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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #5,381
  • Jan 14, 2010 7:29am Jan 14, 2010 7:29am
Thom I hope you like it. Looks like this one already worked. Back and up for long eh?

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MD.
Keep smiling
  • #5,382
  • Jan 14, 2010 7:37am Jan 14, 2010 7:37am
Is this red candle's wick outlined in red considered a zero line break?
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  • #5,383
  • Jan 14, 2010 8:03am Jan 14, 2010 8:03am
A pierce, but not a break.
Keep smiling
  • #5,384
  • Jan 14, 2010 9:42am Jan 14, 2010 9:42am
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  • #5,385
  • Jan 14, 2010 11:04am Jan 14, 2010 11:04am
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  • #5,386
  • Jan 14, 2010 11:24am Jan 14, 2010 11:24am
Quoting FX Compass
Weekly Fib 0 Line (White) and Daily Fib -38.2 (Yellow) cluster at 1.6240.

Chances are we retrace to this level for a double tap on weekly 0 line and then up we go to extensions.

Or we break out above the Daily 0 line and to the extensions.

Either way we are headed long just a matter of which point will trigger the entry.
Anybody notice how accurately this Fib cluster played out.

GU retraced to just above the cluster as described in earlier post and has now broken through 0 line on its way to extensions.
  • #5,387
  • Jan 14, 2010 11:24am Jan 14, 2010 11:24am
Quoting Misterdaz
This is probably the kiss of death posting this trade but here goes. Target 0.9355. BarTstop, here's your chance to get your own back!

Attachment

MD.
Actually I went long at 9300 early in the Asian session (last night). I'm going to let this one run for a while as per Jacko's methods. It's been trending up since March. We'll see how far it goes.
  • #5,388
  • Jan 14, 2010 11:26am Jan 14, 2010 11:26am
Can you define what a break is since that is what we are suppose to trade instead of a peirce. Misterdaz told me that this red candle I have outlined is a peirce so I would not enter in on this candle right but instead I need to wait for a break right?
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  • #5,389
  • Jan 14, 2010 11:47am Jan 14, 2010 11:47am
Well, I've been messing with this for a few weeks now, and I've come to the conclusion that I'm either A) completely dense, or B) at least moderately blind. I'm just not seein it. I draw these fibs on a daily candle, both complete and incomplete. I'm sure they're drawn in the right direction, but I've tried both ways. I just don't see what everyone else is seeing. I see no real defined support or resistance (most of the time), I'm clueless as to when to enter and exit, I read this thing several times. Price pierces this or that level. Then what happens? I don't know!! It all seems totally random to me. I haven't recognized any patterns or cycles. I see nothing that tends to repeat itself. I draw a fib on a daily candle. It's an up day, so my 0 is at the top. Now I assume that I'm looking for price to retrace from that 0. I can see the price come down to the 23.6, then to the 38.2, then drops below the 50, then back up the the 50. Then below 50, then a bullish wick pierces the 38.2 and closes below it. Yada yada yada..... I don't think I can go back and read this again. It's frustrating the hell out of me. I'm OK with drawing the fibs. I'm convinced that this works, based on all the posts and charts from those more intelligent than me. I guess I don't know what the buy/sell signals are. I read the post from FX Compass about where price goes after it hits a certain fib level, but so far while running this on VHands, I haven't seen it yet. Looks random. He said it was 77% accurate from his testing, and I don't dispute that. Which direction are you talking about? Is price going up or down? Down to 23.6 will continue down to 127? Or is it the other way? I hate to give up on this, because I know it's a good thing. I'm just not gettin it. I mastered the guitar, and it took some time, so I know I have the dilligence to get this, but I think I need help. Anyway, I'm still a happy guy, but I needed to vent for a minute there!

ed
  • #5,390
  • Jan 14, 2010 12:07pm Jan 14, 2010 12:07pm
Hey Ed, I play bass but not as much as I like. I'd hate to see a fellow guitarist in stress!

So...there are 2 styles of fibbing being banded around here, Compass's which has a more structured approach and Thomknights which is a bit more subjective but very good none the less. I'm still working on Thom's.

They both have some things in common. The fib must be drawn correctly. For Compass fib every daily candle or, move the fib when one of the 138 completes to the daily candle that completes it.

They both look for entries on a break of the zero to the 138 extension. There some caveats to that plus Compass also looks for reversal trades to the 50% line from either direction. Concentrate on the external or outward moving trades first.

The only contention at the moment is entry, do we take a trade when price pierces our zero line or wait for it to close above it or something else?

Thom is so confident in his style that once all the boxes are ticked for his setup I believe he takes the next pierce of the line. Don't try to work out thom's yet. Thom sorry if I have misquoted you in any way.

If I can shed any more light on this for you I will. I'm sure the other guys will too.

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #5,391
  • Jan 14, 2010 12:34pm Jan 14, 2010 12:34pm
Use a stop. Some would beg to differ but starting out, getting on your feet, use a sensible stop. Also, if you get into reasonable profit, move your stop up behind it to protect it. There are caveats to this to but they can be developed.

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #5,392
  • Jan 14, 2010 12:36pm Jan 14, 2010 12:36pm
Thanks for coming to my rescue. I think I get what you're saying, but...... If I draw a fib on an up candle, the 0 is at the top. On the candle I'm looking at right now, the price doesn't come close to 0. It goes all the way down thru the 100, right to the -138.2. Based on what you said, would I sit here and watch all those pips pass me by, waiting for the price to make it all the way back to the 0, which after 24 hours so far, hasn't even hinted at happening? Now, since that candle did hit the -138, I waited for it to complete, then moved the fib to the newly completed candle, which was the next day. It was a down day, so my 0 is on the bottom. Price hung around the 0 for a few hours, made an attempt at 38.2 four hours in a row, pierced the 0 3 times before closing just below the 0. If I'm not a complete imbecile, I'm thinkin that that's a signal to go short. The next candle closed clearly below the 0 and continued down, not quite reaching -200. Then it started back up, with me sitting here not knowing when I should have gotten out. So if I'm waiting for price to break thru the 0, I sould be sitting here a long time waiting for that to happen, right? On the other hand, you have guys here posting charts every hour, all excited about the next big move! I won't give up, just because I refuse to accept defeat. I just wanna be clear about this 0 level. What about 100? If the price breaks 100 isn't that the same as it breaking 0, just the opposite direction? I don't mean to sound greedy, but I really don't wanna sit here and look at charts for days on end, waiting for the price to turn around. Is that what you all do? Thanks for the guidance....I'm sure I'll need more!

ed
  • #5,393
  • Jan 14, 2010 12:43pm Jan 14, 2010 12:43pm
Aud /Usd hit the 1.618 after it retraced to the 50% Line. I think im gonna start trading this currency more because of the low margin!!!!
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  • #5,394
  • Jan 14, 2010 1:02pm Jan 14, 2010 1:02pm
Quoting Checkz
Can you define what a break is since that is what we are suppose to trade instead of a peirce. Misterdaz told me that this red candle I have outlined is a peirce so I would not enter in on this candle right but instead I need to wait for a break right?
Hi Checkz,

I view a break as the candle body closing through the line and a pierce as the wick only running through the line. As previously stated, the candle wick tends to represent volatility on the candle and not true price which is shown in the body.

I am always more interested in how the body reacts to the line than anything else. If it costs me a few pips to get in, I have more insurance to confirm that the move is for real when the body closes through the line.
  • #5,395
  • Jan 14, 2010 1:10pm Jan 14, 2010 1:10pm
Hey Skunny,

Been reading this thread for a while and I really find your approach very unique. I've been down the path of layering indicators onto my chart...don't want to go there again.
  • #5,396
  • Jan 14, 2010 1:15pm Jan 14, 2010 1:15pm
Quoting edkilp
Thanks for coming to my rescue. I think I get what you're saying, but...... If I draw a fib on an up candle, the...
Hi Ed,

I don't like to see anyone really trying to understand this, struggle.
There seems to be a bit of confusion with entries.

Please re-read Post 5352 on Page 357 very carefully, it is extremely important for reading entries. It shows perfectly how price reacts at the line and what it is going to do next.

Candles will always tell you what price is intending to do before it actually finally does it. Concentrate on watching how each candle reacts at a trigger level like the 0 line.

Does it close closer to the line on the second approach ?,
Does it form a number of candles at the line whereas before it left quickly with less candles at the line ?,
Does the second approach to the line look more aggresive than the first ?,
All these signs tell you whether price is going to respect the line or break it in a certain direction.

If you are still not sure, let me know and I'll put up a more detailed chart.
  • #5,397
  • Jan 14, 2010 1:16pm Jan 14, 2010 1:16pm
skunny's been gone for ages. still lotsa good traders here though. you should stick around.

ed
  • #5,398
  • Jan 14, 2010 1:38pm Jan 14, 2010 1:38pm
Quoting FX Compass
Hi Ed,

I don't like to see anyone really trying to understand this, struggle.
There seems to be a bit of confusion with entries.

Please re-read Post 5352 on Page 357 very carefully, it is extremely important for reading entries. It shows perfectly how price reacts at the line and what it is going to do next.

Candles will always tell you what price is intending to do before it actually finally does it. Concentrate on watching how each candle reacts at a trigger level like the...
OK, that makes sense and I'll study that in great detail. In the meantime, I'm looking at the GBPUSD. I'll try to post a chart, but I never did it before. My fib is on yesterday's candle. Price pierced the 0 twice, then closed above, then below, then above 3 candles in a row. I got in there, expecting it to go all the way to 138. I set a stop at 1.6319, and it's about to be hit. Would you move this stop down, and let it play out a bit? Do you think it's gonna make it all the way to 138? Anyway, thanks for the help, and please let me know if I'm on the right track here.

ed
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  • #5,399
  • Jan 14, 2010 1:48pm Jan 14, 2010 1:48pm
Quoting edkilp
OK, that makes sense and I'll study that in great detail. In the meantime, I'm looking at the GBPUSD. I'll try to post a chart, but I never did it before. My fib is on yesterday's candle. Price pierced the...
Hi Ed, Check my posts on the last two pages.

This is the exact trade I talked through on the last two pages.

Price has come from the -23.6 therefore target is only the 127 extension.

Move the stop down and let the trade breath a little.

You should note that 127 has just been touched.
  • #5,400
  • Jan 14, 2010 1:54pm Jan 14, 2010 1:54pm
Quoting FX Compass
Hi Checkz,

I view a break as the candle body closing through the line and a pierce as the wick only running through the line. As previously stated, the candle wick tends to represent volatility on the candle and not true price which is shown in the body.

I am always more interested in how the body reacts to the line than anything else. If it costs me a few pips to get in, I have more insurance to confirm that the move is for real when the body closes through the line.
I think I got it now
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