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  • #9,041
  • Jan 6, 2010 9:59pm Jan 6, 2010 9:59pm
Looking at the Euro

I am looking at price action at what I think is, well resistance now at 1.4412. So the Big Boss is still in an uptrend but there is a BEEB candle for December. The Boss trend is flattening out, indicating that the move is losing momentum, this is compounded by the BEEB candle on the monthly (Big Boss). Now on the worker I may be wrong but after going through many charts I have seen this type of price action before, where there are several candles printing under a resistance level and none of them firmly indicates downward movement. It is indicating to me that the buyers are accumulating at this level faster than the sellers can offload?

*If price manages to move up past 1.4412 I expect this to be the retrace move of the BEEB monthly bar (wobble) before sellers take control again for a move down. I will be watching price action between 1.4412 and 1.4716 IF price makes it there*
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  • #9,042
  • Jan 6, 2010 10:00pm Jan 6, 2010 10:00pm
Quoting Alexandra
Wait for what? Until the move is over so we can view it on the chart?

"Probably is not a plan" ?? This is not an endeaver of certainty, but an educated assessment and plan with a safety net in case one is wrong.....aka...a probability.
huh ?? sorry , all i meant was we wait for the daily close.

And when i checked this bad boy out and drew a fib... confluence is a beautiful thing.
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  • #9,043
  • Jan 6, 2010 10:10pm Jan 6, 2010 10:10pm
Quoting Donadoney
Looking at the Euro

I am looking at price action at what I think is, well resistance now at 1.4412. So the Big Boss is still in an uptrend but there is a BEEB candle for December. The Boss trend is flattening out, indicating that the move is losing momentum, this is compounded by the BEEB candle on the monthly (Big Boss). Now on the worker I may be wrong but after going through many charts I have seen this type of price action before, where there are several candles printing under a resistance level and none of them firmly indicates downward movement....

Well phrased. I disagree with the conclusion, but I respect the analysis. One does have to note the change in relationship between EUR and AUD versus USD. I'm not sure it has reversed, however.
  • #9,044
  • Jan 6, 2010 10:33pm Jan 6, 2010 10:33pm
Quoting Donadoney
Looking at the Euro

I am looking at price action at what I think is, well resistance now at 1.4412. So the Big Boss is still in an uptrend but there is a BEEB candle for December. The Boss trend is flattening out, indicating that the move is losing momentum, this is compounded by the BEEB candle on the monthly (Big Boss). Now on the worker I may be wrong but after going through many charts I have seen this type of price action before, where there are several candles printing under a resistance level and none of them firmly indicates downward movement....
Nice analysis, however I have to agree with Alexandra.

Dr Joe says it'll keep going up until it stops. The big boss is showing a very strong up trend, and the boss is also still trending up ward aside from the pull back.

I think a test of the Big Boss's BEEB may be possible, but it seems a little high risk for stress free trading.
  • #9,045
  • Edited 2:31am Jan 7, 2010 2:25am | Edited 2:31am
If it were not for the low volume earlier this week, surely this would have been a worthwhile short below the BEEB that broke through the S at 1.50ish, stop say 10 pips above the BEEB, with a nice target in due course down at 1.44.

Have I missed any discussion about this potential somewhere?

Larry

Damn chart did not attach again, very irritating, will try again
  • #9,046
  • Jan 7, 2010 2:28am Jan 7, 2010 2:28am
here it is I hope
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  • #9,047
  • Jan 7, 2010 3:14am Jan 7, 2010 3:14am
Quoting strat
Are you watching?
I wasn't monitoring this pair, but looking on the chart you posted, I would have taken SHORT trades under the SS #1 and #3. I would ignore SS #2 because its so close to that support, not because its not at extremes. And, SS #2 looks like the starting point for orient express compared with the other SSs.

A Short order under SS #2 is a high probability trade considering the Basic PASR?

SS #1 looks like an A+ trade. Its a SS at extremes and just under a previous resistance and 50R. Its at the end of a corrective wave, we have a fibo level there. Considering the size of the SS and the distance until the major support, this one could have been a very rewarding trade. Taking this trade I would be probably stopped above the hammer from 8 Sep. (drawn on the chart)

SS #3 is at resistance. There is enough space until support. If i would have taken the short then I would probably be stopped at BE in 3 Dec. (drawn on the chart)
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  • #9,048
  • Jan 7, 2010 7:00am Jan 7, 2010 7:00am
Quoting pipfx
Nice analysis, however I have to agree with Alexandra.

Dr Joe says it'll keep going up until it stops. The big boss is showing a very strong up trend, and the boss is also still trending up ward aside from the pull back.

I think a test of the Big Boss's BEEB may be possible, but it seems a little high risk for stress free trading.
Looking at the interrelated markets CHF, EUR, CAD, AUD may be a wise move here. It is always wise to try to make a case opposite one's conclusion. Could one say that perhaps the EUR is telling us something about the legs (or lack thereof) of the AUD ascent at this stage? I am focussed more on the vibrant JPY pairs at the moment, though a am holding I small amount long EURUSD stopped under the recent lows.
  • #9,049
  • Edited 8:14am Jan 7, 2010 7:44am | Edited 8:14am
Hi LarryK
Here's my thought's on that pair:
-look to the left where price bounced off support 1.4784 in Oct.08 and Nov.08
(3 times)
-price is in downtrend and on same support and trendline at 1.4784
I think it may bounce and return to 1.5339 or not.
Wait for PASR
Other Thought's?
Rick
Oop's, fibo is upside down, 100% is at the bottom 1.4784
Attached Image
We wants the Precious, Yes...we do - Gollum
  • #9,050
  • Jan 7, 2010 8:58am Jan 7, 2010 8:58am
Japan Finance Minister Naoto Kan calls for weaker yen

Japan's newly appointed finance minister Naoto Kan has called for a weaker yen in order to aid the recovery of the Japanese economy.
Speaking the day after his appointment, Mr Kan said it would be "nice" to see the currency weaken.


His predecessor, Hirohisa Fujii, who stepped down for health reasons, was criticised for tolerating a strong yen, which hurts Japan's exporters.


Japan is currently battling the threat of deflation and a large public debt.


Mr Kan said he would seek to work with Japan's central bank on the issue, prompting speculation that he might order official intervention.
"I will deal with it seriously and work hard to bring it to the appropriate level, considering the impact that foreign exchange has on the Japanese economy," Mr Kan told reporters.


An appropriate level would be about 95 yen to one US dollar, he said, making a rare public comment by a government minister on the currency's desired value.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,051
  • Jan 7, 2010 9:00am Jan 7, 2010 9:00am
Quoting rspence50
Testing .9451 again

Hi Strat and all
I don't know if I'm a member yet, I sent an email to Lance before xmas, have not heard from him or has he left the thread. I can't PM yet, 2nd post.
I'm still on the path #257.
Thanks for the thread Strat
Rick
PM your details to Naws when you qualify. Lance is history.

Get rid of your VOLUME - it is worthless in forex
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,052
  • Jan 7, 2010 9:22am Jan 7, 2010 9:22am
Quoting pipfx
Nice analysis, however I have to agree with Alexandra.

Dr Joe says it'll keep going up until it stops. The big boss is showing a very strong up trend, and the boss is also still trending up ward aside from the pull back.

I think a test of the Big Boss's BEEB may be possible, but it seems a little high risk for stress free trading.
EURUSD:
but it seems a little high risk for stress free trading.

Exactly. This is the right action for where we are NOW.

I just see conflict across the time frames and until they get their act together, I’ll just PATIENTLY wait.

It’s alter ego, however, doesn’t paint the same picture and seems to me to be building for a move North at some time.

The same picture is painted on $USD which of course, is represented by its alter ego.

Now add in the intentions of BOJ and everything seems to fall in place.

This is purely conjecture on my part, and nothing to hang your hat on
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,053
  • Jan 7, 2010 9:37am Jan 7, 2010 9:37am
Quoting LarryK
If it were not for the low volume earlier this week, surely this would have been a worthwhile short below the BEEB that broke through the S at 1.50ish, stop say 10 pips above the BEEB, with a nice target in due course down at 1.44.

Have I missed any discussion about this potential somewhere?

Larry

Damn chart did not attach again, very irritating, will try again
If it were not for the low volume earlier this week, surely this would have been a worthwhile short below the BEEB that broke through the S at 1.50ish, stop say 10 pips above the BEEB, with a nice target in due course down at 1.44.

Yes it would although the next support is at 1.45.

Be very careful with this pair, a small move is a lot of pips and if you are against the sentiment, is a whole lot of hurt.

A normal “wobble” on this pair is TRIPLE PIPS.

Unless you have been very successful trading the majors, I would stay away from this.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,054
  • Jan 7, 2010 9:40am Jan 7, 2010 9:40am
EURUSD:
but it seems a little high risk for stress free trading.

Exactly. This is the right action for where we are NOW.



Just to add to this, the guys at EW is suggesting the current wobble/correction is a wave 4 in a down move.
  • #9,055
  • Jan 7, 2010 9:41am Jan 7, 2010 9:41am
Quoting hcristea
I wasn't monitoring this pair, but looking on the chart you posted, I would have taken SHORT trades under the SS #1 and #3. I would ignore SS #2...
A Short order under SS #2 is a high probability trade considering the Basic PASR?

It is a HIGH RISK trade because of the proximity of support below it.

I highlighted these three ONLY as examples to my post # 8986
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,056
  • Jan 7, 2010 9:58am Jan 7, 2010 9:58am
Quoting jacanpipster
EURUSD:
but it seems a little high risk for stress free trading.

Exactly. This is the right action for where we are NOW.



Just to add to this, the guys at EW is suggesting the current wobble/correction is a wave 4 in a down move.
Just to add to this, the guys at EW is suggesting the current wobble/correction is a wave 4 in a down move.

Just shows how BAD my EW skills are, I see it as Wave 4 of an UP move and which IF EW theory holds true on this pair, there is the last corrective wave DOWN due before it goes on to complete Wave 5 UP.

However, this is all theory and we are not teaching or practicing EW on here and never will.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,057
  • Jan 7, 2010 10:06am Jan 7, 2010 10:06am
Quoting strat
If it were not for the low volume earlier this week, surely this would have been a worthwhile short below the BEEB that broke through the S at 1.50ish, stop say 10 pips above the BEEB, with a nice target in due course down at 1.44.

Yes it would although the next support is at 1.45.

Be very careful with this pair, a small move is a lot of pips and if you are against the sentiment, is a whole lot of hurt.

[font=Arial]A normal “wobble” on this pair is TRIPLE...
This pair is one of 11 that you listed as suitable for the newbies to try to trade from SR to SR, now you seem to think that we should stay away from it.

Could we (newbies) please get some clarity on which pairs we should confine ourselves to until we have built confidence and experience of PASR.

As always your responses are appreciated.

Larry
  • #9,058
  • Jan 7, 2010 10:37am Jan 7, 2010 10:37am
Quoting LarryK
This pair is one of 11 that you listed as suitable for the newbies to try to trade from SR to SR, now you seem to think that we should stay away from it.

Could we (newbies) please get some clarity on which pairs we should confine ourselves to until we have built confidence and experience of PASR.

As always your responses are appreciated.

Larry
This pair is one of 11 that you listed as suitable for the newbies to try to trade from SR to SR, now you seem to think that we should stay away from it.

Could we (newbies) please get some clarity on which pairs we should confine ourselves to until we have built confidence and experience of PASR.

As always your responses are appreciated.

This all depends whether you are trading with REAL LIVE money or a demo account.

If you are trading with REAL LIVE money and, after observing the performance of students over the last 10 months, it would be better to just trade the 6 majors until consistent profits are made:

EURUSD
GBPUSD
AUDUSD
USDJPY
USDCHF
USDCAD

All the other pairs can be traded on demo.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,059
  • Jan 7, 2010 10:59am Jan 7, 2010 10:59am
This is more talking out loud about slowing momentum and potential impending reversals applied to a real chart...

USDJPY Monthly shows the 20 below the 50 and running more or less parallel which is an indication that lower prices are still to come. This is the vanilla interpretation.

Here's what I see now:

The 20 has begun to hook and price bars are beginning to bunch together. This is the first sign to me for slowing momentum. Trains lose momentum very slowly.

Beginning in June of 2007 (swing 1), the next 2 swing lows dropped and retraced almost the same amount (ish). The most recent swing low has halted significantly short of the typical drop and presented a price reversal bar. The sellers could not push it near as far this time. Note that the price reversal bar is NOT causing the hook...the average of the past 20 bars is. In particular, February - August are causing the hook...bunching together.

The not so lower swing low is to me the 2nd sign of slowing momentum.

Using my best pair of glasses and zooming all the way in and placing DSRI as accurately as possible shows that last month closed above DSRI. This to me is the 3rd sign of slowing momentum. This month and next month could very well retest this DSRI line and it still be valid...Trains lose momentum very slowly.

As Strat mentioned in an earlier post...this pair has made it's intentions known...referring to the BUEB of last month. This BUEB combined with my 2 previous signs of slowing momentum are significant indications to me that the train may be about to pull into the station.

With the BOJ calling for 95, we might expect some overshot; maybe 100 ish and we'll see the train in the station. If price retraces to around the BOJ desire of 95 and holds then we'll see the train on the turn table. It may very well begin an extended consolidation at this point given the longevity of it's decline but we'll be able to watch the consolidation to determine whether or not the train will continue on or head on up.

-m
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  • #9,060
  • Jan 7, 2010 11:31am Jan 7, 2010 11:31am
sorta...but getting there.

I mentioned in a prior post that I play the 'is the next candle red or green game' with my 4 year old daughter.

I put it in f12 mode, no lines, and I ask her to guess what color the next candle would be.

Last week, I drew a black trend line and said "now pay attention to this black line. Any time you can draw one and make it touch 2 points, it's probably going to come back to it and you'll know what color the candle will be.

This is over simplified of course.

So last night, we were playing the game with no lines and I had forgotten to draw a trend line...I was just enjoying watching her try to guess the next candle color. She says, with no prompting, "Daddy, you forgot to draw the black line" just as the 2nd swing low was formed.

I'm not bragging on my kid here...I'm pointing out that with no predisposition of what something should be (i.e. you wipe the slate clean), anyone can learn how to do this.

I just hope I learn how before she does.

-m
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