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  • #9,201
  • Jan 14, 2010 10:25am Jan 14, 2010 10:25am
Quoting LarryK
Although cable is not really doing anything except cruise between one SR and another these past months I thought that a break through the previous high in this apparant return trip to 1.67 or higher was worth a trade. I realise that this is not classic PASR so expect the usual amount of abuse for this trade entry 16248 stop 16128 very small $/pip.

It really is hard to ignore the way cable seems to drift between these SR's.

Larry
I agree, it is hard to ignore…….rather like EURJPY which has been going up and down for quite a few months now. I've been reasonably successful with that one.

But why would you expect ‘the usual amount of abuse for this trade’ if you can justify it on the basis of price? Is there a hint of doubt in your mind? I know Strat can seem harsh sometimes but it is only because he hates seeing people putting their hard earned (usually) money at risk by taking trades that have low probability of success. After all if we could all trade successfully without driving ourselves nuts with worry we wouldn’t be on this thread would we?

It isn’t always pleasant I agree, and I’ve been on the end of it as well, but one learns to ride it out because the over all goal is worth it.

A few posts back Strat wrote this about Cable:

Quoting strat
And miss out on triple pips?
Now that seems fairly positive about trading Cable to me, although he will go for you if he suspects the MM is not sound.

Then again............. he may go for you anyway just for the hell of it! lol

At least you posted your trade. I'm certainly not posting one I made on Tuesday which I closed myself today.............now that really WAS a silly trade. When I went back through it I can't believe how stupid it was. Fortunately the money was very small, but the stupidy was astronomical and broke ALL the rules. One lives and learns my friend, one lives and learns. Control is of the essence, without doubt. I just hope I learn it!
  • #9,202
  • Jan 14, 2010 10:33am Jan 14, 2010 10:33am
Quoting Lotuselanman
I agree, it is hard to ignore…….rather like EURJPY which has been going up and down for quite a few months now. I've been reasonably successful with that one.

But why would you expect ‘the usual amount of abuse for this trade’? I know Strat can seem harsh sometimes but it is only because he hates seeing people putting their hard earned (usually) money at risk by taking trades that have low probability of success. After all if we could all trade successfully without driving ourselves nuts with worry we wouldn’t be on this thread would we?

It...
I know any crit would be a positive learning experience so I always brace myself when I post an opinion

I have another on the way.

Larry
  • #9,203
  • Jan 14, 2010 10:42am Jan 14, 2010 10:42am
On this one my question is, after that almost BEOB but actual BEEB should I wait for the lower low or can I enter a short under the low of that BEEB with my stop above the high of the BEEB. The problem is also the upcoming SR which is fairly strong and likely to cause a bit of interference with the move down. I also liked the way that the 20ma held the price down as well.

Larry
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  • #9,204
  • Jan 14, 2010 10:42am Jan 14, 2010 10:42am
Quoting mstandifer
GBPUSD Monthly shows clear consolidation but includes 2 minor lower highs and 2 minor higher lows....
GBPUSD Monthly shows clear consolidation but includes 2 minor lower highs and 2 minor higher lows. While price is trading in a definite range it's forming a coil if I've ever seen one.

Are coils at the monthly time frame that much more explosive when they resolve?

Oh yes.

Price and the 20 are both below the 50 indicating lower prices are ahead. In fact, the 20 is steadily drawing away from the 50 indicating increasing momentum to the downside.

Be very careful with this type of analysis using the MAs in this way. Watch PRICE more than MAs.

At some point in time, PRICE has to break through the MAs or it will forever go down – which it won’t.

Last month's bar was a strong bearish bar but it closed hard on support at 1.6100 indicating the buyers were not ready to let it go free fall. Given that last month was light volume and half of this month is light volume, it's quite possible to see a very wide IB this month when the big boys buy back what the wannabe's sold. However until the december bar is breached it is still in control to the downside.

Yes.

GBPUSD Weekly tells a different story. It shows a more defined range with price breaking the 20 and momentum actually pointing up. BUT the 50 is catching the 20 so upward momentum is slowing down. A possible indication that the end of the range may be nearing. There is congestion of past price between current price and major resistance at 1.6600 but if the range holds, that is the next stop.

Yes

Since the Big Boss tells everyone else what to do, the method tells me that this might be played up to 1.6600 (which is still inside last month's bar) with a trailing stop and probably back down again and then perhaps for the downside breakout.

Yes

GBPUSD Daily Price broke 2 important levels today. At today's open, it was in no trade land between the 20 and the 50 on both the daily and the weekly. Today it cleared both of those (at least on my charts). This is a very bullish sign. To me this overrides the 20 being below the 50...a sure sign of slowing momentum. Also the 20 and 50 are coming together, another sign of slowing downward momentum.

I would have gone long yesterday on the BUEB on a successful retest of 1.6100 but it was between the 20 and the 50. Maybe there are situations where it's ok to trade between the sheets?

Yes, but later.

In any case, since price is nearing congestion, there might be another opportunity for entry if price retraces. This one is going to 1.6600 or close to it before its all said in done. At least that's what my rookie trade-o-meter says.

Watch how it handles 1.6400 for further clues

Interestingly enough, the daily does not show as much of a coil as the monthly does but it does show a triangle (tightening range).

It never will as the Worker is just a fractal of the BIG BOSS.

Trade Plan for GBPUSD
Near term, I believe this is a buy up to 1.6600. Looking for a suitable price retrace for entry but it may not happen.

OK

Once at 1.6600 I'll be looking for PA to enter short.

NO!

What happens if PRICE blows through 1.6600?

Do NOT have a fixed bias on where you THINK PRICE might go. Keep an OPEN MIND and let PRICE tell you where it wants to go.

Marcus, be very careful on placing too much emphasis on the MAs for PRICE direction – watch the trend (H & L) more than the MAs otherwise you will be providing food for you know who and when you do, they will bite you REAL BAD!

15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,205
  • Jan 14, 2010 10:46am Jan 14, 2010 10:46am
Quoting el_duende
Hi Mstandifier

I think you have provided a pretty good analysis on GBP/USD. I am too looking at going long GBP/USD, however rahther than 1.66 I have 1.67 as my target.

Hi Strat too, been long time since I post :0, I promisee I be more regular here as this is best thread on forex factory
Hi Strat too, been long time since I post :0, I promisee I be more regular here as this is best thread on forex factory

Glad to see you back. Thanks for the compliment and wait until you see what's coming down the pipe.

This renewed interest has nothing to do with a failed Reds' season has it or have you been trying out all the other threads and Forums?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,206
  • Jan 14, 2010 11:10am Jan 14, 2010 11:10am
Quoting LarryK
Although cable is not really doing anything except cruise between one SR and another these past months I thought that a break through the previous high in this apparant return trip to 1.67 or higher was worth a trade. I realise that this is not classic PASR so expect the usual amount of abuse for this trade entry 16248 stop 16128 very small $/pip.

It really is hard to ignore the way cable seems to drift between these SR's.

Larry
Although cable is not really doing anything except cruise between one SR and another these past months I thought that a break through the previous high in this apparant return trip to 1.67 or higher was worth a trade. I realise that this is not classic PASR so expect the usual amount of abuse for this trade entry 16248 stop 16128 very small $/pip.

It really is hard to ignore the way cable seems to drift between these SR's.

Nothing wrong with your entry Larry although its not basic PASR which you need to master FIRST. You SAW the opportunity and acted – good.

There is a BIG problem with your SL though but you escaped with it this time. Will you next time? – I doubt it.

The current average daily range of GBPUSD is:

5 days – 128 pips
1 day - 133 pips
Weekly – 128 pips
Monthly – 137 pips

YOUR SL is 120 pips – do you see the problem?

You were lucky that the upward momentum was so strong that your SL was not taken out with the usual volatility of GBPUSD.

ADR aside, you MUST place your SL where it makes sense i.e., below the set up bar, below a swing low or below support.

Your SL was none of these – it was floating in space

At the very least you should have had it below the January 12 bar but a better place would have been below the low of the December 18 bar.

Now, having it at the correct place, you FIRST have to ask yourself if the RISK is worth the reward.

You should be more concerned with HOW MUCH YOU WILL LOSE than how much you will win ( # 1 RULE).

Larry, this is POOR DISCIPLINE and a VERY BAD HABIT to get into.



Re – read my posts on SL placement and from now on do not do anything different than what is written there.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,207
  • Jan 14, 2010 11:20am Jan 14, 2010 11:20am
Quoting LarryK
On this one my question is, after that almost BEOB but actual BEEB should I wait for the lower low or can I enter a short under the low of that BEEB with my stop above the high of the BEEB. The problem is also the upcoming SR which is fairly strong and likely to cause a bit of interference with the move down. I also liked the way that the 20ma held the price down as well.

Larry

Indeed it might/will! This means you are selling into Support which limits your Reward compared with your Risk. The positioning of your Stop above the Bearish candle will mean, I would think, that the trade is just not worth it - at least it wouldn't be worth it for me!

It's probably the sort of thing that people trading lower TFs would go for and have to watch the screen for the slightest move................ just NOT my scene that!
  • #9,208
  • Jan 14, 2010 11:23am Jan 14, 2010 11:23am
Quoting LarryK
On this one my question is, after that almost BEOB but actual BEEB should I wait for the lower low or can I enter a short under the low of that BEEB with my stop above the high of the BEEB. The problem is also the upcoming SR which is fairly strong and likely to cause a bit of interference with the move down. I also liked the way that the 20ma held the price down as well.

Larry
On this one my question is, after that almost BEOB but actual BEEB should I wait for the lower low or can I enter a short under the low of that BEEB with my stop above the high of the BEEB.

Providing you have evaluated your RISK, you would place a stop order below the low of the BEOB/BEEB on January 13 with your SL above the swing high which is the January 12 bar on my data.

The problem is also the upcoming SR which is fairly strong and likely to cause a bit of interference with the move down. I also liked the way that the 20ma held the price down as well.

Good observation. This is a typical sell of a pull back/rally and is an ATM trade for me down to support.

The problem is also the upcoming SR which is fairly strong and likely to cause a bit of interference with the move down.

The move down to where?

Are you trading WITHOUT a PLAN?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,209
  • Jan 14, 2010 12:00pm Jan 14, 2010 12:00pm
Quoting strat
On this one my question is, after that almost BEOB but actual BEEB should I wait for the lower low or can I enter a short under the low of that BEEB with my stop above the high of the BEEB.

Providing you have evaluated your RISK, you would place a stop order below the low of the BEOB/BEEB on January 13 with your SL above the swing high which is the January 12 bar on my data.

[b][i][color=blue][font=Arial]The problem is also the upcoming SR which is fairly strong and...
Your comments on SL for the cable trade are noted, I decided if it got to where I have my stop it was a failed trade.

The plan on EURCAD would have been to watch the PA at my SR with tightened stop with the hope that the move would go thru S and keep going.

Your comments always appreciated and I hope help others as well.

Larry
  • #9,210
  • Jan 14, 2010 12:27pm Jan 14, 2010 12:27pm
Quoting LarryK
Your comments on SL for the cable trade are noted, I decided if it got to where I have my stop it was a failed trade.

The plan on EURCAD would have been to watch the PA at my SR with tightened stop with the hope that the move would go thru S and keep going.

Your comments always appreciated and I hope help others as well.

Larry
Your comments on SL for the cable trade are noted, I decided if it got to where I have my stop it was a failed trade.

That is exactly the reason for SL – to protect us from a FAILED trade/move.

The SL has to go AT THAT POINT where you determine the trade/move would fail. This must always be above/below the set up bar, swings and SR or other obvious place.

If PRICE had come down to YOUR stop, it would not have been a failed trade.

The plan on EURCAD would have been to watch the PA at my SR with tightened stop with the hope that the move would go thru S and keep going.

There is NO HOPE in trading.

Hope is music to our demons and gremlins, little man in your head and the man in the mirror.

Do NOT entertain them.

Trading with hope ALWAYS results in blown accounts.

Our PLAN should NEVER be based on hope.

Our PLAN must ALWAYS be SPECIFIC
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,211
  • Jan 14, 2010 1:58pm Jan 14, 2010 1:58pm
Quoting LarryK
I know any crit would be a positive learning experience so I always brace myself when I post an opinion

I have another on the way.

Larry
Hi Larryhttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

As you are not afraid to post your trades and wait for comments, this one is for you. The worst case scenario is that Strat will tell you to go back to beginning of the Path and revisit, recheck past posts to ensure that you know and understand the stuff. We are all learning here even though sometimes it is not myself personally who makes the "learning" moves.

As we are supposed to wait for PA to reach SR and trade from there this is the only point that you miss here, but as long as you understand the risk and are prepare to put money here then its your trade.

You doing OK.

Happy trading http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Jideck
  • #9,212
  • Jan 14, 2010 3:01pm Jan 14, 2010 3:01pm
Am I right or am I wrong Strat?

The big boss is down, the boss is down, and the worker was up until he bumped into the boss.

If today's daily closes the way it is now it would be two Inside bars. Waiting for a break and hold below.
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  • #9,213
  • Jan 14, 2010 3:29pm Jan 14, 2010 3:29pm
breaking through support and tries not to do double bottom?
  • #9,214
  • Jan 14, 2010 3:31pm Jan 14, 2010 3:31pm
For those of us long with multiple positions, you need to think about protecting or taking profit on some (or all) as we approach resistance, the TL and psycho 1.6400.
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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,215
  • Jan 14, 2010 3:55pm Jan 14, 2010 3:55pm
Quoting dre3029
Am I right or am I wrong Strat?

The big boss is down, the boss is down, and the worker was up until he bumped into the boss.

If today's daily closes the way it is now it would be two Inside bars. Waiting for a break and hold below.
Am I right or am I wrong Strat?

YES!

It’s not a question of being right or wrong, it’s a question of being profitable or not. You can be “right” and still not be profitable.

For me, only the market is “right”. I never feel right or wrong – just profitable or losing my SL.

Being right or wrong triggers my demons, gremlins, little man in my head and the man in the mirror – they do enough damage without me giving them more “food”!

The big boss is down, the boss is down, and the worker was up until he bumped into the boss.

My BIG BOSS is UP and now bouncing off resistance.

My BOSS is DOWN

My Worker is DOWN, in the 20/50 trap and controlled by the January 12 bar AND resting on support.

If today's daily closes the way it is now it would be two Inside bars. Waiting for a break and hold below.

And the significance of 2 IBs is…………..?

Do not try to guess or anticipate this – EURUSD and USDCHF are DORMANT.

The markets are waiting for something – what, I don’t know and I don’t care, I just want to be ready when they move………………and move they will!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,216
  • Jan 14, 2010 4:14pm Jan 14, 2010 4:14pm
Quoting BaliuxXx
breaking through support and tries not to do double bottom?
Not for me, and I'm almost sure not for BOC!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,217
  • Edited 6:58pm Jan 14, 2010 6:35pm | Edited 6:58pm
You are dripping with good advice tonight. "Hope" is a sign to exit. And, indeed, one can be right and broke, particularly in the JPY pairs. And, regarding the analysis above.....I would doubt a bull trap here in USDJPY...if one is not an inside bar fan, then one must wait for stronger PA to buy; however, all things considered, it is a relatively safe buy stopped under the nearby support. In a volitile market, one doesn't get too many of these R/R ratios. The monthly E/J is driving my alalysis to some extent, in keeping with recent fundamental statements from the always alruistic Japanese policymakers. Indeed, your other pearl..... one can prepare but not anticipate the market. This is particularly true of E/J. When it breaks, the profits will be rich...and they will be funded by those unprepared to change their view.
  • #9,218
  • Jan 14, 2010 10:04pm Jan 14, 2010 10:04pm
Quoting strat
Hi Strat too, been long time since I post :0, I promisee I be more regular here as this is best thread on forex factory

Glad to see you back. Thanks for the compliment and wait until you see what's coming down the pipe.

This renewed interest has nothing to do with a failed Reds' season has it or have you been trying out all the other threads and Forums?
Sad days the Reds are not the same team they were last season, how can they change from almost winning the league to a complete fail team

I not been on this thread for a good few months but also I not been on forex factory at all much posting. The reason was I got too a point where I really needed to go it alone without any influences on my trading, I wanted to see how well I could do on my own. News is good 5 months demo and consistant profits, next step is I now have a live account (small funds in spreadbetting with IG index). At a big stage of trading now, want to see if I can produce same results with real money. Had a few trades already that have been positive. Currently have open trades in long GBP/USD and short EUR/GBP. So with small funded account it a case of another good few months to see how well I do.
  • #9,219
  • Jan 14, 2010 10:20pm Jan 14, 2010 10:20pm
Quoting BaliuxXx
breaking through support and tries not to do double bottom?
Hi USD/CAD very interesting right now, is this when support breaks? Funnymentals have been giving bad news for $ coupled with rising oil price you would expect more CAD strength, but im not one too trust the news lol However I think next week will show the way wether this a breakout or double bottom.

Also interesting is EUR/CAD, we now at major support at 1.48. Big boss, boss and dailies are all bearish (albeight weekly is an inverted hammer currently). Again one to watch here.
  • #9,220
  • Jan 14, 2010 11:58pm Jan 14, 2010 11:58pm
A week ago, almost to the hour my computer contracted a very bad virus, , probably from an email sent to me by a trusted but unknowing relative.

This happened despite a firewall and good virus protection. Apparently it is spreading. The repair shop had such a backlog that it is taking a week to get to and fix a customer's computer. In fact they recently put up a sign stating their turnaround time is a week or more.

You will know you have the virus when a screen pops up that may look like your own system telling you a virus has been detected. But it isn't your system. If you react to the screen pop up by pointing and clicking on anything, that is the way your computer will be infected. (Some are saying even then it is too late).

Instead you should either X out using the red/white X in the upper right hand corner of any windows screen. Or push the button turning off your computer. Then pray that the 'virus' screen is gone when you start up again.

The backup, clean and replace that is done really messed up all kinds of set ups, shortcuts and the like . I have yet to find my charting link.
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