AUD/USD

Man, I wish the Pair does make a nice drop; it has been good to me this past year ( excluding the last month or so. )

Do a channel on a monthly, you can see a bottom at approx .68, a top above parity.

Here also possible shorter term channel. Alright, Going to see Avatar.

I do see what you mean. Going back all way to 1994. Hard to predict.

AudJpy does look ready to short to me, it has completed the pattern that i am looking for audusd to do. What it does for the rest of the week should give a good indication on whether the audusd will be any good for shorts when the time comes.

AUD going up gold went up november.. demand for commodities rose.

AUD/USD intraday: consolidation.


Pivot: 0.9235

Preference: Short positions below 0.9235 with targets @ 0.9105 & 0.907 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 0.9235 look for further upside with 0.9275 & 0.933 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is posting a bearish divergence (not confirmed yet).

Key levels
0.933
0.9275
0.9235
0.9201 last
0.9105
0.907
0.901

Damn Retail Sales.

At least I am only in lightly.

This pair has been killing me here lately.

Positive data for AUD just released. Are we heading towards 93c in the short term or are we retracing from here?

Thoughts?

Let me look in my crystal ball.........I see 0.93

Seems to me it has started retracing though...

93 sometime in the next 24 hours is my guess, but there can easily be a retrace before that (85 pip top).
But unless it retraces around 150 pips on friday we will just be up again next week, so i won't be jumping into shorts to quickly.

Needless to say I need a retracement. Added to my Short position ( I know, not a smart move for the most part, but I am still in lightly. )

Please AUD/USD, find a good solid resistance so I can increase my position to my usual exposure.

So now it's blown through the weekly R3 pivot.
Well I need to learn to become a trend follower instead of a contrarian.
500 pips since Xmas.
Now I can see it taking out the 9405 high.
I think the December USD rally was just a hoax. A profit taking excercise and nothing more.
Oh well, live and learn is the nature of the game.

SYDNEY, Jan 7 (Reuters) - Australian retail sales surged past

all expectations in November to record the biggest increase in

eight months, adding to the chances of another rise in interest

rates as early as February.

Other data released on Thursday showed Australia's trade

deficit narrowed much as expected in November as imports fell

faster than exports.



***************************************************************

KEY POINTS:

* Nov retail sales +1.4 pct mth/mth, seasonally adjusted

(Reuters poll median +0.3 percent)

* Oct retail sales revised to +0.4 pct

* Nov balance of trade A$-1,700 mln, s/adj (poll A$-1,800

mln)

* Nov exports -2 pct mth/mth, imports -3 pct

* For data click on [ID:nSYU009225] [ID:nSYU009226]



COMMENTARY:

HELEN KEVANS, ECONOMIST, JPMORGAN

"It looks like despite that (retail) discounting, volumes

remained very strong and that underpinned the good results on the

retail number. It reaffirms our views that the RBA will hike

again in February by 25bps and there will be a string of rate

hikes throughout 2010.

"Rates at the moment are just too low for an economy that has

proven very resilient and has come out of a global recession

rather unscathed. We expect rates at 4.5 percent mid-year and 5

percent by year-end."



MICHAEL BLYTHE, ECONOMIST, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA

"It certainly shows the improvement in consumer sentiment has

more than offset the first couple of rate rises. The only

downside is that the Christmas trading session did not sound

quite as good.

"This shows the Australian economy is certainly on a recovery

path. It will certainly revive speculation that the RBA will come

back and give us a rate rise in February.

"We have a 25-basis-point rate rise written in for February,

with a forecast for rates at 5 percent by the end of 2010."



BRIAN REDICAN, SENIOR ECONOMIST, MACQUARIE

"It is quite extraordinary how strong sales were in November.

And it was across all states and all sectors. Along with strong

car sales, it sets up the quarter for a very good pick up in

private consumption. That should allay concerns that spending

would wane now the stimulus cheques had stopped coming and rates

were rising. As such, it's another tick in the box for a rate

rise in February."



ADAM CARR, CHIEF ECONOMIST, ICAP

"There has been a debate about the strength of consumers

(and) today's number ends once and for all that debate. Consumers

are strong and will continue to be strong.

"Unless we see a significant moderation in the quarterly

growth rate, the RBA will be tightening again in February by

25bps. I see interest rates at 4.5 percent mid-year, and 5-5.25

percent by end of the year."



MARKET REACTION:

- The Australian dollar <AUD=> jumped half a U.S. cent on the

strong sales report and made sharp gains on the euro and yen.

Interbank futures <0#YIB:> slipped as investors priced in a

greater chance the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) would lift

rates again at its February policy meeting.

we are getting close to have a sell signal ,I'll post it when I get it

if u had shorted at the top juz now... u shldz have gotten some 25 pips now... now waiting for 5m chart to give more clues..

AUD should go up for about 6 or so hours

If I had know that would be the top ( I doubt it ) I would have done so.

How do you determine that?