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AUD/USD

  • #12,921
  • Jan 10, 2010 6:09pm Jan 10, 2010 6:09pm
Quoting Clouds
Im short from .9310, SL .933

[Edit - Around .9305]
Just gone short on Euro @ 1.4473. I dont think it will cross the pivot at 1.4477. SL 1.485, TP 1.4410
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #12,922
  • Jan 10, 2010 6:18pm Jan 10, 2010 6:18pm
Quoting tradoholic
Just gone short on Euro @ 1.4473. I dont think it will cross the pivot at 1.4477. SL 1.485, TP 1.4410
Good catch. My TP for AUD depends, Id like see .90 by Friday though.
  • #12,923
  • Jan 10, 2010 6:19pm Jan 10, 2010 6:19pm
Closed all my longs on aud at 9308 but haven't gone short yet. Still holding longs on the euro up to 1.4497, I will start to trade shorts on both when the dollar index reaches 77.2 ( March Contract)
  • #12,924
  • Jan 10, 2010 6:37pm Jan 10, 2010 6:37pm
Mainly I just like the low .93s for a short, but could it be testing the broken TL now?
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  • #12,925
  • Jan 10, 2010 6:46pm Jan 10, 2010 6:46pm
Exited all longs, and have entered shorts. 9313 for aud. SL above 9380. 1.4494 for euro. SL above 1.4560.
  • #12,926
  • Jan 10, 2010 6:51pm Jan 10, 2010 6:51pm
Quoting tradoholic
I think the sudden jump of Gold helped raise AUD, I closed all my positions. until we know the real cause of this jump it would be premature to make any judgement. Just my opinion though
Gold and Aud had fallen heaps in December after NFP results had a surprise improvement in the job markets in US, everyone were expecting a continuous improvement in the job market in January which might signal the Fed will increase the interest rate sooner than later.

But last week NFP showed that the December improvement was just a false signal, hence everyone has gone back to the favourites, Aud and Gold.
  • #12,927
  • Jan 10, 2010 8:36pm Jan 10, 2010 8:36pm
FXCM platform down or server out.....
  • #12,928
  • Jan 10, 2010 9:07pm Jan 10, 2010 9:07pm
Quoting Petar_Serbia
Hello guys,

This is my swing trading trade,i didnt pick on live acc (sunday)



Cheers and good pips
Hello everyone,

Move my SL on +5 and i am safe now...waiting TP...



Cheers
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"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #12,929
  • Jan 10, 2010 9:10pm Jan 10, 2010 9:10pm
usually Monday morning's Asian session moves are often the false moves. It has happened regularly over the past few months and I certainly see that as a possibility today.

The risk trade is back and everyone is talking about slow recovery in US, etc however with a good piece of retail sales from US will have these traders reversing their opinion.

I wouldn't be buying from here esp in AUD. It may go up to .94 or even .95 but IMHO the upward journey from .8738 to .9313 so far is too fast too soon.
  • #12,930
  • Jan 10, 2010 9:34pm Jan 10, 2010 9:34pm
Its best to play it safe for the first few days of this week.
Low leverage and tight stops.
At the moment i'm placing a 15pip trailing stop.

I'm going to wait for the employment figures on THU before putting in any significent trades. Quality over quantity!
  • #12,931
  • Jan 10, 2010 9:35pm Jan 10, 2010 9:35pm
I think we are right on the turning point if there is going to be one. Chart shows Dollar index weekly.

77.093 is the January midpoints that we have just touched in the last few minutes, there should be a bounce from here if the dollar is to continue up. Smaller tf's indicate possibilities of 77.06 maybe before a rise. Any rise should take it up into 79-80 over the next few weeks.
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  • #12,932
  • Jan 10, 2010 9:36pm Jan 10, 2010 9:36pm
Knee jerk reaction to the news? I got SL ed from my last short, just shorted again on AUD 9315, and 14530, douoble lots.
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #12,933
  • Jan 10, 2010 9:43pm Jan 10, 2010 9:43pm
Quoting TexasforEX
Looks like the pin bar would have been a good short. I still have no technical reason why the pair stopped at 7427.....

Yesterday's bearish price action has signaled a sell in my system. Obviously the cloud will support so 7300 is important support. shorts taken @7320 with tight stops at 7355

There are gaps to be filled still. Any retracement should fill these and would be a great chance to get some longs before the market reverses higher. NFP has set the tone for the next 2-3 days at least.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #12,934
  • Jan 10, 2010 9:53pm Jan 10, 2010 9:53pm
From my experience of futures and to some degree of forex trading.
Technicals are often very unreliable a few days after a major news release.
The market WILL change direction and move whereever it wants to moves after the release.

Trying to predict the new "long term" trends (daily/weekly) based on the trends developed from the previous major news release is like comparing apples to oranges.

I see some people are entering short term trades but yet are basing these trades on the previouly developed long term trends which may or may not have anything to do with the current new situation. - Just becareful
  • #12,935
  • Jan 10, 2010 9:53pm Jan 10, 2010 9:53pm
Following are expected trading ranges and outlooks for nine major currency pairs today:


Immediate Range Larger Range
USD/JPY 92.27-93.25 92.08-93.76
EUR/USD 1.4300-1.4446 1.4255-1.4483
AUD/USD 0.9170-0.9326 0.9121-0.9405
NZD/USD 0.7307-0.7427 0.7284-0.7498
GBP/USD 1.5955-1.6115 1.5913-1.6153
USD/CHF 1.0211-1.0347 1.0141-1.0384
USD/CAD 1.0264-1.0384 1.0204-1.0409
EUR/JPY 133.00-133.74 132.37-134.12
EUR/GBP 0.8942-0.9008 0.8911-0.9025

(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows, information on the placement of option strikes, and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
  • #12,936
  • Jan 10, 2010 9:54pm Jan 10, 2010 9:54pm
AUD/USD - to consolidate with positive bias. Pair underpinned by AUD demand for long-AUD carry trades on increased risk appetite; weak USD sentiment, firm commodity prices (CRB spot index closed up 0.24 Friday at 290.77). Data focus: 0030 GMT Australia December ANZ job ads. AUD/USD daily chart positive-biased as MACD bullish, while stochastics stay elevated at overbought, suggesting sideways or higher AUD/USD trading near-term. Resistance at 0.9326 (Dec. 3 reaction high); breach would expose upside to 0.9405 (Nov. 16 top), then psychological 0.9500. Support at 0.9170 (hourly chart); breach would expose downside to 0.9121 (Friday's low), then 0.9090 (Tuesday's low), 0.9008 (previous cap set Dec. 31) and 0.8955 (100-day moving average).
  • #12,937
  • Jan 10, 2010 9:54pm Jan 10, 2010 9:54pm
Quoting TexasforEX
NFP has set the tone for the next 2-3 days at least.
I set the Tone, M' F%#^er

  • #12,938
  • Jan 10, 2010 9:58pm Jan 10, 2010 9:58pm
Quoting Clouds
I set the Tone, M' F%#^er


Drop da hammer big man

Just go ahead and buy a couple yards of yen Clouds, you know you got da cash....
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #12,939
  • Jan 10, 2010 10:03pm Jan 10, 2010 10:03pm
Quoting TexasforEX
Drop da hammer big man

Just go ahead and buy a couple yards of yen Clouds, you know you got da cash....
I don't want to jinx my trading plan, but I'd not be surprised to see aud/usd drift lower in the next 1-2 weeks.
  • #12,940
  • Jan 10, 2010 10:04pm Jan 10, 2010 10:04pm
Quoting Clouds
Mainly I just like the low .93s for a short, but could it be testing the broken TL now?
Attachment
I know what you mean, but please confirm this trendline, mine is different, a retest would put us way up at 0.9765:
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