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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #21,801
  • Jan 13, 2010 11:48am Jan 13, 2010 11:48am
I'm in on this one with you for the same reasons Saka.
I got in a bit late (0.9222) but like you said, those double tails were what got me in.
I also like that the last RT (round top) was divergent...TC's like this one against the most recent trend work best when there is divergence. And there is also the weekend gap....those 2 tails test top of gap but fail to close above. All the little things that add up to increase our chances eh!

My target = 0.9150
SL is above double tails.



Quoting saka
I have entered AU's 4h trade 16:00 GMT+1. Because it has resisitanted by the shoulder horizontal line formed from last sHs, even though it didn't form a TC signal at 4h chart, but I like the double tails, it has the same meaning to me compared to TC signal.

I use half profit obtained today which is almost 1.5% risk of my capital to open some short position. Enter at 0.9239 with 32pips sl. I hope price to go to 200sma of 4h chart and I will close some position mannually after some profit obtained. now because it had cracked down during 16:00 GMT+1,...
  • #21,802
  • Jan 13, 2010 1:01pm Jan 13, 2010 1:01pm
Quoting saka
I have entered AU's 4h trade 16:00 GMT+1. Because it has resisitanted by the shoulder horizontal line formed from last sHs, even though it didn't form a TC signal at 4h chart, but I like the double tails, it has the same meaning to me compared to TC signal.

I use half profit obtained today which is almost 1.5% risk of my capital to open some short position. Enter at 0.9239 with 32pips sl. I hope price to go to 200sma of 4h chart and I will close some position mannually after some profit obtained. now because it had cracked down during 16:00 GMT+1,...
I am also in the same trade due to the reasons mentioned and Last night I put up a chart that we might be have a 1-2-3 formation in the works and although not confirmed with TC on MACD I like the small little double tails as well. Entry @ 92.2264 with SL at 92.2700
Keeping Life Simple
  • #21,803
  • Jan 13, 2010 1:28pm Jan 13, 2010 1:28pm
Quoting saka
I have longed eu at 8:00 GMT+1 for its TC signal with 3% risk. I closed them all before 200SMA, 3% ROE
Hi Saka! Nice to see you too. And I was on E/U trade with you . Nice TC.
I also took A/U trade, guilty - without a signal, let's see how it works.

Ira
  • #21,804
  • Jan 13, 2010 1:33pm Jan 13, 2010 1:33pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
The trade I did yesterday. Have put my stop at BE overnight and got stopped out at BE. It was a pity as the move was nice and big. But that is part of trading.
The Master is here .
Very good trade Phillip, too bad it didn't run straight, but you were right as usual, and that is the most important.

Ira
  • #21,805
  • Edited 4:04pm Jan 13, 2010 3:48pm | Edited 4:04pm
I took the AUD trade like others. I posted the Daily yesterday..evening star on the daily and was also looking for a TC on the 4 hr or other candle formations with indicated to go short. I actually did get a TC, but I could not see it at work, but I can see the candle formations. I entered on the 1 hour ... candle with the down arrow as my indicator candle. I closed my trade already at just a couple of pips in the negative. To those who still have there trade open, best of luck. I just didn't like those tails on the 1 hrs and an inability to make a lower low. Maybe a bit premature, I guess we'll see

Edit: Ira...nice to see you post. You probably don't remember me (didn't post too much back then), but I remember your posts. I enjoy your analysis
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  • #21,806
  • Jan 14, 2010 12:56am Jan 14, 2010 12:56am
Looks like a few of us were in on this one.
My stops got hit so it was a loss for me. Luckily I only traded it with small micro account because its not a pair I usually trade and also because I got in a bit late on it.
Still, to me the daily suggested a bit more of a push downwards so I'll take the hit as a legit one
  • #21,807
  • Jan 14, 2010 1:46am Jan 14, 2010 1:46am
Quoting Morelands
I took the AUD trade like others. I posted the Daily yesterday..evening star on the daily and was also looking for a TC on the 4 hr or other candle formations with indicated to go short. I actually did get a TC, but I could not see it at work, but I can see the candle formations. I entered on the 1 hour ... candle with the down arrow as my indicator candle. I closed my trade already at just a couple of pips in the negative. To those who still have there trade open, best of luck. I just didn't like those tails on the 1 hrs and an inability to make...
Too bad I was at sleep and couldn't make the same wise decision as you. There was finally a signal, but with a tail down, so I don't think it was valid. At least I wouldn't have taken it.
Well, that it is one of two possible scenarios, after the break of 21 and retracment to it, the price can go to the 89 or the trend may resume.
It is the second time this year I've been caught jumping in front of the train. It is better to wait for signal conformation in this situations.

Thanks Morelands for kind words, I do remember you .
  • #21,808
  • Jan 14, 2010 8:13am Jan 14, 2010 8:13am
it seems that so many friend tood this AU trade. Me too, the sl was hitted which cost 1% loss of my capital.

Look at USD index daily chart, it is still show some low volatililty, I think it may retrace to some fib level before another rally up.
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Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #21,809
  • Jan 14, 2010 3:17pm Jan 14, 2010 3:17pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
The trade I did yesterday. Have put my stop at BE overnight and got stopped out at BE. It was a pity as the move was nice and big. But that is part of trading.
i did the same thing
  • #21,810
  • Jan 15, 2010 12:54am Jan 15, 2010 12:54am
I took this trade last night based on the fact that price was right at the resistance level (daily chart) , overbought (check out RSI that I am not posting because I have it on Phillip's combobox template which you have to pay for....) and MACD divergence.
For a better entry I looked at the 4H and saw the little red doji followed by small candles that indicated loss in momentum and then to the 1H where there was a roundtop and MACD divergence.
For the entry I always like to look at Phillip's combobox 5min template and enter when RSI is at the top (in the case I want to go short or viceversa..). That gives me a better entry and a bigger stoploss.
Hope that helps.
Sold 0.9310
Took profit this morning at 0.9270 manually. Might still go down but I was happy with it.
Cheers
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  • #21,811
  • Jan 16, 2010 11:47am Jan 16, 2010 11:47am
Here is my analysis hoping to spur some discussion. The EUR/USD I think is possible going to break out of this 4th wave consolidation to go to at least it's previous lows of 1.4220. On the daily I have shown a blue rectangle showing previous resistance which turn into support until Fri. Price closed below this level on Fri. The purple moving avg is the 55 on the daily which Welshguy has referred to in his videos. Before the recent run down before Christmas the 55 MA was acting as support for the up move. What was previously support becomes resistance as the rule goes. Price this week made it back up to the 55 MA and found resistance and began to pull away. I don't know if it is a evening star when you have the 3 spinner before Friday's move, but it definately shows a war between the bulls and the bears. On the 4 hr price has gone to the bottom of the price channel. I'm looking for price to go up and find resistance on the 8 and/or 21. A nice TC would be great. Now lets just see if the market supports this theory.
Well that is just about it. That is pretty verbose for me, just ask my wife
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  • #21,812
  • Jan 16, 2010 12:32pm Jan 16, 2010 12:32pm
Good Evening Morelands,

I'm really impressed with your analysis - you are completely correct on almost everything - this is the finial 5th wave down from the daily chart - I am currently short of 1.4480, with a target area about 1.3850 zone.

Will cover more detail stuff in the trade review next week. Well done & keep up the hard work

If there are any video requests then please email me, I will be covering western technicals in lesson 5 next week.

Cheers WG

Quoting Morelands
Here is my analysis hoping to spur some discussion....
  • #21,813
  • Jan 16, 2010 7:32pm Jan 16, 2010 7:32pm
Hello.

Very impressive thread. Lots of material and a whole bunch of information. This is way more than a trading strategy.

Well: I'm quite new here and with Forex. MAybe about a year. Still just collecting information and trying to find out if I think I can find a way to trade for myself.

So since I'm working trough this strategy - maybe I should better say "overall trading course with a strategy attached" - I studied all the imperessive links, sheets, docs and mp3s listet on post #1.
This was a lot of useful input.

I know about the RR rules, but would like a clarification since it seemes to be quiet common to have more than just one profit target for one trade (eg. 50%@1,3000; 50%@1,3020).

So my question is:
How do you all, or especially you Philipp calculate your RR ratio.
Do you use your average TP target for the calculation (in this case 1,3010) or just the closest (1,3000)?
I guess you all know why I need to know this, because either way will give way more or less potentional entry signals.

Greetings.
MikeFT
  • #21,814
  • Jan 16, 2010 11:09pm Jan 16, 2010 11:09pm
Hi Moorlands and Welshguy,

I would have to agree with you guys as well as the last bearish engulfing candle also gives us a good confirmation of a further move down.

I wanted to ask Moorlands or Welshguy if you guys can plot the waves for the Eur/Usd as it would be a great education lesson to those learning about elliot wave theory such as myself as I have been trying to incorporate that into my trading regime.

I would love to see how you guys would draw the waves to confirm 4th or 5th wave and the others preceding them. We have had a nice up trend on the daily and so how would you guys draw your waves on that uptrend and when price broke the 89sma to the 200sma..........does that constitute a 1-2-3 correction and how did you come up with the 4th wave? I would love to get you guys advice and opinions on this.

Regards,
Keeping Life Simple
  • #21,815
  • Jan 17, 2010 2:38pm Jan 17, 2010 2:38pm
Quoting time1300
Hi Moorlands and Welshguy,

I would have to agree with you guys as well as the last bearish engulfing candle also gives us a good confirmation of a further move down.

I wanted to ask Moorlands or Welshguy if you guys can plot the waves for the Eur/Usd as it would be a great education lesson to those learning about elliot wave theory such as myself as I have been trying to incorporate that into my trading regime.

I would love to see how you guys would draw the waves to confirm 4th or 5th wave and the others preceding them. We have had a nice...
FYI. Here is my take on it from a EW point of view.

The W.5.5 of C was very much like an ending 5th wave diagonal in that it wasn't impusive. You could even called it a 5th Wave Failure. Maybe thats why there was a near 1000 pip drop. EW can be subjective at the best of times. Each person can count different. I like to try and keep it simple and not get bogged down with paralyse of analysis!!

Good Luck

Neil
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  • #21,816
  • Jan 17, 2010 2:58pm Jan 17, 2010 2:58pm
Here's my understanding of the wave. I'm not an expert by any means, but the second wave was very short in terms of length. When the second wave is that short, you would expect the 4th wave to be long in terms of length and have a much larger pull back. If you go over WG GBP/USD trade of the 21st of Oct (140 pips) he goes over some of this.
Edit: some things are missing like fibs and the 55 MA because I had to create a new chart.
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  • #21,817
  • Jan 17, 2010 5:16pm Jan 17, 2010 5:16pm
Quoting neilbuc
FYI. Here is my take on it from a EW point of view.

The W.5.5 of C was very much like an ending 5th wave diagonal in that it wasn't impusive. You could even called it a 5th Wave Failure. Maybe thats why there was a near 1000 pip drop. EW can be subjective at the best of times. Each person can count different. I like to try and keep it simple and not get bogged down with paralyse of analysis!!

Good Luck

Neil
neil,

Thank you for your analysis. The reason I mentioned and asked about elliot wave is not only for myself but few of our analysis and take profit have been based on that and have been mentioned on this forum and thought maybe others might also be curious about it. What i have also found is just like you said, EW can be very subjective at the best and how each person interpretes each wave that is why i myself have just been studying it but not so much incorporated it into my trading. I myself like to keep it as simple as possible but it is always good to learn more and keep learning different aspects of trading and then filter the ones that work for your and those that don't. Thank you though for the response to my email.
Keeping Life Simple
  • #21,818
  • Jan 17, 2010 5:36pm Jan 17, 2010 5:36pm
Quoting Morelands
Here's my understanding of the wave. I'm not an expert by any means, but the second wave was very short in terms of length. When the second wave is that short, you would expect the 4th wave to be long in terms of length and have a much larger pull back. If you go over WG GBP/USD trade of the 21st of Oct (140 pips) he goes over some of this.
Edit: some things are missing like fibs and the 55 MA because I had to create a new chart.
Hi Morelands,

Thank you for taking the time to creating a chart to interpret your understanding of the wave. As I mentioned before and Neil touched on it that EW can be subjective. I mean when we are dealing with moving averages for example, anyone having the 21ema can interpret where price has touched it or bounced off of it and so forth. I have also displayed my chart and how I kind of interpreted the move. As you guys can see I have included a big wave with an example of a small wave within a wave as that is my understanding of the wave construction and as you can see the big 1-2-3-4-5- wave up to the high has small formations as well within itself as illustrated at the beginning of the wave which has a correction of 3 waves which i have labeled a-b-c. So after the 5th wave, we need an A-B-C correction and that is how I have labeled my chart as i saw it which I might not be correct or I might be. so with my interpretation as well, we still need to finish a C wave to the downside to complete that whole wave. And within that A-B-C corrective wave, there is smaller wave cycles within the A-B-C wave as well which I have not illustrated on that chart..........But that is How I had illustrated them on my chart and it is always good to get opinions and ideas from fellow traders.

Anyone else care to share any ideas or comments, would be great as we can always learn from each other..

thank you again Niel and Morelands for their interpretation.
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Keeping Life Simple
  • #21,819
  • Jan 17, 2010 7:37pm Jan 17, 2010 7:37pm
That was great Niel and Time1300! It is really about interpretation and a piece of the puzzle. However, all of our charts, whether it was the ABC correction or the 5th wave, showed that a down move was highly probable.
  • #21,820
  • Jan 17, 2010 7:53pm Jan 17, 2010 7:53pm
Quoting welshguy2000
Good Evening Morelands,

I'm really impressed with your analysis - you are completely correct on almost everything - this is the finial 5th wave down from the daily chart - I am currently short of 1.4480, with a target area about 1.3850 zone.

Will cover more detail stuff in the trade review next week. Well done & keep up the hard work

If there are any video requests then please email me, I will be covering western technicals in lesson 5 next week.

Cheers WG
Thanks WG, I learned a lot of it from your videos.
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