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  • #9,081
  • Jan 8, 2010 9:12am Jan 8, 2010 9:12am
See Post #9071

This was posted after NY 5pm close.

Now see where the candle closed at midnight.

This tells us a lot about the Asian trading activity which is normally lethargic.

Remember, forex does not really close at NY 5 pm as there is an overlap when New Zealand are already trading followed by Australia then Japan then China.

Remember also, the highest volume, liquidity and volatility usually takes place during the trading sessions of their “home” country, i.e.,

JPY in Asian sessions
EUR, GBP, CHF in Europe sessions
USD in NY sessions
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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,082
  • Jan 8, 2010 9:26am Jan 8, 2010 9:26am
Quoting forexample
I have read through your post on SR and Blackeagles two main posts (one without pics and one with) and though I'm sure my SR line drawing skills will need refining those that I draw on zoomed out charts seem close enough when I F12 through history there are relevant reactions around the lines. I guess its OK to have these on there?

As for TLs, I have been having issues with them to be honest, finding the best points to draw them, and have been using the weekly close chart for drawing lines which gives me my general direction to trade in, but I...
I have read through your post on SR and Blackeagles two main posts (one without pics and one with) and though I'm sure my SR line drawing skills will need refining those that I draw on zoomed out charts seem close enough when I F12 through history there are relevant reactions around the lines. I guess its OK to have these on there?

Yes you must have your SR levels on your chart but not too many.

As for TLs, I have been having issues with them to be honest, finding the best points to draw them, and have been using the weekly close chart for drawing lines which gives me my general direction to trade in, but I have removed these and will wait till I get the OK to start working with TLs/DSRIs.

You can still put on TLs but only those that are active and participating with PRICE. The mistake of many traders is having too many obsolete TLs on their charts that your chart ends up looking like King’s Cross Station.

Remember, the more “stuff” you put on your PRICE charts, the more conflict you are providing for your sub conscious. In simple terms, this is food for the demons, gremlins, little man in your head and the man in the mirror.

The snow just slid off the roof and buried a car, time to get the shovel out.

Be thankful it didn’t fall THROUGH the roof!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,083
  • Jan 8, 2010 9:43am Jan 8, 2010 9:43am
Quoting LarryK
I have finshed reading this thread, every single page and every single post.
Now you must all decide if I have understood what I have read.

PASR stands for Price Action (at) Support (and/or) Resistance.
Newbies (like me) are required to draw lines of SR on their charts in accordance with the very good guidelines provided in particular by Blackeagle. When we are satisfied with our lines of SR we should then go back in history on our daily charts taking note of PA at those lines of SR, asking ourselves what did the PA tell us...
Thanks for summary!
  • #9,084
  • Jan 8, 2010 10:50am Jan 8, 2010 10:50am
Quoting strat
If you don't know what this means, you know where to go!
It looks likethis weeks bar broke through a strong R line. I don't have my charts at work with me so based on the picture you posted it looks like in the last 10 weeks there have been a few tests of this R, with a tweezer top 10-11 weeks ago.

The boss is really picking up momentum making HH and LL, and if last weeks bar high can be broken we may be headed north to the next R.
  • #9,085
  • Jan 8, 2010 11:13am Jan 8, 2010 11:13am
Greetings from a very cold UK
Happy and prosperous new year Strat and all.
I was a short time frame aholic.
3 years of systems bells and whistles with nothing to show for it.
I have signed up for the Path of Learning and will make this work.
Thanks Strat and team for a great thread
Hope to post soon
BD
  • #9,086
  • Jan 8, 2010 2:10pm Jan 8, 2010 2:10pm
Quoting strat
There are some JPY laggards

What do you expect these to do?
This is what I get
AUD and NZD have recovered over 50% from their lows to where they are now

CHF,CAD GBP and EUR are all between 16 and 24 % up from their lows

while USD has only managed 8% up from its low

the winner is??

Larry
  • #9,087
  • Jan 8, 2010 3:17pm Jan 8, 2010 3:17pm
Reaction to NFP

I don’t really like doing this as it may encourage those lacking DISCIPLINE to try this next time around.

As with everything else in trading when it works it looks fantastic; when it doesn’t you look stupid and BROKE.

So at 8am NY time, those in the know sold off to the 4 week low and positioned themselves for the expected PRICE increase. PRICE duly obliged and produced short term profits then turned around and took away almost 78.6% of the gain.

Again, the 8am hammer would not be considered valid by our perfectionist friends as it was not in the perfect location and was in with other candles.

Also note the Fibonacci retrace. This was almost a full 78.6% retrace. The Fibonacci experts tell us that any retracement beyond 61.8% invalidates the current move.

So, the moral of the story for those a little further on The Path is that PRICE does not always obey “experts” rules.

PRICE will do what the out of balance force (energy) between buyers and sellers wants.

In other words, if there are more buyers buying than sellers selling, PRICE will go UP.

A very simple, idiot proof statement you might think, yet why do 95% of traders ignore this?
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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,088
  • Jan 8, 2010 4:21pm Jan 8, 2010 4:21pm
Quoting strat
Reaction to NFP...
Strat since when do you stare at 30M charts? Or are you just using this as an example?
  • #9,089
  • Jan 8, 2010 4:24pm Jan 8, 2010 4:24pm
Quoting pipfx
Strat since when do you stare at 30M charts? Or are you just using this as an example?
NEVER!

Only to illustrate rule violation.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,090
  • Jan 8, 2010 4:39pm Jan 8, 2010 4:39pm
So, here we have the hanging man on AUDJPY.

Is it a reversal candle? NO!

It is a warning that buyers may have reached exhaustion and profit taking may take place.

It is a sign for those holding longs to pull in their SL to protect profits.

It is a place where we may get a "wobble" as the Worker continues to obey it's BOSSES.
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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,091
  • Jan 8, 2010 6:01pm Jan 8, 2010 6:01pm
Quoting LarryK

the winner is??

Larry
Currencies with higher interest rates!!!!
  • #9,092
  • Jan 8, 2010 10:18pm Jan 8, 2010 10:18pm
Is USD/CHF showing the way again as Alexandra has stated?
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  • #9,093
  • Jan 8, 2010 10:26pm Jan 8, 2010 10:26pm
Quoting CrudeCraig
Is USD/CHF showing the way again as Alexandra has stated?
Nice pickup, my friend. Next week shall show us the way.
  • #9,094
  • Jan 9, 2010 12:10am Jan 9, 2010 12:10am
Quoting Alexandra
Nice pickup, my friend. Next week shall show us the way.

I notice people use the term "Next day/week/month shall show us the way."
In your case, would you enter a eurusd long the opening of monday trading?
Since usdchf broke that support that is how I think of it.

When people say "show us the way," I interpret that as wait for more confirmation but by then it could be to late.
  • #9,095
  • Jan 9, 2010 12:42am Jan 9, 2010 12:42am
Quoting dre3029
I notice people use the term "Next day/week/month shall show us the way."
In your case, would you enter a eurusd long the opening of monday trading?
Since usdchf broke that support that is how I think of it.

When people say "show us the way," I interpret that as wait for more confirmation but by then it could be to late.
Your interpretation is correct and if it is too late by then, So be it! there will be many more stress free trades to come in 2010 if this does or does not present one itself.
  • #9,096
  • Jan 9, 2010 12:51am Jan 9, 2010 12:51am
Quoting CrudeCraig
Your interpretation is correct and if it is too late by then, So be it! there will be many more stress free trades to come in 2010 if this does or does not present one itself.

thanks!
  • #9,097
  • Jan 9, 2010 2:03am Jan 9, 2010 2:03am
Quoting strat
So, here we have the hanging man on AUDJPY.

Is it a reversal candle? NO!

It is a warning that buyers may have reached exhaustion and profit taking may take place.

It is a sign for those holding longs to pull in their SL to protect profits.

It is a place where we may get a "wobble" as the Worker continues to obey it's BOSSES.
It definetely doesnt look as reversal, last 2 daily candles clearly closed above last high at 84.9, I have 90 as the next strong resistance.
Am long since Dec 18 candle and the current plan is to expect and swalow a "wobble", maybe even adding to the current long position.

Have a nice weekend everyone!
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #9,098
  • Jan 9, 2010 10:21am Jan 9, 2010 10:21am
Quoting soso
It definetely doesnt look as reversal, last 2 daily candles clearly closed above last high at 84.9, I have 90 as the next strong resistance.
Am long since Dec 18 candle and the current plan is to expect and swalow a "wobble", maybe even adding to the current long position.

Have a nice weekend everyone!
Well done SOSO! that is just the kind of trade I see after the event! A good trade is so easy to see in retrospect!

Good luck in the New Year.
  • #9,099
  • Edited 11:41am Jan 9, 2010 11:03am | Edited 11:41am
Quoting dre3029
I notice people use the term "Next day/week/month shall show us the way."
In your case, would you enter a eurusd long the opening of monday trading?
Since usdchf broke that support that is how I think of it.

When people say "show us the way," I interpret that as wait for more confirmation but by then it could be to late.

I would add that holding a position is a constant process of evaluation and re-evaluation. For example, I am currently long EURUSD, but I am not wedded to the position yet. Next week will "show us they way" in terms of whether to hold or to reconsider and/or reverse, given that it is an early stage in a possible resumption of trend or reaction to a possible new trend. One cannot simply enter and become arrogant.

If one were to be entering fresh, it could be said that accepting the USDCHF close as a leading indicator would justify entry at this stage in EURUSD. That decison depends on one's own judgment whether other factors, such as the longer term charts, volume analysis, intermarket analysis, fundamentals, etc. support the decision. Personally, I have concerns over the flaggish look of the weekly USDCHF chart, the change in relationship of AUD and EUR and implications of yen selling on the continental markets. Conversely, some would say that the EUR close makes the CHF close more suspect. When the answer is obvious, the market inevitably goes the other way.
  • #9,100
  • Jan 9, 2010 12:00pm Jan 9, 2010 12:00pm
The Indicator Phase. (courtesy of DbPhoenix)

The indicator phase is something that probably everybody probably has to go through, whether it's MAs, stochastics, MACD, %R, VWAP, Market Profile (if you're looking only at the form if it), Pivot Points, Fibonacci, Bollinger Bands, chart patterns of one sort or another, candles, or even the price bars themselves (range bars, CVBs, tick bars, VSA, etc). And if one can make that endeavor successful by going through the necessary testing and developing the necessary plan, then there's absolutely nothing wrong with settling into that phase for the rest of one's successful trading life.

Since all of this depends on its existence on the movement of price, however, it is all "price action", hence the confusion over what is meant by "price action". But trading by price means simply that one is following price flow (not order flow, but the movement of price) and the imbalances between buying pressure and selling pressure that prompt that flow. It has nothing to do with any kind of indicator or any sort of bar or even any kind of chart. Is it superior? Yes, if it makes more money than an indicator-based approach. If it doesn't, then no. Does it get one into moves earlier than an indicator-based approach (including those which focus on bars)? Yes, if one understands the buying-selling dynamics mentioned above. But getting in early is only part of what is required to make a profit. Otherwise, all counter-trend traders would be rich.

Though there are undoubtedly price action people who look down their noses at indicator people, the PA people have no reason to feel superior. And contrary to the beliefs of some indicator people, the PA people do not fail to understand indicators; they just don't see the point (other than perhaps scanning a database for price movements). In most cases, the latter have in fact gone through all this, as mentioned earlier, and had insufficient success with it, just as they've been dissatisfied with the chat room phase and the newsletter phase and the advisory service phase and the red-green arrow software phase and the seminar-course-workshop-DVD phase and the trade-the-news phase and the chart pattern phase and have instead found a more comfortable fit with a focus on price flow.

It's all about the money and how one chooses to go about getting it. There is no inherently better way, particularly if the trader doesn't care to do the work. A good fundamentalist, after all, will beat a bad technician any day. Therefore, if one is using indicators but has no idea how they're calculated, much less done the testing necessary to make the most of them, he is unlikely to reap the full -- or any -- benefit. If one is trading price flow but embraces irrational views of what constitutes support and resistance, he is similarly unlikely to reap the full benefits of that approach. Either way, it's all about study and testing and screen time. Without that, it makes absolutely no difference how one goes about the process of entering and exiting a position.
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