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4% A Day Forever

  • #781
  • Jan 2, 2010 6:18pm Jan 2, 2010 6:18pm
Hey The Fool,

Although I haven't set my goals based off of % gains, I am looking toward ~2% per day. Good luck to you in 2010!
  • #782
  • Jan 2, 2010 6:30pm Jan 2, 2010 6:30pm
Quoting Zsx
Hey The Fool,

Although I haven't set my goals based off of % gains, I am looking toward ~2% per day. Good luck to you in 2010!

I prefer to set my goal at average pips per day over a week, my target is ~50pips per day and once acheived you just slowly scale up the lots until it's enough to live / retire off what ever is desired.

$2 per pip at 50pips per day would pay be ~£1250 GBP per month which is all I need to live off!!

( or $4 per pip for 25pips average ofcourse )


How hard is it to make 50pips daily ?? thats the question!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #783
  • Jan 2, 2010 6:34pm Jan 2, 2010 6:34pm
Different strokes for different folks, but when it's all said and done it's about the percentage increase in your account and not about the pips.

You can have a positive pip count for the month but still be losing money!
  • #784
  • Jan 2, 2010 6:58pm Jan 2, 2010 6:58pm
Quoting Rufus

I see you are from the west coast. I live in Puget Sound area. Looks like we will be trading the same time frames.

Looking forward to many pips in 2010 with you.

Rufus
Hey Rufus,

Yup - we're neighbors - I live near Gig Harbor. When I hit the big time, though, I'll probably be moving to Monaco. Good luck to you too, buddy!
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #785
  • Jan 2, 2010 7:05pm Jan 2, 2010 7:05pm
Quoting The Fool
Hey Rufus,

Yup - we're neighbors - I live near Gig Harbor. When I hit the big time, though, I'll probably be moving to Monaco. Good luck to you too, buddy!

I live 5 miles from Gig Harbor. We will compete for internet
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #786
  • Jan 2, 2010 8:31pm Jan 2, 2010 8:31pm
Quoting The Fool
Hi sinner-,

I appreciate your comments. I don't agree with you that scalping can not be profitable, though. Scalping can be done profitably even in forex, but better, as you allude, in futures, which I also trade. I am looking forward to shifting most if not all of my trading to futures as I progress......
Hey TF, thanks for your response.

Like you said, the most important aspect is psychological, this is why I recommended "Trading in The Zone", it's posted in many threads in this forum. Going back over your thread I notice many of your questions (like the one I posted) can be answered by that book. But to me (and it's mentioned in the book too) you just can't be the intuitive trader you are trying to be without having first been a mechanical trader. That sort of discipline and understanding of "the edge" is simply and non negotiably requisite.

I don't think your strategy itself is bunk, just that forex doesn't provide enough volatility for any edge based on charts to play out at that level. Take a look at the "Jankone M5" thread, when I saw thast I was almost convinced you could scalp forex (being so picky you modify the edge) but after putting it through the usual battery of tests I'm not convinced the "cost of business" which you seem so eager to pay really makes it worthwhile over any long run.

None of the successful chartist scalpers I know are trading forex. Going back on your thread and seeing encouragement/ancedotes from other scalpers, all their success stories are on instruments like ES or equities. Most of the famous ones use the order book to trade, and to me this is the only true definition of scalping. They are the scalpers taking 2 times the spread on futs and getting out. What you or I might see as a pinbar on the M1 is their whole trade from execute to exit. You can't make those sort of trades from a chart, and certainly not by paying the market spread every time. As a scalper, ECN spreads and commission per trade should be much more attractive to you. Go hit up a trading floor, tell me if any of the scalpers even have a chart up at all.They will all be peering intently at their order books as the open comes.

I don't have any assumptions really, I base everything I said in fact so if you want to disagree it'd be great for me to hear your thoughts. As for my "challenge" it wasn't directed for my benefit or anyone elses benefit "to be impressed" or whatever aside from your own. I don't benefit in any way from seeing your consistency, only you do. I hope you don't take what I said as just criticism, but constructive criticism.

The markets pay, if you don't mind I will post an example daily chart. I trade only breakouts, so the yellow boxes on price are breakout zone, arrow is confirmed position, tick is exit all positions in that direction. 3 shorts capture 80% of monthly wave down, 20 longs capture 100% of daily upwave.

Total spread cost: 10pips.
Total carry cost: 14 days short - 6 days long
Total pips cashed in: +350 pips short
Floating P/L: +168 pips long
Monthly ATR: ~600 pips.

From spending about 5 minutes a day on this pair (I trade 9 pairs). Keep in mind this was supposed to be the "low volume impossible to trade month" gee, I did better on this pair in Dec than Nov! You need % moves to put % onto your account.
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  • #787
  • Jan 2, 2010 9:21pm Jan 2, 2010 9:21pm
....you just can't be the intuitive trader you are trying to be without having first been a mechanical trader. That sort of discipline and understanding of "the edge" is simply and non negotiably requisite.

I agree - I am working on that. Practice, and, unfortunately, the experience of loss are required.

I don't think your strategy itself is bunk, just that forex doesn't provide enough volatility for any edge based on charts to play out at that level.

Are you sure this is not a subjective statement? I have scalped week-in/week-out with weekly account increase of >10% where the average winner was <3 pips...I don't try to anymote but I can reliably make money in consolidated PA with a range of ~10 pips...

None of the successful chartist scalpers I know are trading forex.

There are some here. acumen, for one - but he doesn't post much anymore. I will let others volunteer their experience if they want.

The markets pay, if you don't mind I will post an example daily chart. I trade only breakouts...

I think its likely that I will gravitate toward your way of trading as I get better about mm. I am DIBS trading in demo and will begin trading some variant of that as I can get those separate swing trading accounts funded. Even in my scalper account I am trying to let trades run - avg winner is getting larger...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #788
  • Jan 2, 2010 9:40pm Jan 2, 2010 9:40pm
Quoting The Fool
Are you sure this is not a subjective statement? I have scalped week-in/week-out with weekly account increase of >10% where the average winner was <3 pips...I don't try to anymote but I can reliably make money in consolidated PA with a range of ~10 pips...
Using 100:1 leverage, right? I hate to break it to you man, that "range of ~10 pips" is simply a function of your leverage. While over-leveraging (and yes, guess what, 100:1 is over-leveraging in most cases) may seem like the correct answer to a non-volatile instrument, I can assure you it is not. Eventually it will cut your expectancy and cut it bad, as is always the case. Were you even risking a quantified amount per trade? My guess is not. So your risk for 10% reward was literally infinity? As I quoted a trader saying, forex scalpers trading risk adjusted would get slaughtered.

I have seen acumens trades, and from my understanding he only picks certain areas that are extremely volatile (I believe the term they like to use is "sweet spot") to scalp. If you are scalping these areas on an ECN account then I have no issues, but from what I've seen so far this simply isn't the case.

I am beginning to get a bit miffed at Peter Crown for posting DIBS the way he did, I think he caused a lot of issues on this forum. From my understanding, the actual setup worth trading is more like a 1-2-breakout (expecting the 3) but by phrasing it and explaining it as he did he really obfusicated a lot of stuff that was unnecessary. Sure, the simplest 1-2 is a 2 bar IB but it can play out different to that. Sure you can grind IBs all day long but understanding what the IB represents and why you are trading it is extremely important. Breakout of the 1 wave is most certainly the best place to be in on any timeframe, but not every IB is a 1-2-3 setup.
  • #789
  • Jan 2, 2010 11:03pm Jan 2, 2010 11:03pm
Quoting sinner-
Using 100:1 leverage, right? I hate to break it to you man, that "range of ~10 pips" is simply a function of your leverage. While over-leveraging (and yes, guess what, 100:1 is over-leveraging in most cases) may seem like the correct answer to a non-volatile instrument, I can assure you it is not. Eventually it will cut your expectancy and cut it bad, as is always the case. Were you even risking a quantified amount per trade? My guess is not. So your risk for 10% reward was literally infinity? As I quoted a trader saying, forex scalpers...

I use 50:1, would probably not increase it if I could. In the past, it is true, my trade size has been all over the map and I had an undisciplined approach to risk management. Currently, though, (when scalping) I use a maximum of 0.2% of account per pip with a maximum sl of 5 pips - so a max account risk of 1% per trade. I back off of that sometimes but more and more I am patiently looking for volatile moves that offer good r:r potential and I am trying to live with a consistently increasing trade size as described above. So 20 pips/day net would yield 4% per day. As I continue scalping that is going to be the mo.

My results lately have been generally better than in the past and, insofar as I do not move sl's & do stupid other things like try to average out of losing trades to the extent of getting a margin call, lol, I am a much better trader now.

acumen used the daily pivot and other s/r levels (round numbers, 80/20) and also scheduled his trades to catch good action in the daily flux of the market, as you noticed. I don't use DP's but still look for PA reactions around S/R levels and I have set times that I am looking for PA to move for me. I am scalping in the aftermath of some news announcements.

I am always glad to hear what you have to say; I am very early into trading & so I am continuously learning about the markets. One thing I do know, though, and this is true for anyone who works for his bread, whether he's an engineer or a trader or whatever: it doesn't matter how much you know. All that matters is what you get done. If a trader wants to trade for 2-pip net winners and he can do that consistently with high leverage and controlled risk, then he can make money. I suspect that what you think you "know" about scalping is limited to what you believe you can deduce from your overall knowledge of trading & related statistics - not from any real experience.

The only thing I don't really know yet is how far the bucketshop forex broker will let a consistently winning trader go. Hope I have a chance to find out.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #790
  • Jan 2, 2010 11:55pm Jan 2, 2010 11:55pm
hahaha I love it when motherf*ckers tell me I can't win...

Inserted Video
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #791
  • Jan 2, 2010 11:59pm Jan 2, 2010 11:59pm
c'mon, somebody hit me with that expectancy bullshit again. F*ck that shit.

Inserted Video
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #792
  • Jan 3, 2010 12:42pm Jan 3, 2010 12:42pm
Quoting Rufus
Howdy The Fool

I was just reading on your profile page. "Scalping Naked" I got a good laugh out of it. I know what you mean. I have just never read those two words together. But then again I don't know how you sit at your computer. Maybe I don't want to know....... Maybe your'e Heidi Klum. Then I might want to watch you trade.

I see you are from the west coast. I live in Puget Sound area. Looks like we will be trading the same time frames.

Looking forward to many pips in 2010 with you.

Rufus
NAKED SCALPING cunjures up weird images of a red indian doing things

Good Luck the Fool!
  • #793
  • Jan 3, 2010 5:13pm Jan 3, 2010 5:13pm
Quoting The Fool
hahaha I love it when motherf*ckers tell me I can't win...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5wwItkoapuA
Hey buddy! Just keep doing your thing. You can do whatever you want as long as you stick to your plan.

Best of luck to you!

  • #794
  • Jan 3, 2010 5:21pm Jan 3, 2010 5:21pm
Quoting calderone
Hey buddy! Just keep doing your thing. You can do whatever you want as long as you stick to your plan.

Best of luck to you!


Ohhh yeah, don't get bored, don't get impatient cause when you do the Iceman will sneak up behind and shoot you out of the sky ( Topgun LOL )

But seriously, stick to your plan don't be going off looking for a new method and starting from scratch cause you'll just end up wasting 12months and back to where you are currently, trust me I know a thing or 2 about this

He says adding Gold to his trading
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #795
  • Jan 4, 2010 8:38am Jan 4, 2010 8:38am
The Fool

You had mentioned you were going to stay up last night. Were you able to catch the move?

I was counting ZZZZ's. Would have been a good night for me. But I guess a good nights sleep is good once in a while. If we lived in Hawaii we could catch stuff like this at a nice hour. Maybe I will move there for a winter home after my first million. Trade on the beach.

Heres to many pips

Rufus
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #796
  • Jan 4, 2010 12:36pm Jan 4, 2010 12:36pm
Quoting Rufus
You had mentioned you were going to stay up last night. Were you able to catch the move?

If we lived in Hawaii......
Hi Rufus,

I scalped E/U from 2300 to 0200. Was feeling pretty rusty after laying off so I was really just practicing, playing $0.10/pip, but still made about $5. Woohoo! I watched the cable news but positive cable will often show up as a euro gain, as well.... I, like you, still pretty much just trade E/U, but I am trying to branch out...

I had actually thunk about going to Hawaii for a month or more this winter - its really cheap to visit there now. But I waited too late and now I have other work lined up so I can't go. Oh well.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #797
  • Jan 4, 2010 12:46pm Jan 4, 2010 12:46pm
Quoting The Fool
Hi Rufus,

I scalped E/U from 2300 to 0200. Was feeling pretty rusty after laying off so I was really just practicing, playing $0.10/pip, but still made about $5. Woohoo! I watched the cable news but positive cable will often show up as a euro gain, as well.... I, like you, still pretty much just trade E/U, but I am trying to branch out...

I had actually thunk about going to Hawaii for a month or more this winter - its really cheap to visit there now. But I waited too late and now I have other work lined up so I can't go. Oh well.

I'm very lucky time wise in the UK I'd like to be 2 hours further east cause I'm lazy and would trade UK News 9:30am GMT at a respectible 11:30am

But it's about all that the UK's got for it sadly.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #798
  • Jan 4, 2010 1:00pm Jan 4, 2010 1:00pm
Quoting Turveyd
I'm very lucky time wise in the UK I'd like to be 2 hours further east cause I'm lazy and would trade UK News 9:30am GMT at a respectible 11:30am

But it's about all that the UK's got for it sadly.
Hey D.,

I have thought about spending some time in Europe if I keep going with this. Actually, if it turns into a career change I had thought I would do some time in Chicago, New York, & London - just to see what I could learn from the traders who are concentrated there. Definitely, though, sitting in Europe somewhere makes a big difference. You can trade the best of the European & N. American sessions & still have a normal day. I have a friend lives in Prague & he seems to have too much fun.

Anyway, time will tell - I'm not burning any bridges just yet.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #799
  • Jan 4, 2010 4:45pm Jan 4, 2010 4:45pm
Hey Fool, how did you manage to get Charlie Sheene to pose for you.......

Quoting The Fool
I use 50:1, would probably not increase it if I could. In the past, it is true, my trade size has been all over the map and I had an undisciplined approach to risk management. Currently, though, (when scalping) I use a maximum of 0.2% of account per pip with a maximum sl of 5 pips - so a max account risk of 1% per trade.
Last time you wrote this I did a little sum, and it seemed like you were into one mini-lot per $500 of account. That puts your leverage at 20:1. At the time I thought that was a bit steep - but hey if you make it work that is all that counts!

Good luck with the rest of the year
Minesweeper target: 284
  • #800
  • Jan 4, 2010 4:55pm Jan 4, 2010 4:55pm
Quoting Primate
Last time you wrote this I did a little sum, and it seemed like you were into one mini-lot per $500 of account. That puts your leverage at 20:1. At the time I thought that was a bit steep - but hey if you make it work that is all that counts!

Good luck with the rest of the year
Hi Primate,

I'm in at a standard lot per $5k, or 50:1. I have gotten quite mechanical about the 5-pip max sl with max 0.2% of account per pip. This is probably pretty aggressive trading by anybody's standards, I suppose. But one good thing about being aggressive is it forces you to be right. And it forces you out of being wrong. If that makes sense. As you say...works for me & that's all that matters.

Best of Luck to you, too.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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