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Islander and Medici trade the European open

  • #281
  • Edited Jan 14, 2010 12:17am Jan 13, 2010 11:26pm | Edited Jan 14, 2010 12:17am
Quoting Islander
After the HLs I took a buy in case we get an upside breakout.....
Not too worried about upside break, but price action may be erratic. Took a short in Euro at 4554 again.
  • #282
  • Jan 14, 2010 12:18am Jan 14, 2010 12:18am
Quoting medici
Not too worried about upside break, but price action may be erratic. Took a short in Euro at 4554 again.
And out at the daily pivot 4514.
  • #283
  • Jan 14, 2010 12:21am Jan 14, 2010 12:21am
Quoting medici
Not too worried about upside break, but price action may be erratic. Took a short in Euro at 4554 again.
You were correct, so another B/E and went short after the LH and break of 30 ema etc.....

Nice € trade and once again it has the cleaner chart.....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #284
  • Edited 12:50am Jan 14, 2010 12:27am | Edited 12:50am
Here's an idea how MFI divergence can be used in conjunction with support and resistance around the open.

Cable advances up towards the 1.6305 level while MFI shows a decline, indicating that the up bars are lower volume than the down bars - a sign that this is a dealer driven push up to pick up sell orders. PA at 1.6305 in confluence with the 7am open time confirms the high-probability short.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable 14 jan mfi div.jpg Size: 153 KB
  • #285
  • Jan 14, 2010 12:47am Jan 14, 2010 12:47am
Quoting Islander
You were correct, so another B/E and went short after the LH and break of 30 ema etc.....

Nice € trade and once again it has the cleaner chart.....
Good entry. Out at 6265 I hope - bottom of the consolidation range that now seems to have been established.

And when it comes to cleaner Euro charts, here's a thought: The Euro spread is on average about two thirds of cable's, the short term volatility also two thirds, and the average range as well. So how about trading Euro with two thirds of the cable stop and 50% more leverage and make the same money on average?

The point being not to pit one against the other, but that they could be about equally profitable to trade. People are attracted to sterling-yen for the big pip moves, which I've always thought was not a very good reason. Similarly, are we attracted to cable for similar reasons but fail to see that it doesn't pay off?

The only argument against this hypothesis that I can find is that cable sometimes makes big moves while Euro stays in a range. Those days are not in majority, and they are usually preceded by clear indications, so on days like today Euro is the nicer one to deal in. 40 pip range for both, but clearer chart with plenty of high probability opportunities for entry.
  • #286
  • Jan 14, 2010 12:55am Jan 14, 2010 12:55am
If the MFI continues to act as a useful divergence indy I'll add it to my main chart.....I've tried several different attemps at using volume and usually just get confused in the interpretation!

There are a couple of good posts in DTs thread - on volume by Stocky Monk and on timing by 2be, although I have reservations out his methodology for FX.....bbmac's post is also worth reading....

now back to trading the channel.....I closed the short after the initial LO push down stalled....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #287
  • Jan 14, 2010 1:08am Jan 14, 2010 1:08am
Quoting Islander
If the MFI continues to act as a useful divergence indy I'll add it to my main chart.....I've tried several different attemps at using volume and usually just get confused in the interpretation!

There are a couple of good posts in DTs thread - on volume by Stocky Monk and on timing by 2be, although I have reservations out his methodology for FX.....bbmac's post is also worth reading....

now back to trading the channel.....I closed the short after the initial LO push down stalled....
Yes, MFI is a good candidate. Let's discuss and see if we can draw any conclusions when we have more evidence.

Thanks for pointing out those posts. I particularly appreciate StockyMonk's insight.

Edit...I'd be wary of stop-hunting above in cable, though.
  • #288
  • Jan 14, 2010 1:18am Jan 14, 2010 1:18am
The latest run up in cable shows divergence on M15 and oversold readings on M5. And it did turn down again...
  • #289
  • Jan 14, 2010 1:19am Jan 14, 2010 1:19am
Quoting medici
Yes, MFI is a good candidate. Let's discuss and see if we can draw any conclusions when we have more evidence.

Thanks for pointing out those posts. I particularly appreciate StockyMonk's insight.

Edit...I'd be wary of stop-hunting above in cable, though.
That's why I've been buying after dips, expecting a stop sweeping spike.....also, given the sideways action, I'm ignoring the ~horizontal 5m 30 ema and just looking at the 1 min 30 ema....

I'll give more thought to your € ideas.....so far I've been thinking more of taking signals in both....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #290
  • Jan 14, 2010 1:23am Jan 14, 2010 1:23am
Hi,

Thanks for your input this morning...I'm struggling to read what's happening this morning - so mainly on sidelines. The euro seems weaker - euro/£ is down, could that be reason for choppy £/$ selling? It seems dips are being bought, so breakout possible ( oh...just happened) But not sure if breakout is genuine...wait and see I suppose.

When price has been ranging in downtrend like recently - I find it hard after 3 days in a row to trust upside - keep expecting price to go back down in a flash the minute I place faith in upside continuation.

I got the book you recommended Medici - quite enlightening.

Cheers, hope you get your targets today. I'm done now. thanks again.
  • #291
  • Jan 14, 2010 1:25am Jan 14, 2010 1:25am
There's plenty of important news due out after European lunch - € rates etc and then several US announcements.....lets hope these trigger some action.....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #292
  • Jan 14, 2010 1:40am Jan 14, 2010 1:40am
Quoting annieb
Hi,

Thanks for your input this morning...I'm struggling to read what's happening this morning - so mainly on sidelines....
Hi Annie, good to see you here. Glad you like the book.

Good thinking not to trust the upside I think. Everything pointed to a consolidation day, but with recent cable bullishness I thought Euro to be the better option on the short side.
  • #293
  • Jan 14, 2010 1:44am Jan 14, 2010 1:44am
Quoting Islander

I'll give more thought to your € ideas.....so far I've been thinking more of taking signals in both....
Contrary to what they teach in finance departments, I am not in favour of diversification. Better to put all eggs in one basket and watch that basket carefully, I think. And I find it easier mentally to focus on one at a time. But as you know I do take trades in both. Under re-evaluation however.
  • #294
  • Jan 14, 2010 1:45am Jan 14, 2010 1:45am
Quoting Islander
There's plenty of important news due out after European lunch - € rates etc and then several US announcements.....lets hope these trigger some action.....
Unfortunately I have other things to do this afternoon...
  • #295
  • Edited 9:55pm Jan 14, 2010 1:47am | Edited 9:55pm
I've had enough of this going to watch some cricket. SA outplayed England (after 30 years here v 20 in UK I have to be a boertjie - if thats how you spell it!!) in 2 of 3 tests but find themselves 1 down. We -SA- need a win here to draw the series.

If you have to miss a mornings trading this is the one to miss. I can't trade ranges to save my life but even for me there were some clues, would I have taken them is another thing.

Be back later after Eur int rate etc etc.
  • #296
  • Jan 14, 2010 1:55am Jan 14, 2010 1:55am
Quoting medici
Unfortunately I have other things to do this afternoon...

I'm taking a couple of hours off now, back for the news....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #297
  • Jan 14, 2010 6:25am Jan 14, 2010 6:25am
I sold cables new highs ~10 mins after the news......dollar aka Swissy could only make a 61% retrace, so IMO cable was over-valued / had another stop sweep......5m 30 eam is now at 6285, so I exited there. Until that level breaks the trend is still up......
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #298
  • Jan 14, 2010 7:43am Jan 14, 2010 7:43am
Nice one guys. Just found this thread. What a gem.
  • #299
  • Jan 14, 2010 10:23pm Jan 14, 2010 10:23pm
GM all. Caught 10 quick ones in the Euro on the spike to yesterday's low.

I'd expect a slow grind lower on profit-taking in cable and ditto or consolidation in Euro. Have been wrong before though...

Of note is MFI14 divergence on M5 in cable on the run up from 6285 to 6355.
  • #300
  • Jan 14, 2010 10:29pm Jan 14, 2010 10:29pm
Morning Medici.
This MFI is getting interesting, GU dble btm at 6285 in Asian session. I had 15 min push down to 20 level where theres usually a rejection, divergence on 5 min and 1 min.
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