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Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

  • #8,861
  • Edited 5:57pm Jan 3, 2010 10:24am | Edited 5:57pm
Quoting LarryK
I realise that this week may not be a good time to trade, but ignoring that, I see an opportunity to trade this pair long by placing an order at say 9020 with the stop at 8890, the plan being to take the ride up to the previous high at 9400. This level at around 9000 seems to be fairly important and worth trading a decent break of the line here. The trade would be in the direction of the trend of the Boss and BBoss.
Comments would be appreciated regarding the appropriateness of the analysis and ignoring the possible unsuitable time to trade.

Larry...
Quite honestly Larry I can't see any reason (other than it being in the direction of the longterm trend, as you point out) for going long on this at the moment. You are right up against the 20MA and on the static SR line. What makes you think it will break up through this? On my chart, last Week was a bull but that was an untypical trading week and the Monthly chart shows a Bear candle but with distinct 'undecided tendencies' - if you understand me. Again, the month was untypical.

This is certainly one of the pairs I am watching and have been trading at various points in the last few months but for now I will be sitting on my hands!

As Strat has said many times, if it doesn't jump out at you, don't trade it. If any chart seems 'undecided' to you it is better to leave it. A clear move will come along somewhere and if you have to wait? well you haven't lost anything! Remember, the game here is NOT TO LOSE.

If you keep it simple, chose signals that 'jump out', and control your risk carefully, you will make gains which are profitable and the few losses which are inevitable will not wipe out those profits. Okay, you won't get enormously rich very quickly, but just a few hundred pips in the bank at the end of most months is profit which you wouldn't have had otherwise and is tremendously encouraging!!

The story of the tortoise and the hare could have been written for trading Forex!

At least that's my view!
  • #8,862
  • Jan 3, 2010 10:30am Jan 3, 2010 10:30am
Quoting strat
The trade would be in the direction of the trend of the Boss and BBoss.

Which? These two are in conflict
Then I need help with the trend because on my weekly chart price is still above the 20ma which is miles above the 50ma, I would have thought the Boss had not done enough to be called a down trend specially after the hammer and confirmation bullish candle.
The single bearish Dec candle with buyers coming in strongly does not seem to qualify the Big Boss as in a down trend.

Having said all that I do not intend to trade because of the market probably still being in low volume holiday mode. It just looked like it had possibilities in normal circumstances.

Thanks for the responses from the others as well

Larry
  • #8,863
  • Jan 3, 2010 10:48am Jan 3, 2010 10:48am
Quoting Lotuselanman
Quite honestly Larry I can't see any reason (other than it being in the direction of the trend, as you point out) for going long on this at the moment. You are right up against the 20MA and on the static SR line. What makes you think it will break up through this? On my chart, last Week was a bull but that was an untypical trading week and the Monthly chart shows a Bear candle but with distinct 'undecided tendencies' - if you understand me. Again, the month was untypical.

This is certainly one of the pairs I am watching and have been trading at...
Good advice that I will try to implement, I have no intention of 'searching' for trades, I hope the only ones I take will be 'jumpers', as I said already the time of year would give me pause to not trade this anyway, but I will watch it with interest. My entry would have meant the price had got beyond that SR and above the 20ma.

cheers

Larry
  • #8,864
  • Jan 3, 2010 10:49am Jan 3, 2010 10:49am
Quoting strat
Will wait to enter long.

But WHERE and WHEN?



I know this is with a lot of hindsight but isn't the entry and stop fairly obvious, especially with the SR levels in that area.

And before you ask - no I didn't take this one.

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  • #8,865
  • Jan 3, 2010 11:19am Jan 3, 2010 11:19am
Quoting stewrigh
[/color]


I know this is with a lot of hindsight but isn't the entry and stop fairly obvious, especially with the SR levels in that area.

And before you ask - no I didn't take this one.

Attachment
That's the PAST.

Soso is talking about the FUTURE
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,866
  • Jan 3, 2010 11:43am Jan 3, 2010 11:43am
Quoting LarryK
Hi SOSO
My only problem with going long would be it appears to be against the trend, so I would have to wait for it to reach the upper part of the range to trade it short if I got decent PA

good luck in 2010

Larry
I am letting myself guided by the BIG BOSS "recent" action, which is obvious hammer at obvious support, which says bullish to me. That's all, I really want to keep things simple this year and let myself guided by price action, especially on larger TFs.

Going down to Daily it really is rangy but I like the false breakdown which is a sign that breakout sellers were trapped, which brings more fuel to the potential bullish momentum.

To Strat, I dont know if & when, as long as there is no clear bullish PA I'll stand aside, just pointed out the situation on this pair which is worth close watching imo.
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #8,867
  • Jan 3, 2010 12:25pm Jan 3, 2010 12:25pm
Here's how I'm seeing audusd. There is still a chance that price may test the broken trend line with a bigger HH or LH test yet. Strong trends such as this don't just 'end' without a fight!!
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Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #8,868
  • Jan 3, 2010 6:14pm Jan 3, 2010 6:14pm
Quoting Grimweasel
Here's how I'm seeing audusd. There is still a chance that price may test the broken trend line with a bigger HH or LH test yet. Strong trends such as this don't just 'end' without a fight!!
And its been fighting for the last couple of months.... shorts (if they happen) are likely to be sharp but limited IMO and I will feel more confident of a new DT after 8700 has been clearly breached.

So the best thing is to wait for clear PA at the current level to confirm (or otherwise) the move further down.
  • #8,869
  • Jan 3, 2010 7:11pm Jan 3, 2010 7:11pm
The dawn of realisation:

aicccia
Carpe Diem

Member Since Jun 2006
760 Posts

Hey guys, I have some sad news.

I finished the EA and back tested it. And no matter how good the results are over the last 3 months, it always loses money when I forward test it.

I've been messing with indicators and EAs for 4 years now and today I'm finished with them. Like the real pros say, it just isn't worth it. I'll be trading with just trendlines, fibos and round numbers now, which is probably something I should have started doing a long time ago.

Thanks for the support on this thread and others, I'll see you guys on the other side.
__________________
It’s not that I’m so smart, it’s just that I stay with problems longer. - Albert Einstein
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,870
  • Jan 3, 2010 7:17pm Jan 3, 2010 7:17pm
Found this on another Site: EURUSD YEARLY
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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,871
  • Jan 3, 2010 10:10pm Jan 3, 2010 10:10pm
Hi Strat, on your worker chart (daily), how many candles do you have to show the swings (where you put S&R lines)? The reason I ask is because when I zoom out far enough on the daily, the swings I see in the window start to look like the swings I see on the weekly not zoomed out.

Right now my daily TF window shows Sept 2009 on the left edge, that's 4 months worth of data.
  • #8,872
  • Jan 3, 2010 10:36pm Jan 3, 2010 10:36pm
Quoting strat
Found this on another Site: EURUSD YEARLY
That is interesting... looks like the last two years have formed doji's which signifies indecision.

The year 2000, also looks like a hammer.
  • #8,873
  • Jan 4, 2010 2:19am Jan 4, 2010 2:19am
Quoting LarryK
I realise that this week may not be a good time to trade, but ignoring that, I see an opportunity to trade this pair long by placing an order at say 9020 with the stop at 8890, the plan being to take the ride up to the previous high at 9400. This level at around 9000 seems to be fairly important and worth trading a decent break of the line here. The trade would be in the direction of the trend of the Boss and BBoss.
Comments would be appreciated regarding the appropriateness of the analysis and ignoring the possible unsuitable time to trade....
Hello Larry
I am new to this thread and after finishing J16 am now working my way from both ends.
My comments may not be valid as far as the overall method of this system but I think they may help.
Regardless of various bars and the trend for me a few things are critical.

1. the long term long trend from March 2009, was broken late November and continued to remain that way through early December.
2. As with most typical trendline break the price will retest the trend line before continuing the new direction. This is currently under way, so far todays bar is looking positive for the upside.
3. the move down from the 3rd of December to 23 December is not a higher low.

so ultimately, Would I take this trade, that would depend on my money management and the risk versus reward. As I see the upside to the .91 /.9150
I would have a tight stop.
  • #8,874
  • Jan 4, 2010 4:23am Jan 4, 2010 4:23am
But it also forms an inside bar.


Quoting pipfx
That is interesting... looks like the last two years have formed doji's which signifies indecision.

The year 2000, also looks like a hammer.
  • #8,875
  • Jan 4, 2010 8:48am Jan 4, 2010 8:48am
Quoting albertsy2
Hi Strat, on your worker chart (daily), how many candles do you have to show the swings (where you put S&R lines)? The reason I ask is because when I zoom out far enough on the daily, the swings I see in the window start to look like the swings I see on the weekly not zoomed out.

Right now my daily TF window shows Sept 2009 on the left edge, that's 4 months worth of data.
how many candles do you have to show the swings (where you put S&R lines)?

The number of candles is not the criteria - it is what PRICE does at certain PRICE levels.

when I zoom out far enough on the daily, the swings I see in the window start to look like the swings I see on the weekly not zoomed out.

This is why we always need to see the big picture - but not so far out that you cannot distinguish and identify the PA candles.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,876
  • Jan 4, 2010 9:08am Jan 4, 2010 9:08am
Quoting pipfx
That is interesting... looks like the last two years have formed doji's which signifies indecision.

The year 2000, also looks like a hammer.
That is interesting... looks like the last two years have formed doji's which signifies indecision.

The year 2000, also looks like a hammer.

Yes, spinning top dojis.

As well as indecision they are also a PAUSE.

The year 2000 was definitely a Hammer – look how it CONTROLLED 2001 leaving it as an IB. Then look what happened after it lost its control.

Look carefully at the trap which was laid in 2004 & 2005. A “hanging man” in 2004 followed by a BEEB in 2005.

2006 was another IB

The years 2005 and 2006 are what I call my “wobble” in an Impulse Wave.

So, 2009 is another IB.

Remember that the HIGHER the time frame you go, the more POWERFUL the candles are and the less they need to be of “perfect, classical proportions”.

If it wasn’t for the SL and therefore RISK, trading this would be as easy as stealing candy from a baby!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,877
  • Jan 4, 2010 9:27am Jan 4, 2010 9:27am
Quoting Money Magnet
Hello Larry
I am new to this thread and after finishing J16 am now working my way from both ends.
My comments may not be valid as far as the overall method of this system but I think they may help.
Regardless of various bars and the trend for me a few things are critical.

1. the long term long trend from March 2009, was broken late November and continued to remain that way through early December.
2. As with most typical trendline break the price will retest the trend line before continuing the new direction. This is currently under way, so far...
The long term long trend from March 2009, was broken late November and continued to remain that way through early December.

You obviously have not looked at the BOSS!

As with most typical trendline break the price will retest the trend line before continuing the new direction.

Where is this rule written? How I wish it was so!

PRICE “sometimes, but not always” will re-test TLs, DSRIs, Fibs, MAs etc., but when they do…………………………

the move down from the 3rd of December to 23 December is not a higher low.

Wow, you’re good!

Would I take this trade, that would depend on my money management and the risk versus reward.

This would be a HIGH RISK counter trend Worker trade definitely not for those on The Path.

As I see the upside to the .91 /.9150

Correct – at the Root TL

I would have a tight stop.

And a lot of stress and visits from the demons, gremlins, little man in your head and the man in the mirror!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,878
  • Jan 4, 2010 9:59am Jan 4, 2010 9:59am
What does 2010 have in store for the $US?
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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,879
  • Jan 4, 2010 10:26am Jan 4, 2010 10:26am
I enjoyed the EURUSD Yearly so much that I have done the same for USDCHF
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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,880
  • Jan 4, 2010 10:43am Jan 4, 2010 10:43am
10 years of USDJPY
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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
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