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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #4,801
  • Dec 31, 2009 1:40pm Dec 31, 2009 1:40pm
Quoting ThomKnight
Excellent mate! I do personally believe... that there is some unknown order... it is the only thing that fit with what I see. , but to each its own.

My thought is this... if you don't have that working hypothesis then.. this style of fibbing will never jive with a trader since. it is not his market view.

I think we can only trade based off of how we view the market to work. If it is Sr.. then that... supply and demand... then that.. etc.. et al.

Yes.. this does fly in the face of convention, but I see it work all the time so I am left...
Would you elaborate on why you would not have taken that particular trade? There was conformity and a break eventually, what makes you reject a fib?
  • #4,802
  • Dec 31, 2009 1:42pm Dec 31, 2009 1:42pm
Quoting piccolo

before somebody gets this thread live and active again, I want to remind you that Skunny is a fraud.
Were you a TF member? What was the problem?
  • #4,803
  • Dec 31, 2009 1:55pm Dec 31, 2009 1:55pm
Quoting Scotty B
Would you elaborate on why you would not have taken that particular trade? There was conformity and a break eventually, what makes you reject a fib?
Capital! Yes I can, but let me do it this way... by showing what I would have taken. If you dig there are probably many more to find. You only need one.

A big flashbulb was letting go of the classic ideal of letting winners run and RR and pip count and instead focusing on being right as opposed to being wrong in a small way a few times.. waiting to whack one big fish out of the stratosphere.

I look for observably perfect ( ie.. a lot of times if you zoom in it is ticks off here and there..I find that doesn't seem to matter) hits on fibs lines. Here are 3 fibs and why from that time frame. To address the one that used the 61.8 and then dipped below it..I find the first target will be taken..regardless. You can re fit to expedite your profit though.

also from this post... http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=4577

Our UY tgt will be taken as well. Whom else has charts?

TK
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  • #4,804
  • Dec 31, 2009 1:57pm Dec 31, 2009 1:57pm
Alright Thom,

Here you have respect of the 38, a break, THEN continued respect of this fib to the pip. This is a pretty classic alternate fib as I am personally used to drawing them. Is it valid according to your eye?
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  • #4,805
  • Dec 31, 2009 2:16pm Dec 31, 2009 2:16pm
Quoting Scotty B
Alright Thom,

Here you have respect of the 38, a break, THEN continued respect of this fib to the pip. This is a pretty classic alternate fib as I am personally used to drawing them. Is it valid according to your eye?

Well, That is not something I understand to trade... , but not inside of what I trade. I love the 50-61.8 but I personally need that before the pierce. So for me... that fib would be a tracking to go short fib and not a trading fib. Ie get a short fib set up in there for confirmation.

When price waffles around like that fib did..there is other stuff afoot and I prefere easy trades. So this is my view. I destest drawdown and retraces and avoid them whenever humanly possible.

So from that information here is how I would be trading it/looking at it. Getting in the break of the 0.

TK
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  • #4,806
  • Dec 31, 2009 2:18pm Dec 31, 2009 2:18pm
Regarding your chart here Thom..When was this fib re-activated to go to the T1? Was it at the re-break of the 0/100 after the retracement? Or was it the break of the 0/100 right after price fell below it initially?
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  • #4,807
  • Dec 31, 2009 2:27pm Dec 31, 2009 2:27pm
Quoting ThomKnight
Well, That is not something I understand to trade......
So you are looking to get respect on two or more of the inner fibs before a break? What about switching time frames? If you went down to the 15 min I'm sure you'd have multiple hits on those fibs before the break. What is the rule on switching time frames to look for conformity?
  • #4,808
  • Dec 31, 2009 2:38pm Dec 31, 2009 2:38pm
Here is another one thom.. Respect, break, target..Would you trade this? This is one that I would take if I was using fibs.

Also, you say that your capital restraints keep you out of trading certain fibs. This makes me think that you are putting your stop at the opposite 0/100. I guess in the example I gave, even a stop at the 38 would water down your trade.

Also, as you've mentioned, you sometimes put your stop at the last bounce off of an inner fib. What kind of leverage do you use in those situations? What kind of % return do you make on a trade? I always get in trouble for asking these kinds of questions, but I guess I'm not too bashful.
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  • #4,809
  • Dec 31, 2009 2:39pm Dec 31, 2009 2:39pm
Quoting Scotty B
So you are looking to get respect on two or more of the inner fibs before a break? What about switching time frames? If you went down to the 15 min I'm sure you'd have multiple hits on those fibs before the break. What is the rule on switching time frames to look for conformity?
Hrmm.. I don;t really have one. I don;t hunt to trade..if that makes sense. The fib I showed I am 100% comfotable trading on the break. I don;t need anything else.

I really just looked for the 61.8 and the 50 happened to work with it so that made me happy.

TK
  • #4,810
  • Dec 31, 2009 2:52pm Dec 31, 2009 2:52pm
Quoting ThomKnight
Hrmm.. I don;t really have one. I don;t hunt to trade..if that makes sense. The fib I showed I am 100% comfotable trading on the break. I don;t need anything else.

I really just looked for the 61.8 and the 50 happened to work with it so that made me happy.

TK
But you are the one who adjusted the fib to the 61.8.. Would you have adjusted the fib so that your 61.8 was on those earlier pullbacks as well? Are you just catching the last pullback and waiting for price to then break the lower boundary?

Also while we are on the subject..Why do you use the 50? To my knowledge the 50 has nothing to do with true fib ratios or their derivatives.
  • #4,811
  • Dec 31, 2009 2:54pm Dec 31, 2009 2:54pm
[quote=trader365;3333215]
Quoting ShahJB

In short, 100% is not impossible but it is not easy. Understanding the structures within structures is something very essential.

With all due respect...that's a recipe for disaster for 99.999% of the traders out there, especially for some of the new traders who have only been trading for 5 years or so full time. This is not a game, even though applying game theory will help tremendously with money mngt. This is about value traders taking $$ from other, less experienced traders accts and putting it in their acct....
Trader365, first of all Happy New Year. I just wanted to say I haven't ignored your posts and agree with you, value is the core of all price action. Supply and demand the basis of all trading. I see major S/R on the charts, I always watch the left hand side of a chart. I think most of the guys here share my thoughts but they like me find the fibs fascinating and in most cases successful. Why? They are not magic, naturally occuring ratios throughout our existence, our world? Sounds like cobblers to me but I'm still intrigued!

Quite often the fibs line up with key s/r areas, I know, I make sure of it before I pull the trigger. I probably don't need them but they kind of add order to my screen, a kind of blue blankie even.

In any event I cannot leave this thread until I have learnt to speak ThomKnight, it's slightly harder than Mandarin but I am a keen student.

Keep em coming Thom and Scotty.

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #4,812
  • Dec 31, 2009 3:01pm Dec 31, 2009 3:01pm
Quoting ThomKnight
I love the 50-61.8 but I personally need that before the pierce. So for me... that fib would be a tracking to go short fib and not a trading fib. Ie get a short fib set up in there for confirmation.

Keep it comming TK. This is golden, or atleast a ticket to the gold!
  • #4,813
  • Dec 31, 2009 3:19pm Dec 31, 2009 3:19pm
Look at the way price has already hit the two extensions and then continues to respect the inner fib lines. At what point do you look for a new fib to draw? Would you still be looking to go long here?
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  • #4,814
  • Dec 31, 2009 3:28pm Dec 31, 2009 3:28pm
Thom,

I beleive I have some sense of what you are doing...Here is a fib that I would call a good initial setup that ended in failure. Could you give some insight into this? Yes it did get to the T1 eventually, but price did come back to break the upper boundary.

Thanks,

Scotty B
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  • #4,815
  • Dec 31, 2009 3:50pm Dec 31, 2009 3:50pm
Quoting Scotty B
But you are the one who adjusted the fib to the 61.8.. Would you have adjusted the fib so that your 61.8 was on those earlier pullbacks as well? Are you just catching the last pullback and waiting for price to then break the lower boundary?

Also while we are on the subject..Why do you use the 50? To my knowledge the 50 has nothing to do with true fib ratios or their derivatives.
These are great questions. The answer.. yes. No trade was triggered. IN this instance though I just picked up the market where it was using your charts sr.

If I was in the market looking to use the 61.8 then yes it would have been on the current 50 before this etc... unles it makes a higher peak it will stay where it is and eventually... in that scenario.. you wil just find yourelf ong if it keeps continuing. Chuckle.

The 50? I do not know why it works. But I find it does and Skunny outlined it in the tool. So I use it often. I am sure some centre for math geniuses could figure it out, but alas I am not one of the intelligencia in that subject.

I use it for validation and certain set ups. I have not the foggiest as to how it relates to everything or why it works as it is not a fib ratio...but again it does. I do not have a good answer.

TK
  • #4,816
  • Dec 31, 2009 4:04pm Dec 31, 2009 4:04pm
Quoting ThomKnight
These are great questions. The answer.. yes. No trade was triggered. IN this instance though I just picked up the market where it was using your charts sr.

If I was in the market looking to use the 61.8 then yes it would have been on the current 50 before this etc... unles it makes a higher peak it will stay where it is and eventually... in that scenario.. you wil just find yourelf ong if it keeps continuing. Chuckle....
Thanks, thats what I figured you were doing..Also, when you say "if I was looking to use the 61.8" I beleive you are implying that you also use the 38.2 to do the same thing (which would be more conservative), I think this is what you are doing on your current GY daily chart. Is this correct?

Also, using the 38.2 instead of the 61.8 in the fib I posted as a failiure would have made the setup closer to completing, but the T1 was never hit before that volatile move up. If I understand what you are doing, the only way out of that failiure is by appealing to the fact that news caused it which is very plausible by virtue of the stop cascades that were going on at the time.
  • #4,817
  • Dec 31, 2009 4:11pm Dec 31, 2009 4:11pm
I like fibs for targets, even these fancy ones..I just wanted to say for fun that with a proper understanding of trading and it's implications, you could have comfortably dominated (high leverage over a truckload of pips) in that setup I showed as a failure. Fibbing the way we are talking about here gets you in way to late for my taste. But for each man his own I suppose.
  • #4,818
  • Dec 31, 2009 4:19pm Dec 31, 2009 4:19pm
Quoting bartstop
Look at the way price has already hit the two extensions and then continues to respect the inner fib lines. At what point do you look for a new fib to draw? Would you still be looking to go long here?
If price triggers again then yes you could go long. Unless news is coming out...
  • #4,819
  • Dec 31, 2009 4:27pm Dec 31, 2009 4:27pm
Quoting Scotty B
Thanks, thats what I figured you were doing..Also, when you say "if I was looking to use the 61.8" I beleive you are implying that you also use the 38.2 to do the same thing (which would be more conservative), I think this is what you are doing on your current GY daily chart. Is this correct?

Also, using the 38.2 instead of the 61.8 in the fib I posted as a failiure would have made the setup closer to completing, but the T1 was never hit before that volatile move up. If I understand what you are doing, the only way out of that failiure is by...
No, I do not use the 38.2 like that only the 61.8. I am unfamiiar with stop cascades. If you are asking if I trade smaller time frame near news? no. That will break small fibs.

Getting into a move too late.. does not make sense to me in this context. I get into a trade when I know I will win. I look at potential drawdown and I go from there. I am not a big fan of gambling these days.

I do not care so much for the pip count just as long as I know I will win. I work from there. I will take 4 pips on EU that are 100% over 600 speculative pips on EU.

TK

.
  • #4,820
  • Dec 31, 2009 4:54pm Dec 31, 2009 4:54pm
Quoting ThomKnight
No, I do not use the 38.2 like that only the 61.8. I am unfamiiar with stop cascades. If you are asking if I trade smaller time frame near news? no. That will break small fibs....
Thanks...Then I most likely have 3 out of the 4 methods you use in my mind. No I did not mean to ask if you trade small fibs around news.

In the same way that you say that a 'market view' determines your trading, my market view, or market understanding, determines mine. Yes, the getting in too late idea should not make sense in your market view (the context of fibs). But if you trade @ 100% then you are right, it doesn't matter how many pips you get. Winning is winning I suppose.
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