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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #5,021
  • Edited Jan 6, 2010 1:49am Jan 5, 2010 3:28pm | Edited Jan 6, 2010 1:49am
Quoting FX Compass
Nice to see your here Islander, I have read many of your posts.

Seems to be the current major issue is the correct placement of Fibs.
I know that many different Fib placements as long as placed correctly will tell the same story, but can you shed some light on your thought process?
Hi FX Compass - from a very quick look at your posts I can see that you have put in some good work on this subject and when I have time I'll take a deeper look.....

Please remember that my trading is focused on taking a consistent 50 to 100 pips a day, during a limited time period around the Frankfurt and London Opens, by trading cable and sometimes euro....

Also, my use of fibs is almost exclusively for retracements and entries in what I long ago called the Decision Zone - 38% to 61%.

In addition, I use fibs as a tool for high-lighting a zone in which I will then focus on a an objective "level"....prior S/R, Pivot or Sweet Spot.

So this morning, before FO, I pulled my fib on the 15 min chart across the latest action - yesterdays total range was almost identical and then focused on the Price Action within the Decision Zone. I published my resulatant thoughts / signals elsewhere in real time.

I actually use the 5 min and 1 min charts for my trading and they do have pivots, sweet spots and a couple of MAs - again well published elsewhere.

As soon as I suspect there is a retrace I will consider pulling a 5m or 1 min fib across the last move - these days I normally eyeball it as I'm only looking for the known "levels" where I suspect the retrace will halt....then I'm watching the PA around those "levels" and will trade accordingly.

I posted my cleaned up 5 min chart - 'cause I'm rspecting the thread's topic - it showed typical signals and there were plenty of pips to be pirated...

I dont care whether it hit a 138 extension or anywhere near it - or even if it made a break-out......DID I BANK PIPS?....and when I've collected my daily target I'll happily walk away - OK, I'll often leave a partial trade running, especially if PA is suggesting that the move will continue and it will have a wide stop and a large TP set within "a level" that may use a fib extension as a guide, but only if I feel that its achievable within my trading day......that's the way I think and trade.....

Regards

Islander
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #5,022
  • Jan 5, 2010 3:32pm Jan 5, 2010 3:32pm
Quoting FX Compass
The Fib is plotted correctly from the previous days high to low.

See how price ran to the...
Do you wait until either end 1.382 fib ext is hit then draw your fibs on the single daily candle that hit the 1.382 fib ext or do you draw fibs each day on daily single candles regardless of whether the 1.382 fib ext is hit or not?
  • #5,023
  • Jan 5, 2010 3:40pm Jan 5, 2010 3:40pm
Quote
So the 50 million dollar question is, how de we tell that price has actually retraced to a certain level and is not going further ?

Islander or anyone else, can you shed some light on the last piece of the puzzle. If entry can be confirmed, then the trade becomes a high probability highly accurate result after that.

foremost, i like this thread lately and am happy to read from islander, i wont 4get his response to me when i newly joined FF though harsh but it propeled me to dig it out my self.

first and foremost, fib is just a tool that is good for future price projection. it has some important ratios that are resistance and suspport on itself. these are 78.6, 38.2,61.8 and 50.0(retracement) and 1.18,1.27,1.618 and 2.618(extension)

Over the years, analyst can tell the future projection of price base on its retracement level withing the swing.

retracement at 78.6 will give 1.27 extension
61.8 and 50.0 will give 1.618 extension
then 38.2, most time, we know it will run fast and aggressive to 1.618, it is also worthy to note that failure of 38.2 will give a deeper retracement to the swing before continue its journey.

it should also be noted that price action have a major role to play in determine how well our projected price will be reached.

these are

1. Gap between wave C to D
2. the ratio of number of candles of leg BC in relation to leg AB

establishing these facts, i will now explain how I use fib.

1. the first thing i do is to locate the trend, fib will not tell me this, only wave analysis will do.

euro daily, we could see that price was initially making HH and HL, trading in a bullish channel, tells me we were bullish but price broke the channel, and it moved below the two red lines(HL) and formed a low. this changed bias to bear and i pull the fib to cover the swing.

basically, traders will be watching for a pull back to a any of the fib level that have s/r convergence.

now, let me show u how i handled todays trade with those information established as per using fib

on 1hr, its obvious to note that price have been trading between 1.4460 and 1.4271. that is the trend! from resistance down, is bear and from support up is bull.

i went to 15m Time frame, price rally to resistance, broke a trendline, formed a low, this actually told me we are ready to dip back to 1.4271. so i pulled my fib and was waiting for a pull back, price did pulled back to 61.8 to form a kings crown and from experience, a retracement to 61.8 will lead to 1.618 extension, which price did excellently to the pip........ so we continue to fib again, this time, prior retracement will be the swing hi and the extension will be the swing lo as indicated on my chart.

as for reversal, fib doesnt tell u......... price action does

people might say, its easy to say this from hindsight, well go to www.forexnaija.com and see my analysis for euro and see how target were met today

I hope this answers your question sir?

also note that i take advantage of the market using fib with the following tools

1. wave analysis( not elliot wave......... lol that's hard for me)
2. trendline
3. chart formation
4. pattern formation
5. support and resistance

Its alwayz good to pull fib in the direction of the most recent swing
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  • #5,024
  • Jan 5, 2010 4:17pm Jan 5, 2010 4:17pm
Hey Naijafx....

"foremost, i like this thread lately and am happy to read from islander, i wont 4get his response to me when i newly joined FF though harsh but it propeled me to dig it out my self"

Well done - forex is a harsh business that takes no prisoners and each one of us has to find their own way and own system that suits their personality and desires.....may you prosper

Regards

Islander
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #5,025
  • Jan 5, 2010 4:37pm Jan 5, 2010 4:37pm
Quoting Checkz
Do I leave my fibs on the green candle until the other 1.382 fib ext is hit or should I have moved my fib's to the the next day's single candle(where the red arrows are) and you are really helping me alot. thanks!!!!
Look at my hourly chart.

Your fib was placed on yesterdays candle.
Price bounced around the 0 line for sometime showing no respect.
It is looking quite weak and showing signs of retracing.

The way I would trade this now is a break through the -23.6% will trigger a reversal trade to the -50% retracement take profit.
A strong push through the 0 line with a confirmed consolidation above the 0 line and I am in for a buy to the 138.2.

Then I would move the Fib to the current daily candle once it is completed.

Sometimes the inside candles are lousy. In which case, why trade it.
Look for something better.
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  • #5,026
  • Jan 5, 2010 4:50pm Jan 5, 2010 4:50pm
After every big move in price (up or down) as you have shown, the market takes time to accept the pairs new price.

In other words the consolidation you are seeing at this new level, is the buyers and sellers coming to terms with the new recently arrived at high.

Following this consolidation, you will again see price commence its next move (after breaking out of being rangebound).
  • #5,027
  • Jan 5, 2010 5:04pm Jan 5, 2010 5:04pm
Quoting FX Compass
Look at my hourly chart.

Your fib was placed on yesterdays candle.
Price bounced around the...
Do you mean that the candle I drew fibs on is an inside candle an I should hae drew my fibs on todays candle instead.
  • #5,028
  • Jan 5, 2010 5:13pm Jan 5, 2010 5:13pm
Are you still Skipper on that yacht? You don't fancy picking me up at Greenwich pier do you, it's brass monkeys here and I'm under 6 foot of snow.

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #5,029
  • Jan 5, 2010 5:37pm Jan 5, 2010 5:37pm
Quoting Checkz
Do you mean that the candle I drew fibs on is an inside candle an I should hae drew my fibs on todays candle instead.
No your Fib was fine, I was referring to inside candles in general.

Tighter Fib projections on small inside candles = less pips.
  • #5,030
  • Jan 5, 2010 5:41pm Jan 5, 2010 5:41pm
This may not be the correct forum to post this but I though I would give it a try. I have been learning and studying Forex for about a year. I began by attempting to learn a scalping method through an interactive website. I find it very demanding and very time comsuming. I was shown some indicators by some nice folks at GFT Forex, and I am attempting to apply them to what I know. Forex trading is new to me and I have no other trading background. I am only trading on a demo account, and have been for about 6 months with not much success. I would say that I am stopped out 80% of the time. Obviously I am not doing it right, but I sure want to make this work and need to learn what to do to make my trading better. I am open to suggestions and comments on where to go and what to do. I have been on the BabyPips website and read it cover to cover. I am eager to learn. Any help would be much appreciated.
  • #5,031
  • Jan 5, 2010 6:02pm Jan 5, 2010 6:02pm
I've put an order in to sell Cable at 1.5964. I don't see much to the left of the chart to support it before it hits the 138.

To all you Brits out there take care in the snow. To all you Aussies

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Night MD.
Keep smiling
  • #5,032
  • Jan 5, 2010 6:12pm Jan 5, 2010 6:12pm
Quoting rfarris
This may not be the correct forum to post this but I though I would give it a try. I have been learning and studying Forex for about a year. I began by attempting to learn a scalping method through an interactive website. I find it very demanding and very time comsuming. I was shown some indicators by some nice folks at GFT Forex, and I am attempting to apply them to what I know. Forex trading is new to me and I have no other trading background. I am only trading on a demo account, and have been for about 6 months with not much success. I would...
rfarris, there are plenty of good guys here who I'm sure will be happy to help but I wonder if this particular thread is the right place to begin. I certainly wouldn't recomend starting out as a scalper that is highly stressfull!

There is so much to learn before even attempting to trade. I'll have a think before I start blurting out worthless information. I'm sure some of the other guys here will help also.

Take care.

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #5,033
  • Jan 5, 2010 6:15pm Jan 5, 2010 6:15pm
Quoting rfarris
This may not be the correct forum to post this but I though I would give it a try. I have been learning and studying Forex for about a year. I began by attempting to learn a scalping method through an interactive website. I find it very demanding and very time comsuming. I was shown some indicators by some nice folks at GFT Forex, and I am attempting to apply them to what I know. Forex trading is new to me and I have no other trading background. I am only trading on a demo account, and have been for about 6 months with not much success. I would...
Rfarris,

Check out this thread. You might like it.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=2331

G'Day MD from beautiful sunny Oz.

SK
  • #5,034
  • Jan 5, 2010 6:53pm Jan 5, 2010 6:53pm
Quoting FX Compass
No your Fib was fine, I was referring to inside candles in general.

Tighter Fib projections on small inside candles = less pips.
  • #5,035
  • Jan 5, 2010 7:16pm Jan 5, 2010 7:16pm
My pleasure Checkz.

Hey Skong where abouts in Australia do you reside ?

Seems like Md is freezing to death, I can understand why he needs
the antifreeze (i mean alcohol) running through his blood.
  • #5,036
  • Jan 5, 2010 7:21pm Jan 5, 2010 7:21pm
me thinks GU going short to 1.5925
  • #5,037
  • Jan 5, 2010 8:51pm Jan 5, 2010 8:51pm
Quoting rfarris
This may not be the correct forum to post this but I though I would give it a try. I have been learning and studying Forex for about a year. I began by attempting to learn a scalping method through an interactive website. I find it very demanding and very time comsuming. I was shown some indicators by some nice folks at GFT Forex, and I am attempting to apply them to what I know. Forex trading is new to me and I have no other trading background. I am only trading on a demo account, and have been for about 6 months with not much success. I would...
My best advice to u is to learn about price action and the market Auction Theory. Unless u r prepared to put on tribal makeup and sacrifice small to medium sized animals in the den or living room perhaps, this is not the best place to start your career

Good Trading
  • #5,038
  • Jan 5, 2010 9:37pm Jan 5, 2010 9:37pm
Quoting Misterdaz
I've put an order in to sell Cable at 1.5964. I don't see much to the left of the chart to support it before it hits the 138.

To all you Brits out there take care in the snow. To all you Aussies

Attachment

Night MD.

Here is my analysis of g/u

1. 1hr trend is obviously down, any push upward to the upper fork lines, or sliding parallel (red dash line) is a good short trade.

2. for those that look at the larger picture, the 8 hr chart shows price near its fib extension support. Price tested the 38.2 resistance (red circle) and quickly reached its T1..the 1.382 where its formed a double bottom. You can barely see where we reached the 1.618 T2 , but it was brief. Because off all the candles in the yellow circle i marked, there are 10 candles where price could not push lower, and now we are at the same level again.....

3. The daily chart is bullish for the most part. The green fib is broken..at least imo as i dont use a 75% retrace line, however if I did, this is just another level of support that needs to be looked at. Because this fib is broken, price needs to come down to the next support level of the larger fib which is about 1.5719.

Basically I think the easy money shorting this was made..wait for the next run up to 6050 to 6100..maybe 6150 if its a real strong rally then jump in with everyone else, but dont be a sucker and short the lows.

BIG
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  • #5,039
  • Jan 5, 2010 10:43pm Jan 5, 2010 10:43pm
Quoting trader365
My best advice to u is to learn about price action and the market Auction Theory. Unless u r prepared to put on tribal makeup and sacrifice small to medium sized animals in the den or living room perhaps, this is not the best place to start your career

Good Trading
i agree w/trader365, price action is key to success
Pring on Price by Martin pring is a v. good book on price action
just a suggestion
  • #5,040
  • Jan 5, 2010 10:53pm Jan 5, 2010 10:53pm
Dominate..

As I've mentioned before, waiting for a 'trigger' is suicide. Horrible R:R and the like. Here is a plain jane fib that is offering a short. There is more than this fib going on right now as we speak. There is a clue the market is giving that exposes this up-move for what it is.

If you've been blinded by the skunny light, you'd potentially leave many green pips on the table in this situation. If you knew what was going on behind the scenes and a little more about market structure and mechanics, you'd have multiple options for trade 'triggers' not just price breaking an old price level.

I see the market being intentionally short for now. This could change, but for now the market has not put it's money where it's mouth is.

Selling at the 38 50 and 61 while watching where the money is, is not a bad use for plain jane Bobokus style fibs. Also, when you see whats going on behind the scenes, you don't just pick a place to put stop loss. You make the market prove to you that price is serious about reversing. No this doesn't mean having to lose a lot of pips, but if you listen the market will tell you. And it really doesn't take that much effort.

Anybody who is serious about trading that does not know simple things about how trading works, needs to make learning this your number one priority. Not even babypips can help you if you don't have a good market structure knowledge.

As I've suggested on other threads, I highly suggest a book called "Trading and Exchanges Market Microstucture for Practitioners. by Larry Harris"

It's kind of a boring read, but it will begin opening doors for you in your trading that you never knew were there.

Anyways...I'll shutup..

PS..Keep listening to guys like T365 and Islander!!! They know there stuff!
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