Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

I too agree with pipfx and mstandifer about the cryptic 'wink wink nudge nudge' comments...they can be counter productive.
I do like Alexandra's post above. It is thought provoking.

My reply does look at the E/U chart. I have weekly resistance at 1.4375 that price seems to be bouncing down from after passing through it and retracing last week. Also a doji forming on the Boss... indecision.

I also looked at the relationship of the Eur/Gbp on the Boss and Big Boss
verses the Gbp/Usd .. Boss and Big Boss with the thought that Downward momentum could be reestablishing itself.
This would mean Eur weakness and Usd strength on those pairs.. which would translate to a down move on the Eur/Usd.

Alexandra, you have mentioned that the USDCHF can be a leading pair for the EURUSD; when I check out recent action on the USDCHF I see the Weekly closed last week on the 20 and did not manage to take out the prior week's high; I wouldn't call it a SS candle, but it did have a nice spike high and a small body; price has already broken lower this week.

Looking at the Daily, I see two prior closes around the Weekly 20, a nice spike high yesterday and a decline today below yesterday's low.

Encouraging signs, however it is the silly season and come next week, this week's low volume action will all be last year's history.

It might be a big ask to pack up the egg nog and get it down to Sydney before midnight? It is coming up to 4.00 pm here; maybe hold it over 'til next year.

Cheers,
Mike

There are a number of things on this thread that could make life a lot easier for the those like me who are starting on this Strat's of trading system.

I must admit at the beginning as I was wading through loads of posts I thought there has to be a quicker way to get to the nub of the system.

And of course there is, you can cut the time required by more than half if you speed read the posts and discard the stupid, the irrelevant, the jokes, the queries, the thanks a lot posts etc etc.

But then I realised that I was only one of many on this thread, all with a different level of trading experience and some of whom have none!

I have spent over the past 8 years, thousands and thousands of hours trading real money on various systems and using various indicators attempting to make steady amounts of money.

So in all that time, after all that effort, what do I have to show for it?

Well actually quite a lot! I still have the same amount of money as I started out with. And I am one of the 5% of traders that are breakeven or better. 95% of you will fail and fail big time.

You might ask what I am doing here plodding through all the old posts just like a beginner.

Well I am a beginner of Strat's thread, yes it's hard work reading all the posts (even if I cheated a bit, I have a bit of seniority in my favour!).

When I look at the stuff that people post, who obviously have not made any effort at all, Strat's right to send them back to the beginning, personally I would send them off the site, but I am obviously not a nice man.

My advice is leave it the way it is, those that want help and are prepared to learn will stay the course, the rest will contribute to our profits, the advance players will find ways to skip the dross, and if they post stuff you don't understand then ask, if you still don't understand then you are not ready to learn it.

This thread is all about hard work, trading is all about hard work,
success in life is all about hard work.

Lotteries, gambling, technical indicators, trading systems, automatic trading systems, tipsters, and all the rest are for the lazy.

I am not a prodigal son of the thread, but I make my comments on this Strat request:

1) More of these posts please:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=8598
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1302

these are pearls to study.

2) I also think that we should riconsider the mstandifer proposal for the daily or weekly analysis, commented by the senior members. Maybe we can restrict this analysis to few majors. That would give a systematical approach to the applied study of the material of this thread. Something that no other thread has on ff as far as I know.

Ramon

From a purely tech view looking at the charts of EurUsd and UsdChf I see that we have had respective major TL breaks on good momentum. I would now expect an attempt by traders coming back from the Xmas break to try and reestablish the major trends. I would now expect a test of the trends extreme for both pairs with usdchf trying either a LL or HL test of the TL breakouts. There is still a chance that eurusd will try and attack the broken up trend line from underneath back at the 1.4800 area. Strong prior trends will not usually give up the ghost so readily! Depends how far you view from though.

Pull up a monthly chart of Eurusd and you'll see the major up TL was broken and tested with a LH and TL underside test. Looks like this month will close as a BEEB but there will be nothing stopping PA retracing into that BEEB before triggering? That would complete a broken TL test on the daily charts an could offer good lower risk PA to get short on in a few weeks?

I'm still dubious of usdyen as we have not had a significant TL break to the upside on the weekly or monthly charts. The worker charts look promising but when you pan out you still are confronted with a major downtrend.

Realistically the safest LONG on this would be once 102 (last high of downtrend) was taken out as you are trading counter-trend on the worker by going long. Even then I would like to see a strong close above 102 and the major down TL then a test of that break. So, it could be 3 months minimum!

A lot of what happens will be driven by funnymentals - remember we are in new ground here as the world has never seen so much QE - how the banks unwind this QE and their interest rate decisions will play a major part in the Forex markets over the next decade.

Interestingly, MoneyWeek was highlighting the top 5 areas for the next decade and they see a huge movement into FOREX by most banks, hedge funds etc as stock and bonds become dull and range bound. Major money will be played out trying to trade the interest rate decisions so we'll await Nicola and Alexandra's funneymental thesis to try and fathom it all out.

Trade what you see is key - not what you think you know

Happy New year to all!

Can anyone help me?
I can only go back to 1994 on the USD/CHF so I am in the dark.
1995 saw a low of 1.111 if that is the lowest point then I can draw my lines on the boss.
Otherwise can someone let me know the lowest point and when it was?

Many thanks

What I like:

 

1. the dedication and enthusiasm of Strat and the senior members and the determination to help us beginners to succeed if we are prepared to put in the work.
2. the insistence on FREE advice and a total rejection of scammers. In other words the thread is educational rather than commercial and therefore without self-interested bias
3. the ‘puzzles’ set by Strat and the senior members from time to time, but like some of the other feedback posters would like the solution (if there is one) after we’ve had a go at solving it, and the thinking behind the solution if the puzzle setters have time to do it.
4. at the start of the thread there used to be an 'end of the week' summary to a range of charts from Strat. This was very useful and I miss it as it taught me a lot. Has this been abandoned on principle (too much guidance)? or just through lack of time (which would be very understandable)?

What I think may be a problem:

 

1. the various levels at which posters operate, not the senior members of Strat’s team but the rest of us. I’m not sure what can be done about that actually unless posts can be classified. Would a return to Strat’s ‘Pic’ awards help this?? Not sure! [I’ve taken to skipping posts which seem to me to be making things too complicated but have begun to read the thread from the beginning again to see if some of the more complex ones make sense to me now.]
2. the thread is very long and key posts which explain the method with examples can be posted on the Index – many have. So perhaps that might be a way of sorting posts into ‘levels’. A basic category of posts on the Index, and then a more complex one etc. But all of that is work of course, and the thread is free!!!
3. I know the emphasis here is on being so familiar with PASR that it becomes second nature and can be applied to any chart, but I have found that I have been concentrating on a small range of currency pairs and have got to know them quite well – EURJPY and its ranging would be an example - and though I look through many others, it is only a few I regularly trade with real money. I notice that different posters have favourites and it is a pity that the arrangement of people posting weekly analysis of a particular chart fell apart. I thought that was very positive and I could skip pairs I wasn’t interested in (and go back to them later if I wanted).

There is nothing original in my feedback here I realise but there it is for what it is worth.

I notice Strat has gone back to his ‘Carry On Cowboy’ approach with Get out of Dodge………’ Oh well, if he can call me an ‘English Gentleman’, I can call him Sid James I suppose!

I will try and post more in 2010. I still lack a lot of confidence to expose my trades to everybody, but must try and get over that. I make such silly mistakes sometimes and don’t want everyone to see them!

All the best to everyone for 2010 and especially to all those who make this thread so constructive and helpful.

George,

Think this is the lowest its ever been.

I like the way the thread is till now, although it's growing pretty fast.

What I'd like to see more is trade management, currently most of the focus is on entry but I believe the trade management can make the difference between winning and losing.
I will start posting my views starting with the new year.

Best regards and a Happy New Year everyone!

I have finshed reading this thread, every single page and every single post.
Now you must all decide if I have understood what I have read.

PASR stands for Price Action (at) Support (and/or) Resistance.
Newbies (like me) are required to draw lines of SR on their charts in accordance with the very good guidelines provided in particular by Blackeagle. When we are satisfied with our lines of SR we should then go back in history on our daily charts taking note of PA at those lines of SR, asking ourselves what did the PA tell us in the vicinity of SR, what were the buyers and sellers doing and when and how was the battle for Price resolved. The purpose is to recognise the signals that Price gives at SR, particularly looking for a SS,Hammer,BUOB,BEOB,BUOB or BEEB, which are the candles most likely to signal a change at SR.
An important aspect of this method is the realisation that it is only at the daily level that stress free trading is possible. We call the daily chart the Worker, the weekly chart The Boss, while the monthly chart is called The Big Boss. It is from The Big Boss and the Boss that we take our direction from on the Worker, and we do not trade unless the are all in agreement.
One day we may learn how to trade against the trend but not yet!
Newbies are encouraged to only trade from SR to the next level of SR after suitable PA, in order to build confidence in our abilities to recognise correct PA.
Newbies are encouraged to comment on the posts of other members in order to assist each other to successfully recognise and trade PASR.

This is my forex trading new year resolution and task that I have set myself.

I am going back over the tread as well to see what I might have missed the first time, just to keep me busy while I wait for PASR.

Happy 2010 to all

Larry

SOSO you are right that the trade management is all important, but that is surely the part that is called the Plan, which we should have committed ourself to before entry?

That is something I should also have mentioned in my post about PASR, Plan the Trade and Trade the Plan

all the best for 2010

Larry

Congratulations LarryK on getting this far. It's become quite a marathon now and I think your summary is a pretty good one, particularly if you include the Plan - which should be written down so that it can be checked over afterwards to see why it went right, or went wrong. Anyway keeping a careful record of each trade along with a screen shot if possible has helped me a lot, particularly in preventing me taking 'spontaneous' trades just because 'it looks right'. Others on the thread have helped me with this so if you want any help with an Excel sheet just PM me and I will do my best.

I've gained so much from this thread that I ought to start giving something back.

Good luck for 2010!

Thanks George.
Thought it might be the lowest, tried various internet sites and they didn't have data far enough back.

Many thanks
John

Hello all,

Is it because the USD/JPY broke above the 92.00 resistance?

Poncho

Hi
Just a few thoughts,
I like the way the thread is except it is very lomg becoming longer every day.
I would like to see some sort of tests available self assesmemt or marked by a senior trader with a 100% or very high pass mark before you can procede to next level,where one could see how they are progressing.
The tests could consist of,PA-SR-TR-DSRI-PIN BARS -INSIDE BARS.BEEB-BEOB-ECT,ECT.
Also if each newbie could find a expierenced buddy who is allready on the PATH in the same country who could take him under his wing to guide and answer any questions as I myself find it very hard to post on the thread because of lack of experiance and confidence.

Das
newbie

Thanks Strat for this offer. I think others have already had their wise say.

I think it is inevitable that some people will come with funny systems, indics or whatever, and post them here. Ignoring them might be the easiest way, it doesn't consume precious space, time or energy.

As for myself, I think I enjoy examples and exercises on live data. Drawing attention to possible set ups opens them up for constructive discussion. Blackeagle's exercise was good, Alexandra's questions too. 'Tis a good way of getting very familiar with PASR and it's nuances. And there's always somebody that comes with something I hadn't seen even if it was in front of my nose

What has to be very clear from the beginning imho, is that if anybody takes a trade based on these discussions or exercises: IT IS COMPLETELY THEIR RESPONSABILITY. Nobody forces anybody to press the trade button! As is with any trade taken. I think there is no need to expand on this.

I would also like it if people were to mention the pair they are talking about in each post or even better post the chart. As I find myself wondering sometimes which pair they are talking about, the post referring to a past
post.

I'm going to be on and off for a few weeks as I'm travelling, but will certainly be back.


Spinner

Thanks for your post Alexandra. Am kind of intrigued what you mean by "resumption", maybe it is the main uptrend?

Anyway it made me look around and found this interesting candle in the monthly euro, which of course repeats in the usd/chf.

Cheers

Spinner

What external sources (Calendar of events, Bloomberg etc, etc) do you use and would like to see on the thread as a "one stop trading thread"?

Ahh, the old trickster is back LOL !!!

The only resource we need is our Monthly-Daily charts and maybe the FF Calendar so we don't trade into a major news event maybe?

All the other resources are just news guff - put out there to deceive and mostly once the big boys have already digested!