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AUD/USD

  • #13,301
  • Jan 13, 2010 7:15pm Jan 13, 2010 7:15pm
i m not sure about the direction of this pair but lookin at the last employment report , it was positive too and i look back to the charts and i see the pair spiked up just like what it did not and then it fall back and couldnt really make an advancing position even after couple of days of this report
i m shorting it and i ll be hedging if it goes over 9330
it never happened in this par for like 4 month that it makes such a rally without any retracment , it didnt touch more than 25% ret. which is very unusual , when it rallied before , it came back most of the times to the 50% ret. before it goes up further
  • #13,302
  • Jan 13, 2010 7:16pm Jan 13, 2010 7:16pm
Quoting Jesus4748
i m not sure about the direction of this pair but lookin at the last employment report , it was positive too and i look back to the charts and i see the pair spiked up just like what it did not and then it fall back and couldnt really make an advancing position even after couple of days of this report
i m shorting it and i ll be hedging if it goes over 9330
it never happened in this par for like 4 month that it makes such a rally without any retracment , it didnt touch more than 25% ret. which is very unusual , when it rallied before , it came...
check ur charts guys on the 10th of dec .
  • #13,303
  • Jan 13, 2010 7:20pm Jan 13, 2010 7:20pm
My trade confirm one of economy asisiten,he said AUDUSD will continue UP ride...WE will see...I watch now CNBC
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #13,304
  • Jan 13, 2010 7:22pm Jan 13, 2010 7:22pm
Quoting puks
Lets see. I am short with S/L of .9330
i was short also, but we still have to be careful though, don't forget to use risk management, so it prevent a big loss if the movement go against our position.
  • #13,305
  • Jan 13, 2010 7:24pm Jan 13, 2010 7:24pm
Quoting yeri
i was short also, but we still have to be careful though, don't forget to use risk management, so it prevent a big loss if the movement go against our position.
HMm,guys why after good News for Aus economy you opening a sell ? :O
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #13,306
  • Jan 13, 2010 7:27pm Jan 13, 2010 7:27pm
Quoting Jesus4748
i m not sure about the direction of this pair but lookin at the last employment report , it was positive too and i look back to the charts and i see the pair spiked up just like what it did not and then it fall back and couldnt really make an advancing position even after couple of days of this report
i m shorting it and i ll be hedging if it goes over 9330
it never happened in this par for like 4 month that it makes such a rally without any retracment , it didnt touch more than 25% ret. which is very unusual , when it rallied before , it came...
I have also looked at this, on the 10th Dec the rally consolidated on the Thursday then went higher early on Friday completing a pattern upwards before selling off. If that same pattern completes this time it takes us up into 9350ish before a sustained down move.
  • #13,307
  • Jan 13, 2010 7:37pm Jan 13, 2010 7:37pm
To illustrate what i am meaning, the LH chart is 10 Dec and the RH chart is now
On dec 10 the market moved higher on Friday into 9196 which is an ideal sell setup in a downtrend.
To get the same sell signal price needs to move up into 9354, the setup at the moment looks like a high risk short to me.
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  • #13,308
  • Jan 13, 2010 7:37pm Jan 13, 2010 7:37pm
Quoting puks
Lets see. I am short with S/L of .9330
Hey Puks - I think I would feel more comfortable shorting if we were closer to our average weekly range of 300 pips. I've got conflicting signals on my Jurik charts - daily has just turned down but weekly has just turned up. If we get a dose of risk aversion later this week then things may change.

I'm on the sidelines with the USDX as well. Seems such a waste to produce that massive monthly reversal candle and not have follow through but I don't like the look of the daily or the weekly. Four hour looks more positive though with divergence and support from 200 SMA and although you don't believe in gaps, there is a gap from the beginning of the week We will see I guess.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #13,309
  • Jan 13, 2010 7:39pm Jan 13, 2010 7:39pm
WTF I put a at limit long on early this morning @ 0.9215 as I was anticipating good employment data and had to go out for a couple of hours I just got back and oh my god my buy has gone through and someone must have been shaking that money tree hard for Dady because I'm now over 70 pipis richer lol
  • #13,310
  • Jan 13, 2010 7:40pm Jan 13, 2010 7:40pm
Quoting Petar_Serbia
HMm,guys why after good News for Aus economy you opening a sell ? :O
Hmm, maybe you right. Could reach .94 Would make sense to see Usd/Cad reach 1.02 I'm no longer Long USD at the moment. I'm short a GBP basket.
GBP/JPY, GBP/AUD, GBP/CAD, GBP/CHF, and GBP/USD.
  • #13,311
  • Jan 13, 2010 7:42pm Jan 13, 2010 7:42pm
Quoting Clouds
Hmm, maybe you right. Could reach .94 Would make sense to see Usd/Cad reach 1.02 I'm no longer Long USD at the moment. I'm short a GBP basket.
GBP/JPY, GBP/AUD, GBP/CAD, GBP/CHF, and GBP/USD.
.10 lots each
  • #13,312
  • Jan 13, 2010 7:45pm Jan 13, 2010 7:45pm
35200 more jobs,jobs rate drops 5.5 % in Austraila...
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #13,313
  • Jan 13, 2010 7:49pm Jan 13, 2010 7:49pm
Quoting Daytrader74
WTF I put a at limit long on early this morning @ 0.9215 as I was anticipating good employment data and had to go out for a couple of hours I just got back and oh my god my buy has gone through and someone must have been shaking that money tree hard for Dady because I'm now over 70 pipis richer lol
WOW, luck is definitely on your side!!

I missed the big move up, in meeting with the boss but got on a long at 0.9280 hoping it may go up to about 0.9300?

It does seem to be hitting some resistance at 0.9295, thinking of getting out though, not feel real confident, what do ya reckon?
  • #13,314
  • Jan 13, 2010 7:52pm Jan 13, 2010 7:52pm
Quoting shoeysfish
WOW, luck is definitely on your side!!

I missed the big move up, in meeting with the boss but got on a long at 0.9280 hoping it may go up to about 0.9300?

It does seem to be hitting some resistance at 0.9295, thinking of getting out though, not feel real confident, what do ya reckon?
Don't worry there's always next time...
I see it going up to about 0.9320 -0.9330 then back down to about 0.9250 - 0.9260
  • #13,315
  • Jan 13, 2010 7:55pm Jan 13, 2010 7:55pm
  •  Ronin77
  • | Joined Dec 2008 | Status: เงินกินเปล่า | 95 Posts
Quoting Daytrader74
WTF I put a at limit long on early this morning @ 0.9215 as I was anticipating good employment data and had to go out for a couple of hours I just got back and oh my god my buy has gone through and someone must have been shaking that money tree hard for Dady because I'm now over 70 pipis richer lol

Damn this guy is an idiot.
Ronin77
  • #13,316
  • Jan 13, 2010 7:57pm Jan 13, 2010 7:57pm
Quoting Petar_Serbia
35200 more jobs,jobs rate drops 5.5 % in Austraila...
7,300 full time employemnt
27K part-time employment

People can't buy houses with p/t employment

Higher interest rate has already affected housing market - people are not buying as much.

I think I am the only one here who is shorting this pair.

But I will hedge if it breaks above .9330
  • #13,317
  • Jan 13, 2010 7:58pm Jan 13, 2010 7:58pm
Quoting Daytrader74
Don't worry there's always next time...
I see it going up to about 0.9320 -0.9330 then back down to about 0.9250 - 0.9260
Yeh your right, lets do some serious shaking then!!
  • #13,318
  • Jan 13, 2010 7:59pm Jan 13, 2010 7:59pm
Quoting puks
7,300 full time employemnt
27K part-time employment

People can't buy houses with p/t employment

Higher interest rate has already affected housing market - people are not buying as much.

I think I am the only one here who is shorting this pair.

But I will hedge if it breaks above .9330
By hedge do you mean "lock in losses"?

I am short NZD and EUR but about to go long AUD and CHF in 1 minute.
  • #13,319
  • Jan 13, 2010 7:59pm Jan 13, 2010 7:59pm
Quoting Ronin77
Damn this guy is an idiot.
Why?
  • #13,320
  • Jan 13, 2010 8:02pm Jan 13, 2010 8:02pm
Quoting Patience
Hey Puks - I think I would feel more comfortable shorting if we were closer to our average weekly range of 300 pips. I've got conflicting signals on my Jurik charts - daily has just turned down but weekly has just turned up. If we get a dose of risk aversion later this week then things may change.

I'm on the sidelines with the USDX as well. Seems such a waste to produce that massive monthly reversal candle and not have follow through but I don't like the look of the daily or the weekly. Four hour looks more positive though with divergence and...

Hi Patience,

I was long this pair with TP of .9340 but when I looked at the numbers closely, they added more P/T jobs than full time jobs. 27K vs 7.3K.

+ China story is still there. Credit tightening by china + by Australia = Not a good story for Australian economy

On the back of worse than expected NFP numbers, USD is not getting spanked.

Daily is pointing downwards (Stochs)

Risk aversion is still on.

After taking into account all these massive factors, all I am asking is a little over 100 pips :-))

I will scale in at .9320 with S/L at .9330-35.

Just imagine the change in market sentiment, if and when, US retails sales numbers are better than expected....

Next 24 hours will tell the story. I may be wrong, I may be right...
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