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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #5,281
  • Jan 11, 2010 7:16am Jan 11, 2010 7:16am
I was waiting for a pullback to enter as I missed the initial move. Never got one. There's always another trade coming along.

Nevermind.

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #5,282
  • Jan 11, 2010 7:25am Jan 11, 2010 7:25am
Is there a way to Know which Fib Ext, Price will go to when fibbing the daily single candle. Like if it's going to the 1.382 or the 1.618. I know Skunny said that the 1.618 is irrelevant but I thought that maybe you had some inside info on the matter.
  • #5,283
  • Jan 11, 2010 7:33am Jan 11, 2010 7:33am
Quoting Misterdaz
I was waiting for a pullback to enter as I missed the initial move. Never got one. There's always another trade coming along.

Nevermind.

MD.
So true!
  • #5,284
  • Jan 11, 2010 10:33am Jan 11, 2010 10:33am
I was looking over my Gbp/Usd Chart and noticed that on one of my older charts I had left the fibs drawn on the 1/7/10 daily single candle so I left them there and decided to draw fibs on the next daily candle (Thanks to FxCompass & Misterdaz) on 1/08/10 and I noticed that today's candle on 1/11/10 hit both 1.382 fib ext. Now I will remove my old fibs and at the close of the day draw a new set of fibs on todays candle and start the game all over again. Man this fib stuff is something else!!!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,285
  • Jan 11, 2010 12:00pm Jan 11, 2010 12:00pm
There's a couple of ways of doing this. You can move your fib every day to the next days finished candle, or you can try this. Go back a ways, a month should be enough. Fib a daily candle, only move that fib when one of the 138's get hit. When they get hit move it to the finished candle that hits. Sometimes when you fib a daily candle then zoom to an hour the fib does not fall on a complete swing but this is quite rare. More often than not the daily fib will encompass a major high and low. Go and have fun fibbling with yourself.

I typed this on my Iphone so the odd word could be wrong due to autocomplete.

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #5,286
  • Jan 11, 2010 12:10pm Jan 11, 2010 12:10pm
Quoting Misterdaz
There's a couple of ways of doing this. You can move your fib every day to the next days finished candle, or you can try this. Go back a ways, a month should be enough. Fib a daily candle, only move that fib when one of the 138's get hit. When they get hit move it to the finished candle that hits. Sometimes when you fib a daily candle then zoom to an hour the fib does not fall on a complete swing but this is quite rare. More often than not the daily fib will encompass a major high and low. Go and have fun fibbling with yourself.

I typed this on...
Will do Thanks
  • #5,287
  • Jan 11, 2010 1:50pm Jan 11, 2010 1:50pm
Quoting Checkz
Is there a way to Know which Fib Ext, Price will go to when fibbing the daily single candle. Like if it's going to the 1.382 or the 1.618. I know Skunny said that the 1.618 is irrelevant but I thought that maybe you had some inside info on the matter.

I was waiting for this question to come up, probably the most important question asked so far. You are going to make a great trader Checkz.

Make sure you are sitting down when you test this out, it will blow your mind. Important note : retracement level means the largest retracement level in the wave you are measuring.

Retracement level to Target level : Accuracy 77% from past testing.

23.6% goes to 127%
38.2% goes to 138.2%
50/61.8% goes to 161.8%
78.6% goes to 0 first then possibly 161.8%
86% goes to 0%
100% goes to 0%
>100% = reversal.

Enjoy and let the pips rain down.
  • #5,288
  • Jan 11, 2010 2:20pm Jan 11, 2010 2:20pm
It was a perfect break to 138 using yesterdays candle fib. I think USDCAD had a 138 trade and a reversal as well today, the first one not in my timezone. Actually the USD CAD reversal is a good example to question how stops would be managed. I'll let you have a look at that compass. I don't want to post a chart yet, Checkz has enough to get his teeth into.

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #5,289
  • Jan 11, 2010 2:26pm Jan 11, 2010 2:26pm
Quoting Misterdaz
It was a perfect break to 138 using yesterdays candle fib. I think USDCAD had a 138 trade and a reversal as well today, the first one not in my timezone. Actually the USD CAD reversal is a good example to question how stops would be managed. I'll let you have a look at that compass. I don't want to post a chart yet, Checkz has enough to get his teeth into.

MD.
Yep, totally agree Md, 138 trade then reversal - imagine what we could be making if this sort of trade was thrown up daily.
  • #5,290
  • Jan 11, 2010 3:02pm Jan 11, 2010 3:02pm
Quoting FX Compass
Yep, totally agree Md, 138 trade then reversal - imagine what we could be making if this sort of trade was thrown up daily.
Some need management!

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #5,291
  • Jan 11, 2010 3:58pm Jan 11, 2010 3:58pm
Quoting FX Compass
Yep, totally agree Md, 138 trade then reversal - imagine what we could be making if this sort of trade was thrown up daily.
......enlighten me.
Keep smiling
  • #5,292
  • Jan 11, 2010 7:59pm Jan 11, 2010 7:59pm
Quoting FX Compass
I was waiting for this question to come up, probably the most important question asked so far. You are going to make a great trader Checkz.

Make sure you are sitting down when you test this out, it will blow your mind. Important note : retracement level means the largest retracement level in the wave you are measuring.

Retracement level to Target level : Accuracy 77% from past testing.

23.6% goes to 127%
38.2% goes to 138.2%
50/61.8% goes to 161.8%
78.6% goes to...
When you talk about retracement level are you talking about the retracement before or after the high or low break on a daily single candle because I've noticed that sometimes there is a retracement between the high and the low on a daily candle and then sometimes there is a retracement after the high or low is broken. So which one should I go with.
  • #5,293
  • Jan 11, 2010 11:44pm Jan 11, 2010 11:44pm
This is great guys!! Thank you for your explanations. I will start running across charts later this evening as about an hour ago i blacked out and hit the pavement after a long bike ride in the sun! lol. Gonna rest up for a while then back to work.
  • #5,294
  • Jan 12, 2010 2:14am Jan 12, 2010 2:14am
I waited for this trade and got the entry I wanted.
This one didn't make it .
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  • #5,295
  • Jan 12, 2010 3:03am Jan 12, 2010 3:03am
I am not sure if it's wise to trade without indicators. Even here you guys use indicators. Too many indicators make trade confusing but that's my opinion. Again, I am still new in trading and need to learn more.
  • #5,296
  • Jan 12, 2010 4:22am Jan 12, 2010 4:22am
Quoting skong
I waited for this trade and got the entry I wanted.
This one didn't make it .
hey there skong,

i think you're getting too complicated there, i would of taken the break of the swing high after the retracement up & then again on the way down..making a bit of coin both ways..just my humble opinion.


Cheers

HR
  • #5,297
  • Jan 12, 2010 4:43am Jan 12, 2010 4:43am
So if i am understanding this correctly, GU 138 was hit yesterday. So new fib plot should be drawn on yesterday's candle? Price has bounced nicely of the 23.6, so there is a 77% chance price will drop to around the 127 area? Also i just wanted to confirm 2 things, when drawing fibs, 0 fib is placed at the start of a move and the 100 is placed at the end? That makes the most sense to me (0-100). Is this correct because i have seen fibs drawn in both directions? Also, when price pierces the 127 line, but does not close beyond it, does that qualify as a 138 cycle finish since price has entered into the area between 127 and 138?
  • #5,298
  • Jan 12, 2010 4:54am Jan 12, 2010 4:54am
Quoting A-game
So if i am understanding this correctly, GU 138 was hit yesterday. So new fib plot should be drawn on yesterday's candle? Price has bounced nicely of the 23.6, so there is a 77% chance price will drop to around the 127 area? Also i just wanted to confirm 2 things, when drawing fibs,...
My chart shows on the Gbp/Usd a retracement to the 78.6% inner fib, Im also waiting to see where this Currency pair is going to go. FxCompass said it could go to 0 first then possibly 1.618. So who knows. Im just waiting to see.
  • #5,299
  • Jan 12, 2010 5:29am Jan 12, 2010 5:29am
I foudn this thread a few days ago and I am trying to learn as much as possible. I've had a small "aha" moment.

I have noticed that because the GBPUSD has not broken it's daily range today, it has followed a predictable pattern between the daily fib retracements....

Same deal for the USDJPY as well.... until it broke it's daily range not so long ago.

I'm not sure how the pattern gets changed once the daily range gets broken, but it seems to get changed once it does.
  • #5,300
  • Jan 12, 2010 5:40am Jan 12, 2010 5:40am
Then i guess i drew my fibs wrong. Im shorting the euro atm. Price bounced off 61.8, then headed down to the 0 and also bounced right off. Its been floundering around that area for a while but penetrated, so lets see if it makes it to the 161.8. Looking good for now.
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