access to total volumes?
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #13,782
  • Jan 18, 2010 4:03am Jan 18, 2010 4:03am
Quoting tradoholic
hi all,
Sinner, can you pl tell us the percentage of short/longs, and if you have access to total volumes?
Volume has been pretty light for a range of this size, but convincing in every other aspect.

I keep telling you guys: just watch the London open price. If we are above, buy only. If below, sell only.
  • #13,783
  • Jan 18, 2010 4:07am Jan 18, 2010 4:07am
Quoting sinner-
Volume has been pretty light for a range of this size, but convincing in every other aspect.

I keep telling you guys: just watch the London open price. If we are above, buy only. If below, sell only.
Thank you
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #13,784
  • Jan 18, 2010 4:14am Jan 18, 2010 4:14am
Seems to be stuck in a tight range. A break out without any news or major event is unlikely in either direction. Could be a boring night. I have entered short on AUD, but might exit and call it a night shortly. Any one staying through the session?
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #13,785
  • Jan 18, 2010 4:17am Jan 18, 2010 4:17am
Quoting tradoholic
Seems to be stuck in a tight range. A break out without any news or major event is unlikely in either direction. Could be a boring night. I have entered short on AUD, but might exit and call it a night shortly. Any one staying through the session?
Yeah I'm short again @0.9262 SL @0.9280 TP @0.9190
  • #13,786
  • Jan 18, 2010 4:18am Jan 18, 2010 4:18am
Quoting Daytrader74
Yeah I'm short again @0.9262 SL @0.9280 TP @0.9190
We go up on this one.... i've got signal from 15M to 1H...
  • #13,787
  • Jan 18, 2010 4:20am Jan 18, 2010 4:20am
Quoting Daytrader74
Yeah I'm short again @0.9262 SL @0.9280 TP @0.9190
Doesnt look too promising at the moment for shorts.
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #13,788
  • Jan 18, 2010 4:22am Jan 18, 2010 4:22am
Quoting tradoholic
Doesnt look too promising at the moment for shorts.
Forgot to add chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CropperCapture[4].jpg Size: 52 KB
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #13,789
  • Jan 18, 2010 4:28am Jan 18, 2010 4:28am
Quoting tradoholic
Forgot to add chart
Please explain the chart
  • #13,790
  • Jan 18, 2010 4:33am Jan 18, 2010 4:33am
US is closing in we will see what happens
  • #13,791
  • Jan 18, 2010 4:36am Jan 18, 2010 4:36am
Quoting kilalik
US is closing in we will see what happens
I think US is closed tonight. So this is it...
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #13,792
  • Jan 18, 2010 4:42am Jan 18, 2010 4:42am
Doesn't look too promising on the H1 chart with a very "thin" resistence @ 0.9263-0.9270

and on the H4 chart you can see it bouncing off the cloud.

Could reach 0.93 by tonight. So i think its better to short then, rather then trying to "catch" it on the uptrend
Attached Images
  • #13,793
  • Jan 18, 2010 4:48am Jan 18, 2010 4:48am
Quoting Geppyg
Times To Trade
Look for Entry points between 24:00 GMT through to 14:00 GMT on new Signals. Outside of those times the market historically offers very little in the way of opportunity to catch momentum. Full momentum normally does not hit before the European markets open around 06:00 GMT. Market sentiment runs in waves, 24:00 GMT (Japan), 06:00 GMT (Germany), and 11:00 GMT (Chicago), and outside of those times a forex trader is unlikely to see too much sustainable movement.
Nice post GeppyG. Wish I had discovered information like this when I first started trading. Had to learn the hard way.

Tradoholic - FXCM has 61% of traders short on AUD. 55% short on NZD. 79% short on CAD. 67% short on JPY. 69% short on GBP. The only currency bucking the trend is the EUR where there are 57% of traders long on EUR.

For those of you who are new to these retail trader sentiment readings, it is a contrarian indicator given that 95% of retail traders lose (apparently). You basically want to be opposite of what the reading is if your charts agree.

For example, as there are 61% of traders short on AUD the chances of it going up are good but it’s already done approx. 100 pips from the low today and the daily ATR (average true range) for the last 30 days is 111 pips so I personally wouldn’t be looking to go long (at this point) as it has probably already done the bulk of the move for the day. Of course it is possible for PA to overshoot it's daily ATR.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #13,794
  • Jan 18, 2010 5:05am Jan 18, 2010 5:05am
Hi Patience,

do you have an indicator to show the ATR or is this something that you plot/write down manually?

thank you.
  • #13,795
  • Jan 18, 2010 5:07am Jan 18, 2010 5:07am
Quoting Geppyg
Points to be considered at this momment in time.
1.Bullish Ascending Triangle on 4HR Still Holding
2.Bullish 4 Hour pin Formed to push us back into the Triangle
3.Support is Holding at 0.9175
4.Buyers waisted no time and Volume was very good the move.

I am long of 0.9175 as this was extreme value....Just as discussed with puks with a stop at 0.9155 My target is 50 pips as a minimum per trade
After this i move my stop to break even..


Good Luck all
Hi Geppyg, thanx for great charts and good analysis. I had posted the same ascending triangle formation at my new thread :
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=216247
if you have time please look at the thread tell me what you think,may be I can improve some points.
  • #13,796
  • Jan 18, 2010 5:13am Jan 18, 2010 5:13am
Quoting Patience
Nice post GeppyG. Wish I had discovered information like this when I first started trading. Had to learn the hard way.

Tradoholic - FXCM has 61% of traders short on AUD. 55% short on NZD. 79% short on CAD. 67% short on JPY. 69% short on GBP. The only currency bucking the trend is the EUR where there are 57% of traders long on EUR.
Thanks for the information. Very helpful
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #13,797
  • Jan 18, 2010 5:14am Jan 18, 2010 5:14am
Quoting SlideLow
Hi Patience,

do you have an indicator to show the ATR or is this something that you plot/write down manually?

thank you.
If you have MT4 there is an indicator called "average true range" that you can input onto your chart.

I also forgot to say that the sentiment index can't anticipate unexpected announcements/news releases etc that happen during the day. It only shows how traders are placed so just because traders are short on the AUD meaning the chances are good for going up, if Bernanke or Geithner were to blurt out that interest rates might go up sooner than expected then you know what's going to happen.

Nice thread Shahab. Always looking to improve my limited technical knowledge. Now I know where to visit!
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #13,798
  • Jan 18, 2010 5:23am Jan 18, 2010 5:23am
Quoting Patience
Nice thread Shahab. Always looking to improve my limited technical knowledge. Now I know where to visit!
Thanx Patience, I'll be happy if I can contribute something useful.
BTW, your technical knowledge is not limited at all!!
  • #13,799
  • Jan 18, 2010 6:31am Jan 18, 2010 6:31am
Hi, anyone can give some advice what is the resistence in a short term for AudUsd now?
  • #13,800
  • Jan 18, 2010 7:36am Jan 18, 2010 7:36am
Quoting Paik_C
Hi, anyone can give some advice what is the resistence in a short term for AudUsd now?
I've got Daily Pivot R1 at 0.9289. Nice hit to S1 early on today then rammed through weekly pivot, rammed through daily, re-tested and then carried on up. Stalling at the moment though but that's probably because it's nearly done it's average daily range.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud-30min.gif Size: 23 KB
Nothing worth having is easy.
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