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AUD/USD

  • #13,681
  • Jan 15, 2010 1:27pm Jan 15, 2010 1:27pm
Quoting Clouds
AJ is an interesting pair. But won't JPY pairs fall just like USD pairs? Japan and US very similar economies.

Attachment
US and Japan are both safe haven economies, but that's where the similarities end. US is a consumption based economy, where Jp is an export based economy.

Currently the USD has been the preferred currency for funding the carry trade, making it weaker compared to all other currencies, commodities, etc. The US economy is also recovering faster than Jp and there is an anticipated Fed rate hike prior to BoJ rate hike, essentially shifting the currency for funding carry trades from USD to JPY leading to a stronger USD and weaker JPY.

Completely different economies, completely different fundamentals. The reason why they tend to move in tandem at times is that they are both safe haven economies and react similarly in times of risk aversion and risk appetite.

-Razorjack
-Razorjack
  • #13,682
  • Jan 15, 2010 1:27pm Jan 15, 2010 1:27pm
One of the updates that I received on e-mail caught my attention regarding trading history, reliability of sources, etc.. I have come to the realization that we all have different objectives, and there is definitely a mix of momentum and swing traders in here. I am blown away by some charting skills of many of our thread participants, but it really comes down to what works for you. For me, I use the basics, trendlines, support and resistance, EMA's, CCI, and I use the Gold Index on a 5 minute chart to trade on a 15 minute AUD/USD Chart. Somedays it works better than others, Tue-I made $960, and today-I only made $230 to finish the week at $1,530. $GOX.X has been channeling most of the afternoon so I am done today because I definitely don't hold over the weekend. I do not trade after the US Market closes, and it took a few months to come to that conclusion. I got lucky on some after hour craziness, and it wasn't until Dec 23rd when we were around .87 something that I learned a hard lesson around the holidays and what can happen after hours. SO my point being if you are looking for the holy grail here, you are probably in trade that you shouldn't be in, and live to fight another day.
  • #13,683
  • Jan 15, 2010 1:27pm Jan 15, 2010 1:27pm
Quoting sinner-
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13406

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13401
Wow, are you for real??

You like to give everyone a hard time, no wonder some people lose confidence in putting posts on this forum. Have a bit of patience with people buddy, were all not super perfect like you might be.

Anyway, like some of your posts, donot like the ones when you are super rude to people.

I should have replied to one of you brainsnap posts so there was an example here for all to see.


cheers
  • #13,684
  • Jan 15, 2010 1:30pm Jan 15, 2010 1:30pm
Quoting Clouds
Shorts being held over the weekend? I think I'll hold.
Hi Cloud,

Yeh I think I will hold as well

cheers
  • #13,685
  • Jan 15, 2010 1:33pm Jan 15, 2010 1:33pm
Thanks Ducci.

Like your comments, very positive thoughts
Quoting Ducci
One of the updates that I received on e-mail caught my attention regarding trading history, reliability of sources, etc.. I have come to the realization that we all have different objectives, and there is definitely a mix of momentum and swing traders in here. I am blown away by some charting skills of many of our thread participants, but it really comes down to what works for you. For me, I use the basics, trendlines, support and resistance, EMA's, CCI, and I use the Gold Index on a 5 minute chart to trade on a 15 minute AUD/USD Chart. Somedays...
  • #13,686
  • Jan 15, 2010 1:38pm Jan 15, 2010 1:38pm
Quoting Razorjack
US and Japan are both safe haven economies, but that's where the similarities end. US is a consumption based economy, where Jp is an export based economy.

-Razorjack
I agree about exports, and I'm sure they are different in other ways also. Just two new democracies is what I see as similar.
  • #13,687
  • Jan 15, 2010 1:48pm Jan 15, 2010 1:48pm
Quoting shoeysfish
Hi Cloud,

Yeh I think I will hold as well

cheers
Cool. I'm happy about the TL break.
  • #13,688
  • Jan 15, 2010 1:49pm Jan 15, 2010 1:49pm
Quoting Ducci
One of the updates that I received on e-mail caught my attention regarding trading history, reliability of sources, etc.. I have come to the realization that we all have different objectives, and there is definitely a mix of momentum and swing traders in here. I am blown away by some charting skills of many of our thread participants, but it really comes down to what works for you. For me, I use the basics, trendlines, support and resistance, EMA's, CCI, and I use the Gold Index on a 5 minute chart to trade on a 15 minute AUD/USD Chart. Somedays...
Hi again,

I use EMA's, what are your setting on these, I use 8, 21 & 500, what is CCI?
I also use RSI set at 14 and Momentum set at 14, not sure on the settings though.
I also use M15 charts for AUD, any reason why you use M5 on the gold?
Yes the holiday period.....very sad for me too....lucked out but still had a good xmas, you?

Anyway, thanks again for the great post, found it informative and interesting.

CLOUDS, DT74, PUKS, TRADOHOLIC and anybody else (sorry to miss your names, no malice intended) your input would be very much appreciated also

regards and best of luck to you all
  • #13,689
  • Jan 15, 2010 1:58pm Jan 15, 2010 1:58pm
Quoting Clouds
Cool. I'm happy about the TL break.
Yes I am hoping that it does finish on shoud I say a low note LOL, Hope it keeps going down for these last few hours, still trying to recoup losses from the pre christmas holiday period. It was my first holidays and did not understand why people steer clear of it. Very volatile, but I still enjoyed it, and had fun, but lost some dough.

Clouds I really appreciate someone of your experience with the extremely nice and patient attitude that is portrayed in your informative posts. Your the type I like to take example from

cheers and regards
  • #13,690
  • Jan 15, 2010 1:59pm Jan 15, 2010 1:59pm
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting shoeysfish
Hi Cloud,

Yeh I think I will hold as well

cheers
Think I will also hold over the weekend..
SL is at 0.9260 at the moment..Should be save I hope. in case we see some gaps
or better move it up to 0.9280? (would be BE then)
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #13,691
  • Jan 15, 2010 2:05pm Jan 15, 2010 2:05pm
Quoting Tuner
Think I will also hold over the weekend..
SL is at 0.9260 at the moment..Should be save I hope. in case we see some gaps
or better move it up to 0.9280? (would be BE then)
Hi Tuner,

I have my SL at 0.9250, SHe is close, but have been making small trades on the ups as well as the downs. Ummm 0.9280, yeh I think safe for the weekend, but a really experienced trader earlier suggested 0.9330-40. I think this was for a longer term trade with a Target in the 0.87's

regards
  • #13,692
  • Jan 15, 2010 2:12pm Jan 15, 2010 2:12pm
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting shoeysfish
Hi Tuner,

I have my SL at 0.9250, SHe is close, but have been making small trades on the ups as well as the downs. Ummm 0.9280, yeh I think safe for the weekend, but a really experienced trader earlier suggested 0.9330-40. I think this was for a longer term trade with a Target in the 0.87's

regards
Hi shoeysfish,
Yeah. also only got a small trade on that one now. Took also one yesterday for some pips. But only short for me at the moment.
If this is not the final turn down now my target would also be 0.89 ... 0.87..
Let's see what next week will bring.

Happy weekend to you!

Regards
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #13,693
  • Jan 15, 2010 2:15pm Jan 15, 2010 2:15pm
Quoting shoeysfish
Yes I am hoping that it does finish on shoud I say a low note...
Thank you for your kind words, sir. It was a long week, but next week the down move should accelerate and some pips can be made. Have a good weekend!
  • #13,694
  • Jan 15, 2010 3:31pm Jan 15, 2010 3:31pm
Quoting Clouds
Thank you for your kind words, sir. It was a long week, but next week the down move should accelerate and some pips can be made. Have a good weekend!
More than welcome, you have a great weekend also

Regards
  • #13,695
  • Jan 15, 2010 3:34pm Jan 15, 2010 3:34pm
Quoting Tuner
Hi shoeysfish,
Yeah. also only got a small trade on that one now. Took also one yesterday for some pips. But only short for me at the moment.
If this is not the final turn down now my target would also be 0.89 ... 0.87..
Let's see what next week will bring.

Happy weekend to you!

Regards
Yes lets hope it is a great week

Happy weekend to you too

cheers
  • #13,696
  • Jan 15, 2010 5:45pm Jan 15, 2010 5:45pm
Quoting tradoholic
Hi Sinner,
Seems both our predictions were right. I collected 500% on my equity since morning shorting ASX200, DJ, DAx, Euro, Gold and AUD. Closed all now except Gold targeting $900. One of those rare days in this business

Congrats tradoholic, what a great day for you!



Kim
  • #13,697
  • Edited 10:18pm Jan 15, 2010 7:10pm | Edited 10:18pm
Quoting Clouds
AJ is an interesting pair. But won't JPY pairs fall just like USD pairs? Japan and US very similar economies.
I guess I was thinking that if the US$ was gonna do another leg higher then the Yen would weaken accordingly but I didn't account for risk aversion leading to a stronger Yen today. I'm still a newbie to this cross so not hugely familiar with it's idiosyncrasies and I am trying to use it for carry purposes as well as trading profit. I've never actively done this before but it's only because the interest rate sucks in the UK and after some quick research on the net it seems the best I can hope to receive over here for a one year fixed term bond is 3% and I don't particularly want to tie my money up for a year to earn a measly 3% minus the 19p (I think it is) government donation for every £1.00 of interest earned. If I can earn around the same amount of interest over a weekend carrying a few contracts of A/J that I earn on a tidy sum of money (in a month) in an on call bank account in the UK then I'm not gonna grumble. If A/J melts down I've got another sub-account at Oanda that I can use for shorting purposes. It remains to be seen what kind of mess I'll be able to get myself into
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #13,698
  • Edited 10:41pm Jan 15, 2010 8:05pm | Edited 10:41pm
Quoting Patience
If A/J melts down I've got another sub-account at Oanda that I can use for shorting purposes. It remains to be seen what kind of mess I'll be able to get myself into
I have been musing over this Interest Rate Arbitrage (IRA) business meself. Hope you will share your messes here for all to gawk.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,699
  • Jan 15, 2010 10:26pm Jan 15, 2010 10:26pm
Quoting The Fool
I have musing over this Interest Rate Arbitrage (IRA) business meself. Hope you will share your messes here for all to gawk.
He, he - hopefully it won't come to that. If I disappear for a long period of time you'll know that I'm trying to stem the haemorrhaging especially if the CTFC implement the 10:1 leverage
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #13,700
  • Jan 15, 2010 10:40pm Jan 15, 2010 10:40pm
Quoting Patience
He, he - hopefully it won't come to that. If I disappear for a long period of time you'll know that I'm trying to stem the haemorrhaging especially if the CTFC implement the 10:1 leverage
I think the CFTC is probably getting political pressure from the futures brokers to level the playing field & so to bring margin down to futures-comparable levels & so the end result will be a reduction from NFA's 100:1 to 25:1 or maybe 50:1. I could live with either one. 10:1 and I'm going to abandon spot fx for futures...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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