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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #4,901
  • Jan 3, 2010 12:32pm Jan 3, 2010 12:32pm
[quote=ThomKnight;3335851 I only trade GY and supplement with EU now and again. So I know where they are going, but perhaps for excercise we could do others.

TK.[/quote]


There are no guarantees in the mkt

Good Trading
  • #4,902
  • Jan 3, 2010 2:39pm Jan 3, 2010 2:39pm
Quoting trader365
There are no guarantees in the mkt

Good Trading
G'day,

I agree to disagree with you. My experience has shown me differently as no doubt yours has as well. On a non combatitive level... I very much enjoy other perspectives as I believe perception is ( your/my own) reality.

I have been in the random camp , but my experiences have shown me that was not the case. You can and will make many zeros in the random camp so i suppose it is a moot point. It is all about what works for you.

Just tossing this hat into the ring... imagine none of the charts i post... wait take this bloke out of it...since ego is as fetching as a slapped nancy, imagine... someone posts charts that never fail...

One of the basic creeds of any trading(life) is be fluid... so perhaps be fluid in your ideas as well. On a thought level... I always "know" what is :right:.., but I am always open to new information that may change my view. The flip side of that shekel is if it isnt broke don't fix it.

I am a git about conventional trading wisdom these days. My question to you is this... what if you found Skunny is right? I personally railed against this concept for a great long while , but realized it didn't take anything from trading and ...potentially... only allowed me to grow.

So In a bizarre universe what would it mean to you if you had proof and found skunny was right?

TK
  • #4,903
  • Jan 3, 2010 2:41pm Jan 3, 2010 2:41pm
Quoting albertsy2
Does anyone use this on a daily TF? I am not sure if the parameters are correct for daily.
Chuckle. yes it works on ticks as well as yearly. It is market structure. I trade daily often.

TK
  • #4,904
  • Jan 3, 2010 2:51pm Jan 3, 2010 2:51pm
Quoting FX Compass
Hi Tom,

You may have mentioned earlier, but can you describe how you set up for a typical trade ?
Mate, I am not sure that i understand this question so as to properly answer it?

I suppose.. I just look at the mkt and see if i find I can make sense of it. if so ... then i proceed if not I wait.

I also get long term moves on instruments and trade that as well.( in different ways)...

perhaps... this might be better.. I wait for a trade to set up? I do not map the market...you can... but what is the need... if pips are not a goal.

again... I wouldn;t really focus on what I do.. what I do is from the raw information shown here. maybe ask more specifically and this gent can answer to satisfaction?

TK
  • #4,905
  • Edited 3:31pm Jan 3, 2010 3:31pm | Edited 3:31pm
Quoting ThomKnight
Mate, I am not sure that i understand this question so as to properly answer it?...
So what is your thought process in seeing if the market sense ?
I'm just pulling fibs the way I think you do, with a good strike rate, but I know I don't see what you do. It's probably an insight that's hard to convey.
SK
  • #4,906
  • Jan 3, 2010 3:37pm Jan 3, 2010 3:37pm
I thought I would post some EU charts, along with my analysis, and see what you all think. Let me know if I'm on the right track or way off course.



Daily - Price has bounced off of the inner fib lines. The fibs are acting as resistance. We don't have a test of the 0.0 line for conformation so it is possible that price could head north but at this point it is looking bearish. An ideal set up would be a wick that pierces the 0.0 line, and then a pullback to the 61.8 line. At that point it is almost certain that the target would be hit.

4 hour - The target has already been hit twice on this particular fib. The last swing high was lower than the previous. The last swing low was lower than the previous. It appears to me the price is headed south but I don't see anything that is tradeable yet.

1 hour - It is still early in the cycle. The 61.8 and 50 lines both acted as support, but were breached. The 38.2 line acted as resistance. In order to trade this, price would have to bounce off of or pierce the 100 line, pullback to one of the inner fibs (preferably the 61.8). But at this point, it looks bearish.
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  • #4,907
  • Jan 3, 2010 3:39pm Jan 3, 2010 3:39pm
I'm starting to see this a lot.
2 fibs in opposition. Blue fib is long. Brown fib is short, but failed to reach the 138.2 ext. The blue fib is calling the shots to my way of thinking. Is this something that is part of what you look for ?

SK
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  • #4,908
  • Jan 3, 2010 4:08pm Jan 3, 2010 4:08pm
Hey mate, I'm not one of the experts here but I'll have a crack.

1. Your first chart I can't disagree with but I'm sure some gents will.
2. Your second chart looks like a flag shape forming to me lower highs and higher lows, kinda waiting for a breakout one way or the other.
3. I've pulled my fib of the last chart, 61.8 broken thru, price looks like it could be headed lower, sell at a break of the 100? This isn't to say you are wrong or I am right, just same clouds different shapes.

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A new trading year starts tomorrow anyway so it could all turn on it's arse.

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #4,909
  • Jan 3, 2010 4:11pm Jan 3, 2010 4:11pm
Quoting skong
I'm starting to see this a lot.
2 fibs in opposition. Blue fib is long. Brown fib is short, but failed to reach the 138.2 ext. The blue fib is calling the shots to my way of thinking. Is this something that is part of what you look for ?

SK
I don't think we need 2 fibs for Thom's style but your question is which fib should it be maybe?

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #4,910
  • Jan 3, 2010 4:27pm Jan 3, 2010 4:27pm
Quoting Misterdaz
I don't think we need 2 fibs for Thom's style but your question is which fib should it be maybe?

MD.
Good point, and you're making me think.
I was just wondering if it's one those situations to be aware of.

SK
  • #4,911
  • Jan 3, 2010 4:33pm Jan 3, 2010 4:33pm
Quoting ThomKnight
G'day,...
from post 4902

Hey, Not sure about most of what u just said but I will respond to what I can.

To say that you know which way the mkt is going, as if it is a certainty, is great if it works for you. But I personally feel that pumping that kind of hope into the minds of newer traders is a huge disservice. Maybe you know where the mkt is going all the time...maybe it is your money management that avails you that privilege, I'm not sure but I'm glad you are making $$. So maybe it is just my opinion that there are "no guarantees" in the mkt but I made my comment so others who read this thread might remember it & it might save them some $$ in the future.

You might have found a guarantee but most the odds and probabilities(OP) are against the majority of traders to ever "know" where the mkt is going with 100% certainty. Although this is just my opinion....probabilities are probabilities. Maybe you made the comment so others would be hopeful, I don't know.......I made my comment so others wouldn't have too much false hope, given the OP

As far as Skunny goes, I was on the other side of the conversation that was asked to train him on what I was doing in the mkt. I was making real time calls for him, for several weeks if i recall correctly. A private room was going to be setup by his Trade Fibs technician so I could educate him on the PA and mkt structure that I was using. So to me, that is the bizarre universe. Why would I be asked to train someone who is supposedly trading at 100%??

My intention is not to bash skunny or anyone else. Many of skunnys trades, according to skunny himself, had to be reversed and sometimes reversed again until he got it right. Whether it was an intra day trade or swing trade is irrelevant. The question of whether he was trading real money at all has come up often as well. I personally didn't care what he was doing for himself as long as his methods were sound.

So is it you that has the proof that what skunny was preaching, for a fee I might add, is right? What does the word "right" mean anyway? Does it mean that u can build a system based on fibs or that u can trade at 100%?

I hope you understand my thought process here and yes, I am open to ideas about trading but over the last several years I have really honed in on what makes the mkts tick and I can tell you....that it is not fibs.

Good Trading
  • #4,912
  • Jan 3, 2010 4:34pm Jan 3, 2010 4:34pm
If we are looking at Thom's stuff, generally I only see one fib on his chart. He doesn't go walking fibs backwards or forwards either as far as I can tell.

I think Skunny origionally only hinted at 2, one lower timeframe one higher, but I could be wrong.

For me I came here to get away from thousands of lines on my chart so more than 2 fibs on mine would give me fibo dyslexia! Again no one is right or wrong in their own method (when you decide on it).

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #4,913
  • Jan 3, 2010 4:49pm Jan 3, 2010 4:49pm
Quoting skong
I'm starting to see this a lot.
2 fibs in opposition. Blue fib is long. Brown fib is short, but failed to reach the 138.2 ext. The blue fib is calling the shots to my way of thinking. Is this something that is part of what you look for ?

SK
Don't take this as the holy gospel, I'm just sharing my experience (what little there is). When I'm drawing my fibs, there is a run up (or down) in price, then a retracement. The retracement is what we are concerned with, not the initial run up (or down). I use the initial run only to get me in the ballpark. In your blue fib, it looks like you are trying to match your inner fibs to the s/r lines in the initial run. I haven't had any luck doing it like that. When there is a long wick in the retracement, I try to match that with one of my inner fib lines. For the most part I ignore small retracements in the initial run. Sometimes they match up, most of the time they don't. I hope this makes sence.

If someone more experienced thinks I'm wrong, please let me know. Thanks.


Bartstop


This is the fib I have drawn.
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  • #4,914
  • Jan 3, 2010 4:58pm Jan 3, 2010 4:58pm
Quoting bartstop
Don't take this as the holy gospel, I'm just sharing my experience (what little there is). When I'm drawing my fibs, there is a run up (or down) in price, then a retracement. The retracement is what we are concerned with, not the initial run up (or down). I use the initial run only to get me in the ballpark. In your blue fib, it looks like you are trying to match your inner fibs to the s/r lines in the initial run. I haven't had any luck doing it like that. When there is a long wick in the retracement, I try to match that with one of my inner fib...
The chart looks good Barstop, will we hit the t1 I wonder.

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #4,915
  • Jan 3, 2010 5:01pm Jan 3, 2010 5:01pm
Hi,

I've been reading this thread over the break and trying vHands and fibs for the first time. I was definately not a fib believer, but thought I'd try and see.

This morning I drew a fib in the first run of E/U and WOW! it actually worked.

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I've taken a couple of small trades so far, and will keep exploring the possibilities of this.

thanks for the thread.

peter.
Holy Grail part 1. - Cut loses short.
  • #4,916
  • Jan 3, 2010 5:06pm Jan 3, 2010 5:06pm
I think you need an open mind to wade through here. I don't expect to trade 100% but I expect to be a 100% better at it.

If the fibs are pulled correctly they are certainly excellent for targets.

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #4,917
  • Jan 3, 2010 5:09pm Jan 3, 2010 5:09pm
Quoting trader365
As far as Skunny goes, I was on the other side of the conversation that was asked to train him on what I was doing in the mkt. I was making real time calls for him, for several weeks if i recall correctly. A private room was going to be setup by his Trade Fibs technician so I could educate him on the PA and mkt structure that I was using. So to me, that is the bizarre universe. Why would I be asked to train someone who is supposedly trading at 100%??

My intention is not to bash skunny or anyone else. Many of skunnys trades, according to skunny...
Maybe he wanted to trade more towards 110% Shoot for the stars ya know?

I'm still open to Thom teaching us something, but I'm not holding my breath..Thankfully I don't have to Maybe Skunny could open a private room for Thom to teach him a thing or two.
  • #4,918
  • Jan 3, 2010 5:11pm Jan 3, 2010 5:11pm
Quoting bartstop
Don't take this as the holy gospel, I'm just sharing my experience (what little there is). When I'm drawing my fibs, there is a run up (or down) in price, then a retracement. The retracement is what we are concerned with, not the initial run up (or down). I use the initial run only to get me in the ballpark. In your blue fib, it looks like you are trying to match your inner fibs to the s/r lines in the initial run. I haven't had any luck doing it like that. When there is a long wick in the retracement, I try to match that with one of my inner fib...
The retracement is what we are concerned with, not the initial run up (or down).

I hear you. I must check this out.

Thanks
SK
  • #4,919
  • Jan 3, 2010 5:13pm Jan 3, 2010 5:13pm
Quoting Scotty B

Maybe Skunny could open a private room for Thom to teach him a thing or two.
Better put down the crack pipe first

Good Trading
  • #4,920
  • Jan 3, 2010 5:26pm Jan 3, 2010 5:26pm
The whole Skunny thing is always at the back of my mind...I do have my doubts from time to time. If he was on the level you'd think he would come back and defend himself..
Keep smiling
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