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AUD/USD

  • #12,581
  • Jan 4, 2010 5:02pm Jan 4, 2010 5:02pm
Quoting amyc
I think that the time has almost come to short the aud, i will be looking for shorts today around the 9178-9200 level. The left chart shows why the aud could not be shorted yesterday, when the bar closes above the resistance it will always move up into the next pink resistance levels. Before a sustained down move can happen for me it will need to touch the green highs on the RH chart.

After this move up the aud definitely looks less bearish on the higher timeframe levels but i am still looking at shorts currently just bc of the position of the...
Hi amyc, what's that fancy indicator you use?would you mind sharing it here?
  • #12,582
  • Jan 4, 2010 5:04pm Jan 4, 2010 5:04pm
AUD/USD: Set To Open Asia On Strong Note After Fast 2010 Start Sydney, January 05: After being one of the best performing currencies in 2009 - the AUD has got off to a flying start in 2010 gaining 1.75% against the USD and 1.35% against the JPY since the Dec 31 close. The AUD and fellow commodity currencies the NZD and CAD were boosted by significant moves higher in commodities and equities following strong manufacturing data from China, Europe and the US.
The AUD/USD looks set to close the day above the 55-Day MA at 0.9111 - the first daily close above that reading since December 14. The next level of resistance is found at the top of the daily ichimoku cloud, which will come in at 0.9146 on Tuesday. A break above 0.9150 targets early December highs made between 0.9175/0.9200.
Analysts say that investors are pouring back into the AUD/USD after paring back AUD/USD longs in mid-December due to end of year position adjustments. The mood of global investors as we start 2010 is elevated as shown in the VIX index, which fell 7.5% on Monday to be sitting right on the 20 level.
There isn"t any data in Asia today - so the market will be looking to flows out of Tokyo after investors there sold the AUD/JPY yesterday. The cross has moved above 84.50 from the Asian low around 83.00 and there is bound to be selling interest on approaches towards key resistance between 85.30/60. Hourly support and the 55-day MA between 0.9110/15 provide support on the day for the AUD/USD and only a break below 0.9110 would take the pressure off of the topside.
As expected the AUD was well supported ahead of the 100 day MA and aggressively took out the 0.9010 resistance that was capping the move higher. From here we should expect to see some stalling ahead of the 0.9200 level and we may look to cover ahead with a view to buying the break. Move higher has daily techs all heading north with room to move.
  • #12,583
  • Jan 4, 2010 5:10pm Jan 4, 2010 5:10pm
AUD/USD intraday: caution.


Pivot: 0.9155

Preference: Short positions below 0.9155 with targets @ 0.904 & 0.901 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 0.9155 look for further upside with 0.9185 & 0.923 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is overbought and is reversing down.

Key levels
0.923
0.9185
0.9155
0.913 last
0.904
0.901
0.895
Attached Image
  • #12,584
  • Jan 4, 2010 5:13pm Jan 4, 2010 5:13pm
Quoting shahab8b
Hi amyc, what's that fancy indicator you use?would you mind sharing it here?
They are 0.618 and 100% fib levels based on range bars. The chart posted earlier showed 85 pip range bars, i also use 140 pips range bars.
The green lines on the left hand chart are based on the last 2 140 pip ranges completed.
You need to beable to put multiple timeframes on the one chart to replicate what i do.
  • #12,585
  • Jan 4, 2010 5:28pm Jan 4, 2010 5:28pm
Violation of 0.9011 high opens 0.9195 next. Support is at 0.8902.
  • #12,586
  • Jan 4, 2010 5:39pm Jan 4, 2010 5:39pm
Quoting amyc
I think that the time has almost come to short the aud, i will be looking for shorts today around the 9178-9200 level. The left chart shows why the aud could not be shorted yesterday, when the bar closes above the resistance it will always move up into the next pink resistance levels. Before a sustained down move can happen for me it will need to touch the green highs on the RH chart.

After this move up the aud definitely looks less bearish on the higher timeframe levels but i am still looking at shorts currently just bc of the position of the...
Hi,
Tend to agree about aud - usd boing bullish at same time. I am in short on eu from london so see how we go, stranger things have happened with big boys still waking up. Just a question if I might, if that is mt4 you are using, do you have the fib indicator to share. Would save a lot of hand drawing of fibs.
Cheers
  • #12,587
  • Jan 4, 2010 5:41pm Jan 4, 2010 5:41pm
Quoting brooky29
Hi,
Tend to agree about aud - usd boing bullish at same time. I am in short on eu from london so see how we go, stranger things have happened with big boys still waking up. Just a question if I might, if that is mt4 you are using, do you have the fib indicator to share. Would save a lot of hand drawing of fibs.
Cheers

Sorry its not mt4 its fibonacci trader
  • #12,588
  • Jan 4, 2010 6:12pm Jan 4, 2010 6:12pm
Yeah baby shake it shake it
  • #12,589
  • Jan 4, 2010 6:16pm Jan 4, 2010 6:16pm
Quoting Daytrader74
Violation of 0.9011 high opens 0.9195 next. Support is at 0.8902.
It was looking like the tree needed some fertiliser, starting to grow now.
  • #12,590
  • Jan 4, 2010 8:54pm Jan 4, 2010 8:54pm
will it just head down from here or will we see 92 first, what are peoples thoughts??
  • #12,591
  • Jan 4, 2010 8:59pm Jan 4, 2010 8:59pm
Is anyone still short?

Im thinking of going short to attempt to capture some retracement although not sure if that's playing russian roulette...
  • #12,592
  • Jan 4, 2010 8:59pm Jan 4, 2010 8:59pm
Quoting amyc
will it just head down from here or will we see 92 first, what are peoples thoughts??
92 first but not just yet
  • #12,593
  • Jan 4, 2010 9:04pm Jan 4, 2010 9:04pm
Quoting oztrader1
Is anyone still short?

Im thinking of going short to attempt to capture some retracement although not sure if that's playing russian roulette...
i am trying to bulid a short position to trade down to the 86 region, i have 2 at 9158 so far, but i'm just not feeling that confident currently, i can see possibilities of 93 if it can't start going down in the next day or so.
i have 3shorts on the euro at 1.4436 that i have been holding since last week which i have slightly higher confidence in.
  • #12,594
  • Jan 4, 2010 9:15pm Jan 4, 2010 9:15pm
I am wondering if we are even still in a downtrend. if we were in a downtrend then i should beable to short the green highs at 9050 with high confidence, price shouldn't be trading up above them. I spent all of the uptrend last year buying the green lows each week, only once did they break and that was in June.

What do peoples long term trend lines say?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud.GIF Size: 19 KB
  • #12,595
  • Jan 4, 2010 9:26pm Jan 4, 2010 9:26pm
Quoting amyc
I am wondering if we are even still in a downtrend. if we were in a downtrend then i should beable to short the green highs at 9050 with high confidence, price shouldn't be trading up above them. I spent all of the uptrend last year buying the green lows each week, only once did they break and that was in June.

What do peoples long term trend lines say?

The break of the neckline opened the door for a test of the daily descending TL, which is currently at 9182.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aussie.gif Size: 23 KB
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #12,596
  • Jan 4, 2010 9:40pm Jan 4, 2010 9:40pm
Thanks texasforex.
weekly and 4hr say i can short at 9197-9205 so i will try adding there. above that and i will be exiting quickly and waiting for 93.

dx is currently looking weak, looks like the euro will move up as well come london session
  • #12,597
  • Jan 4, 2010 10:24pm Jan 4, 2010 10:24pm
I like this eur/aud setup. going long here @ 1.5810.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud.gif Size: 18 KB
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #12,598
  • Jan 4, 2010 10:30pm Jan 4, 2010 10:30pm
For now I'm changing my view on the aud, i am bullish up to 9303, as shown in the above chart. But i won't be changing my view on the euro until it breaks above 1.4482, shown below.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro.GIF Size: 31 KB
  • #12,599
  • Jan 5, 2010 12:05am Jan 5, 2010 12:05am
i'm still beariah on AUD/USD, each time it goes up i will put some more money, i dont know if this succeed.
  • #12,600
  • Jan 5, 2010 12:45am Jan 5, 2010 12:45am
Quoting yeri
i'm still beariah on AUD/USD, each time it goes up i will put some more money, i dont know if this succeed.
hey buddy. dont bet on a direction. i think u shd rather go with the flow, i mean doing what the market is doing. well who know maybe u are only riking like 0.05% of ur acct. in that case u are good to go.
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