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Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

  • #9,021
  • Jan 6, 2010 1:53pm Jan 6, 2010 1:53pm
Quoting strat
Did the swing failure marked tell you anything?
That at the very end of consolidation there were not enough buyers interested to take it back to the top of the range. After all...at the end of consolidation, either the buyers or the sellers has to win out.

At that point there were enough sellers interested in divesting themselves of that instrument that they were willing to accept lower prices and at the same time there weren't enough buyers interested in taking it from them. A failure to go higher at that level is an indication of exhaustion and tells us that at that point support might not hold this time.
-m
  • #9,022
  • Jan 6, 2010 1:55pm Jan 6, 2010 1:55pm
GBPCAD is slightly more difficult to trade due to higher volatility and its erratic nature carried over from GBP. This pair is not for the feint of heart as it will DEFINITELY test the 95% that does the financial damage

The blue circles are what I call my “wobbles”. I expect them within each move I trade. They represent a specific chart pattern which will be discussed at Advanced Level.

I have a very good idea where these will happen which allows me to keep the demons, gremlins, little man in my head and the man in the mirror at bay. In other words, I know where to trail my SL and add new positions.

Sometimes, when the pair trades against the technicals, my SL gets taken out but its no big deal, there is another set up being made somewhere.

There are also two really good examples of what was discussed in Post #8934

There is also a perfect example of a RE-TEST of resistance and had it not been for the time of the year (Holiday Season), I would have been all over this like a cheap suit filling as many pairs of wellies as I could find. A nice, probably as safe as you can get, triple pip move so far.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,023
  • Jan 6, 2010 2:13pm Jan 6, 2010 2:13pm
Quoting mstandifer
Early on in my participation on the thread, both you and Blackeagle on separate posts told me to 'step back and look at the big picture'....
EXCELLENT, Marcus, EXCELLENT!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,024
  • Jan 6, 2010 2:19pm Jan 6, 2010 2:19pm
Quoting mstandifer
That at the very end of consolidation there were not enough buyers interested to take it back to the top of the range....
EXACTLY but......................like everything else in trading, it is not set in stone. Always look for CONFIRMATION before acting on such beliefs or run a tight stop.

As with all probabilities, the next time you see this, it "probably" will not work!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,025
  • Jan 6, 2010 2:31pm Jan 6, 2010 2:31pm
Quoting mstandifer
Early on in my participation on the thread, both you and Blackeagle on separate posts told me to 'step back and look at the big picture'....
Great post!
  • #9,026
  • Jan 6, 2010 2:38pm Jan 6, 2010 2:38pm
Quoting strat
Did the swing failure marked tell you anything?
The swing failure marked a LH. There was a higher high before which could have developed to a new uptrend if a HL and HH had been formed after that. Now a resumption of the former downtrend seems more likely because of the LH formed by the marked failure. Also on my chart there is a BEEB near the resistance.

FP
Posting Demo charts, mirroring some of them live.
  • #9,027
  • Jan 6, 2010 2:39pm Jan 6, 2010 2:39pm
See the BEEB near resistance.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud 060110 daily failure swing high.gif Size: 13 KB
Posting Demo charts, mirroring some of them live.
  • #9,028
  • Jan 6, 2010 2:42pm Jan 6, 2010 2:42pm
Speaking of tests:
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,029
  • Jan 6, 2010 3:01pm Jan 6, 2010 3:01pm
Are you watching?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,030
  • Jan 6, 2010 3:15pm Jan 6, 2010 3:15pm
Quoting strat
Are you watching?
The three marked "shooting star like" bars were formed after a BUEB. Their wicks to the upside reached the resistance level. This tells us after buyers stepped in firmly they were rejected next day by the sellers at resistance level. A resume of the downtrend was the most likely thing to happen.

FP
Posting Demo charts, mirroring some of them live.
  • #9,031
  • Jan 6, 2010 3:19pm Jan 6, 2010 3:19pm
Testing .9451 again

Hi Strat and all
I don't know if I'm a member yet, I sent an email to Lance before xmas, have not heard from him or has he left the thread. I can't PM yet, 2nd post.
I'm still on the path #257.
Thanks for the thread Strat
Rick
Attached Image
We wants the Precious, Yes...we do - Gollum
  • #9,032
  • Jan 6, 2010 3:25pm Jan 6, 2010 3:25pm
Hi to all . Just subscribing to the thread. I hope to contribute as well.

To strat:

"I am a degreed mechanical engineer by profession .."
I iz a EE me-self

"Far from having super-dooper highly fandangled systems, I learned all they had was their EYES and EARS .."
Yep! I trade like Jesse Livemore me-self. No need for anything but price, the right psychological time , and the state of the masses.

"I was a lead guitarist in a group back in England .."
I still play guitar.. except my style is more in line with the Eric Johnson and Van Halen. I've been to England and had a GREAT time. Hope to return soon.

Jess
Our AWESOME IMAGINATION is the true holy grail!
  • #9,033
  • Jan 6, 2010 3:29pm Jan 6, 2010 3:29pm
Quoting forexpiet
The three marked "shooting star like" bars were formed after a BUEB. Their wicks to the upside reached the resistance level. This tells us after buyers stepped in firmly they were rejected next day by the sellers at resistance level. A resume of the downtrend was the most likely thing to happen.

FP
See my post # 8986
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,034
  • Edited 3:50pm Jan 6, 2010 3:44pm | Edited 3:50pm
Quoting strat
Speaking of tests:
AUDUSD x USDJPY = AUDJPY

AUDUSD just broke trend to the upside. Basic trend trading tells us the move is up for AUDUSD.

AUDJPY is at resistance. Unless USDJPY tanks horribly, AUDJPY will probably break resistance from the AUDUSD move. If it does and USDJPY holds tight or moves up itself, AUDJPY is a strong buy.
-m
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #9,035
  • Jan 6, 2010 4:09pm Jan 6, 2010 4:09pm
Yesterday's Futures volume was significantly up from the previous day so it looks like things are returning to normal (if there is a normal in trading that is).
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,036
  • Jan 6, 2010 4:11pm Jan 6, 2010 4:11pm
Quoting strat
Yesterday's Futures volume was significantly up from the previous day so it looks like things are returning to normal (if there is a normal in trading that is).
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #9,037
  • Jan 6, 2010 6:06pm Jan 6, 2010 6:06pm
[quote=strat;3344067]Welcome! Where in Oz?

Thanks Strat

Western Australia.....I live on the coast about a 40 minute drive south of Perth.
  • #9,038
  • Jan 6, 2010 6:41pm Jan 6, 2010 6:41pm
Quoting strat
Yesterday's Futures volume was significantly up from the previous day so it looks like things are returning to normal (if there is a normal in trading that is).
Not to be overlooked, given the implications on supply and demand in relation to the direction of the market. At this time of year, especially, the volume changes often amplify the statements about sentiment and direction.
  • #9,039
  • Jan 6, 2010 8:36pm Jan 6, 2010 8:36pm
Quoting mstandifer
AUDJPY is at resistance. Unless USDJPY tanks horribly, AUDJPY will probably break resistance from the AUDUSD move. If it does and USDJPY holds tight or moves up itself, AUDJPY is a strong buy.
-m
'Probably' is not a plan .... we wait for this one with

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  • #9,040
  • Jan 6, 2010 9:44pm Jan 6, 2010 9:44pm
Quoting pipmyride
'Probably' is not a plan .... we wait for this one with

Wait for what? Until the move is over so we can view it on the chart?

"Probably is not a plan" ?? This is not an endeaver of certainty, but an educated assessment and plan with a safety net in case one is wrong.....aka...a probability.
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