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  • #8,841
  • Jan 2, 2010 11:29am Jan 2, 2010 11:29am
There are some very useful guidelines here that should be adhered to. Many of them changed the way in which I trade and form the cornerstone of my trading style. They are all relating to Price Action trading.[/quote]

Great Stuff Grim Strat your post on treating Forex Trading as a business was a timely reminder for people like me who are still struggling with the psychological demons and gremlins. In fact that is one of the things I like about this thread, is its emphasis on learning and sticking to the basics. I like the brain teasers but would agree with other posters that a follow up explanation would be good.One thing that is not clear to me is what are the different steps along the Path, I understand that learning PASR and trading between S&R using reversal candles is the first step but how and when do you progress? I like to know where I am going plus it might shake out some of the lurkers if they know this is going to be a LONG Path. I really don't see a lot of things to change , I also liked the idea of the weekly analysis of pairs but it should be restricted to no more than 5 pairs. Finally if I never trade forex again I am forever grateful to Strat and the other traders here for forcing me to take a look at the man in the mirror because that exercise has been very revealing.
  • #8,842
  • Jan 2, 2010 11:33am Jan 2, 2010 11:33am
Quote
OK. Will do but these will ALWAYS be after the fact as I REFUSE to be another signal service. We are teaching TO FISH rather than giving a fish.
I like this quote. I don't want to eat free fish. But I want to learn how to fish. Maybe someday I can catch bigger fish by myself? That will be my long term dream which is maybe after 30 years. Haha

I will share some losing trades in 2009. Then readers in the thread can learn to not make the same mistake. Maybe my mistake is really dumb. Still, this is what I can contribute for now.

Here is my biggest lost in 2009. GBP/CHF
Why I took this trade?
23rd Oct's BEOB with Resistance at 1.6877. It was an immediate downtrend on daily chart.
Sell limit order was triggered and took 3 days to hit SL at around 400pips.

Here is my thoughts:
1. Did I took the trade at congested area?
2. Was is because it showed Double bottom on weekly chart?

Thank you.

ps: I have not finish reading the thread. I also don't want to be free loader.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpchf daily.GIF Size: 30 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpchf weekly.gif Size: 15 KB
  • #8,843
  • Jan 2, 2010 2:31pm Jan 2, 2010 2:31pm
Quoting SlowLearner
...
Sell limit order was triggered and took 3 days to hit SL at around 400pips.
...
Hello SlowLearner (sometimes taking things slowly is the best way to go - trading included), the thing that jumped at me was that the correction against the daily trend could not be over by 23rd, it looks impulsive to me and is already the largest correction of the 2009.08.05 to 2009.10.13 leg down. Meaning some more bullish momentum could show, which it did.

Easy to analyze after the fact but that's how I see it now.

Cheers.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #8,844
  • Jan 2, 2010 6:12pm Jan 2, 2010 6:12pm
Quoting SlowLearner
I like this quote. I don't want to eat free fish. But I want to learn how to fish. Maybe someday I can catch bigger fish by myself? That will be my long term dream which is maybe after 30 years. Haha

I will share some losing trades in 2009. Then readers in the thread can learn to not make the same mistake. Maybe my mistake is really dumb. Still, this is what I can contribute for now.

Here is my biggest lost in 2009. GBP/CHF
Why I took this trade?
23rd Oct's BEOB with Resistance at 1.6877. It was an immediate downtrend on daily chart....
Here is my biggest lost in 2009. GBP/CHF
Why I took this trade?
23rd Oct's BEOB with Resistance at 1.6877. It was an immediate downtrend on daily chart.
Sell limit order was triggered and took 3 days to hit SL at around 400pips.

Here is my thoughts:
1. Did I took the trade at congested area?
2. Was it because it showed Double bottom on weekly chart?

Thank you.

If you haven’t finished reading the thread, why are you trading?

Do you understand PASR?

Can you see PASR trades on any chart you look at? If you cannot, you are NOT ready to trade PASR.

Why are you trading GBPCHF? GBPCHF is notorious for volatility and therefore long bars and long wicks and tails.

As a Novice, are you sufficiently skilled to trade off set up bars of 400+ pips?

This is a HUGE RISK – did you know this RISK before putting on the trade?

Was this risk within 2% of your account?

Did you have a PLAN? What was your PLAN?

Now let’s look at the technicals

1.6350 was PROVEN support on the Worker meaning that you were selling direct into proven Worker support.

There was also major support below that at 1.6250 which is missing off your chart.

The hammer (circled) on Sep 27 and where it closed (1.6400) should have alerted you to a PRICE where BUYERS are in control.

The 410 pip green candle on Oct 15 was a sign that BUYERS were firmly in control and you should have been suspicious of it being an Impulse Wave in a new UP trend.

As it turns out, this was wave 1 of a full 5 wave move starting on Oct 13 and ending on Nov 17 – I have drawn in the 5 waves for you to see (easy after the fact).

This full 5 wave move “could” now be Wave 1 of a higher Wave if Elliott Wave theory holds true. What is following “could” be a complex higher wave 2.

EW is great when it works and VERY costly when it doesn’t so unless it is obvious and staring you in the face, ALWAYS concentrate on PASR.

So in summary, there were two supports you had not identified, a Hammer telling you where control by the buyers was and a 410 pip candle telling you how strong the BUYERS were.

Based on this, you should NOT be trading (unless you want to lose all your account) and do NOT know PASR.

You MUST go back to the beginning of The Path of Learning and STUDY and UNDERSTAND PASR until you can see PASR trades on every chart you look at.

When you UNDERSTAND PASR, build your confidence on “well behaved” pairs such as EURUSD and USDJPY and keep off those pairs with wild volatility (long wicks and tails).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpchf daily.GIF Size: 32 KB
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,845
  • Jan 2, 2010 6:30pm Jan 2, 2010 6:30pm
Quoting jacanpipster
There are some very useful guidelines here that should be adhered to. Many of them changed the way in which I trade and form the cornerstone of my trading style. They are all relating to Price Action trading.
Great Stuff Grim Strat your post on treating Forex Trading as a business was a timely reminder for people like me who are still struggling with the psychological demons and gremlins. In fact that is one of the things I like about this thread, is its emphasis on learning and sticking to the basics. I like the brain teasers but would agree with other posters that a follow up explanation would be good.One thing that is not clear to me is what are the different steps along the Path, I understand that learning PASR and trading between S&R using reversal candles is the first step but how and when do you progress? I like to know where I am going plus it might shake out some of the lurkers if they know this is going to be a LONG Path. I really don't see a lot of things to change , I also liked the idea of the weekly analysis of pairs but it should be restricted to no more than 5 pairs. Finally if I never trade forex again I am forever grateful to Strat and the other traders here for forcing me to take a look at the man in the mirror because that exercise has been very revealing.[/quote]

Great Stuff Strat your post on treating Forex Trading as a business was a timely reminder for people like me who are still struggling with the psychological demons and gremlins.

If only more would be traders would take the 95% that does the damage seriously.

Treating trading as a BUSINESS is one step and trading with a PLAN is another step.

In fact that is one of the things I like about this thread, is its emphasis on learning and sticking to the basics. I like the brain teasers but would agree with other posters that a follow up explanation would be good.

Promise to do this in future – if not done, remind me.

One thing that is not clear to me is what are the different steps along the Path, I understand that learning PASR and trading between S&R using reversal candles is the first step but how and when do you progress? I like to know where I am going plus it might shake out some of the lurkers if they know this is going to be a LONG Path.

It is a SIMPLE Path where the biggest components are TIME (Patience) and CONSISTENCY (Discipline).

My next development will address your concerns – see previous post on levels of students.

I really don't see a lot of things to change , I also liked the idea of the weekly analysis of pairs but it should be restricted to no more than 5 pairs. Finally if I never trade forex again I am forever grateful to Strat and the other traders here for forcing me to take a look at the man in the mirror because that exercise has been very revealing.

To some, it's the man in the mirror, for others it's the little man in their head and yet for others it's the demons and gremlins and still yet for others (sometimes me), its all the rotten lot of them.

Whoever you identify with is the one who CONTROLS you if YOU give him (them) that FREEDOM.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,846
  • Jan 2, 2010 8:10pm Jan 2, 2010 8:10pm
Quoting SlowLearner

Here is my biggest lost in 2009. GBP/CHF
Why I took this trade?
You took it because you didn't look at the bigger picture (or wrongly analysed). If you had checked Oct. 21st bar and compared it with Sep. 30th bar, you would have got the first warning re. trend change and passed this trade.

Before starting to read bars, you should know how to determine the trend.
  • #8,847
  • Jan 2, 2010 11:42pm Jan 2, 2010 11:42pm
Quoting strat
If you haven’t finished reading the thread, why are you trading?
Thank you thank you for the advice. Now I know where was my mistake.

If you haven’t finished reading the thread, why are you trading?

I was trading demo account. Thought I can learn from mistake without paying for my mistake first? Now I think luckily I'm still on demo.

Do you understand PASR?

I thought I understand PASR. I can see that I missed out the SR and also not understanding PA that much.

Can you see PASR trades on any chart you look at? If you cannot, you are NOT ready to trade PASR.

After this 400 pips lost, I studied PA from history of the charts and I think I can identify some of PASR trades especially if its a Hammer and Shooting Stars. As for BUOB, BEOB, BUEB and BEEB are not as easy as the pin bars. I think I will stick back to trading only selected PASR for now. And learn to identify those others PA until I become more familiar with it.

Why are you trading GBPCHF? GBPCHF is notorious for volatility and therefore long bars and long wicks and tails.
Oh my god, I never thought of that.

As a Novice, are you sufficiently skilled to trade off set up bars of 400+ pips?
This is a HUGE RISK – did you know this RISK before putting on the trade?
That is a HUGE RISK. And it was a huge mistake to trade off 400+pips bar. I wasn't aware of that. That's why this trade was a KNOCK ON MY HEAD.
Ever since this trade, I've made a rule for my trading. One of the rule is not to trade anything more than 200pips stop loss for now.

Did you have a PLAN? What was your PLAN?
I did not have a plan before this trade. But the loss, I start to write up plan. I even prepare some checklist to make sure that I do not miss anything important. The checklist comes with Steps to do.

And thanks to your comment, now I'm taking gbpchf off until I can analyze better with better understanding of PASR.

When you UNDERSTAND PASR, build your confidence on “well behaved” pairs such as EURUSD and USDJPY and keep off those pairs with wild volatility
Totally agree!! I will do that..

So, I can't analyze the PASR properly yet. This means that its really dumb for me to trade live account. My learning plan: Learn and practice until understand PASR. Until I show improvement, until I am more confident then I can start trading live account. At least to make my demo account break even. For now, I think I need to focus on the technical side of trading.

ps: I'm feeling underqualified to contribute. Should I stop posting until I finish the whole thread?

Losing but still,
JOY
  • #8,848
  • Jan 3, 2010 12:05am Jan 3, 2010 12:05am
Quoting Blackeagle
You took it because you didn't look at the bigger picture (or wrongly analysed). If you had checked Oct. 21st bar and compared it with Sep. 30th bar, you would have got the first warning re. trend change and passed this trade.

Before starting to read bars, you should know how to determine the trend.
thanks Blackeagle! I will do that.
I think one of the toughest thing to do is determining the trend.
Let me see,
The Oct21st bar was higher than the Sept30th bar? which means a HH was formed and it can be a warning of trend changing or correction?

JOY
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #8,849
  • Jan 3, 2010 8:18am Jan 3, 2010 8:18am
Monthly.
Hammer of good support on Oct followed by two months - Nov and Dec - of shallow correction that didnt invalidate the Hammer.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad_monthly.png Size: 30 KB


Daily.
Nice range here and in Sep 29 we had a False Break down, traders that shorted the breakdown are trapped now. Will wait to enter long.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad_daily.png Size: 42 KB


Have a good 2010 everyone!
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #8,850
  • Jan 3, 2010 8:24am Jan 3, 2010 8:24am
I realise that this week may not be a good time to trade, but ignoring that, I see an opportunity to trade this pair long by placing an order at say 9020 with the stop at 8890, the plan being to take the ride up to the previous high at 9400. This level at around 9000 seems to be fairly important and worth trading a decent break of the line here. The trade would be in the direction of the trend of the Boss and BBoss.
Comments would be appreciated regarding the appropriateness of the analysis and ignoring the possible unsuitable time to trade.

Larry
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #8,851
  • Jan 3, 2010 8:34am Jan 3, 2010 8:34am
Quoting soso
Monthly.
Hammer of good support on Oct followed by two months - Nov and Dec - of shallow correction that didnt invalidate the Hammer.

Attachment

Daily.
Nice range here and in Sep 29 we had a False Break down, traders that shorted the breakdown are trapped now. Will wait to enter long.

Attachment

Have a good 2010 everyone!
Hi SOSO
My only problem with going long would be it appears to be against the trend, so I would have to wait for it to reach the upper part of the range to trade it short if I got decent PA

good luck in 2010

Larry
  • #8,852
  • Edited 9:26am Jan 3, 2010 9:20am | Edited 9:26am
Quoting LarryK
I realise that this week may not be a good time to trade, but ignoring that, I see an opportunity to trade this pair long by placing an order at say 9020 with the stop at 8890, the plan being to take the ride up to the previous high at 9400. This level at around 9000 seems to be fairly important and worth trading a decent break of the line here. The trade would be in the direction of the trend of the Boss and BBoss.
Comments would be appreciated regarding the appropriateness of the analysis and ignoring the possible unsuitable time to trade....
Hi Larry,

I am curious as to what you see that tells you price has not honored the green S/R line as resistance? Broken S can become R. That is what stands out to me. Not only the green line line but the red MA is coming into play at the same time. Also the .32 fib may act as R. Please point out your edge.

Lou
  • #8,853
  • Edited 1:15pm Jan 3, 2010 9:24am | Edited 1:15pm
Quoting strat
Welcome! Another maple leaf for Nicola!

Make sure you read LarryK's post following yours on a summary of the thread.

Take a leaf (maple is OK) out of LarryK's book and READ and UNDERSTAND just as he did. This is your foundation that you need before you can start building
I've been wading through the thread, tons of great posts. I'm not a great reader so progress is slow. Was setting up charts for PASR and stumbled onto nice HS pattern on EUOz daily near recorded lows. Thought I would post it for anyone of interest. I have never traded this pair. Thanx for all the great info here!!
  • #8,854
  • Jan 3, 2010 9:41am Jan 3, 2010 9:41am
Quoting SlowLearner
Thank you thank you for the advice. Now I know where was my mistake.

If you haven’t finished reading the thread, why are you trading?

I was trading demo account. Thought I can learn from mistake without paying for my mistake first? Now I think luckily I'm still on demo.

Do you understand PASR?

I thought I understand PASR. I can see that I missed out the SR and also not understanding PA that much....
Should I stop posting until I finish the whole thread?

As long as you are reading, UNDERSTANDING, practicing and working hard at your BUSINESS, you should continue to post.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,855
  • Jan 3, 2010 9:42am Jan 3, 2010 9:42am
Quoting gaf
Happy New Year Everyone!

Hey Strat,

I believe both of these suggestions have been mentioned however, for those interested:

I love the idea of testing our trading knowledge through examples (past or present)... "if I were to trade this chart what would I do?"...
Points noted
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,856
  • Jan 3, 2010 9:43am Jan 3, 2010 9:43am
Quoting LarryK
I realise that this week may not be a good time to trade, but ignoring that, I see an opportunity to trade this pair long by placing an order at say 9020 with the stop at 8890, the plan being to take the ride up to the previous high at 9400. This level at around 9000 seems to be fairly important and worth trading a decent break of the line here. The trade would be in the direction of the trend of the Boss and BBoss.
Comments would be appreciated regarding the appropriateness of the analysis and ignoring the possible unsuitable time to trade.

Larry...
I think I would need to see a break of the green line resistance followed by a retest as support before entry. Good Luck in your Quest Larry!!
  • #8,857
  • Jan 3, 2010 9:54am Jan 3, 2010 9:54am
Quoting soso
Monthly.
Hammer of good support on Oct followed by two months - Nov and Dec - of shallow correction that didnt invalidate the Hammer.

Attachment

Daily.
Nice range here and in Sep 29 we had a False Break down, traders that shorted the breakdown are trapped now. Will wait to enter long.

Attachment

Have a good 2010 everyone!
Will wait to enter long.

But WHERE and WHEN?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,858
  • Jan 3, 2010 9:58am Jan 3, 2010 9:58am
Quoting LarryK
I realise that this week may not be a good time to trade, but ignoring that, I see an opportunity to trade this pair long by placing an order at say 9020 with the stop at 8890, the plan being to take the ride up to the previous high at 9400. This level at around 9000 seems to be fairly important and worth trading a decent break of the line here. The trade would be in the direction of the trend of the Boss and BBoss.
Comments would be appreciated regarding the appropriateness of the analysis and ignoring the possible unsuitable time to trade.

Larry...
The trade would be in the direction of the trend of the Boss and BBoss.

Which? These two are in conflict
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,859
  • Jan 3, 2010 10:01am Jan 3, 2010 10:01am
Quoting LarryK
Hi SOSO
My only problem with going long would be it appears to be against the trend, so I would have to wait for it to reach the upper part of the range to trade it short if I got decent PA

good luck in 2010

Larry
appears to be against the trend,

The immediate trend is DEAD!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,860
  • Jan 3, 2010 10:08am Jan 3, 2010 10:08am
Quoting Gilligan
I've been wading through the thread, tons of great posts. I'm not a great reader so progress is slow. Was setting up charts for PASR and stumbled onto nice HS pattern on EUOz daily near recorded lows. Thought I would post it for anyone of interest. I have never traded this pair. Thanx for all the great info here!!
First, learn how to post charts to the thread.

Second, we do not trade H&S patterns, we are only teaching basic PASR.

Third, there is much more important information on that chart than suspect patterns.

Of what value are "recorded lows"?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
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