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  • #9,261
  • Jan 16, 2010 3:21pm Jan 16, 2010 3:21pm
Quoting forexpiet
Big Boss: the december bar is a BUEB which confirmd a double bottom.
Boss: Last week is a (hammer. The bar is about equal size compared to the the previous down bars.
Worker: After three inside bars it broke out to the upside.

I would like to see it brake the Daily resistance at 1.028ish but was eager to put in an order above Fridays bar.

What do you think?
Big Boss: the december bar is a BUEB which confirmed a double bottom.


Correct AND a swing low.

Boss: Last week is a hammer. The bar is about equal size compared to the previous down bars.


That is NOT a Hammer on your data – it is a doji – meaning indecision or a pause.

The BOSS is now in consolidation between 1.0100 and 1.0500

Worker: After three inside bars it broke out to the upside.

And is bouncing off 1.0265 Worker R AND the 20 AND the 50

I would like to see it break the Daily resistance at 1.028ish but was eager to put in an order above Fridays bar.

You are eager to blow your account! NEVER be “eager” to trade.

Only trade when you SEE the opportunity
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,262
  • Jan 16, 2010 5:47pm Jan 16, 2010 5:47pm
Quoting strat
For those of us long with multiple positions, you need to think about protecting or taking profit on some (or all) as we approach resistance, the TL and psycho 1.6400.
Posted January 14, 2010

Approaching resistance, TL and psycho 1.6400

For those of us long with multiple positions, you need to think about protecting or taking profit on some (or all) as we approach resistance, the TL and psycho 1.6400.

And here is what happened the following day, January 15, 2010
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd the next day.gif Size: 34 KB
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,263
  • Jan 16, 2010 7:04pm Jan 16, 2010 7:04pm
Hi All,

USDCHF:

1.0165 is now prove to be a good support level but price did not give us a chance to get in. I will take note at this level and when price comes back to it, will see what price does. I will also take note at 1.0050-1.0100 support level and also confuence with 78.6% from the swing up.
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  • #9,264
  • Jan 17, 2010 6:08am Jan 17, 2010 6:08am
Quoting strat
Posted January 14, 2010

Approaching resistance, TL and psycho 1.6400
For those of us long with multiple positions, you need to think about protecting or taking profit on some (or all) as we approach resistance, the TL and psycho 1.6400.

And here is what happened the following day, January 15, 2010
Nice call, I can say it made me tighten my stops on my existing long. Quite happy with the outcome.
  • #9,265
  • Jan 17, 2010 6:11am Jan 17, 2010 6:11am
Quoting strat
Attached is a chart of GBPJPY as at 12:25am PST (added for Wheelz)

On it I have drawn 2 trend lines - two very simple straight lines that tell us SO MUCH!

TRADING REALLY IS SIMPLE!
Hello Strat and other senior members.

I hope you don't mind me going back in time but I am still only at pg 59 of this wonderful thread.

Whilst I get that trading should be simple and the hard part being controling ones emotions.
Your trend lines being broken, and finding support on the 20 and 50

What was the lesson? Do I over complicate it, I look at the inverted H&S, the HH and HL and would need PA to break the Boss 20, I see that as resistance as well as see resistance @ 140.20, and finally need this last leg to make a new HH.

Please advise on the lesson I'm missing and if I should no go back in the past with regards questions.

thanks
Frank
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #9,266
  • Jan 17, 2010 6:57am Jan 17, 2010 6:57am
Quoting Alexandra
As I have stated (how many times?!) I believe fundamentally that Japan needs a weaker currency. Looking back to 1/1/09 until now USDJPY is actually higher (shock!!), and I like the look of the monthly chart

Admittedly, I began buying USDJPY early before all the technical swere supportive (and noted so on the thread), but using some of Lou's discipline , the volitility has allowed consistent profit by selective trade placement at Strat's solid PA points. I now believe, based on the monthly chart, that it is time for that trade to become a trend-follower,...
Hi Alexandra,

I agree with your analysis, I am also long in the USDJPY after it hit 85 back in Nov 09. Not so much that Japan needs a weaker Yen, they do in order to help their export based economy, but the fact that the carry trade has been the dominant force in the major trend since April 09 and it's been funded by the USD because of the near 0 interest rates. This is why the USD has been so weak and we've seen new highs in Gold, Oil, and other commodities as well as the huge runs in AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD and the Brazilian Real.

But now the US economy is recovering faster than JP and there is a very high probability that the Fed will raise rates before the BoJ, causing a shift in carry trade funding from USD to JPY. So I anticipating all the JPY crosses to make the biggest gains in 2010.

The only thing that can stop the long term trend change in USDJPY is if there is dismal economic data from the US, otherwise the fundamental economic forces seem to be shifting.

Cheers,
Razorjack
-Razorjack
  • #9,267
  • Jan 17, 2010 8:48am Jan 17, 2010 8:48am
Quoting Money Magnet
Hello Strat and other senior members.

I hope you don't mind me going back in time but I am still only at pg 59 of this wonderful thread.

Whilst I get that trading should be simple and the hard part being controling ones emotions.
Your trend lines being broken, and finding support on the 20 and 50

What was the lesson? Do I over complicate it, I look at the inverted H&S, the HH and HL and would need PA to break the Boss 20, I see that as resistance as well as see resistance @ 140.20, and finally need this last leg to make a new HH.

Please...
The emphasis on this is on the TLs. What do you get from those TLs?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,268
  • Jan 17, 2010 11:39am Jan 17, 2010 11:39am
Strat, do you close/open your positions or change them during the course of day or all your activity is at the end of day? I ask because when I traded on daily charts I could not resist to change, modify, close and open new position during the day and that resulted in bad trades or prematurely closing of winning trades.
Thanks
Yeti
  • #9,269
  • Jan 17, 2010 11:58am Jan 17, 2010 11:58am
I can see that everyone is excited to trade this pair long, but the boss would give me a lot of pause, that does not look like an invitation to go against the trend just yet.

On another subject, the GBPUSD long that I took was stopped at B/E after Strat cautioned us about the possible pull back, thanks for that from me as well, although I was not one of those with multiple entries as you know.

At the moment I see very little opportunity on the pairs that I am looking at (top 11 tradeable pairs per Strat) except EURCAD still looks interesting, but which way will PA go? monday may tell.

Larry
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #9,270
  • Jan 17, 2010 12:05pm Jan 17, 2010 12:05pm
Quoting Yeti
Strat, do you close/open your positions or change them during the course of day or all your activity is at the end of day? I ask because when I traded on daily charts I could not resist to change, modify, close and open new position during the day and that resulted in bad trades or prematurely closing of winning trades.
Thanks
Yeti
If you have read the thread carefully you will realise that we place stop orders at appropriate levels after the close of the daily candle and then do nothing until the close the next day. You have to plan your trade and then trade your plan. The plan will not include intraday adjustments, not until you have progressed to some advanced level, if ever.

Keep reading, understand what you read, it is worth the effort.

Larry
  • #9,271
  • Jan 17, 2010 12:57pm Jan 17, 2010 12:57pm
Quoting LarryK
At the moment I see very little opportunity on the pairs that I am looking at (top 11 tradeable pairs per Strat) except EURCAD still looks interesting, but which way will PA go? monday may tell.

Larry
Nice SR lines, Larry.
  • #9,272
  • Jan 17, 2010 12:57pm Jan 17, 2010 12:57pm
Quoting Yeti
Strat, do you close/open your positions or change them during the course of day or all your activity is at the end of day? I ask because when I traded on daily charts I could not resist to change, modify, close and open new position during the day and that resulted in bad trades or prematurely closing of winning trades.
Thanks
Yeti
Strat, do you close/open your positions or change them during the course of day or all your activity is at the end of day?

I ask because when I traded on daily charts I could not resist to change, modify, close and open new position during the day and that resulted in bad trades or prematurely closing of winning trades.

That’s because you’re treating trading as a game and have NO patience and discipline.

This thread is for students who are serious in learning to TRADE FOR A LIVING.

Serious, committed and determined students would have gone to the FIRST page to check the intent of the thread instead of jumping in half cocked on Page 618 of a mature and successful thread and asking basic fundamental questions.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,273
  • Jan 17, 2010 1:20pm Jan 17, 2010 1:20pm
Hey Strat.
There has been a lot of discussion regarding the EURCAD, what are your thoughts?
  • #9,274
  • Jan 17, 2010 1:45pm Jan 17, 2010 1:45pm
Quoting pipfx
Hey Strat.
There has been a lot of discussion regarding the EURCAD, what are your thoughts?
None - I'm waiting for the BIG BOSS and BOSS to show me the way
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,275
  • Jan 17, 2010 1:55pm Jan 17, 2010 1:55pm
No NY trading tomorrow as it is a US Bank Holiday. As a result, a big chunk of forex trading is missing so if you trade, beware of thin markets and low liquidity.

If you have open positions, you may want to tighten stops to protect positions.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,276
  • Jan 17, 2010 5:25pm Jan 17, 2010 5:25pm
Quoting hcristea
Thanks Strat for commenting my previous post.

USDCAD closed as an IB at SR. Could this be the silence before the storm? That IB is no reversal sign but only a pause.

Monday, the US banks are closed. Shall we expect high volatility on low volume withouth US Banks participation or another pause here at the SR?

Attachment
Hi Hcristea,

We know that USDCAD is hitting major support but we are not in the hurry to jump in yet. I see the immediate resistance at 1.0450. I see the patterns that she tried to reverse twice. May the third attemp success? I will let price moves first leg up to 1.0450-0700 and will see what happen. I know we will miss a lot of pips but we are not trying to pick bottom.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #9,277
  • Jan 17, 2010 6:50pm Jan 17, 2010 6:50pm
Picking tops and bottoms is the fastest way to LOSE your account. Leave this to those who can do it or those that think they can do it but really can't.

When we lock on to trends, the amount of pips at the top and bottom are peanuts compared to what we make during the trend.

Remember, I am only interested in the "meat" of the trend - the SAFEST, LOWEST RISK part.

As for trend change, I need to see controlling swings being taken out at least on the BOSS but more powerful if also on the BIG BOSS.

If we can do this with funny mentals on our side then we have a "Ticket to Ride" (Beatles 1964)
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,278
  • Edited 10:58pm Jan 17, 2010 10:18pm | Edited 10:58pm
Quoting Razorjack
Hi Alexandra,

I agree with your analysis, I am also long in the USDJPY after it hit 85 back in Nov 09. Not so much that Japan needs a weaker Yen, they do in order to help their export based economy, but the fact that the carry trade has been the dominant force in the major trend since April 09 and it's been funded by the USD because of the near...
Well, it's nice to have some company for once! (Perhaps I should reconsider my position )

I remember several years ago throwing out the ridiculous statement to a collegue that perhaps Yen would become the favored currency, in a joking fashion based on a long term chart review. I didn't believe it then either, so don't think for a second that I bought the bottom. (Incidentaly, that goes to the new predilection for prediction seen on the thread recently - read "You don't need to do it!!" In other words, we did just fine waiting for the trend to slap us in the face). That sense, however, did prove correct, and in my view underlies the recent movement. Risk aversion, in your words, which is now reversing. Japan finds itself in a now unenviable position compromising its economy globally, though not necessarily regionally.

The Carry argument is interesting debate. I threw out that comment on the Hang Seng chart Friday to illustrate what many have called the "new Carry," in that USD sellers are placing those assets in emerging market investments. I was hoping you would grab that one. Watching the Hang Seng, then, may be the ultimate correlation indicator to indicate a shift in this new influence on USD shorts. More practically, perhaps it will aid our assessment of long USDJPY, to determine if our early entry is correct and place the PA in proper context.

I do think ecomonic fundamentals are driving the AUD and NZD pairs, and the Loonie.

All in all then, a nice fundamental flavor does add sustainability to those of us who trade PA with a very long term horizon. The corollary, though, is that one can be burned if large fundamental blocks are emphasized too much over technicals. Technical movements do occur and must be respected rather than scorned. I aways have in the back of my mind that, despite my fundamental view, the current charts have supported USDJPY at 50 for some time. But again....I don't believe it.....hmmmmm. Witness, the fundamental can frame one's technical trading - hopefully with good results.

Practical questions of the day:

So where is the slap point on USDJPY??

Are fundamentals reflected in the Monthly charts (in general)??
  • #9,279
  • Jan 18, 2010 1:48am Jan 18, 2010 1:48am
Well, it's nice to have some company for once! (Perhaps I should reconsider my position )

Yeah, I find myself pretty lonely at times as well.

I remember several years ago throwing out the ridiculous statement to a collegue that perhaps Yen would become the favored currency, in a joking fashion based on a long term chart review. I didn't believe it then either, so don't think for a second that I bought the bottom. (Incidentaly, that goes to the new predilection for prediction seen on the thread recently - read "You don't need to do it!!" In other words, we did just fine waiting for the trend to slap us in the face). That sense, however, did prove correct, and in my view underlies the recent movement. Risk aversion, in your words, which is now reversing. Japan finds itself in a now unenviable position compromising its economy globally, though not necessarily regionally.

Actually, I never mentioned Risk Aversion. I believe that we're still in a phase of Risk Appetite and have been for some time now. The big scare was the Dubai Debt Crisis on Nov 25-27 '09, which caused an initial panic towards risk aversion but was then contained. So my view isn't that Risk Aversion is reversing.

My view is that we've been in Risk Appetite mode since April 2009 and that the carry trade funded by USD has been the dominant force, which is why we have seen incredible USD weakness. This is because the USD has had lower interest rates than Japan as a result of the economic crisis. But now there is a very good probability that the Fed will hike interest rates this year. BoJ will have to wait several years before making any significant rate hikes, their national deficit is 200% GDP and growing! This will shift the carry trade funding over from USD to JPY.

There is evidence of this after the release of the NFP numbers on Dec 4. Compare AUDUSD with AUDJPY to see how they reacted in opposite directions. The USD carry trades unwound while the JPY crosses shot upwards, this is because markets factored in the future rate hikes in the prices.

The Carry argument is interesting debate. I threw out that comment on the Hang Seng chart Friday to illustrate what many have called the "new Carry," in that USD sellers are placing those assets in emerging market investments. I was hoping you would grab that one. Watching the Hang Seng, then, may be the ultimate correlation indicator to indicate a shift in this new influence on USD shorts. More practically, perhaps it will aid our assessment of long USDJPY, to determine if our early entry is correct and place the PA in proper context.

To me the Carry Trade is much bigger than what most people on this forum think. And yes, I believe that USD sellers have been investing not only in currencies but commodities as well as emerging economies because the USD has been so cheap.

To me it's as clear as day, in terms of risk appetite the carry trade is the single largest dominant force in the markets when there are low interest rates. The only thing that would change this is if the JP economy were in good enough shape to make equities more of a bargain, but this hasn't been the case.

I do think ecomonic fundamentals are driving the AUD and NZD pairs, and the Loonie.

Yes, agreed. However AUDUSD and USDCAD are overstretched in the long term and will need a correction before continuing the 2nd leg in the upwards trend. My stats tell me that the AUDUSD run from April - Dec 09 is greater than 96% of all other long term swings, basically giving it a 4% chance of continuing upwards and would require a correction down to a level of 0.87 or lower. The USDCAD run from April - Dec '09 is at 91%, giving a 9% chance of a new lower low and requires a correction to 1.0850 or higher.

All in all then, a nice fundamental flavor does add sustainability to those of us who trade PA with a very long term horizon. The corollary, though, is that one can be burned if large fundamental blocks are emphasized too much over technicals. Technical movements do occur and must be respected rather than scorned. I aways have in the back of my mind that, despite my fundamental view, the current charts have supported USDJPY at 50 for some time. But again....I don't believe it.....hmmmmm. Witness, the fundamental can frame one's technical trading - hopefully with good results.

Yes, agreed. I always trade what the charts are telling me, but use long term fundamentals to give me a compass on what's coming up. So I tend to recognize market swings before they happen, because I've been waiting for the fundamentals to be reflected in the charts. For instance I've been waiting for a major correction in AUDUSD since Oct '09, it finally came in Nov triggered by the Dubai Crisis. And I made a substantial amount during that time!

Practical questions of the day:

So where is the slap point on USDJPY??

This is different for every trader, for me the slap point was Dec 4th and the way the market reacted to the NFP numbers. For traders trading Strats system, I assume it would be when there is a significant break above the Boss and possibly even the Big Boss.

Are fundamentals reflected in the Monthly charts (in general)??

I believe that fundamentals are reflected in in all time frames. There are times when the markets will move in the opposite direction than what the fundamentals indicate, but it is impossible to sustain the move because eventually the fundamental economic forces do impact the market.

Case in point: The USD index tanked ever since the USD was the preferred currency for funding carry trades and no one could see a bottom in sight. However there is a point where the USD would get so cheap that it would make more business sense to invest in American equities, business, etc because of how cheap the USD was and that there was a greater reward to risk ratio than the carry trade. You can also see evidence of this in the long term asset purchases in the US during that time. Before the money was flowing out of the US, but now we're seeing more and more of it flow into the US. And the better the US eco data numbers the faster the money will flow back into the US.

Good discussion!

-Razorjack
-Razorjack
  • #9,280
  • Jan 18, 2010 3:02am Jan 18, 2010 3:02am
Quoting strat
Picking tops and bottoms is the fastest way to LOSE your account. Leave this to those who can do it or those that think they can do it but really can't.

When we lock on to trends, the amount of pips at the top and bottom are peanuts compared to what we make during the trend.

Remember, I am only interested in the "meat" of the trend - the SAFEST, LOWEST RISK part.

As for trend change, I need to see controlling swings being taken out at least on the BOSS but more powerful if also on the BIG BOSS.

If we can do this with funny mentals...
Thanks Strat for the clear and value pip to my pocket. I will save your pips for exchange market pips later.
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