AUD/USD

what is your tp?

Lol... now add another push to the next red line on that chart at around 9220... with 9250 possible but who knows... and then, a due retest down to 9000?

IMO,there are two ways to decide what to do with a winning trade (unless you have a fibonacci extention already placed or use some harmonic patterns to trade which give you the target)
1- use two positions, close the first one with some descent profit (lets say about the distance between pivot and Daily S/R,if you are not trading long term) then move the SL to B/E point to have a strees free ride, the disadvanantage is some times to have SL hit before another good move, well at least you tried!!
2-use some indicator to getout of your trade, RSI extreme and parabolic SAR are good but my favorite one for exiting is Hieken Ashi indicator, which is very accurate.

I'm still waiting for a sign of topping for shorting this pair nothing is here for now to convince me at this time

Nice to see you around
9250 No problem to me Just hope things not go out of control and goes as my chart Tell to me

I went long on Gold couple of hrs ago on the Buy signal and broken R that I got , so far so good, I think rising Gold price will put more pressure on USD for now

Cut my short for -50. The technical case for a reversal has been mostly invalidated. Flat now again and reevaluating.

What I've been afraid of since last week is happening, to my experince USDCAD starts the movement always before the other commodity currency (may be 1-2 days in advance) now the major S is broken the major low is vulnerable to be taken out, it gives me an indication we might see the .9405 in Aussie to be taken out in the next few days

its 78.6% retracement at 1.0300--1.0350 support zone still holding,usd/cad price action during these days looks more like a correction, i think downside for it its limited.i still bullish on usd/cad,oil is facing its $85 resistant to finish its big 5 wave impulse wave, a big downside correction for oil is due

Thank you for your reply.

I have been considering exactly that. It can have it's drawbacks but I do think that strategy will help me hold on to my winners longer.

Thanks.

The minutes for the FOMC December policy meeting indicate that improvement in US economic
data did not warrant a change in policy. The FOMC made no change in its target for fed funds or
asset purchase plan. According to the FOMC minutes, incoming data shows that Q4 growth was
strengthening along with employment growth. The FOMC minutes state that board members
sparred over the inflation outlook and asset purchases. Some members see inflation risks to the
downside and others to the upside. A few of the policy board members are concerned that excess
reserves could quickly end up in the economy. Some of the board members argued for expanding
asset purchases and one member called for the end of asset purchases now. The minutes
indicate that the there was concern that the economic recovery will not continue without
government support and that the end of the MBS purchase plan could hurt the housing market.
Several members are not convinced of the labor market recovery and are concerned that tight
credit will reduce small business investment and hiring. Output and employment growth pickup
will be slow relative to past recoveries. The FOMC raised its GDP growth forecast but stated that
2010/ 2011 growth will exceed potential by only a small amount.
The December FOMC minutes shed little light on how long the Fed will keep rates near zero.
Disagreements over inflation outlook, concerns about growth when government support plans
lapse, reference to the impact of type credit conditions and uncertainty about the labor market
recovery point to continued steady Fed policy outlook. USD traded lower after the release of the
December FOMC policy minutes as Fed policy will remain on hold for the foreseeable future.
Pimco’s Gross said he expects the Fed to keep interest rates near zero for all of 2010.

US nfp may have turned positive in December
The US labor market improved significantly in November and the trend is expected to have
continued during December. In November US nonfarm payrolls declined by just 11k. This was
well below market expectation that nonfarm payrolls had been cut by 125k. The headline
unemployment rate also improved to 10%. The trade had expected the November unemployment
rate to be unchanged at 10.2%. Temporary holiday retail and healthcare jobs offset the loss of
jobs in construction and manufacturing in November. On Friday January 8th at 8:30 AM ET US
December unemployment and nonfarm payrolls will be released. There is a great deal of
speculation that the nonfarm payrolls will turn positive in the December report for the first time in
23 months. Estimates for December nonfarm payroll range from -80k to plus 50k. Consensus for
December nonfarm payrolls -8k with the unemployment rate expected at 10.1%.
The ADP December employment report showed a bigger drop in employment during December
of -84k. The ADP December employment was expected to decline by 73k. Although the ADP
report was disappointing it may offer limited forecasting help as the November ADP report missed
the December BLS survey by 151k. The Challenger Gray and Christmas employment survey for
December shows the job cuts fell by 73% from a year ago and are down 10% since November.
The Challenger Gray and Christmas survey also said that planned jobs cut are at a nine year low.
The ADP and Challenger surveys show that jobs are being created in the service sector. In the
November unemployment report the average workweek was reported to have increased to 33.2
hours from 33 and the number of temporary workers hired increased. The increased hours of the
workweek and the hiring of temporary workers are signs that the US labor market is stabilizing. In
addition, weekly initial jobless claims have fallen to their lowest levels in two years which
suggests that the labor market continues to improve. Jobless claims for the week ending 01/02
will be released Thursday and are expected at 447k compared to 432k last month. Seasonal
adjustments are expected to temporarily boost last week’s jobless claims.
The recovery in the US labor market is expected to be gradual. Headline unemployment may
continue to uptick as unemployed workers are encouraged to try again to find a job because the
labor data shows improvement. The size of the labor pool is shrinking and more jobseekers
would put upward pressure on the headline unemployment rate. Since the start of 2008 7.2mln
jobs have been lost in the US and 15.4mln Americans are unemployed. 9.2mln Americans have
only been able to find part-time work and many workers have had their hours cut. Part time
workers will be competing with the unemployed for any new jobs created. This means more rapid
and significant jobs creation will be needed to bring the headline unemployment rate down. Longterm
unemployment remains at a record high with 5.9mln people out of work for more than six
months.
Because there is significant optimism building that Friday's nonfarm payrolls release will turn
positive, the impact of the report may be somewhat dampened. A positive reading on the nonfarm
payrolls will likely increase speculation of an earlier Fed rate hike and support the USD.
Moreover, the modest improvement in US nonfarm payrolls may overshadow the continued
significant weakness noted above in the US labor market. Economist Krugman warns that Fed
and government officials may rely on improvement in US labor market to justify an earlier
withdrawal of stimulus and tightening of monetary policy. According to Krugman this would be a
mistake as the improvement in the labor market may be unsustainable and the Fed and
government officials may be repeating the mistakes of 1937 when stimulus was removed too
soon.

Aud/Jpy, Beautiful

AUD traded higher supported by positive Australian economic data and gains in cross trade to the JPY.
Australia's November building approvals rose by 5.9% and December vehicle sales rose by 3.2%. These reports
suggest that the Australian domestic economy has weathered recent RBA rate hikes. There was limited reaction
to report that December PSI dipped to 50 from 52.5 in November. AUD /JPY traded over 1% higher with JPY
pressured by report that Japan's finance minister resigned. The resignation generates concern about Japan's
fiscal outlook. AUD has benefited from Monday's release of strong Chinese economic data. On Monday, China
reported a sharp increase in manufacturing PMI and producers in China have raised prices at the fastest pace in
17 months. The growth outlook in Asia is key to the demand for commodities and exports from Australia. AUD
had been experiencing significant selling pressure sparked by diminished RBA rate hike speculation and concern
6 | Daily forex Report
that recent RBA rate hikes have contributed to weaker than expected domestic growth in Australia. At the start of
December investors were looking for the RBA to hike rates by 50 bps in February. The trade now looks for the
RBA to pause in its tightening cycle because the sustainability of the economic recovery in Australia is less
certain. Today's strong domestic data from Australia clouds the outlook for RBA policy and makes a pause in
February less certain. Financial futures are pricing the odds of a February RBA rate hike at 50/50.
Is On January 7th November retail sales and November trade balance will be released. Retail sales are expected
to rise by 0.6% compared to 0.3% last month. The trade balance is expected at -2.5bln compared to -2.3bln last
month.
The technical outlook for the AUD is positive as the AUD trades above 9000. Expect AUD support at 9092 the
January 5th low with resistance at 9295 the December 4th high.

There's double bottom on GBP/AUD, and double top on AUD/JPY. AUD/USD long-term bullish trend-line did break in december. I view this as a correction to .92, and a good position to sell. Technically it would be impossible to be bullish for AUD, but that's just me.

I am bullish on the aud up to 93 but it wouldn't suprise me if there was a pullback into the 9100 area before going up.
The chart on the left is 140 pip range bars, it shows the possibility of a pullback before heading up to the green highs.
The chart on the right is 4 hr bars, price has caught up with the green highs as mentioned i was looking for yesterday, that next bar will close in 2.5 hours and unless it closes above the green highs at 9202 then i will look for a pullback towards the green midpoint, currently at 9113.

AUD/USD: Opens Asian Session Close to 0.9200 After Solid Gains Sydney, January 07: The AUD gained against all of the major currencies on Wednesday, as the commodity rally since the start of 2010 shows no sign of letting up. Crude rose for the 10th straight session while copper rose over 2% to fresh 16 month highs. The JPY-funded carry trade received a fresh boost from the resignation of Japan Fin Min Fujii and the appointment of Kan - as it is perceived that there will be less of a tolerance for a strong JPY from the new Fin Min. The rise and rise in commodity prices is also encouraging demand for the JPY-funded carry trade - which is giving the AUD/JPY and AUD/USD strong support.
The AUD/USD managed to break above solid resistance ahead of 0.9200 and traded up to 0.9218 in the immediate wake of the Fed Minutes, which were considered to be on the "dovish" side. The sluggish close on Wall Street sent the AUD/USD below the 0.9200 level ahead of the Asian open. The move higher has resulted in the AUD/USD closing above the top of the daily ichimoku cloud (0.9146) for the first time since December 14 and the next level of resistance is found at the December 4 high at 0.9295.
Aus Retail Sales and Trade data is out at 00:30 GMT with the median expectation for Retail Sales at plus 0.3%.

when the down trend picks up steam, it may take only 3 months to reach .56 - Be ready

I love that chart! I gotta ask, how do you come to the .56 price?

Last time it crashed hard it went to .63. Everyone said back then it would hit .50.

.56 is not really a technical number, just an approx. of bottom of channel drawn