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  • #12,641
  • Jan 5, 2010 11:01pm Jan 5, 2010 11:01pm
Quoting amyc
I don't use any of those things to trade. I trade what i see it says more up before down, guess we will have to wait and see.

Whether we go up or down from here is not the point. You went from cautiously BUILDING A SHORT POSITION targeting 86 to having ZERO REASONS TO ENTER A SHORT in 24 hours of ranging price action. I'm not sure what kind of parameters your system has but that sure is a big change of sentiment with not alot of change in the market.

I hope you take this as constructive skepticism rather than a personal attack.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #12,642
  • Jan 5, 2010 11:10pm Jan 5, 2010 11:10pm
Yes conditions changed by the end of Mondays session for me. As long as its above the green highs at 9049 then shorts have almost no probability of working this week for the longterm.
I now see the aud moving up to finish the week on or near its highs which will then push up next weeks green highs more towards 9303 which means it will continue up next week until it hits those highs and that will provide me with a high probability shorting zone. I still see price hitting at least 8716 late in January. This is exactly the same move that played out in the aud in July 09 but in reverse.

not taking it personally at all, but i see nothing wrong with changing my mind as conditions change..flexibility is a necessary condition for a trader
  • #12,643
  • Jan 5, 2010 11:13pm Jan 5, 2010 11:13pm
forgot to attach chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud.GIF Size: 30 KB
  • #12,644
  • Jan 5, 2010 11:18pm Jan 5, 2010 11:18pm
Quoting amyc
not taking it personally at all, but i see nothing wrong with changing my mind as conditions change..flexibility is a necessary condition for a trader

Always good to hear lots of opinions. Best of luck with your trades.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #12,645
  • Edited 11:36pm Jan 5, 2010 11:25pm | Edited 11:36pm
Quoting amyc
I don't use any of those things to trade. I trade what i see it says more up before down, guess we will have to wait and see.
hi, im new to forex exchange, i wonder how could u so sure that it'll move up first then down? i find it really difficult to trade, i alway predict wrongly and and lose a great deal of money, i dont know where to start to learn and how i learn any more. im afraid everytime i make order. i need some help but not sure who can, is every one start trading like i trade? always lose money first? if so how long roughly it take u until u start to gain money stady?
if any one else could help i would be greatly appreciate!
Thank you!
(sorry if i spell anything incrrectely, im still learning english at the moment lol)
  • #12,646
  • Jan 5, 2010 11:29pm Jan 5, 2010 11:29pm
Quoting TexasforEX
Oh come on. There are obvious reasons to be bearish. LTL resistance, RSI bearish divergence, daily doji. I mean I'm not even getting into the details here. Geez.
I like to short this pair more than anyone else but it's not bearish right now, look at this charts H/4H/Daily/Weekly , all bullish, let's see a break of S at .9090 then go short
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: aud2.gif Size: 16 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: aud3.gif Size: 13 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: aud4.gif Size: 15 KB
  • #12,647
  • Jan 5, 2010 11:39pm Jan 5, 2010 11:39pm
Quoting shahab8b
I like to short this pair more than anyone else but it's not bearish right now, look at this charts H/4H/Daily/Weekly , all bullish, let's see a break of S at .9090 then go short

So you are stating that the weekly is bullish but a break below yesterday's low would change that fact? I just do not interpret things that way.

Reversals are my bread and butter in forex. I have my own formula for spotting them and I have made some very good money doing it. I am seeing one materializing here. I said yesterday we would see some "wood being chopped" and we have seen exactly that. I also said a new leg would probably start today. We'll see if I'm right.

Analysis is very personalized; always has been, always will.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #12,648
  • Jan 5, 2010 11:57pm Jan 5, 2010 11:57pm
Quoting TexasforEX
So you are stating that the weekly is bullish but a break below yesterday's low would change that fact? I just do not interpret things that way.

.
????? did I say that?!!! I said that I see no sign of reversal now ;however, a pull back or reversal is close as 4H is overbought. the break below .9090 doesnt make weekly bearish but gives me an intraday breaish count
  • #12,649
  • Edited 12:33am Jan 6, 2010 12:08am | Edited 12:33am
Quoting TexasforEX
So you are stating that the weekly is bullish but a break below yesterday's low would change that fact? I just do not interpret things that way.

Reversals are my bread and butter in forex. I have my own formula for spotting them and I have made some very good money doing it. I am seeing one materializing here. I said yesterday we would see some "wood being chopped" and we have seen exactly that. I also said a new leg would probably start today. We'll see if I'm right.

Analysis is very personalized; always has been, always will.
Actually I can see both points of view correct. Looks toppy to me. If the daily high of 9173 holds should get a nice entry short from 9160, but could miss, or wait till a close below 9119 with stop above most important high at that point, depends on you risk management and ability to read to price action.

The other senario is if these resistance zones are broken (closed above) watch the 9200, then i am alerted to 9229, 9290,/300. for short entries.

Should also be looking at the AUDJPY short 84.39 stop 84.75 and 85.11 stop 85.44 being lowest risk entry.



Forgot to add. AUDUSD i am short on this from 9133 with a stop 9179
  • #12,650
  • Jan 6, 2010 12:11am Jan 6, 2010 12:11am
On my charts the Aussie has been consolidating on top of the weekly R2 pivot line which is 9120 for the past 10 4hr candles.
It suggests that it may make a run for the R3 line which is at 9230.
However on the Daily there is a nice Red Doji which is a classic reversal candle.
I'm short from 9135 with SL @ 9183
  • #12,651
  • Jan 6, 2010 12:15am Jan 6, 2010 12:15am
I dont trade below the 4hr, and the candles on the 4hr are just crazy..no real direction. I think we could hit 9171 if we dont get some real selling soon.
  • #12,652
  • Jan 6, 2010 12:57am Jan 6, 2010 12:57am
Don't be so easily swayed my fellow Texan. I hope you are still up for the 25 plus PIP Red Candle that is quickly materializing.
  • #12,653
  • Edited 1:13am Jan 6, 2010 1:12am | Edited 1:13am
Thank the Lord for limit orders! That piece of US news just now was a beauty, wasn't it?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=a_b_Kti.RxJk#

Happy trading, pip pip!
  • #12,654
  • Jan 6, 2010 1:12am Jan 6, 2010 1:12am
Quoting shahab8b
I like to short this pair more than anyone else but it's not bearish right now, look at this charts H/4H/Daily/Weekly , all bullish, let's see a break of S at .9090 then go short
THe statement by clark, has produces bearish sentiments,
I was still trying to spot a good entry point from the all bullish market, when the news flash update came in. In a matter of minutes, 40 pips are in the row.

AUD/USD Entry point : 0.9140.
AUD/JPY Entry point : 84.18.
  • #12,655
  • Jan 6, 2010 1:14am Jan 6, 2010 1:14am
This is a a great example of what happens when a 14 period Stochasitic runs over 90 for close to five flippin hours not to mention over 70 RSI. Not sure what is holding this up. I just want more than a taste of retracement from whatever transpired Monday.
  • #12,656
  • Jan 6, 2010 2:08am Jan 6, 2010 2:08am
Hey Tex, free tip for ya, EUR/AUD buy right now

EDIT: Oops zoomed in too much, EUR is at 1/8 and AUD is at 7/8, huge difference, look at %R and pivots, E/A is about to FLIP.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #12,657
  • Jan 6, 2010 2:36am Jan 6, 2010 2:36am
Quoting Daytrader74
AUD/USD intraday: consolidation.


Pivot: 0.9185

Preference: Short positions below 0.9185 with targets @ 0.907 & 0.901 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 0.9185 look for further upside with 0.923 & 0.9325 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is capped by a bearish trend line.

Key levels
0.9325
0.923
0.9185
0.912 last
0.907
0.901
0.898

I think you are uysing trading central is'nt?

http://s2.postimage.org/1RNH79.jpg



[img=http://s2.postimage.org/1RNH79.jpg]



http://www.forexfactory.com/%3Ca%20h...9.jpg]%3C/a%3E
  • #12,658
  • Jan 6, 2010 4:06am Jan 6, 2010 4:06am
Short .9140, PA cannot break this Median level, on Daily we have doji so I expect quite down move.
Edited: negative Industrial Orders from EuroZone should help
  • #12,659
  • Jan 6, 2010 7:03am Jan 6, 2010 7:03am
Shake that money tree for Dady
  • #12,660
  • Jan 6, 2010 7:04am Jan 6, 2010 7:04am
Quoting hellboy
hi, im new to forex exchange, i wonder how could u so sure that it'll move up first then down? i find it really difficult to trade, i alway predict wrongly and and lose a great deal of money, i dont know where to start to learn and how i learn any more. im afraid everytime i make order. i need some help but not sure who can, is every one start trading like i trade? always lose money first? if so how long roughly it take u until u start to gain money stady?
if any one else could help i would be greatly appreciate!
Thank you!
(sorry if i spell anything...
You are not alone. I would say most people lose money when they first start. It is not easy. It took me approximately 2.5 years to finally turn a profit. When I say that, I mean that it took me that long to make back my losses. If you are afraid when you are entering a trade, you may need to reduce your position size.

I'm sure everyone has different views on this market but if someone asked me if I would recommend trading forex as a way to gain some extra income, knowing what I know now (after five years), I would have to say no. You'd be better off going out and getting yourself a part time job. This is definitely not the road to riches or some get rich quick scheme. I don't mean to put a dampener on it being the New Year and all but you need to be willing to sacrifice a lot of time and energy.

In saying that, there are many great threads on this forum. Have a look in the Rookie and Trading Discussion sections and spend some time reading about aspects you are unsure of. I'm sure every possible angle has been covered on this forum. Good luck.
Nothing worth having is easy.
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