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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #2,161
  • Jan 16, 2010 11:59am Jan 16, 2010 11:59am
Quoting Olu
Hi Custos

Good point about the stochastics. Stochastics form as a result of price and not the other way round. Just like you I would not trade this short until i get a break of a swing low under the support line. I was using this to say that till there is a true break this pair may oscillate around here shredding peoples trading account as it does so
good, always good to wait for the market to show, where it likely wants to go (by waiting for a breakout).
  • #2,162
  • Jan 16, 2010 1:46pm Jan 16, 2010 1:46pm
Hi NM,

still working on my little experiment, and I was thinking of how to get a clearer target level.
I was looking now into I think 10 to 15 pinbars (which worked out) on the charts. And all of them moved to the higher time-frames last bar low / high at least.

That means, if we have a bearish pinbar on the daily, I will look at my weekly chart and look where the low of the last weekly bar was and put my target above that last weekly bar low (so that we stay conservative). Does that make sense and what do you think about that approach?

As an example I attached the nzd/jpy daily (pin-bar is the 2nd from the right). The weekly shows that the weekly bar this week went down to the low of the bar of last week. Maybe this all is just coincidence?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdjpy d1 16.1.2010.gif Size: 40 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdjpy w1 16.1.2010.gif Size: 38 KB
  • #2,163
  • Jan 16, 2010 3:50pm Jan 16, 2010 3:50pm
Quoting Custos
Hi NM,

still working on my little experiment, and I was thinking of how to get a clearer target level.
I was looking now into I think 10 to 15 pinbars (which worked out) on the charts. And all of them moved to the higher time-frames last bar low / high at least.

That means, if we have a bearish pinbar on the daily, I will look at my weekly chart and look where the low of the last weekly bar was and put my target above that last weekly bar low (so that we stay conservative). Does that make sense and what do you think about that approach?

As...
Actually it looks like that might be a pattern that might be consistent enough to try. It is worth a try if it works out several times then we can determine the accuracy of that target method.

--NM
  • #2,164
  • Jan 16, 2010 9:57pm Jan 16, 2010 9:57pm
Quoting Custos
Pairs I watch for the upcoming week

GBP/CAD short
AUD/USD long
EUR/AUD short
USD/JPY short
USD/CAD short
EUR/CAD short
EUR/CHF short
NZD/USD long
NZD/JPY long
Back onto this thread. Had a look at the above charts and tried to calculate the breakout to see if I understand some of this. Can you let me know if I'm close or not.

AUD/USD breakout - .9330
EUR/AUD breakout - 1.5535
USD/JPY breakout - 90.60
USD/CAD breakout - 1.0025
EUR/CAD breakout - 1.4715
EUR/CHF breakout - 1.4740
NZD/USD breakout - .7400
NZD/JPY breakout - 67.50
  • #2,165
  • Jan 17, 2010 1:20am Jan 17, 2010 1:20am
hello peeps, just would like to share a fundamental view on u/j .. dont let it influence u, just something to take note if we see some strong support point during the "possible" down move of u/j ..

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...dpSl6M3E&pos=2
  • #2,166
  • Jan 17, 2010 1:22am Jan 17, 2010 1:22am
Quoting MysticaL8e4r
hello peeps, just would like to share a fundamental view on u/j .. dont let it influence u, just something to take note if we see some strong support point during the "possible" down move of u/j ..

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...dpSl6M3E&pos=2
only see the link if i quote
It's my price or no price at all!
  • #2,167
  • Jan 17, 2010 1:28am Jan 17, 2010 1:28am
Quoting Scratch99
Back onto this thread. Had a look at the above charts and tried to calculate the breakout to see if I understand some of this. Can you let me know if I'm close or not.

AUD/USD breakout - .9330
EUR/AUD breakout - 1.5535
USD/JPY breakout - 90.60
USD/CAD breakout - 1.0025
EUR/CAD breakout - 1.4715
EUR/CHF breakout - 1.4740
NZD/USD breakout - .7400
NZD/JPY breakout - 67.50
yeah, the breakout points are pretty alright, except for the following pairs

nzd/jpy - 68.65 (breakout of the range formed on daily)
eur/chf - 1.4725 (breakout of the range formed on h4)
usd/cad - 1.0265 (I see that as a swing trade on h4 chart and hope the retracement trendline breaks at that point)
  • #2,168
  • Jan 17, 2010 10:40am Jan 17, 2010 10:40am
Another pair I am looking into is cad/chf as a counter trend setup. waiting for a break of the 0.9950 level.

Actually there are some pairs I mentioned also good for a counter trend setup, but for the sake of this thread, I will rather post the ones that trigger in the direction of the trend cause they have a higher probability.
  • #2,169
  • Jan 17, 2010 11:47am Jan 17, 2010 11:47am
Thanks for the reply Custos.

Now when the breakout occurs we still have to wait for retrace then then continuation 1-2-3, correct? In some cases this could be a long wait.
  • #2,170
  • Jan 17, 2010 12:10pm Jan 17, 2010 12:10pm
Quoting Scratch99
Thanks for the reply Custos.

Now when the breakout occurs we still have to wait for retrace then then continuation 1-2-3, correct? In some cases this could be a long wait.
exactly. Well, trading should be a waiting game. You wanna be a sniper and only take action when everything is perfect, NOT rambo and just shoot the whole place down (taking each and every single setup) cause then the market will get you. Sorry for the bad analogy.

By the way, I changed my outlook for eur/aud. I missed a trendline on the weekly which is right below eur/aud. I would want price to break that channel line as well. So, no action till then.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud w1 17.1.2010.gif Size: 43 KB
  • #2,171
  • Jan 17, 2010 3:26pm Jan 17, 2010 3:26pm
Quoting Custos
Pairs I watch for the upcoming week

GBP/CAD short
AUD/USD long - double top on the daily
EUR/AUD short
USD/JPY short
USD/CAD short - double bottom on daily
EUR/CAD short - pin bar-ish retracement from the low of since sept 09
EUR/CHF short
NZD/USD long
NZD/JPY long
Custos, my comments on some of these pairs. curious on why you would go long/short on those pairs?
  • #2,172
  • Jan 17, 2010 3:42pm Jan 17, 2010 3:42pm
Quoting coolshades
Custos, my comments on some of these pairs. curious on why you would go long/short on those pairs?
AUD/USD long - double top on the daily
EUR/CAD short - pin bar-ish retracement from the low of since sept 09
USD/CAD short - double bottom on daily

I will of course not just go blindly long or short. Attached is how I see those three pairs. Just pay attention to the red lines there.
aud/usd has formed a triangle and I am waiting for a break to the upside. eur/cad waiting for a break below your pin-bar.
usd/cad, as you pointed out it made a kind of double bottom and I am waiting for it to break below that.

When I say I will watch those pairs for longs and shorts, I mean that they are close to getting triggered or close to getting any bias on the higher time-frames.
This doesn't mean at all that I will just enter a blind short or long trade on monday.

makes sense?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: overview 17.1.2010.gif Size: 76 KB
  • #2,173
  • Jan 17, 2010 5:45pm Jan 17, 2010 5:45pm
Quoting Scratch99
Thanks for the reply Custos.

Now when the breakout occurs we still have to wait for retrace then then continuation 1-2-3, correct? In some cases this could be a long wait.
Good Point Sratch99 - but as we enter off the shorter time frames those 123s can happen fairly quickly. Again wait, wait, wait.

Also there is very little Asian news this week but a lot of European, GB and US news so these could be points to watch for triggers too.
  • #2,174
  • Jan 17, 2010 6:06pm Jan 17, 2010 6:06pm
Quoting Custos
Pairs I watch for the upcoming week

GBP/CAD short
AUD/USD long
EUR/AUD short
USD/JPY short
USD/CAD short
EUR/CAD short
EUR/CHF short
NZD/USD long
NZD/JPY long
On the EUR/AUD is it a short when it violates the double bottom on the 4H?

http://www.biggerbids.com/members/im...screenshot.jpg

  • #2,175
  • Jan 18, 2010 1:26am Jan 18, 2010 1:26am
Quoting Pip Dawg
On the EUR/AUD is it a short when it violates the double bottom on the 4H?
As I mentioned a couple of posts earlier, I changed my outlook for eur/aud to not tradable for the moment. I found a trendline it still has to go through on the weekly.
But, just for the sake of discussion, let's just assume that this weekly trendline is not there. In general, I would wait for it to break the S/R level from the monthly chart (which coincides with your double bottom on the H4). Then once it broke that S/R level that pair starts to become tradable to the downside, and I can look into the shorter time-frames to find setups for short opportunities. (still not entering any shorts until I find a setup on the lower timeframes daily, h4, h1).
Maybe I should make some charts next time so it's clearer for you guys what I want price to do, and when to start looking for short/long setups.

does this make sense?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud w1 18.1.2010.gif Size: 43 KB
  • #2,176
  • Jan 18, 2010 2:43am Jan 18, 2010 2:43am
Just remembered - FEDERAL HOLIDAY TODAY (ML King)
Back to bed for me!
  • #2,177
  • Jan 18, 2010 3:48am Jan 18, 2010 3:48am
Could someone please show me a current screen shot of the trend indicator. Mine is making problems again.

as you can see...so many zeros
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad.gif Size: 12 KB
It's my price or no price at all!
  • #2,178
  • Jan 18, 2010 4:02am Jan 18, 2010 4:02am
Mt indicator only shows trend, but it still does not match yours
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: db.gif Size: 12 KB
  • #2,179
  • Jan 18, 2010 4:29am Jan 18, 2010 4:29am
Quoting dpowli
Mt indicator only shows trend, but it still does not match yours

tnx

c private
It's my price or no price at all!
  • #2,180
  • Jan 18, 2010 5:23am Jan 18, 2010 5:23am
I'm watching these two pairs:

USD/CAD 4H
GBP/USD 4H

The second pair can be drawn with channel or with triangle.

I have drawn in my prediction what trajectory is concerned.

Remember guys, I'm new to this system. I'm just trying to implement what NM has been suggesting and I'm at the fourth chapter of Hector's course.

Comments are welcome pos or neg
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad.jpg Size: 63 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.jpg Size: 75 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd2.jpg Size: 74 KB
It's my price or no price at all!
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