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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #5,461
  • Jan 15, 2010 6:32pm Jan 15, 2010 6:32pm
Quoting bartstop
Look at the way the white 138 matched up perfectly with the red 50 and the blue trendline. When I saw that there was no way I was going long. Plus the rallies were getting shorter and shorter.


Bartstop
Good analysis BarT. What's your red fib pulled on? I'm gonna be pedantic now, if your white fib is on yesterdays range you need to pull it up slightly to the top of the wick.

Don't forget, if you took the break of the 0, you would have trailed your stop, I would anyway. I'd have took something from it.

If you fibbed yesterdays daily candle range you will see it hit the lower 138 to the dot. There's a reversal trade in there too.

Goodnight.
Keep smiling
  • #5,462
  • Jan 15, 2010 6:37pm Jan 15, 2010 6:37pm
Quoting bartstop
I'm still trying to grasp this concept. I need to understand the difference between the two lines for future analysis.

The fib that you drew isn't really a valid fib? A horizontal line is all you really needed to make your point. Right?

To differentiate between the two lines:

[size=2][font=Arial]The 50% fib line is a resistance that "naturally" occurs after any large movement. Even if buyers are in control, more than likely we will see...
This is where one needs to consider, do I really need fibs or should I just trade S/R. Just a thought.
Keep smiling
  • #5,463
  • Jan 15, 2010 6:49pm Jan 15, 2010 6:49pm
Quoting Checkz
I thought I read somewhere on this thread that whenever price retraces past the 61.8 inner fib that it's a early sign that the market is reversing from it's previous trend. Is this true or am I dreaming.
To correct my aforementioned post. I meant that price had played a couple of reversals before it got through the 61.8. Sorry I was not very clear.

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #5,464
  • Jan 15, 2010 7:41pm Jan 15, 2010 7:41pm
Quoting Misterdaz
Good analysis BarT. What's your red fib pulled on? I'm gonna be pedantic now, if your white fib is on yesterdays range you need to pull it up slightly to the top of the wick.

Don't forget, if you took the break of the 0, you would have trailed your stop, I would anyway. I'd have took something from it.

If you fibbed yesterdays daily candle range you will see it hit the lower 138 to the dot. There's a reversal trade in there too.

Goodnight.
Ok, this is where the methods differ. Look at where I pulled the red fib. From the very top to the very bottom of that movement. I ignored the period seperators. Why did I do it like that? Look at the two wicks that come up and hit the 38 line. If I did it just as TK would have I would have pull the top even higher so the 38 line matched up exactly with the wicks, but I didn't. If I pulled it from the previous months high to low, nothing really matched up. I got lucky.

Then theres the white fib on the hourly chart. If i pull it up to the top of the highest wick, nothing matches up. The way I have it pulled atleast there is some respect. It just happened to work out. Again, I think there was some luck involved. Plus, I tend to be a little anal about things matching up.

I'm noticing that you have to fib from where the breakout started and then finding where the next cycle takes over is sometimes hard to find but I can usually put it on a wick of a candle somewhere close. Sometimes I have to go to the 15m chart to find it.

Take a look at the last 2 charts. I may be over-analyzing, but I think we should discuss the full anatomy of a cycle. Maybe we can get as accurate at Skunny claimed?


Bartstop
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  • #5,465
  • Jan 16, 2010 2:49am Jan 16, 2010 2:49am
I thought you had adopted Compass's method in which case you was slighty incorrect on the White fib. You have not though, you are fibbing swings, yes? Not fixed periods like a daily range, which can in themselves be a swing.

I think maybe you would be more suited to working out TK if you look for the inner fib respect. I have come a long way with his stuff but unfortunately he is not around much to ask him questions. Then there's his answers, gotta love him
though.

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #5,466
  • Jan 16, 2010 6:09am Jan 16, 2010 6:09am
Quoting Misterdaz
I thought you had adopted Compass's method in which case you was slighty incorrect on the White fib. You have not though, you are fibbing swings, yes? Not fixed periods like a daily range, which can in themselves be a swing.

I think maybe you would be more suited to working out TK if you look for the inner fib respect. I have come a long way with his stuff but unfortunately he is not around much to ask him questions. Then there's his answers, gotta love him
though.

MD.
I haven't really adopted anything yet. I'm still in the trial and error stage. There are advantages and disadvantages to both. I need to see what works best for me.

Just as soon as I think I'm finally getting my head around all of this, Compass comes along and throws this PA thing in here. He's got my head spinning at the moment. I love it.


Bartstop
  • #5,467
  • Jan 16, 2010 12:48pm Jan 16, 2010 12:48pm
Quoting Misterdaz
This applies the othe way up as well. Fib daily every day or daily with the move on 138 completions either end, not both, one is enough.

Mines a pint.

MD.
Thanks for clearing this up because I was trying to apply both methods and I think this is what was confusing the heck out of me. It was something I definitely needed to hear.
  • #5,468
  • Jan 16, 2010 2:12pm Jan 16, 2010 2:12pm
Hey guys I was up Backtesting FxCompass Daily fib method and Im seeing some very intresting things that have answered my questions concerning stoploss and entry. This Fib stuff is amazing!!!!
  • #5,469
  • Jan 16, 2010 3:55pm Jan 16, 2010 3:55pm
Quoting Checkz
Hey guys I was up Backtesting FxCompass Daily fib method and Im seeing some very intresting things that have answered my questions concerning stoploss and entry. This Fib stuff is amazing!!!!

Care to share your findings?
  • #5,470
  • Jan 16, 2010 7:46pm Jan 16, 2010 7:46pm
Quoting bartstop
Care to share your findings?
Well it's proably nothing new to those of you who are professional traders and know what you are doing but to me it seems like when you re-draw your fibs everyday on the daily single candle it's as if you are zeroing in on the 138.2 fib ext while automatically cutting some of your losses. I myself enter in on the breaks of the high and lows. So if the high is broken I place my stoploss at the low. Now lets say the high is broken On a long bullish candle one day and the next day a smaller candle appears well since this candle is smaller you can then move your stop up limiting some of your losses while zeroing in on a 1.382 fib ext being hit. It's a very simple yet effective way to trade Skunny's method if you ask me.
  • #5,471
  • Jan 16, 2010 8:10pm Jan 16, 2010 8:10pm
The Small red Candle limit's my losses while still hitting the 1.382 fib ext
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  • #5,472
  • Jan 17, 2010 12:00am Jan 17, 2010 12:00am
My thoughts on EU. Please correct me if I'm wrong.


Chart 1: This is the monthly chart. The red line represents the "line in the sand" where sellers have established their position. The October candle with it's long wick shows a lot of sellers coming in once price crossed the red line. The November candle shows that buyers pushed back and drove the price back up, but the red line is as far as they could get. The December candle shows that buyers were overwhelmed and sellers are in the drivers seat. It's very likely that this months candle will be bearish also.

Chart 2: The 4 hour chart. I have drawn a fib across the recent down move. Notice that I didn't put the 100 line at the very top. I put it where the rapid free-fall started. This always seems to work best for me. Anyways, buyers made 4 attempts to push price above the 38 line but failed. Price has began to drop again and will probably continue with a small bounce off of the 0 line. I am going to wait for a 4 hour candle to close below the 0 line before I short this pair. At that point I will use the Compass method of fibbing the daily High/Low.


For those of you that are new to this. DO NOT take my predictions as the gospel. I'm still fairly new also. I am only making posts like this because I am seeking guidance from the more experienced members. If any of them care to comment, please do (Hint: FX Compass). Thanks.



Bartstop
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  • #5,473
  • Jan 17, 2010 1:27am Jan 17, 2010 1:27am
Quoting bartstop
My thoughts on EU. Please correct me if I'm wrong.


Chart 1: This is the monthly chart. The red line represents the "line in the sand" where sellers have established their position. The October candle with it's long wick shows a lot of sellers coming in once price crossed the red line. The November candle shows that buyers pushed back and drove the price back up, but the red line is as far as they could get. The December candle shows that buyers were overwhelmed and sellers are in the drivers seat. It's very likely that this months candle will...
Hi Bartstop,

agree with all you have stated.

We should be headed back down for a re-test of the 0 line on the H4.
Supply will be tested a second time, and judging by the first test of this line, it is highly likely we will break to the downside and hit the extensions below.

Monthly trend is also down and we are coming from the 78.6 so the lows hit in September/October 2008 will be revisited as they are sitting at the 0 line.
  • #5,474
  • Jan 17, 2010 4:45am Jan 17, 2010 4:45am
Quoting Checkz
The Small red Candle limit's my losses while still hitting the 1.382 fib ext
It's never a bad idea to try to keep a position running and chase a stop up behind it, let the Market stop you out when it eventually turns. The problem I have with your idea Checkz is your initial r/r. You are risking 100% to make 38%. Get 3 of those wrong in a row and you will doing some serious damage to your finances. Nice idea though, maybe you need to work on your stoplosses.........

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #5,475
  • Jan 17, 2010 12:15pm Jan 17, 2010 12:15pm
Compass, do you only trade the break of the 0/100 line or would you place a sell limit when you see a fib cluster like this?
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  • #5,476
  • Edited 1:23pm Jan 17, 2010 12:48pm | Edited 1:23pm
Quoting bartstop
Compass, do you only trade the break of the 0/100 line or would you place a sell limit when you see a fib cluster like this?
I trade the 0 or 100 break to the extension and the reversal trades from 23.6 or 78.6 to the 50 line, this way if a trade gets stopped out then I have the reversal trade activated.
  • #5,477
  • Edited 3:11pm Jan 17, 2010 1:31pm | Edited 3:11pm
Not quite sure if I should introduce this, but if there is enough interest I am happy to bring them in as well.

I have found Fib Fans extremely usefull in seeing another dimension to the trade and confirming what is actually happening in the relationship between price and time.

Yes that's right Time. Like to know if price is behaving as expected and when it is likely to complete its journey to the target, then introduce the Fib Fan.

http://www.forexfibonacci.com/fibonacci_fan/02/
  • #5,478
  • Jan 17, 2010 2:49pm Jan 17, 2010 2:49pm
Quoting FX Compass
Not quite sure if I should introduce this, but if there is enough interest I am happy to bring them in as well.

I have found Fib Fans extremely usefull in seeing another dimension to the trade and confirming what is actually happening in the relationship between price and time.

Yes that's right Time. Like to know if price is behaving as expected and when it is likely to complete its journey to the target, the introduce the Fib Fan.

http://www.forexfibonacci.com/fibonacci_fan/02/
Fxcm doesn't have them but I wish the did.
  • #5,479
  • Jan 17, 2010 3:33pm Jan 17, 2010 3:33pm
Quoting Checkz
Fxcm doesn't have them but I wish the did.
Hey Checkz,

might be worthwhile setting up an unlimited demo on Alpari or FxPro see you can see the great gain of the Fib Fan to this system.
  • #5,480
  • Jan 17, 2010 5:00pm Jan 17, 2010 5:00pm
Just dicking around re-installing everything after a few viruses paid me a visit. Thought I'd try out a new drink, whisky, blackcurrant and water....taste like p1ss.

Oh no not the fib fans, it'll be Gann lines next.

MD.
Keep smiling
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