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AUD/USD

  • #13,621
  • Jan 15, 2010 1:26am Jan 15, 2010 1:26am
Quoting Clouds
9320 or 9340
Make your own decision of course, but there's a slim chance it'll test .93
  • #13,622
  • Jan 15, 2010 1:28am Jan 15, 2010 1:28am
Quoting Clouds
Make your own decision of course, but there's a slim chance it'll test .93
Thanks and yes of course I'll make my own decision , I don't believe it will reach 0.9300 again in the very short term though
  • #13,623
  • Jan 15, 2010 1:31am Jan 15, 2010 1:31am
Merkel has no plans to quit german chancellor, govt says. rumors totally made up.. no market reaction
  • #13,624
  • Jan 15, 2010 1:43am Jan 15, 2010 1:43am
it wont be too long before we are heading to 0.9190
  • #13,625
  • Jan 15, 2010 1:50am Jan 15, 2010 1:50am
Quoting amyc
I know, i just don't like the way its hanging round there thats all, i'd be happier if it consolidated below 9270.
It's getting there. Now 9260's
  • #13,626
  • Jan 15, 2010 1:52am Jan 15, 2010 1:52am
Hey Patience

This thread is too fast for me to catch up, I had to look back four pages and aussie managed to move 24 pips range (just joking). Happy new year and hope you make many pips. A/J long term is UP but price has just met one of my fan line @ 86/87, let the wedge run its course and hopefully it may trend up again. Wolfe Wave fans are trying very hard to break it though so keep a watch over it



Quoting Patience
Hey you

Nice of you to pop in. Hope you are well and happy new year. I've branched out and am trading A/J most of the time now. Do you have any pearls of wisdom for me?
..
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  • #13,627
  • Jan 15, 2010 1:56am Jan 15, 2010 1:56am
how about this??
Nice sell at top opportunity!!!
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  • #13,628
  • Jan 15, 2010 2:01am Jan 15, 2010 2:01am
AU just got F@#%ed.
  • #13,629
  • Jan 15, 2010 2:03am Jan 15, 2010 2:03am
Quoting Clouds
AU just got F@#%ed.
what or who by?
  • #13,630
  • Jan 15, 2010 2:05am Jan 15, 2010 2:05am
Quoting shoeysfish
what or who by?
broken tl from .87
  • #13,631
  • Jan 15, 2010 2:16am Jan 15, 2010 2:16am
  •  Oz4x
  • | Joined Oct 2009 | Status: "Everybody Wants Some!" - Roth | 76 Posts
Quoting Clouds
broken tl from .87
Greetings all

Yep, here as well. S/L @ B/E 0.9316, TP1 @ 0.9210.

Around .9320-.9340 has been a bit of a "wall" since early December on my H1 as well.

- Oz
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  • #13,632
  • Jan 15, 2010 2:17am Jan 15, 2010 2:17am
Quoting GoldenGold
I just checked some review comments on http://www.forexpeacearmy.com
Seems like none of the brokers are good! LOL. Or those people were just too picky/negative???
Yeah every broker has their pros and cons.

Spread widening during the time of news is a liquidity issue and NOT A BROKER MANIPULATION. It happens at ECN level too.

So if you are rating broker purely on the basis of spread widening during news time, well, good luck to you...
  • #13,633
  • Jan 15, 2010 2:20am Jan 15, 2010 2:20am
Quoting Clouds
broken tl from .87
Hi guys,

First post so just go ahead and let me have it!

I haven't read the entire thread so if I apologize if I repeat what's the obvious or what's already been stated by others.

I'm a position trader and I trade using daily charts and higher. Right now on my charts, it's still sitting on starting to pierce the TL from 0.87, not quite broken until the daily closes below the TL.

But I do agree that AUDUSD is headed downwards for several reasons. Long term fundamentals still point to AUDUSD heading upwards, but the first leg of the bull run is overstretched and not even great eco data from AU can push it much further. Add to that the fact the USD has reached bottom and turned, the JP economy in serious trouble, it's highly likely that the Fed will raise rates prior to BoJ, fundamentally shifting carry trade financing from the USD to JPY.

Another factor is that the BJ gov't reached it's threshold of pain when the USD hit 85 JPY, and with the G8 coming in Feb there will be a lot countries including EZ, China and Japan wanting to see greater USD strength warranting coordinated global central bank intervention.

Hope that wasn't too long winded!

Anyways this has led me to short AUDUSD with a target to at least around 0.87 before we see the 2nd leg of the bull run.

Of course I could be completely wrong!

-Razorjack
-Razorjack
  • #13,634
  • Jan 15, 2010 2:21am Jan 15, 2010 2:21am
For those who are interested, here is the detail explanation of how this market works.

It will definitely answer your questions about spread widening

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=7484
  • #13,635
  • Edited 2:43am Jan 15, 2010 2:29am | Edited 2:43am
Quoting puks
For those who are interested, here is the detail explanation of how this market works.

It will definitely answer your questions about spread widening

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=7484
Hi puks,

There is a general disagreement about Darkstars work. For one, there is more than one economic papers indicating the bulk of forex transactions are indeed speculative in nature. From my understanding, Darkstar never actually supported any of his views with fact. As I mentioned, the science seems to disagree with his findings.

Also there is another paper titled "Support for Resistance" done by someone at the Fed indicating that even nonspeculative orders tend to follow the exact trading principles speculative ones over an extremely large sample base.

Do you think bank traders working through Toyota employee paycheck conversion (using one of Darkstars example) will simply dump their orders on the market any old place? Hell no, if they want to buy they will buy at support and if they want to sell they will sell at resistance. As someone recently mentioned in another thread (and very aptly so): if you want to deploy any meanigful money size into any market without shifting it signifcantly, you only have one choice: go with the trend.

Regardless, I was not highlighting spread widening specifically, but some of the advantages/disadvantages of using a fixed spread broker vs STP and ECN brokers.

Here is some info from Boris Schlossberg of investopedia on the issue:
What are you really selling or buying in the currency market?
The short answer is "nothing". The retail FX market is purely a speculative market. No physical exchange of currencies ever takes place. All trades exist simply as computer entries and are netted out depending on market price. For dollar-denominated accounts, all profits or losses are calculated in dollars and recorded as such on the trader's account.

The primary reason the FX market exists is to facilitate the exchange of one currency into another for multinational corporations who need to trade currencies continually (for example, for payroll, payment for costs of goods and services from foreign vendors, and merger and acquisition activity). However, these day-to-day corporate needs comprise only about 20% of the market volume. Fully 80% of trades in the currency market are speculative in nature, put on by large financial institutions, multi-billion dollar hedge funds and even individuals who want to express their opinions on the economic and geopolitical events of the day.
  • #13,636
  • Jan 15, 2010 2:59am Jan 15, 2010 2:59am
Dear traders.

Yesterday, a short while into the London open I provided an M15 volume spread analysis indicating sellers. That analysis was confirmed and the price retreated over 70 pips since the bar closed on that post.

Tonight I am highlighting buyers, please take note and trade accordingly. The same I said last night applies again tonight: watch the London open price as S/R.

If higher volume enters the market to return it to the offer, I will post an update indicating my thoughts for your comments.
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  • #13,637
  • Jan 15, 2010 3:10am Jan 15, 2010 3:10am
Quoting sinner-
Dear traders.

Yesterday, a short while into the London open I provided an M15 volume spread analysis indicating sellers. That analysis was confirmed and the price retreated over 70 pips since the bar closed on that post.

Tonight I am highlighting buyers, please take note and trade accordingly. The same I said last night applies again tonight: watch the London open price as S/R.

If higher volume enters the market to return it to the offer, I will post an update indicating my thoughts for your comments.
Ok thankyou.
  • #13,638
  • Jan 15, 2010 3:17am Jan 15, 2010 3:17am
My charts are forming bullish patterns, downtrend looks under threat for now to me as well.
  • #13,639
  • Jan 15, 2010 3:23am Jan 15, 2010 3:23am
Quoting amyc
My charts are forming bullish patterns, downtrend looks under threat for now to me as well.
Good to hear I'm not the only one. 0.9877-0.92820 is the 5 ticks where supply might like to enter for now. 82 also happens to be the daily low for the 11th of this month.
  • #13,640
  • Jan 15, 2010 3:23am Jan 15, 2010 3:23am
hi Sinner,

What you're said below in Boris Schlossberg's para is only the half of entire story.

In spot market or for that matter in any CFD market, no physical exchange of "entity" ever happens. However, that doesn't mean that the 'business" or "trade" hasn't taken place.

When you pay your bills through B-pay, no physical exchange of money happens but it happens "at some level" eventually. Similarly the trade in forex exchange market.

Consider this practical example:

An American visitor goes to Bahamas for holiday. he goes to a hotel and wants to check it out before he decides to stay there. so he deposits $100 to a hotel manager while he goes upstairs to check out the hotel.

While he is upstairs, the manager quickly goes next door to pay $100 he borrowed from the shop owner who gave him some grocery during tough times. Then he returns back to his desk.

The shop owner quickly goes to the hooker who provided him with her services "on credit" during GFC.

The hooker quickly goes back to the hotel manager and gave him $100 she owes him for allowing her to use the hotel room on credit during the GFC.

So here we are. The hotel manager has got the $100 back, which was given to him as a deposit but 3 people in town are now "debt-free" or in other words, richer by $100.

When the visitor returns from upstairs, he gets his $100 back and walks away since he is not interested to stay in this hotel.

Hope you got the gist of the story and how transaction works in real world.

About FX market and how it works, the information is there in the book "Day trading the currency market by Boris and Kathy".

I am not making any of this up, for records.

Cheers




Quoting sinner-
Hi puks,

There is a general disagreement about Darkstars work. For one, there is more than one economic papers indicating the bulk of forex transactions are indeed speculative in nature. From my understanding, Darkstar never actually supported any of his views with fact. As I mentioned, the science seems to disagree with his findings.

Also there is another paper titled "Support for Resistance" done by someone at the Fed indicating that even nonspeculative orders tend to follow the exact trading principles speculative ones over an extremely...
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