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Islander and Medici trade the European open

  • #301
  • Jan 15, 2010 12:33am Jan 15, 2010 12:33am
GM - so cable has now hit the 50% retrace of the Nov 16 to Dec 30 fall.....with this be the top.....TWT....for now, we have support at the days open at 6322 and resistance at 6350.....I have just sold the turn back from the MR1 level as a LH....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #302
  • Jan 15, 2010 12:38am Jan 15, 2010 12:38am
Euro made a LH on its daily chart and on the hourly has a head and shoulders......the 4400 area was resistance many times and thus should be strong support....

Swissy has so far respected its hourly 50% fib at 1.0255
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #303
  • Jan 15, 2010 12:49am Jan 15, 2010 12:49am
Quoting Porkpie
Nice one guys. Just found this thread. What a gem.
Thanks - good to see you here.....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #304
  • Jan 15, 2010 1:03am Jan 15, 2010 1:03am
Quoting Islander
GM - so cable has now hit the 50% retrace of the Nov 16 to Dec 30 fall.....with this be the top.....TWT....for now, we have support at the days open at 6322 and resistance at 6350.....I have just sold the turn back from the MR1 level as a LH....

GM Islander. I waited for the 7am manipulation and now short from 6343. TWT.
  • #305
  • Jan 15, 2010 1:06am Jan 15, 2010 1:06am
Quoting medici
GM Islander. I waited for the 7am manipulation and now short from 6343. TWT.

That's a better idea....I closed for a couple of pips when it turned at the 50% of the over night range, short again..

I'm having connection problems, so may be off line as I try to solve them....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #306
  • Jan 15, 2010 1:29am Jan 15, 2010 1:29am
Quoting Islander
That's a better idea....I closed for a couple of pips when it turned at the 50% of the over night range, short again..

I'm having connection problems, so may be off line as I try to solve them....
Closed at double bottom at daily pivot. Short again from 6323.

This is how I read this morning: The spike up before 6am was dealers triggering orders for their own books. Clear sign that the direction is down, but also that further manipulation is to be expected.

Edit...And out at BE
  • #307
  • Jan 15, 2010 2:01am Jan 15, 2010 2:01am
Short again from 6334.

Edit...and out.
  • #308
  • Jan 15, 2010 2:06am Jan 15, 2010 2:06am
I misscalculated with my TP at the DP level and so was late closing....resold off MR1 and out at DP - correct TP this time...
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #309
  • Jan 15, 2010 2:11am Jan 15, 2010 2:11am
Short again after days open level held .....€ and swissy have broken out of their Frankies Hour range......can they hold the break??
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #310
  • Jan 15, 2010 2:19am Jan 15, 2010 2:19am
Quoting medici
G

I'd expect a slow grind lower on profit-taking in cable and ditto or consolidation in Euro. Have been wrong before though...
Not today...
  • #311
  • Jan 15, 2010 2:33am Jan 15, 2010 2:33am
Quoting Islander
Short again after days open level held .....€ and swissy have broken out of their Frankies Hour range......can they hold the break??

I held that short waiting to see IF we got the break.....not so far, so out for a few....

Assuming that Jan 1 was counted, today is option expiry on the US exchanges, so we might get some volatility in the early US session, but for now its back to range trading - and a nice one too....http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #312
  • Jan 15, 2010 2:39am Jan 15, 2010 2:39am
Sold MR1 -again...
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #313
  • Jan 15, 2010 2:45am Jan 15, 2010 2:45am
Quoting Islander
Sold MR1 -again...
banked a few more...now will we revisit the highs.....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #314
  • Jan 15, 2010 2:48am Jan 15, 2010 2:48am
Quoting Islander
banked a few more...now will we revisit the highs.....
I think that's it for this morning's profit-taking, and in Euro's case stop take out after Trichet's statement about debt problems in the Eurozone. So I'll be on the sidelines until I see something substantial develop.
  • #315
  • Jan 15, 2010 2:53am Jan 15, 2010 2:53am
Note the structure of the order flow. Two waves of selling at 7am and 8am, then a new phase develops.
  • #316
  • Jan 15, 2010 3:12am Jan 15, 2010 3:12am
I have the LO 5 min candle as the highest volume, followed by decreasing vols as price moved back up towards MR1, where I've been selling and banking for ~10 pips a go, just closing my last sell in the push towards the DP....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #317
  • Jan 15, 2010 3:20am Jan 15, 2010 3:20am
Medici - re your comment on order flow structure, I saw that - and assume that is traders building a short position, it is recognizing the new phase that I don't see so clearly, is this 9am candle not a contunuation of 7 and 8am flow? Or are traders building long positions now? If this 9am candle doesn't make a new low, would that negate continuation of order flow and indicate for now either consolidation or bias has changed to upside?

Realise you are busy trading, so don't wish to bother you. Thanks again.
  • #318
  • Jan 15, 2010 3:23am Jan 15, 2010 3:23am
That's well done! Whereas my thinking is that the decreasing volume means the possibility of erratic price action, and as the selling is over that PA could be to the upside (even though consolidation is more likely). So not worth the risk is my take on it.
  • #319
  • Jan 15, 2010 3:32am Jan 15, 2010 3:32am
Quoting annieb
Medici - re your comment on order flow structure, I saw that - and assume that is traders building a short position, it is recognizing the new phase that I don't see so clearly, is this 9am candle not a contunuation of 7 and 8am flow? Or are traders building long positions now? If this 9am candle doesn't make a new low, would that negate continuation of order flow and indicate for now either consolidation or bias has changed to upside?

Realise you are busy trading, so don't wish to bother you. Thanks again.
Hi Annie,

First, it's Friday and some folks want to take profit after a strong week, so that's what you see rather than people building shorts. The change of phase was when the daily pivot held and price consolidated above it - meaning that there was no follow-through on the selling. So after that another group of people might start working the long side again. Or not. And you're right about the 9am candle. After 9am there's often, like today apparently, consolidation until the NY open.
  • #320
  • Jan 15, 2010 3:39am Jan 15, 2010 3:39am
Thanks that really helped, I hadn't considered the daily pivot at all...doh..
.
And Islander your comments regarding the decreasing volume helped too, I read some of the posts by the members as you suggested, but it was as clear as mud...will in time try to absorb.

thanks to both of you.
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