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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #4,941
  • Jan 4, 2010 2:57am Jan 4, 2010 2:57am
hello trader365

here is example of trade taken today on nzdusd

look at the convergence

1. Trend saying bull, consistent higher high and higher low
2. 4hr trendline broken and retested
3. price level where demand was greater than supply retested(resistance turned support)
4. 61.8 fib level

sure bet that this is A+ setup!

that's my view about the market
  • #4,942
  • Jan 4, 2010 5:07am Jan 4, 2010 5:07am
A couple of demo trades I took.

First, compass this is for you.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_Compass.png Size: 32 KB


Thomknight, this is for you. Same chart, same fib range but from a different angle. Much respect.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_Thomknight.png Size: 17 KB


S/R guys. First trade saw a test of support then a break.

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #4,943
  • Jan 4, 2010 6:33am Jan 4, 2010 6:33am
[quote=trader365;3337172]So that is my point...the fib doesn't create the s/r level. The s/r level is there because buyers and sellers see value or exhaustion...period.

so confluence is fine but a fib as confluence?? The fib might line up with the truth about what is happening in the mkt but the fib it is not the truth.

If it makes u feel better as guidance, I'm glad it works for u. All I am trying to say is that the mkt is an auction. If u think of any business, a product or service is sold, hopefully for a profit. If another company is selling the same thing for less, u have a decision to make....lower ur price or lose the sale. So if all the companies that sell the same products don't want to lose business, then they will lower their prices. Eventually, there will be a bottom in which no company can go below w/o losing $$ The companies that can't compete will go out of business.....as ridiculous as this sounds, you get the picture.

The mkt is no different. Supply and demand. Eventually, prices will move until all the smaller guys are out(stop running etc) and the mkt then finds a place of fair value and you will notice the sideways action. Once all they buyers and sellers pair off and they are finished doing business at that price level....off we go again.

Again....thinking of the mkts this way might shed some light on why the mkts do what they do. Fibs or no fibs.....the mkt is based on supply and demand and a fib level is not the cause of that supply and demand. If ur fibs line up there anyway...so be it....but why do u really need them if they are lining up with s/r anyway....chicken, egg?

Good Trading[/quote.


Hello T 365,
I agee with everything in your above post specially inregards to markets mechanics and looking at it crutchless.. very well explained.. thank you.

Forest Gump (that’s me), got couple of questions and would highly apperciate your prespective here..

S/R.. I think we can agree that they meant to be broken at some point and time… at any parituclar time when price is pressing at it, they will be either broken or be bounced off..
my question is:
What do u do about it?.. Take action when its broken/bounced off.. if yes in what manner?
But more importantly.. when you do taken action.. what is your game plan when faced with a fakeout? (and we all know that there are no 100% accuracy)

I would appreciate a nutshell answer here.. don’t wanna take toomuch of your time..
Thank you.
  • #4,944
  • Jan 4, 2010 6:40am Jan 4, 2010 6:40am
Quoting bartstop
Don't take this as the holy gospel, I'm just sharing my experience (what little there is). When I'm drawing my fibs, there is a run up (or down) in price, then a retracement. The retracement is what we are concerned with, not the initial run up (or down). I use the initial run only to get me in the ballpark. In your blue fib, it looks like you are trying to match your inner fibs to the s/r lines in the initial run. I haven't had any luck doing it like that. When there is a long wick in the retracement, I try to match that with one of my inner fib...

Quoting Skunny
......However, the higher time frames trump the lower ones.......

Something else I want to add. When you have a fib pulled on a daily chart, and then you are pulling another fib on a smaller timeframe like the hourly. If that smaller fib is overlapping with the inner lines from the larger, be carefull, the price is more likely to react to the lines from the larger fib and may render your smaller fib useless. It's funny how Skunnys words make more and more sence as time goes on.

Again, someone correct me if I'm wrong.
  • #4,945
  • Edited 6:52am Jan 4, 2010 6:40am | Edited 6:52am
Quoting Naijafx
hello trader365

here is example of trade taken today on nzdusd

look at the convergence

1. Trend saying bull, consistent higher high and higher low
2. 4hr trendline broken and retested
3. price level where demand was greater than supply retested(resistance turned support)
4. 61.8 fib level

sure bet that this is A+ setup!

that's my view about the market
Very nice. I guess the dashed red line is the buy trigger. I'm glad it's working for you. I do not like to enter trades on a 1 hour chart.


Good Trading
  • #4,946
  • Jan 4, 2010 6:49am Jan 4, 2010 6:49am
I'm sure T365 will have a better answer than me but for s/r trading have a look at Sam Seidens webinars at fxstreet.com, his stuff is brilliant. If you get a fakeout, well that's what a stop is for isn't it?

I hope this helps, MD.
Keep smiling
  • #4,947
  • Jan 4, 2010 6:52am Jan 4, 2010 6:52am
Quoting Misterdaz
I'm sure T365 will have a better answer than me but for s/r trading have a look at Sam Seidens webinars at fxstreet.com, his stuff is brilliant. If you get a fakeout, well that's what a stop is for isn't it?

I hope this helps, MD.
Nope...I agree, that's what stops are for. I use them all the time

Good Trading
  • #4,948
  • Jan 4, 2010 7:04am Jan 4, 2010 7:04am
If I had a pound for every time I mentioned Sam Seiden......
Keep smiling
  • #4,949
  • Jan 4, 2010 7:13am Jan 4, 2010 7:13am
Hello T 365,
I agee with everything in your above post specially inregards to markets mechanics and looking at it crutchless.. very well explained.. thank you.

Forest Gump (that’s me), got couple of questions and would highly apperciate your prespective here..

S/R.. I think we can agree that they meant to be broken at some point and time… at any parituclar time when price is pressing at it, they will be either broken or be bounced off..
my question is:
What do u do about it?.. Take action when its broken/bounced off.. if yes in what manner?
But more importantly.. when you do taken action.. what is your game plan when faced with a fakeout? (and we all know that there are no 100% accuracy)

I would appreciate a nutshell answer here.. don’t wanna take toomuch of your time..
Thank you.[/quote]

Fxachilies,

I use different methods when PA calls for it. I will use a TL break, a reversal bar, a left shoulder. My entries are more about timing. I look for basic setups at pre determined areas. I then look to see how far and how fast the mkt is going when it get to my s/r area(I try not to stand in front of a speeding train....anymore). I drill down inside the longer time frame charts and watch the battle.

Most of the traders in FX seem to be stuck on the 1&4 hr time frames. I personally don't have that kind of patience. I am looking for an entry off a much smaller TF, as I have mentioned before. By the time some traders are entering off the 1 hr.....I am taking my exit. This is just my style and really makes no difference. The setups are basically the same on different TF charts but I do not like to be in trades for hours.

I look for a switch in Momentum at a s/r level. If I am looking for a long, as an eg., and I have a few s/r levels below, if the mkt is dropping like a stone I will might wait for the second level to be tested. If price fall short of the 2nd level I will either miss the trade or I can always try to enter on the way back up. Or I might take a small position at the first level and re enter at the next level below but this must be pre determined. I do not average into a position just for the sake of getting a better price. I've learned my lesson.

To me, the stronger s/r levels are the ones that take place during the most active trading hours...when there is the most volume ...buyers and sellers doing business. Otherwise I'm just not as interested.

Hope this helps.

Good Trading
  • #4,950
  • Jan 4, 2010 8:08am Jan 4, 2010 8:08am
Quoting trader365
Hello T 365,
I agee with everything in your above post specially inregards to markets mechanics and looking at it crutchless.. very well explained.. thank you.

Forest Gump (that’s me), got couple of questions and would highly apperciate your prespective here..

[size=3][font=Calibri]S/R.. I think we can agree that they meant to be broken at some point and time… at any parituclar time when price is pressing at it, they will be either broken...
Fxachilies,

I use different methods when PA calls for it. I will use a TL break, a reversal bar, a left shoulder. My entries are more about timing. I look for basic setups at pre determined areas. I then look to see how far and how fast the mkt is going when it get to my s/r area(I try not to stand in front of a speeding train....anymore). I drill down inside the longer time frame charts and watch the battle.

Most of the traders in FX seem to be stuck on the 1&4 hr time frames. I personally don't have that kind of patience. I am looking for an entry off a much smaller TF, as I have mentioned before. By the time some traders are entering off the 1 hr.....I am taking my exit. This is just my style and really makes no difference. The setups are basically the same on different TF charts but I do not like to be in trades for hours.

I look for a switch in Momentum at a s/r level. If I am looking for a long, as an eg., and I have a few s/r levels below, if the mkt is dropping like a stone I will might wait for the second level to be tested. If price fall short of the 2nd level I will either miss the trade or I can always try to enter on the way back up. Or I might take a small position at the first level and re enter at the next level below but this must be pre determined. I do not average into a position just for the sake of getting a better price. I've learned my lesson.

To me, the stronger s/r levels are the ones that take place during the most active trading hours...when there is the most volume ...buyers and sellers doing business. Otherwise I'm just not as interested.

Hope this helps.

Good Trading[/quote]


thanks for the reply.. I was just wondering how you manage the s/r..
may I ask what timeframe you use for trigger.. and s/r's of which timefram you take into account mostly..

Thank you..

ps) i trade in similar way as u do... if you the time to checkout our trade "system II"feb2865.. I am a active member.. be glad to hear your opinion.
  • #4,951
  • Jan 4, 2010 8:49am Jan 4, 2010 8:49am
e/u going to 1.4473
  • #4,952
  • Jan 4, 2010 9:42am Jan 4, 2010 9:42am
Quoting fxachilies
Fxachilies,



thanks for the reply.. I was just wondering how you manage the s/r..
may I ask what timeframe you use for trigger.. and s/r's of which timefram you take into account mostly..

Thank you..

ps) i trade in similar way as u do... if you the time to checkout our trade "system II"feb2865.. I am a active member.. be glad to hear your opinion.

I use 1,3, 5 min to time my entries. As far as s/r levels go...it's not as cut and dry an answer as you would probably likebut let me try.

First of all, as mentioned, the more important s/r levels ar ethe ones that occur during avtive trading hours....more participants, more vol, more contracts changing hands in an area or zone if u will. To me, the more people that find value at a price level or zone, the more interest I have.

So I will start with the most recent and work my way backwards. How many times can a s/r level be tested before it holds or breaks? I have found that 3 is a pretty common occurrence but these are things that are individual to each trader. I also like vol as a my main tool. Volume is a touchy subject in the FX world because it varies from broker to broker. To me, it's relative vol though....are we making higher highs on lower vol?? Are the higher hi's going into s/r levels or range hi's?? etc. That is what helps me with momo

I'm not sure what the trade system 2865 is. Not sure what u r referring to.

Good Trading
  • #4,953
  • Jan 4, 2010 10:03am Jan 4, 2010 10:03am
Quoting dead possum
e/u going to 1.4473
Hope ur long a bunch!!

Good Trading
  • #4,954
  • Jan 4, 2010 10:12am Jan 4, 2010 10:12am
Quoting trader365
I use 1,3, 5 min to time my entries. As far as s/r levels go...it's not as cut and dry an answer as you would probably likebut let me try.

First of all, as mentioned, the more important s/r levels ar ethe ones that occur during avtive trading hours....more participants, more vol, more contracts changing hands in an area or zone if u will. To me, the more people that find value at a price level or zone, the more interest I have.

So I will start with the most recent and work my way backwards. How many times can a s/r level be tested before it...
thanks for the quick reply again.. appreciated..

my apology I miss spelled there..
i was talking about the thread called "system II (yes with Irony).. feb2865 is the thread owner and i am senior memeber.. If you have the time to check it out it be great.. we use the 5m charts aswell and take the quickest enteries based on 1-2-3 setup to ride the bus early.

Thank you.
  • #4,955
  • Jan 4, 2010 11:16am Jan 4, 2010 11:16am
Quoting fxachilies
thanks for the quick reply again.. appreciated..

my apology I miss spelled there..
i was talking about the thread called "system II (yes with Irony).. feb2865 is the thread owner and i am senior memeber.. If you have the time to check it out it be great.. we use the 5m charts aswell and take the quickest enteries based on 1-2-3 setup to ride the bus early.

Thank you.
Yes it sounds quite similar to my way of thinking. As far as entries go, from what I have read so far, there are many similarities. It will depend on PA as to whether or not I might take a trade that appears at fisrt glance to be the same as the previous setup.

Odds & probs., as I keep repeating, is the name of this business or any biz for that matter. If you were to start a biz the right way, some of the things you should know for better chances of success....fixed expenses, working capital, demographics, Insurance...just to name a few. You should have a biz plan, prof forma, projections etc. and then plan to have some extra cash in case some of the numbers are off.

If you start a biz off the right way, instead of just winging it, there are odds and probs. of success and failure....right?? So if trading is a biz, why should it be any different?? There is no guarantee that a biz will work out just as there is no guarantee that a trade will work out...just O&P.

I will look further at his thread when I can. It's 800 pages tho & not sure I will have time to read thru the whole thing.

Good Trading
  • #4,956
  • Jan 4, 2010 11:57am Jan 4, 2010 11:57am
Another trade I took today. Price was respecting my 61.8, it popped thru, pulled back then I took a short at the second attempt, hit target.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf0401.JPG Size: 92 KB


MD.
Keep smiling
  • #4,957
  • Jan 4, 2010 12:12pm Jan 4, 2010 12:12pm
Quoting Misterdaz
A couple of demo trades I took.

First, compass this is for you.

Attachment

Thomknight, this is for you. Same chart, same fib range but from a different angle. Much respect.

Attachment

S/R guys. First trade saw a test of support then a break.

MD.
Great to see they are coming together for you Md.

Persistence pays.

Are you seeing prices in the crosshairs now ?
  • #4,958
  • Jan 4, 2010 12:18pm Jan 4, 2010 12:18pm
Of course it's not guaranteed. But at least we've been trending up.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: indicatorfree20.jpg Size: 78 KB
  • #4,959
  • Jan 4, 2010 12:27pm Jan 4, 2010 12:27pm
Another one
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: indicatorfree21.jpg Size: 63 KB
  • #4,960
  • Jan 4, 2010 12:32pm Jan 4, 2010 12:32pm
Quoting FX Compass
Great to see they are coming together for you Md.

Persistence pays.

Are you seeing prices in the crosshairs now ?
Yes Compass. I've found if I wear my Avatar 3d glasses everything makes sense!

Scotty, I see you have a bit of respect going on.

I've been looking at a mixture of everything, fib respect, range fibs and s/r, oh and whisky and coke.

MD.
Keep smiling
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