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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #5,401
  • Jan 14, 2010 2:00pm Jan 14, 2010 2:00pm
Quoting FX Compass
Hi Ed, Check my posts on the last two pages.

This is the exact trade I talked through on the last two pages.

Price has come from the -23.6 therefore target is only the 127 extension.

Move the stop down and let the trade breath a little.

You should note that 127 has just been touched.
My Fib is drawn on yestarday's candle. High 1.6306, low 1.6134. 127 is at 1.6352, and on my chart that has NOT been touched. 1.6345 is the current high from what I can see. Is this an incorrect fib? Where is your fib drawn? I believe yesterday was the last completed candle. If 127 has been hit, this is likely gonna make it's way back down, right? If that's the case, I'll be stopped for sure. Is my fib right or wrong? thanks!

ed
  • #5,402
  • Jan 14, 2010 2:10pm Jan 14, 2010 2:10pm
I posted my question 7 minutes ago! What's takin so long for a reply???? I need pips NOW!!!!!! LOL. Just wanna thank everyone again for their help. I think you guys are gonna get me straightened around. It looks like everyone's fibs are different. Is that an optical illusion?

ed
  • #5,403
  • Edited 2:48pm Jan 14, 2010 2:31pm | Edited 2:48pm
``
Quoting edkilp
Well, I've been messing with this for a few weeks now, and I've come to the conclusion that I'm either A) completely dense, or B) at least moderately blind. I'm just not seein it. I draw these fibs on a daily candle, both complete and incomplete. I'm sure they're drawn in the right direction, but I've tried both ways. I just don't see what everyone else is seeing. I see no real defined support or resistance (most of the time), I'm clueless as to when to enter and exit, I read this thing several times. Price pierces this or that level. Then what...

Have you seen whats called a "1-2-3" set up? That's really all we are doing here. Sometimes it gets a little more complicated than that but really, that's all fibs do is predict where the "3" will end up. Let's start with the current GU chart. See how my fib is drawn. That sharp drop in price is probably a breakout from a previous "cycle". I have measured from the high to the low. From 100 to 0 is "1". Then price retraces up to the 50 line. That's "2". Then from there it goes all the way to the 138 line. That's "3". That's really all we are doing here. Trade the break of the 0 line.

On the next chart is the next cycle. Notice how my fib measures the whole move that took us to 138 on the first chart. Because price reversed we trade the break of the 100 line.

On chart 3 things got a little crazy but you still trade the breakout of the 100 line.

On chart 4 we had a spike. I believe that was the "Non farm payroll" news spike. After that spike, I stayed out. I wasn't trading GU at that time anyways.

On chart 5 we traded the break of the 0 line.

Chart 6 is kind of a continuation of chart 5 but I drew a new fib anyways.



I hope this helps.


Bartstop

Edit: I missed a cycle between chart 1 and 2. I will add a 7th chart.
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  • #5,404
  • Jan 14, 2010 3:00pm Jan 14, 2010 3:00pm
Of course these are all from a 4 hour chart. This is not how Compass does it but the concept is the same. Drawing fibs isn't rocket science. It takes some time but you'll figure it out.
  • #5,405
  • Jan 14, 2010 3:11pm Jan 14, 2010 3:11pm
Nice. If you you were to take them right back to basics, dump the fibs and trade the breakout of key support or resitance. The fibs just give us nice targets to aim for.

BarTstop, you'd be dissappointed, it rained heavily today and washed away most of the snow, we only have lemon slush puppies now.

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #5,406
  • Jan 14, 2010 3:12pm Jan 14, 2010 3:12pm
This right here is where I have trouble with drawing the fib from the daily high/low. Look at how price broke the 0 line then retreated all the way back to the 50 line, not once but twice. Where do you put your stop loss? above the 50 line? That's a lot of drawdown and a horrible risk/reward ratio. I've been bitten too many times. Some in this thread will actually tell you to put your SL at the 100 line! Guess what, I've lost that big trying it that way.

I'm still learing and I've come a long way but there are some flaws in the methods that Compass uses. I hope he doesn't get mad at me for saying that but it is what it is. Maybe I'm missing something?


Bartstop
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  • #5,407
  • Jan 14, 2010 3:15pm Jan 14, 2010 3:15pm
Quoting Misterdaz
BarTstop, you'd be dissappointed, it rained heavily today and washed away most of the snow, we only have lemon slush puppies now.

MD.
Not a problem, my fridge has an ice crusher and I can make my own "lemonade".


Bartstop
  • #5,408
  • Jan 14, 2010 3:17pm Jan 14, 2010 3:17pm
Quoting bartstop
This right here is where I have trouble with drawing the fib from the daily high/low. Look at how price broke the...
That's what I'm seeing all the time. Could be why it looks random to me. I know what's being said, and I know that there's lots of folks here confirming it, but it seems to have no rhyme or reason to me. I'm gettin outta here for a while so I don't go completely mad, but I'll be back fresh and ready to tackle it more in a bit.

ed
  • #5,409
  • Jan 14, 2010 3:26pm Jan 14, 2010 3:26pm
Quoting edkilp
That's what I'm seeing all the time. Could be why it looks random to me. I know what's being said, and I know that there's lots of folks here confirming it, but it seems to have no rhyme or reason to me. I'm gettin outta here for a while so I don't go completely mad, but I'll be back fresh and ready to tackle it more in a bit.

ed
Try the 4 hour and daily, you might have better luck. Also, try the AUDUSD. It's more "trendy" if you know what I mean.


Bartstop
  • #5,410
  • Jan 14, 2010 3:29pm Jan 14, 2010 3:29pm
A-Low
B-High
C-Retracement
D-Profit Target (10 pips below the 1.27 fib ext)
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  • #5,411
  • Jan 14, 2010 3:51pm Jan 14, 2010 3:51pm
Quoting bartstop
This right here is where I have trouble with drawing the fib from the daily high/low. Look at how price broke the...
Yes, you are missing something.

Ed, check your PM.
Keep smiling
  • #5,412
  • Jan 14, 2010 3:57pm Jan 14, 2010 3:57pm
Quoting FX Compass
PS If it reverses through the 78.6 @ 1.4743
Then the 50 becomes the target @ 1.4721.

All bases covered.
This applies the othe way up as well. Fib daily every day or daily with the move on 138 completions either end, not both, one is enough.

Mines a pint.

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #5,413
  • Jan 14, 2010 3:57pm Jan 14, 2010 3:57pm
Quoting Misterdaz
Yes, you are missing something.

Ed, check your PM.
So what do you do in that situation? Put a Sell Limit at the 50 line just as soon as you see the retracement beginning?


Edit: Sorry, you must have posted before I was done typing this.
  • #5,414
  • Jan 14, 2010 4:06pm Jan 14, 2010 4:06pm
A-Low
B-High
C-Possible Retracement
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  • #5,415
  • Jan 14, 2010 4:23pm Jan 14, 2010 4:23pm
Ok, let me know if this is correct.

1. You see a breakout from the previous cycle. Fib that breakout.

2. Place a Buy Stop at the 23.6 line. TP will be 50 line. SL will be just under the 0 line. (do you trade this move?)

3. When price moves above 38.2, move SL to BE.

4. When (if) price hits the 50 line, go short. TP will be 138 extension. SL will be just above the 61.8 line. Also place a Buy Stop just above the 61.8 line. SL would be just under the 38.2 line and TP will be 138.

Is that how you guys are trading this?


Bartstop
  • #5,416
  • Jan 14, 2010 4:52pm Jan 14, 2010 4:52pm
something like that but not as convoluted. Give me a while and I'll get back to you. I've got a virus to kill!

Come here you little B#sterd.

MD
Keep smiling
  • #5,417
  • Jan 14, 2010 5:25pm Jan 14, 2010 5:25pm
Quoting Misterdaz
something like that but not as convoluted. Give me a while and I'll get back to you. I've got a virus to kill!

Come here you little B#sterd.

MD
I know what you mean. I had one about 3 weeks ago. Mcafee couldn't detect it so I backed up everything to an external HD, formatted and started from scratch. I've gotten pretty good at it, remember windows 98?
  • #5,418
  • Jan 14, 2010 5:42pm Jan 14, 2010 5:42pm
Quoting bartstop
I know what you mean. I had one about 3 weeks ago. Mcafee couldn't detect it so I backed up everything to an external HD, formatted and started from scratch. I've gotten pretty good at it, remember windows 98?
...I wasn't born then.
Keep smiling
  • #5,419
  • Jan 14, 2010 5:49pm Jan 14, 2010 5:49pm
Quoting Misterdaz
...I wasn't born then.

Yea whatever............and I'm the Pope.
  • #5,420
  • Jan 14, 2010 6:31pm Jan 14, 2010 6:31pm
I remember Windows 3.1 mate, infact we only had IBM dumb terminals when I started in the banks.

Goodnight.
Keep smiling
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