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Hedge trading spieler system derived from futures spread trading

  • #2,741
  • Dec 3, 2009 9:05am Dec 3, 2009 9:05am
Quoting spieler
hy guys

low volatility these days gives us some free time using the system.

But we are in a range almost everywhere
End of year maybe.
trade safe
Dear Spieler
you are my lord and this thread is my bible, but I have some questions about. it is posible to write directly to you clarify some tips?.
  • #2,742
  • Jan 8, 2010 3:25pm Jan 8, 2010 3:25pm
wondering if anyone is in the trade at the moment seeing how EURCHF dipped a bit for the past week. Even though i am aware it is near new years time and I recall reading spieler advising us not to trade during this period.
  • #2,743
  • Jan 14, 2010 3:18pm Jan 14, 2010 3:18pm
Is there still someone actively trading Spieler's hedge method here ? After my previous fault using this system I think I understand where I was wrong and I'm ready to trade again using this hedge strategy.

Spieler are you still here ?

Cheers,
Skyline
  • #2,744
  • Edited 9:10pm Jan 14, 2010 4:22pm | Edited 9:10pm
Skyline,

Only because I am subscribed to this thread was aware of your post. I don't visit this thread any longer. It has been a long time since anyone has communicated about this concept.

It is impossible to look forward and know how things would change, but clearly something has shifted in the world, which caused the EURCHF to go flat for an extended period of time. So much so that there was no volatility to cause any trades. I had tried to communicate with Spieler both in the forum and private. Never getting a response. In Recent time, price collapsed in a way that is not favorable to trade this method or I should say as I understand one would trade this method.

So that you have a better understanding, while one was to trade both EURUSD and USDCHF at the same moment, the P/L impact would be the same as trading just the EURCHF.

So for myself, I did not see this as a hedging strategy. It was about correlation various that existed between the EURUSD and USDCHF that would cause price to return to a center point when the correlation returned.

I have not looked and therefore do not know, butt maybe what has happened is the correlation that was the foundational component to this method has fundamentally changed.

I can't see anyway to make this work.

Regards,
BR



Quoting skyline
Is there still someone actively trading Spieler's hedge method here ? After my previous fault using this system I think I understand where I was wrong and I'm ready to trade again using this hedge strategy.

Spieler are you still here ?

Cheers,
Skyline
  • #2,745
  • Jan 15, 2010 4:22am Jan 15, 2010 4:22am
Quoting Big1red9
Skyline,

Only because I am subscribed to this thread was aware of your post. I don't visit this thread any longer. It has been a long time since anyone has communicated about this concept.

It is impossible to look forward and know how things would change, but clearly something has shifted in the world, which caused the EURCHF to go flat for an extended period of time. So much so that there was no volatility to cause any trades. I had tried to communicate with Spieler both in the forum and private. Never getting a response. In Recent time,...
Hi BR,
thx for your update !
Looking at past month I can see a big downtrend over EURCHF so that should coincide with a big decorrelation between EURUSD and USDCHF with a lot opportunity to open multiple trades and close for profit since there was also retraces in place. So I'm not sure this hedge strategy isn't anymore suitable , I agree that during past autumn there was little activity on EURCHF but now things seems to speed up a little bit.
Just as an example , two days ago there was a good short entry point as far as I can understand that should be still in place (in profit) , is there someone that opened that trade ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: spieler_13jan2010.jpg Size: 68 KB
  • #2,746
  • Jan 15, 2010 10:40am Jan 15, 2010 10:40am
update on EURCHF : it reached some hours ago 1.4750 so short I was talking about taken on 13 jan should be closed for a profit.
  • #2,747
  • Jan 15, 2010 10:57am Jan 15, 2010 10:57am
I don't think, buying or shorting at the levels called for by this will work. There is no discretion to the trades, everyone must followed. If you were in the recent waterfall, you got hurt.

Good luck and be careful,
BR

Quoting skyline
update on EURCHF : it reached some hours ago 1.4750 so short I was talking about taken on 13 jan should be closed for a profit.
  • #2,748
  • Edited Jan 22, 2010 2:04pm Jan 21, 2010 2:08pm | Edited Jan 22, 2010 2:04pm
Opened long position @ 1.4697 (hit -0.20%)

Edit : Closed long position @ 1.4737 (0% from opening), max DD -0.24%, gain 300$
  • #2,749
  • Feb 24, 2010 1:37am Feb 24, 2010 1:37am
can anybody share the latest indicator plz..tq
  • #2,750
  • May 4, 2010 4:50pm May 4, 2010 4:50pm
Is anyone still trading this system ?

Besides Spieler ? (who has this down to an art apparently)
  • #2,751
  • May 4, 2010 9:05pm May 4, 2010 9:05pm
If anybody is trading this system then please post their profit statement.

Regards,
winsome.
  • #2,752
  • May 5, 2010 3:54am May 5, 2010 3:54am
Quoting skyline
Hi BR,
thx for your update !
Looking at past month I can see a big downtrend over EURCHF so that should coincide with a big decorrelation between EURUSD and USDCHF with a lot opportunity to open multiple trades and close for profit since there was also retraces in place. So I'm not sure this hedge strategy isn't anymore suitable , I agree that during past autumn there was little activity on EURCHF but now things seems to speed up a little bit.
Just as an example , two days ago there was a good short entry point as far as I can understand...
I have read through most of the thread and this indicator attached to eu/chf seems the best one to detect a divergence and a trade opportunity. Also calculates how many lots you should long or short euusd and usdchf.

Can anyone share this indicator ? (couldnŽt find it yet unfortunately) I am eager to start demo trading this strategy.
  • #2,753
  • May 5, 2010 5:17am May 5, 2010 5:17am
Quoting globalinvest
I have read through most of the thread and this indicator attached to eu/chf seems the best one to detect a divergence and a trade opportunity. Also calculates how many lots you should long or short euusd and usdchf.

Can anyone share this indicator ? (couldnŽt find it yet unfortunately) I am eager to start demo trading this strategy.
Hi GlobalInvest,
no I'm not trading this sytem anymore at least in this period, because there's very very few opportunity to open pairs since eurchf is almost ranging and hardly reach +-0.20/0.25 % level. Maybe when there will be more action I'll look at this system again. I would also be interesting to hear some news from Spieler but I guess he's not trading this system anymore too at least applied to eurusd/usdchf.
Btw in attachment you'll find my latest indicator, remember to put a vertical line and name 'VL' that will act as starting point from which level will be calculated, this indicator have to be used only on eurchf chart.

Cheers,
Skyline
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 Spieler Divergence v2.ex4   8 KB | 739 downloads
  • #2,754
  • May 5, 2010 5:55am May 5, 2010 5:55am
Quoting skyline
Hi GlobalInvest,
no I'm not trading this sytem anymore at least in this period, because there's very very few opportunity to open pairs since eurchf is almost ranging and hardly reach +-0.20/0.25 % level. Maybe when there will be more action I'll look at this system again. I would also be interesting to hear some news from Spieler but I guess he's not trading this system anymore too at least applied to eurusd/usdchf.
Btw in attachment you'll find my latest indicator, remember to put a vertical line and name 'VL' that will act as starting point...
Thank you for the indicator.

Just attached it to euchf 1 hour chart. Currently a minus 3.75 divergence.
I guess that means 0.0375 % divergence from closing price of the horizontal vl line at 00:00 ?

Also attached divergence 5.1 indicator. Shows it very nice too.

You are right - last couple days there have not been very many opportunities. But IŽll wait for a new signal and demo trade.
  • #2,755
  • May 5, 2010 6:05am May 5, 2010 6:05am
Quoting globalinvest
Thank you for the indicator.

Just attached it to euchf 1 hour chart. Currently a minus 3.75 divergence.
I guess that means 0.0375 % divergence from closing price of the horizontal vl line at 00:00 ?

Also attached divergence 5.1 indicator. Shows it very nice too.

You are right - last couple days there have not been very many opportunities. But IŽll wait for a new signal and demo trade.
You're welcome

No you have to put a vertical line named 'VL' otherwise divergence is referred to an unknown point in the past. Actual divergence should be around -0.01 as you can see in below screenshot.
Maybe there was a good opportunity around past 21 apr when divergence went suddendly at around -0.40% the returned to 0 level for a nice profit but as I said one had to have a lot of patience to wait for an opportunity during these past months.

Cheers,
Skyline
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurchf.jpg Size: 63 KB
  • #2,756
  • May 5, 2010 6:19am May 5, 2010 6:19am
Thank you. That did it.
  • #2,757
  • May 5, 2010 6:20am May 5, 2010 6:20am
Screenshot.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: spieler hedge divergence indicator2.jpg Size: 218 KB
  • #2,758
  • May 5, 2010 10:04am May 5, 2010 10:04am
Quoting globalinvest
Screenshot.
yes that's right now

Cheers,
Skyline
  • #2,759
  • Jul 7, 2010 9:04am Jul 7, 2010 9:04am
Quoting spieler
I started to reply to a post http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=85097 ans was asked to start a new one because was confusing.

I have been involved in spread trading for years.
First for my private account and then as a hedge fund manager .

I was doing spread trading on futures but not the way it is usualy done.
[size=3][font=Times New Roman]I was making arbitrage between the correlated eurostoxx...

Hi I am following your hedge system with good profits.
"
And for me these is not a risk but during these days by spread trading you can make a fortune as i wil explain 1 day if somebody is interested in.[/quote]"

I am interested, and also if you have another hedge systems that work good
regards
ekober
  • #2,760
  • Jul 15, 2010 5:57am Jul 15, 2010 5:57am
Hi everyone.

Here are the results of this way of trading for the past week ... I did it bad with the last trade on EUR/USD (1.5 whereas it is 1 normally), but it was a win.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: financial.png Size: 43 KB


Be this day Pipfully ! -> Love this smile !
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