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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #5,481
  • Jan 17, 2010 5:04pm Jan 17, 2010 5:04pm
Quoting Misterdaz
Just dicking around re-installing everything after a few viruses paid me a visit. Thought I'd try out a new drink, whisky, blackcurrant and water....taste like p1ss.

Oh no not the fib fans, it'll be Gann lines next.

MD.
Let's just throw in the time zones and the arcs while we're at it! This Fibonacci guy was on some killer drugs! He would have been a great trader if he knew what folks were gonna do with this stuff!

ed
  • #5,482
  • Jan 17, 2010 5:23pm Jan 17, 2010 5:23pm
Quoting FX Compass
Hi Bartstop,

agree with all you have stated.

We should be headed back down for a re-test of the 0 line on the H4.
Supply will be tested a second time, and judging by the first test of this line, it is highly likely we will break to the downside and hit the extensions below.

Monthly trend is also down and we are coming from the 78.6 so the lows hit in September/October 2008 will be revisited as they are sitting at the 0 line.
Compass, fibbing the monthly from the July 08 high would put me in agreement with you but I would like to see a close below 1.3780 before I would be comfortable with this view. The Shennanigans in Greece are not boding well for the Euro.

Anything setting up nicely for the off lads?

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #5,483
  • Jan 17, 2010 5:26pm Jan 17, 2010 5:26pm
Looks like AUD is breaking to the downside.
Keep smiling
  • #5,484
  • Jan 17, 2010 5:26pm Jan 17, 2010 5:26pm
I thought I will give you guys a view of how I use fibs.I saw a few opinions about different ways some of you used them and I just want to say this is not about wrong or right is rather an exchange of opinions.
I use fibs as a tool to measure waves and get a projection for possible levels of R/S. Once mkt. hit this fib levels I watch the way price reacts and based on this I make a decision.
First we need a longer term view so we can establish major levels of support (resist).
So starting with the weekly I measure the last up move with the blue fib and you can see where the possible levels of support may be to this retracement that we see right now.
I should mention ; for me it doesn't make a difference if mkt. finds support at the 38,50 or 61 level.Mkt could react at any of this levels so the area bet. 38 and 61 which I call it inner fib levels is decision zone (DZ).
On the macro level if let's say , mkt won't react to 38 than is probably gonna travel to 50 and if is still no reaction next level to watch is 61.Just keep in mind that at this TF mkt. tends to travel from a fib level to another.
To be cont.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,485
  • Jan 17, 2010 5:33pm Jan 17, 2010 5:33pm
Now we scroll down to Daily And measure the retracement we saw on the weekly chart.As you can see on this down move , mkt already react to the 38.2 level and this suggest that next level to watch could be the low of 1.4200.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu daily.jpg Size: 100 KB
  • #5,486
  • Jan 17, 2010 5:41pm Jan 17, 2010 5:41pm
Moving down we want to see if this last move after the rejection of the red fib is a retracement of the previous up move or not.If is just a retracement than if we apply a fib tool the inner levels will hold if not the we can expect the move to continue down.As you can see on the purple fib that levels didn't hold here.Once I have a candle close below (or above) the 61.8 level I consider that on that particular move the levels where not respected.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu 4hr..jpg Size: 104 KB
  • #5,487
  • Jan 17, 2010 5:41pm Jan 17, 2010 5:41pm
Thanks Speederad, those are valid points, I look forward to your next post. I must say I have been forgeting to fib the higher timeframes of late, they do trump the lower ones.

I had a quick fiddle at a kind of TK artificially forced fib on aud. I took the view that the previous swing had been more than 61.8 retraced so I pulled my fib back and down looking for shorts. I settled my fib on a couple of swing points I know Thom likes. Let's see where she heads.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd1701.JPG Size: 73 KB


MD.
Keep smiling
  • #5,488
  • Jan 17, 2010 5:57pm Jan 17, 2010 5:57pm
Quoting speedarad
Moving down we want to see if this last move after the rejection of the red fib is a retracement of the previous up move or not.If is just a retracement than if we apply a fib tool the inner levels will hold if not the we can expect the move to continue down.As you can see on the purple fib that levels didn't hold here.Once I have a candle close below (or above) the 61.8 level I consider that on that particular move the levels where not respected.
I like what I see. One question though, on you first 2 charts you fib a complete swing, a whole big move if you will. On your third chart you don't pull your fib at the bottom of the start of the move up at 1.4216. Have a look, if you do pull it from here you will see price is currently respecting the 61.8.......just, but for how long?

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #5,489
  • Jan 17, 2010 6:04pm Jan 17, 2010 6:04pm
This would do any good if we can't trade them right? So we gonna scroll down to 1hr. where I make the trading decision.
So far we establish that as it now we are in a down trend and we know where major levels of support are from higher TFs.keep in mind the higher the TF the more weight that level carries.On the hourly I use a daily fib which I usually apply from the high to the low of previous day.However in some cases if we don't get a retracement ,this fib could be extended into the next day if is necessary.The game plan here would be to wait for the price to get into the grey box ( decision zone) and if we see a rejection from that area we will establish a short position targeting 1.27 fib extension. If price never gets into the box only option is to take the brake of the low(1.4335).this some times is a little more risky even that it also means the trend is very strong and produce only a small retracement.
If price gets above 61.8 level than this down move run out of steam and we can change our game plan and start looking for longs.Look at the fib like a seesaw if you wish where 50 level is the breaking point from a short condition and a long condition.
Hope I didn't bored you to much and hope you can find some useful insides of what I use.
Wish good trading to all of you!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,490
  • Jan 17, 2010 6:15pm Jan 17, 2010 6:15pm
Quoting Misterdaz
I like what I see. One question though, on you first 2 charts you fib a complete swing, a whole big move if you will. On your third chart you don't pull your fib at the bottom of the start of the move up at 1.4216. Have a look, if you do pull it from here you will see price is currently respecting the 61.8.......just, but for how long?

MD.
Yes you right about that. I could use that low but I chose to use the last up move because I believe that in a raging mkt fibs have less meaning if you wish because the inner levels are not respected ,so that's why I apply that fib to the last move to see if it's any different than prev. move.
Just remember that price action is very important in all this.
  • #5,491
  • Edited Jan 18, 2010 2:24am Jan 17, 2010 6:24pm | Edited Jan 18, 2010 2:24am
I like it. Another nice variation on a theme. If you like the fibs guys, I think there's certainly plenty to choose from.

Speedarad, how successful are you with this?

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #5,492
  • Jan 17, 2010 6:32pm Jan 17, 2010 6:32pm
Quoting Misterdaz
I like it. Another nice variation on a them. If you like the fibs guys, I think there's certainly plenty to choose from.

Speedarad, how successful are you with this?

MD.
Depends on the mrkt.
If we have a trending mkt the rate is getting pretty high something like 6,7 out of 10.In a raging mkt is may be 50/50 and with a good MM you can come a little on top.
But for me the biggest challenge was to read PA and I'm still working on that.Another problem is screen time because if you place trades on 1 hr. you got to be there.So I miss trades on London session plus some times I miss trades cause I don't read PA well.
  • #5,493
  • Jan 17, 2010 6:35pm Jan 17, 2010 6:35pm
I must get some sleep, goodnight.

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #5,494
  • Jan 17, 2010 7:09pm Jan 17, 2010 7:09pm
Quoting Misterdaz
Compass, fibbing the monthly from the July 08 high would put me in agreement with you but I would like to see a close below 1.3780 before I would be comfortable with this view. The Shennanigans in Greece are not boding well for the Euro.

Anything setting up nicely for the off lads?

MD.

Hi MD, currently watching EURUSD which is testing the 0 line from previous daily candle.

Will take it short to the 138 once break is confirmed.
  • #5,495
  • Jan 17, 2010 8:10pm Jan 17, 2010 8:10pm
Quoting FX Compass
Hi MD, currently watching EURUSD which is testing the 0 line from previous daily candle.

Will take it short to the 138 once break is confirmed.
headin back up now..
  • #5,496
  • Jan 17, 2010 10:00pm Jan 17, 2010 10:00pm
Quoting edkilp
headin back up now..
Looks like we're going to bounce around the 0 and 23.6 a little.

Asian session always bores me to death.
  • #5,497
  • Jan 17, 2010 10:08pm Jan 17, 2010 10:08pm
Quoting FX Compass
Looks like we're going to bounce around the 0 and 23.6 a little.

Asian session always bores me to death.
Im watching Eur/Usd also. Made 30 pips today on a Aud/Usd sell to the 1.382 fib ext. earlier
  • #5,498
  • Jan 17, 2010 10:59pm Jan 17, 2010 10:59pm
Quoting Checkz
Im watching Eur/Usd also. Made 30 pips today on a Aud/Usd sell to the 1.382 fib ext. earlier
Nice trade Checkz, Euro is teaching me patience today.
  • #5,499
  • Jan 17, 2010 11:23pm Jan 17, 2010 11:23pm
Hi guys. Here's my workaround for gettin at the different fibs quickly and easily. Instructions are on the chart. Hope you like it!

ed
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: fib pool.jpg Size: 67 KB
  • #5,500
  • Jan 18, 2010 12:40am Jan 18, 2010 12:40am
Quoting Checkz
Im watching Eur/Usd also. Made 30 pips today on a Aud/Usd sell to the 1.382 fib ext. earlier
Likewise, pips for beakfast.
Keep smiling
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