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  • #181
  • Jan 15, 2010 10:23am Jan 15, 2010 10:23am
Quoting Sim
Yeah great reply...typical 'oh u must not trade LOL' ...dumb idiot
No I asked if you look at the markets, I never said you did not trade.

If you want to explore new ideas i recommend you read Trading in the Zone by Mark Douglas. Many aspects I am trying to put up on my last posts I have learned from reading that book 6 times.

I am not looking to talk with you as your first post said it all.

Cheers
  • #182
  • Jan 15, 2010 10:26am Jan 15, 2010 10:26am
Quoting >Apocalypto<
No they don't. No matter what you may believe, even if you're right 99.9999% of the time the next trade no matter the trend or the system can guarantee you will be right on it. that's a fact of trading or investing. I trade a system, i tell myself that same every time I take a trade, helps to keep me clear, and keep my ego in line.
Ok. Perhaps I should have been a little more specific. When I talked of increasing my chance of winning I meant overall; the big picture. I accept and agree that any individual trade can go against you for (seemingly) no apparant reason.

Quoting >Apocalypto<
No one is arguing here, you questioned my post so now I am questioning your replies. I belive in signal trading i do it... but what I do live by and respect is the market does what it likes no matter what i think it will do. If this is the case then yes I do think it's random. But by the same token I think it's predictable cuz I trade set retracement signal patterns that make me profitable.

Good trading and respect to you for staying civil.
Let me just clarify this as well. I am not questioning your post - but in the "argument" that there is no system I don't believe that trading is akin to gambling (again I talk about the big picture here).

I hope that clears up any confusion about what my intentions are here!
  • #183
  • Jan 15, 2010 10:37am Jan 15, 2010 10:37am
Quoting DanUK
Ok. Perhaps I should have been a little more specific. When I talked of increasing my chance of winning I meant overall; the big picture. I accept and agree that any individual trade can go against you for (seemingly) no apparant reason.



Let me just clarify this as well. I am not questioning your post - but in the "argument" that there is no system I don't believe that trading is akin to gambling (again I talk about the big picture here).

I hope that clears up any confusion about what my intentions are here!
Dan you make sense to me, and I have really enjoyed our discussion.

Good Trading to you.
  • #184
  • Jan 15, 2010 10:39am Jan 15, 2010 10:39am
Keep also in mind the difference between roulette and trading: In trading you can change the "bet" after the starting point. You can take more positions or reduce them or close all of them any time. This is a great opportunity what is not possible in casinos.
  • #185
  • Jan 15, 2010 10:40am Jan 15, 2010 10:40am
Market maker: market is not random as the order book accounts for all the random spikes

Speculator: market is random in the way it spikes

You see now?
  • #186
  • Jan 15, 2010 10:44am Jan 15, 2010 10:44am
Quoting Sim
Market maker: market is not random as the order book accounts for all the random spikes

Speculator: market is random in the way it spikes

You see now?
LOL what is your definition of a market maker? I trade through Interactive Brokers with depth and bid ask volumes at price levels. I never made that phone call to IB

your example is childish and not relevant to what i am trying to communicate. Please go and read Trading in the Zone.
  • #187
  • Jan 15, 2010 10:45am Jan 15, 2010 10:45am
Quoting >Apocalypto<
roulette is not random
Roulette IS random (unless the wheel is biased). That (along with the zeros on the wheel) is how casinos make their profits.

Conversely, price movement is not completely random. Even Mark Douglas (whose books create misconceptions, IMO) says that "an edge is ..... an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another". If price movement was a random walk, then it would be impossible to attain an edge, and costs would ensure that every trader would eventually lose.
  • #188
  • Jan 15, 2010 10:49am Jan 15, 2010 10:49am
Quoting sap
Keep also in mind the difference between roulette and trading: In trading you can change the "bet" after the starting point. You can take more positions or reduce them or close all of them any time. This is a great opportunity what is not possible in casinos.
the outcome is random the process planed..... that's my take on trading.

My talk with dan is taking this off track.... I don't agree with Vlad. But I want to help people realize that trading like gambling has a random out come IMO.
  • #189
  • Edited 7:12pm Jan 15, 2010 10:53am | Edited 7:12pm
Quoting hanover
Roulette IS random (unless the wheel is biased). That (along with the zeros on the wheel) is how casinos make their profits.
Is it? the dealer at shifts start spins with a different amount of force to when they have settled into a rhythm 1 hour into there shift.....

Quote
Conversely, price movement is not completely random. Even Mark Douglas (whose books create misconceptions, IMO) says that "an edge is ..... an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another". If price movement was a random walk, then it would be impossible to attain an edge, and costs would ensure that every trader would eventually lose.
I don't believe price is random at all. I believe in trends I traded min charts for many months, cycles in the markets on all time frames. Mark put forward the idea that the out come to you is random not so much the market.

edge increases the probability of the out come to your mind, but it's still random. If we had no edge why would we trade at all? But no matter how good my edge is running at a particular time I still use a stoploss cuz the out come is random.

Cheers
  • #190
  • Jan 15, 2010 10:57am Jan 15, 2010 10:57am
there are fields of non-random price activity. An exploitable edge, if it in fact does exist in one of these fields, may be so small as to be undiscoverable by current backtesting technology due to historical data decay. Pippo
Vincit qui se vincit.
  • #191
  • Jan 15, 2010 11:13am Jan 15, 2010 11:13am
Quoting >Apocalypto<
Dan you make sense to me, and I have really enjoyed our discussion.

Good Trading to you.


Cheers!
  • #192
  • Jan 15, 2010 11:18am Jan 15, 2010 11:18am
Quoting hanover
Roulette IS random (unless the wheel is biased). That (along with the zeros on the wheel) is how casinos make their profits.

Conversely, price movement is not completely random. Even Mark Douglas (whose books create misconceptions, IMO) says that "an edge is ..... an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another". If price movement was a random walk, then it would be impossible to attain an edge, and costs would ensure that every trader would eventually lose.
Most logical reply!
  • #193
  • Jan 15, 2010 11:51am Jan 15, 2010 11:51am
i would like to share my system, its called PATIENCE, only about 5% of
full time traders use it...Try it.
  • #194
  • Jan 15, 2010 12:23pm Jan 15, 2010 12:23pm
Quoting hanover
Roulette IS random (unless the wheel is biased). That (along with the zeros on the wheel) is how casinos make their profits.

Conversely, price movement is not completely random. Even Mark Douglas (whose books create misconceptions, IMO) says that "an edge is ..... an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another". If price movement was a random walk, then it would be impossible to attain an edge, and costs would ensure that every trader would eventually lose.

Most market participants are just guessing when they trade. Most don't realize this. When you are reduced to guessing as your only system then the sad probabilities creep in. Every system publicly available on this site is glorified guessing. So yes, trading to the majority of participants is just gambling.

I've been militantly posting this stuff around here lately, but I myself was tainted by the kool aid that I am now shooting down. I threw away a lot of money by guessing all the time. Most of you know me as a Fibonacci guy, but in hindsight, I have to say even fibs are garbage. They offer a trader no informational advantage at all.

Trading based on what you see on a price chart alone is suicide. So in that sense, no there is no system like that that will work.
  • #195
  • Jan 15, 2010 1:00pm Jan 15, 2010 1:00pm
Quoting hanover
If price movement was a random walk, then it would be impossible to attain an edge, and costs would ensure that every trader would eventually lose.
One has to be careful with semantics here as the general statement is not strictly true, one can setup edges in random walks depending on what type of random walk it is. For example: a Gaussian random walk with no drift could be traded in a RTM fashion. This is obviously a highly artificial example, but I'm not prepared to go any further into this subject other than to say it's worth rethinking your statement.
The breaking of a wave cannot explain the whole sea.
  • #196
  • Jan 15, 2010 1:03pm Jan 15, 2010 1:03pm
Nice honest post scotty b... I agree. Just want to add that systems as you say do not work. There is no system which can put strict rules etc to a market and expect to always beat the odds.

Methodologies however do, because here the trader works his skill and understanding with the flexible market, and adapts to take whatever profit he can, skewing the odds in his favour using whatever market bias he can muster. Essentially still glorified gambling, but the difference is the experience turns gambling into consistency. Like a top poker player, still gambling, still loses with a good hand now and then, but overall, consistent.

Same problem new people find when trying to work out in the gym. Obsessed with making the best workout 'schedule' putting all the best exercises that appeal them, they fail to reach their goals because they don't actually listen to their bodies.
Of course even there you learn the hard way, it's what you have to do. Everything you do adds up to a greater understanding, until your reactions become efficiently responsive to the situation, be it a ranging or trending market, or an overtrained state in the gym
  • #197
  • Jan 15, 2010 1:04pm Jan 15, 2010 1:04pm
Quoting Scotty B
Trading based on what you see on a price chart alone is suicide. So in that sense, no there is no system like that that will work.
It's good to see you have finally realized that Fibonacci ratios as applied by 99% (actually make that 100% ) of people here are brain dead, but the above statement is demonstrably not true, I know highly successful traders (profitable for 10 years+) who simply trade off price charts (and conversely others who don't even look at charts).
The breaking of a wave cannot explain the whole sea.
  • #198
  • Jan 15, 2010 1:05pm Jan 15, 2010 1:05pm
What ever happened to Vlad(not the Impaler)? Maybe his mom pulled the plug on his internet connection and kicked him out of her basement after he blew his money trading? Vlad come back.
FF = Forex Faggots
  • #199
  • Jan 15, 2010 1:15pm Jan 15, 2010 1:15pm
Quoting 8fingers
What ever happened to Vlad(not the Impaler)? Maybe his mom pulled the plug on his internet connection and kicked him out of her basement after he blew his money trading? Vlad come back.
He came back yesterday and dug out this thread out of Forex Factory's graveyard
Post 159 : http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=159
  • #200
  • Edited 1:29pm Jan 15, 2010 1:26pm | Edited 1:29pm
Quoting Vlad
And there is no one who knows how to trade. If there was, W. Buffet would be his butler and Bill Gates his foot chair. 5% per month, which many "traders" find to be laughable, make 1 trillion dollars out of $50 in less than 40 years. Unless you are a fat rat from a Federal reserve with insider's info, trading is glorified gambling no more and no less. Only ones who win are those who are lucky and quit early. Sorry.

Ok I'll chime in...

Your premise is off. The goal of trading is not to achieve a particular consistent return. The goal is to consistently extract as much capital from the market your skills allow based upon market conditions.

For instance lets suppose the EU moved up 100 pips today (never in a straight line). What percentage of that move did you capture? All 100? You had 100% efficiency today. For that day that was the maximum available return. You cannot control how much return the market may offer only your efficiency in capturing what's offered.

Ok the jokes on me, I just noticed I replied to a thread that was started 2 years ago? Is today April Fool's day...*sigh*
"The markets are the greatest chess match ever played."
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