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Stop fooling yourself; There is no system

  • #201
  • Jan 15, 2010 1:28pm Jan 15, 2010 1:28pm
Quoting Craig
It's good to see you have finally realized that Fibonacci ratios as applied by 99% (actually make that 100% ) of people here are brain dead, but the above statement is demonstrably not true, I know highly successful traders (profitable for 10 years+) who simply trade off price charts (and conversely others who don't even look at charts).
If they are successfully trading off of charts and PA alone, then they are really good guessers. Some are better guessers than others, but I bet those guys are supplementing what they see on their charts with objective information, not just naked price. Even if they've developed a sense for the market that few have, they are still in the guessing arena. And all the power to them if they can do it consistently.

I don't have a hard time believing that the off chart guys are doing well.
  • #202
  • Jan 15, 2010 1:29pm Jan 15, 2010 1:29pm
Quoting Intensity
He came back yesterday and dug out this thread out of Forex Factory's graveyard
Post 159 : http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=159
Thanks Intensity - I hate the fact that he was right about one thing - no trillionaires yet. - lol. I would have loved to laugh in his face from some posh resort - alas - I keep on trying though. Thanks again .
FF = Forex Faggots
  • #203
  • Jan 15, 2010 1:43pm Jan 15, 2010 1:43pm
Quoting Scotty B
If they are successfully trading off of charts and PA alone, then they are really good guessers. Some are better guessers than others, but I bet those guys are supplementing what they see on their charts with objective information, not just naked price. Even if they've developed a sense for the market that few have, they are still in the guessing arena. And all the power to them if they can do it consistently.

I don't have a hard time believing that the off chart guys are doing well.
The last thing these guys are is guessers, this is worth thinking about as I am providing you with objective and useful information (as much as you can trust some guy you don't know on the internet) which you are choosing to dismiss (as you are free to do). There is no one way in this game, some people trade 100% automated TA and make a killing, dismissing it as guessing or luck will not change this fact.
The breaking of a wave cannot explain the whole sea.
  • #204
  • Jan 15, 2010 1:53pm Jan 15, 2010 1:53pm
Quoting Craig
The last thing these guys are is guessers, this is worth thinking about as I am providing you with objective and useful information (as much as you can trust some guy you don't know on the internet) which you are choosing to dismiss (as you are free to do). There is no one way in this game, some people trade 100% automated TA and make a killing, dismissing it as guessing or luck will not change this fact.
Neither of us have provided any sound objective information. We're just talking heads here. It would do neither of us any good to beleive one another. It is not useful to me to know that you know someone who makes money via TA.
  • #205
  • Jan 15, 2010 2:53pm Jan 15, 2010 2:53pm
Quoting Scotty B
If they are successfully trading off of charts and PA alone, then they are really good guessers. Some are better guessers than others, but I bet those guys are supplementing what they see on their charts with objective information, not just naked price. Even if they've developed a sense for the market that few have, they are still in the guessing arena. And all the power to them if they can do it consistently.

I don't have a hard time believing that the off chart guys are doing well.
Hi Scotty B,

Are you saying then that you don't believe in technical analysis?

What about those who trade with the trend... and I mean trend not intraday noise? Is it not possible for those people to make money from the market?

I don't consider myself to be in the guessing arena. I see the chart as a representation of the market place (obviously!) - buyers and sellers. A trend takes place because overall there is more of one than the other. So then, does it not make sense to trade in the direction of the established and proven trend?

I know in most cases though retail traders don't follow the trend. They are always trying to pick tops and bottoms... which in my opinion is why so many fail.

Just my thoughts on the matter.

Regards,

Dan
  • #206
  • Jan 15, 2010 9:54pm Jan 15, 2010 9:54pm
My trading is fully automated and I do very well. The great thing is you have no emotions to work with the EA just does what it's programed to do. However I never just set and forget I watch my trades and will interviene if I feel I need to but most of the time I just let the EA do it's thing.
However beware of the commercial crap that is out there basically most all of it came off Forex forums where guys made it for free and some sale guy took the mq4 file and renamed it or he simply decompiled the ex4 file and renamed it.
Randy
One good turn gets most of the blankets.
  • #207
  • Jan 16, 2010 3:49am Jan 16, 2010 3:49am
I disagree that Forex is gambling. I am different from Randy in that my trades are manual and I use the fundamental economic news/events and the latest market sentiment/trend to time my trade.

I am not as good as Parisenne to have no losing trades in a year. Most of my wins are big winners with also losses which are small in amount compared to my wins. You just need to know the market sentiment regarding a currency and understand what major economic events are powering the moves. Then you use the TA to help you guide/time your entry, the so call buy dip and sell rally thingie (using Fib% or support/resistance or trend lines). As long as you know where the major direction is going and why, and using TA to pick the most likely point of entry for a big move (while setting a smaller stop within 30-50 pips) in the direction of the trend move, then you cannot be too wrong.

For example, when trading CAD, oil price is the main driving engine. So when oil boomed on its way to $150/barrel, CAD killed USD in the process. When oil retreated, you just need to short it every time it rallies to a major resistence level. Give another example, when UK had its first GDP contraction in 30 years, you know what the currency would do. The move could be in 1000 pips range for such kind of major news. You can' be wrong in shorting it at any resistance of rally top (such as 50 or 61.8% fib level of any retracement). How about the subprime news. When it first hit, USD took the toll. And when the banks & big firms started failing, then it got really bad. The sentiment was definitely bearish for USD. Then when it got so bad, it spreaded to European banks. Then all of a sudden, the sentiment shifted to risk aversion - Euro and the member states are not as safe as a single entity currency like USD. People were in doubt if the European Union could survive the economic tsunami. So EUR as well as GPB fell like hot cake. Then when the world's economy is in turmoil, all those commodity currencies like AUD, NZD, CAD who depend on exporting their products to industrialized countries are also hurting, as most purchasing managers are cutting back on inventories.

These major economic factors can affect the market and currency movements for months if not years. Trading this way you are not gambling like tossing the coin for the move in the next minute or hour. You have plenty of time to analyse and to pick your entry at the most advantageous point.

I am not even a full time trader (I own a software firm) but trading this way has a lot less risk. My return in the subprime crash period is high compared what you get from your bank. If I say it was over 1000% return, would you believe me or cream me. But who cares. I know what I achieved. But why would I lie here as I seldom came here to post or to boast. But I am no newbie to Forex trading, having traded as a hobby for 8+ years. I am here like others only to point out that Forex is no gambling, as the major pattern/trend is easily explainable from the major economic factors. We just need to find good commentary sites and read them up (like Dailyfx.com or Thomson Forex Market Watch) or watch Bloomberg.

Good luck and happy trading.
  • #208
  • Jan 16, 2010 4:00am Jan 16, 2010 4:00am
Quoting Craig
One has to be careful with semantics here as the general statement is not strictly true, one can setup edges in random walks depending on what type of random walk it is........
Fair enough, your knowledge of math is superior to mine. All I'm saying is that I don't believe that it's possible to predict the toss of a fair coin in such a way as to provide an edge. Hopefully that's a fairly safe statement.
______________________

Quoting Scotty B
Trading based on what you see on a price chart alone is suicide. So in that sense, no there is no system like that that will work.........
Scotty, this seems to almost conflict with the "just a little more" in your statement below.

Quoting Scotty B
....... You need just a little more than a price chart. I don't know what Darkstar and the other orderflow guys are doing, but if they are staring at the tape, mkt depth, and bothering friends who work at banks, they are wasting lots of time........
I'm not trying to nit-pick. I'm just very curious as to what the 'little more' might be, as you might expect, LOL.

No disrespect intended – I've become a very keen reader of your posts – but I think it's precarious to assume that just because one person hasn't found a way of succeeding using TA, that nobody else can possibly do so either, if in fact that's what you mean by "guessing". For example, James16 seems to have been guessing profitably for many years. I realize that you've recently made an exciting discovery, that (if I understand correctly) somehow relates to the psychology behind the charts that generates the orderflow. But just because you now have a superior edge than TA might be capable of delivering, it doesn't necessarily follow that TA is completely impotent.

I believe that, while TA doesn't allow price movement probabilities to be calculated with any exactness, it's nonetheless possible to use 'abstracts' like trend direction, key S/R levels, and momentum, along with proficient trade management, to obtain a decent 'edge'. There are chart patterns in threads like this one that recur with some frequency. We can also, for example, use the fact that price behaves differently around key S/R levels (presumably due to orderflow?), and devise a method of exploiting this, on balance of probability, as (for example) BillyRayValentine has.

I'm very keen to understand a little more where you're coming from.
  • #209
  • Jan 16, 2010 5:29am Jan 16, 2010 5:29am
Quoting hanover
Fair enough, your knowledge of math is superior to mine. All I'm saying is that I don't believe that it's possible to predict the toss of a fair coin in such a way as to provide an edge. Hopefully that's a fairly safe statement.
______________________



Scotty, this seems to almost conflict with the "just a little more" in your statement below.



I'm not trying to nit-pick. I'm just very curious as to what the 'little more' might be, as you might expect, LOL.

No disrespect intended – I've become a very keen reader of...
Hanover,

I sent you a PM to in response to your post.
  • #210
  • Jan 16, 2010 7:09am Jan 16, 2010 7:09am
What's wrong with explaining yourself here? It all makes for interesting discussion no-one will hate

fxbillie great post.. I'm glad you cashed in on the obvious periods of the market!
  • #211
  • Jan 16, 2010 11:44am Jan 16, 2010 11:44am
Quoting hanover
Fair enough, your knowledge of math is superior to mine. All I'm saying is that I don't believe that it's possible to predict the toss of a fair coin in such a way as to provide an edge. Hopefully that's a fairly safe statement.
This is true, this difference is why we can have an entry edge in 'noise' which doesn't exist in a coin toss, I don't want to belabor this point but it is really worth thinking about, is the market Gaussian, if not can we make it Gaussian? (or nearly Gaussian). The math is not complex, just basic stats. I think I've said enough now
The breaking of a wave cannot explain the whole sea.
  • #212
  • Jan 16, 2010 3:47pm Jan 16, 2010 3:47pm
Quoting Vlad
And there is no one who knows how to trade. If there was, W. Buffet would be his butler and Bill Gates his foot chair. 5% per month, which many "traders" find to be laughable, make 1 trillion dollars out of $50 in less than 40 years. Unless you are a fat rat from a Federal reserve with insider's info, trading is glorified gambling no more and no less. Only ones who win are those who are lucky and quit early. Sorry.
I'm sorry you've lost your money. However, it is obvious that you are not a trader and do not have a trader's attitude.
So... please just go back to your 9 - 5 mentality and don't put your negative mindset on the rest of us.

We... (who are making money) know there is no better way.
  • #213
  • Jan 16, 2010 6:37pm Jan 16, 2010 6:37pm
not all traders lost their money....the success to those traders who are taking care of their money management, right strategies and discipline.
  • #214
  • Jan 17, 2010 7:27am Jan 17, 2010 7:27am
Good post of course I belive you trading Forex is not gambling but you can gamble trading Forex. It's really simple, most things in like are simple and we make then complex. First right out of the gate everyone has a 50/50 chance of picking the direction of profit not 45/55,4951 but 50/50. Second we have the opportunity to find out all we want about the history of this trade, the fundamentals etc etc. These things we find out are known to cause movement in the market. Sofor your you will increase your odds of picking the winning trade. Once your at this point you have taken Forex out of the gambling business. Example you can know everything about the Roulette wheel. how many times balck tis, red hits, even know who made the wheel, the humidity in the room, how long the wheel has been spinning, how often the ball is changed, etc etc you can know all this but it will not increase your chances by even 1% but with Forex knowing all the information about a trade will.
Randy




Quoting fxbillie
I disagree that Forex is gambling. I am different from Randy in that my trades are manual and I use the fundamental economic news/events and the latest market sentiment/trend to time my trade.

I am not as good as Parisenne to have no losing trades in a year. Most of my wins are big winners with also losses which are small in amount compared to my wins. You just need to know the market sentiment regarding a currency and understand what major economic events are powering the moves. Then you use the TA to help you guide/time your entry, the so call...
One good turn gets most of the blankets.
  • #215
  • Jan 17, 2010 8:48am Jan 17, 2010 8:48am
There is a ribbon of intelligence that flows throughout the FX market. You cannot find it through traditional means such as indicators and trading systems. It takes a tremendous amount of hard work to uncover that ribbon. Why would a broken offer you thousands of "indicators" if they knew they could be used against them? As far as they're concerned...the more indicators, the better for them.
  • #216
  • Edited 9:46am Jan 17, 2010 9:23am | Edited 9:46am
Quoting Craig
This is true, this difference is why we can have an entry edge in 'noise' which doesn't exist in a coin toss, I don't want to belabor this point but it is really worth thinking about, is the market Gaussian, if not can we make it Gaussian? (or nearly Gaussian). The math is not complex, just basic stats. I think I've said enough now
For a long trade one would enter when the price is in the bottom half of its 'noise range', I think what you would be counting on is called mean reversion. Still, you would need to, by some method, be able to count on price moving to wards a point X (which was higher than the entry price) with reasonable probability; the probability needed depending on factors such as R:R.

I wish I had more time to study Maths.

Living the adventure in my head.
  • #217
  • Jan 17, 2010 12:16pm Jan 17, 2010 12:16pm
what we do know in forex that the one thing that is always guaranteed is price. without it, forex would not exist. so design your own trade plan around price and you'll be better off.

this guy must have did what everybody else said to do instead of figuring things out for yourself and just using parts of concepts that you understand and making it your own. it's the only way to survive in any day trading i learned, and not just forex.
  • #218
  • Jan 17, 2010 12:34pm Jan 17, 2010 12:34pm
Quoting hazelj80
what we do know in forex that the one thing that is always guaranteed is price. without it, forex would not exist. .
Please excuse my ignorance but what does that mean? The only way that price is guaranteed in forex is in the execution of limit orders. I don't think that is what you are referring to in this case though.
  • #219
  • Jan 17, 2010 12:44pm Jan 17, 2010 12:44pm
Quoting birdt
Please excuse my ignorance but what does that mean? The only way that price is guaranteed in forex is in the execution of limit orders. I don't think that is what you are referring to in this case though.
Price is just the equidistant lattice that the market exists and moves on. Limit orders enable prices to change, market orders make prices change. Price is the engine, limits are the gas, and market orders are the fire.

Edit..I suppose it would make more sense to say that market orders are the spark plugs...
  • #220
  • Jan 17, 2010 12:49pm Jan 17, 2010 12:49pm
Quoting TradeRunner
I'm sorry you've lost your money. However, it is obvious that you are not a trader and do not have a trader's attitude.
So... please just go back to your 9 - 5 mentality and don't put your negative mindset on the rest of us.

We... (who are making money) know there is no better way.
Actually this guy (Vlad) is on much more advanced stage than 99% of people here. Understanding that NOTHING works is not a beginning stage, it comes only after years of hard work and failing. Believing that the system works and defending it (defending ego actually) is a beginner's stage. Many famous scientists and other famous people accepted in the end that they knew nothing more than when they just embarked on the process of learning.
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