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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #5,001
  • Jan 5, 2010 7:31am Jan 5, 2010 7:31am
Checkz, would you consider 68 points or 70 a win? I'd take either. Nothing is exact, I think even Skunny had a tolerance of 10 pips.

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #5,002
  • Jan 5, 2010 8:17am Jan 5, 2010 8:17am
Quoting Misterdaz
Checkz, would you consider 68 points or 70 a win? I'd take either. Nothing is exact, I think even Skunny had a tolerance of 10 pips.

MD.
Thanks for the help!!!!
  • #5,003
  • Jan 5, 2010 8:43am Jan 5, 2010 8:43am
My kiwi trade that I put on last night hit the target. Gues who forget to set a profit take on it. Trailing stop took me out for a couple of points profit. Trade management is just as important guys, don't be a dickhead like me.

This particular trade was taken on a Thomknight type fib (I'm sure he will tell me it is wrong). Purely experimental though.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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MD.
Keep smiling
  • #5,004
  • Jan 5, 2010 9:09am Jan 5, 2010 9:09am
I drew my fibs off of the single daily candle and I am following it on the hourly shown here. Is this right?
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  • #5,005
  • Jan 5, 2010 11:03am Jan 5, 2010 11:03am
Hi Guys - I've noticed that this thread has become active again and decided that I'd pass by and drop in a post.

For the newbies that dont know me, I've been around FF for a few years now and I've been using fibs for more than 15 years - so that's rather more than Skunny who I guess was starting to peddle Real Estate about that time. However, he did start me thinking and as I'm a trader who looks to make actual money, I started this thread.....
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=69499

Whilst I do still use fibs, they are just another tool - and as they are subjective - you get to decide where to place them - IMO they are of less value than Daily Highs / Lows, Sweet Spots and Daily Pivots all of which are known to all traders who care to use them - and most professionals do.......if you learn to watch Price Action you'll soon see what I mean

Anyway, here's a couple of my cable charts for some of todays action....as I posted elsewhere this morning, there was over 100 pips available just following the PA, which today has acted around some useful fibs too...

I havent updated the charts, but later on price held at the upper green MS1 pivot / fib 50% level before turning and heading down to retest the lower green MS2 level and the earlier lows..it put in a Lower High too, just to remind anyone watching to sell.....I did....it dropped over 50 pips....

So I hope that you guys find your own ways of using fibs as a useful extra tool.....but dont expect to find the moley quail.....
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: jan 5 cable 5m nyo plus 25.gif Size: 18 KB
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  • #5,006
  • Jan 5, 2010 11:33am Jan 5, 2010 11:33am
Hello Islander, I read all your earlier stuff here and have had a quick look at your thread before. What happened to Sizzler? I do take your point about fibs and I look to add them as another part of my trading toolkit. My wife's Cooked me a lovely curry so I'm not going to dissapoint here. I'll have a good look at your charts afterwards.

Thanks again.

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #5,007
  • Jan 5, 2010 12:12pm Jan 5, 2010 12:12pm
this is a good indicator , i used it for breakout it got more thank 400 pip the last week
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File Type: zip Doji_Reader_2.zip   11 KB | 344 downloads
  • #5,008
  • Jan 5, 2010 1:09pm Jan 5, 2010 1:09pm
Quoting Checkz
What does "Also no stoploss entered and therefore no stop hunting mean?" The reason why I am asking is I use to for example enter a trade when the high was hit and I would place a sell entry order at the low just in case the trade reversed and my buy order turned into a sell order. Is this the same thing youre saying?
There are certain fib points which would trigger a reverse trade and close the original trade that failed is closed. Refer my earlier posts.
  • #5,009
  • Jan 5, 2010 1:12pm Jan 5, 2010 1:12pm
Quoting Misterdaz
Hey I know what you are saying on the fibs and I still like you method the best. Just fiddling around with what Thom does out of curiosity.

Gone short cable this morning at 1.6052. Taget 1.5990. Suits you sir!

MD.
Hi Md, nice trade and we can both see target was hit.

Plenty of pips available now as volume has started to lift.
We should be back in full swing by next Monday.
  • #5,010
  • Jan 5, 2010 1:18pm Jan 5, 2010 1:18pm
Quoting Checkz
I don't mean to ask so many questions but in this post do you mean that if I draw fibs on a monthly single cangle I should then move down to a weekly chart and follow price action on that chart by observing the SR levels to see how they react to the fibs previously drawn on the monthly single candle?
Yes Checkz,
What Skunny was correctly alluding to was that a Monthly candle contained all the price action for just over 4 weeks, therefore by pulling a Fib across it, you are in fact taking the high/low points for all those weeks.
You will notice that price respects all Fib lines when you scale down to the smaller time frames.

It gives you a bigger roadmap of what to expect.
  • #5,011
  • Jan 5, 2010 1:20pm Jan 5, 2010 1:20pm
Quoting Misterdaz
Hi mate, a bit of constructive criticism for you. There are times when a daily candle fib does not not cover a perfect swing when you drill down to the hour.

MD.
Can you put up an example and we can go through it together.
  • #5,012
  • Jan 5, 2010 1:37pm Jan 5, 2010 1:37pm
Quoting Islander
Hi Guys - I've noticed that this thread has become active again and decided that I'd pass by and drop in a post.

For the newbies that dont know me, I've been around FF for a few years now and I've been using fibs for more than 15 years - so that's rather more than Skunny who I guess was starting to peddle Real Estate about that time. However, he did start me thinking and as I'm a trader who looks to make actual money, I started this thread.....
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=69499

Whilst I do still use fibs, they are...
Nice to see your here Islander, I have read many of your posts.

Seems to be the current major issue is the correct placement of Fibs.
I know that many different Fib placements as long as placed correctly will tell the same story, but can you shed some light on your thought process?
  • #5,013
  • Jan 5, 2010 1:51pm Jan 5, 2010 1:51pm
I cocked that cable trade up btw but never mind we live and learn.

I'm goiing to post 2 charts, the first is a daily shot of cable on the 17/12/09 with a fib pulled to it's high and low.

Attached Image


The next chart shows us zoomed in with the same fib range but in 1 hour view. For me the start of the swing is the pink square at the top. Now to be fair quite often a daily range very neatly has it's own high and low which are easily discernable so this is not a problem. When the below occurs, and I have mentioned it before to you, I have found it is best to just extend the fib to sit on the whole swing. Anyway I'll wait for your take on it.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Cheers mate.
Keep smiling
  • #5,014
  • Jan 5, 2010 1:54pm Jan 5, 2010 1:54pm
Quoting Checkz
do you still consider this a win even if it a few pip shy of hitting it's target? even though I think it still is going to hit it.
The Fib is plotted correctly from the previous days high to low.

See how price ran to the 0 line and then bounced off resistance.
First sign that we may have a retrace.

I would take a reversal trade from the -23.6 Fib (which you don't have to the -50 Fib.

Next, price gathers momentum again and attcks the 0 Fib line (resistance) a second time. An ever weaker attempt to break the line this time.
Indicated by lower levels reached on the candle bodies than the first time.

Looks like we really have a reversal coming on now.

Next trade the -23.6 to the -50 Fib line again.

price finally breaks the -100 at the other end = confirmed reversal.

Another trade from the 100 to the -138.2 below it.

Three trades taken all succesful.

See how although the Fib turned out to be placed upside down for the days action that followed, the story that price told around the lines was still crystal clear and three profitable trades were taken.

My point is as long as the original Fib is placed from a significant wave High to low in this case a daily candle, then you will always get a crystal clear story told.

This is why Skunny said that so much information is contained in one candle on the higher timeframes. It also removes any ambiguity in applying the Fibs.
  • #5,015
  • Jan 5, 2010 1:55pm Jan 5, 2010 1:55pm
Compass look how much better the next day looks when we pull that fib to the top of the swing, a nice reversal trade as well, forget the last pink box, got carried away.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable171209.JPG Size: 100 KB


MD.
Keep smiling
  • #5,016
  • Jan 5, 2010 2:05pm Jan 5, 2010 2:05pm
Quoting Misterdaz
I cocked that cable trade up btw but never mind we live and learn.

I'm goiing to post 2 charts, the first is a daily shot of cable on the 17/12/09 with a fib pulled to it's high and low.

Attachment

The next chart shows us zoomed in with the same fib range but in 1 hour view. For me the start of the swing is the pink square at the top. Now to be fair quite often a daily range very neatly has it's own high and low which are easily discernable so this is not a problem. When the below occurs, and I have mentioned it before to you,...
Hi Md,

Fibs apply a ratio or scaling dependant on the distance between the 0 line and 100 Line. I always run the Fib across one daily candle High/Low - no exceptions. A good indicator to whether the Fib is placed correctly is if the Fib lines are respected by the candle bodies (not necessarily wicks).

If you moved this Fib up, results would be similar but simply one level down.

Regardless, the application of the Fib from high to low of one daily candle removes any possibility of incorrect interpretation by the trader as it is a standardised application each day. Therefore we have removed a variable which may cause error with any future readings and subsequently made our trading far more consistent in its methodology.

Everyday our Fib will have the same framework and price will be read off the same structure - everyday.

Check the explanation given above (Post 5013) and you will see exactly what I mean. The story gets told regardless, as long as the Fib is in its set position.
  • #5,017
  • Jan 5, 2010 2:16pm Jan 5, 2010 2:16pm
That's cleared that up then. You could see my point though about fibs always being on a swing, it doesn't always work that way daily down to hourly but I'm all for sticking to a consistent system, I don't like grey areas. I'll steer clear of that ponit now especially as my wife was talking about emigrating to Oz today. I told her I dont like munchkins anyway.

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #5,018
  • Jan 5, 2010 2:18pm Jan 5, 2010 2:18pm
So the 50 million dollar question is, how de we tell that price has actually retraced to a certain level and is not going further ?

Islander or anyone else, can you shed some light on the last piece of the puzzle. If entry can be confirmed, then the trade becomes a high probability highly accurate result after that.
  • #5,019
  • Jan 5, 2010 2:38pm Jan 5, 2010 2:38pm
Quoting FX Compass
So the 50 million dollar question is, how de we tell that price has actually retraced to a certain level and is not going further ?

Islander or anyone else, can you shed some light on the last piece of the puzzle. If entry can be confirmed, then the trade becomes a high probability highly accurate result after that.
We go for the highest probabilities, I don't think we can ever be 100% certain on anything. There are candle patterns I suppose but I'm sure I don't need to tell you that. I often have more conviction when a 61.8 is reached and breached as to a reversal of direction. Maybe we need to look to higher timeframes for this answer.

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #5,020
  • Jan 5, 2010 3:06pm Jan 5, 2010 3:06pm
Quoting Misterdaz
Hello Islander, I read all your earlier stuff here and have had a quick look at your thread before. What happened to Sizzler? I do take your point about fibs and I look to add them as another part of my trading toolkit. My wife's Cooked me a lovely curry so I'm not going to dissapoint here. I'll have a good look at your charts afterwards.

Thanks again.

MD.
Hi - hope the curry was good, I've just enjoyed some salmon....curry's on the menu tomorrow...

Sizzler - he's a blast from the past - I've never known anyone who could type so fast and say so much http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon11.gif.....I lost touch when he and many others went off into that "selective site".......my scepticism and desire for real time posts made me unwelcome, so I dont know if he continued.....I do hope that some of them are now actually trading and making pips, rather than just making endless posts.

Cheers

Issy - LOL, that's a Sizzler-ism http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
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