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AUD/USD

  • #12,801
  • Jan 7, 2010 7:30am Jan 7, 2010 7:30am
Wind is slowly building up, this tree is gonna swing so badly soon...
Up or down? Heads or Tails?
  • #12,802
  • Jan 7, 2010 7:31am Jan 7, 2010 7:31am
Quoting goldengold
wind is slowly building up, this tree is gonna swing so badly soon...
Up or down? Heads or tails?
up down then sideways
  • #12,803
  • Jan 7, 2010 7:48am Jan 7, 2010 7:48am
Quoting Daytrader74
I don't trade the news , I trade on technicals
hi daytrader, every time i trade news i find its so weird, like this morning AUD suppose to go up but it go back down, and the US news just release is better then predict it should support USD but it go down, is news really not that important? i thought news is important then technicals
  • #12,804
  • Jan 7, 2010 7:56am Jan 7, 2010 7:56am
Quoting hellboy
hi daytrader, every time i trade news i find its so weird, like this morning AUD suppose to go up but it go back down, and the US news just release is better then predict it should support USD but it go down, is news really not that important? i thought news is important then technicals
I find trading new very dangerous , I stick to my charts and trading what I see
  • #12,805
  • Jan 7, 2010 7:58am Jan 7, 2010 7:58am
Closed my short.

+75 pips.

Shorted after the initial spike from AUS retail sales data this morning.

No new positions until reaction from NFP tomorrow.
  • #12,806
  • Jan 7, 2010 8:05am Jan 7, 2010 8:05am
Quoting hellboy
hi daytrader, every time i trade news i find its so weird, like this morning AUD suppose to go up but it go back down, and the US news just release is better then predict it should support USD but it go down, is news really not that important? i thought news is important then technicals
dont say that first let see for the next few hours. the effect is definitely more than 1 hour after the news release. but remember many many other factor that drive the market than just a news release. so good news not allways good for the related currencies.
  • #12,807
  • Jan 7, 2010 8:06am Jan 7, 2010 8:06am
Quoting Daytrader74
I find trading new very dangerous , I stick to my charts and trading what I see
could you tell me how did u learn those technicals? and what technicals u normally looking at? im really bad at it and need some advise. thanks alot!
  • #12,808
  • Jan 7, 2010 8:13am Jan 7, 2010 8:13am
Quoting yeri
dont say that first let see for the next few hours. the effect is definitely more than 1 hour after the news release. but remember many many other factor that drive the market than just a news release. so good news not allways good for the related currencies.
thanks yeri, what i thought was the news is better then prediction and it relate greatly to the NFP news tmr, so if the NFP new is better then prediction USD will defintly go stronger. that was what i thought, didnt expect the usd go weaker aft the news. lol im still learning, practise make perfect
  • #12,809
  • Jan 7, 2010 8:16am Jan 7, 2010 8:16am
Quoting hellboy
could you tell me how did u learn those technicals? and what technicals u normally looking at? im really bad at it and need some advise. thanks alot!
I mainly trade using 1H , 4H and Daily charts I also use Ichimoku
  • #12,810
  • Jan 7, 2010 8:30am Jan 7, 2010 8:30am
moved 1/2 of shorts to breakeven, dollar index futures at top of channel, just to limit risk in case dollar retrace
  • #12,811
  • Jan 7, 2010 1:56pm Jan 7, 2010 1:56pm
Quoting hellboy
hi daytrader, every time i trade news i find its so weird, like this morning AUD suppose to go up but it go back down, and the US news just release is better then predict it should support USD but it go down, is news really not that important? i thought news is important then technicals
USD is in risk aversion state... good news = USD down and bad news = USD up... it is only USD doing this. AUD did go up look at yesterdays better than expected news, i had a m15 bar that spiked 60-70 pips on GBP/AUD

Jag
  • #12,812
  • Jan 7, 2010 3:00pm Jan 7, 2010 3:00pm
up or down
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  • #12,813
  • Jan 7, 2010 3:09pm Jan 7, 2010 3:09pm
aud/jpy
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  • #12,814
  • Jan 7, 2010 4:11pm Jan 7, 2010 4:11pm
order filled sell 85.95 aud/jpy . Top of channel.
Hope it works.
  • #12,815
  • Jan 7, 2010 4:56pm Jan 7, 2010 4:56pm
Quoting sidhujag
USD is in risk aversion state... good news = USD down and bad news = USD up... it is only USD doing this. AUD did go up look at yesterdays better than expected news, i had a m15 bar that spiked 60-70 pips on GBP/AUD

Jag
hi sidhujag, thanks for reply. well normally yes, good news = USD down and bad news = USD up, but at this stage, i dont think so, have a look the news released last month, there were a lot good news cause usd go stronger cos it increase the prediction of US RBA increasing the intreste rate. im pretty sure that if the NFP new is better then prediction USD will defintly go stronger and all the other crrencies will go down. let me know if im wrong=]
  • #12,816
  • Jan 7, 2010 4:59pm Jan 7, 2010 4:59pm
I'm still short Aussie,
Long USDJPY, this one hit my target, I'm gonna close it and reverse to short
I got filled of my Long AUDJPY due to break out in the top, however, I see it might be short lived as the divergence on 4h charts indicate a pull back, but you never know, I sometimes dont believe these indicators anymore
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  • #12,817
  • Jan 7, 2010 5:07pm Jan 7, 2010 5:07pm
Quoting shahab8b
I'm still short Aussie,
Long USDJPY, this one hit my target, I'm gonna close it and reverse to short
I got filled of my Long AUDJPY due to break out in the top, however, I see it might be short lived as the divergence on 4h charts indicate a pull back, but you never know, I sometimes dont believe these indicators anymore
Hi. This is what I see for USDJPY - Most JPY pairs seem to follow UJ lately. Also the AUDJPY is at top of new 4HR channel, but if you want look at longer-term, it could go further toward 90, but Im short.
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  • #12,818
  • Jan 7, 2010 5:11pm Jan 7, 2010 5:11pm
Long @ 0.9165

SL @ 0.9149

TP @ 0.9190
  • #12,819
  • Jan 7, 2010 5:13pm Jan 7, 2010 5:13pm
Quoting shahab8b
I'm still short Aussie,
Long USDJPY, this one hit my target, I'm gonna close it and reverse to short
I got filled of my Long AUDJPY due to break out in the top, however, I see it might be short lived as the divergence on 4h charts indicate a pull back, but you never know, I sometimes dont believe these indicators anymore

Short on U/J as well from 93.52.....first target 93/05
  • #12,820
  • Jan 7, 2010 5:22pm Jan 7, 2010 5:22pm
I have been observing the AUD/JPY also. I have notes posted on the AUD/JPY thread. It seems like the AUD/USD may follow along the same lines as the AUD/USD. Same bearish divergence is apparent on BOTH pairs.


What do you guys think on this pair going into Fridays London/New York sessions? I am thinking if we have a NFP worse than forecast we might have people pulling out of carry trades en masses and send the AUD/USD as well as the AUD/JPY shooting down the pike.


Any predictions on the NFP report, better or worse than forecast?


I will be ready either way we go once the initial volatility settles down..

It will be interesting to see how well the Fibonacci fan levels hold.

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