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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #1,521
  • Dec 30, 2009 11:33pm Dec 30, 2009 11:33pm
can u guys look at nzd/usd. i saw the set up on 1 hr chart at 1300hrs and 2200hrs +8gmt.

but do u all see any reversal or entry points from the 15m?i think there is a pullback on the 2330hrs. *for the 2200 set up.

just for practice purpose, i would like to train my eye to pick up the trades faster. =D

sorry that i cant attach any chart
  • #1,522
  • Dec 30, 2009 11:33pm Dec 30, 2009 11:33pm
anyway happy new trading year to you guys!
  • #1,523
  • Dec 31, 2009 1:49am Dec 31, 2009 1:49am
Quoting ja5on
can u guys look at nzd/usd. i saw the set up on 1 hr chart at 1300hrs and 2200hrs +8gmt.

but do u all see any reversal or entry points from the 15m?i think there is a pullback on the 2330hrs. *for the 2200 set up.

just for practice purpose, i would like to train my eye to pick up the trades faster. =D

sorry that i cant attach any chart
Hi ja5on,
I am not sure if this is what you were seeing but here is the 1 hour chart of the NZDUSD with a trendline drawn on the retracement, and the 15 minute chart shows the 1-2-3 formation roght off the conluence of S/R.

--NM
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSD1hr.png Size: 66 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSD 15min.png Size: 51 KB
  • #1,524
  • Dec 31, 2009 2:27am Dec 31, 2009 2:27am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cad.gif Size: 29 KB
This one is on demo and looks like it may turn out ok.The redline above is the 4hr SR. Adr is showing about 61 pips to the downside.We have 3 lower highs and 3 higher lows in the wedge - we broke the 500 level .So let's see if the cad will move on down. I use these fibs for some type of target .We also have an upper trendline of the 4hr chart tested so this gave me a little confidence it may go down. Tex
  • #1,525
  • Dec 31, 2009 3:14am Dec 31, 2009 3:14am
Quoting NightMoves
Hi ja5on,
I am not sure if this is what you were seeing but here is the 1 hour chart of the NZDUSD with a trendline drawn on the retracement, and the 15 minute chart shows the 1-2-3 formation roght off the conluence of S/R.

--NM
it is the red lines that i was refering too.. what do u think? abt these two set up.
Attached Image

Attached Image
  • #1,526
  • Dec 31, 2009 3:51am Dec 31, 2009 3:51am
Looks good Ja5on. You are getting at a better price for sure.1. The aggressive approach would be to place an enrty right at the top of the wedge before the break out 2. Wait for the wedge to break out with a momentum candle then wait for a down candle then go in as soon as your momentum candle is cleared a few pips. 3. Break the wedge go up and test the upper trendline of the wedge that got broken or close to the upper trendline which is a 123 or abc .Hope this helps. Tex
  • #1,527
  • Dec 31, 2009 4:10am Dec 31, 2009 4:10am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzd.gif Size: 20 KB
Hope you don't mind NM .Just showing a chart to JA on the nzd.The redline is the round number- So you would have gotten in at a better price there.The other blue arrows are other possibilities if your more aggresive. Tex
  • #1,528
  • Dec 31, 2009 7:44am Dec 31, 2009 7:44am
Quoting ja5on
it is the red lines that i was refering too.. what do u think? abt these two set up.
Attachment
Attachment
HI ja5on,
Your first 1-2-3 is correct and so is the second, I was watching that same setup and there really was not very clean signal on that pair, at the time. Sometimes in low volume like we are in now the formations just dont show up as good as they do on a normal day.

What I have been doing when the volumes get this low(even though I am not trading now) is zoom into a smaller TF yet, like the 5 minute TF and then the formations show up a little better.

Although I do not normally use a 5 min trigger TF for a 1 hr setup chart in these low volume days the formations are a little bit clearer.

--NM
  • #1,529
  • Dec 31, 2009 8:12am Dec 31, 2009 8:12am
Quoting tex123
Attachment This one is on demo and looks like it may turn out ok.The redline above is the 4hr SR. Adr is showing about 61 pips to the downside.We have 3 lower highs and 3 higher lows in the wedge - we broke the 500 level .So let's see if the cad will move on down. I use these fibs for some type of target .We also have an upper trendline of the 4hr chart tested so this gave me a little confidence it may go down. Tex
Hi tex123,
To me that trade looks a little on the risky side for my taste. I look to see an established trend in play on at least the 30 min TF that is the lowest TF I will trade.

That pair has been ranging so if you are a range tader then it might be a good setup, I do not range trade. I only trade when a pair is in a trend, it does not have to be a long term trend although that is always a plus, but to me a trend is a trend and if it is establised on the 30 min or higher TF then I will be looking to get on board.

But the reange is getting tighter so maybe it will nreal through in the coming days, there is some brush it needs to clear on the weekly chart if it does break so it will be interesting to see what it does.

--NM
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD Daily.png Size: 43 KB
  • #1,530
  • Edited 9:33am Dec 31, 2009 9:10am | Edited 9:33am
Quoting tex123
Attachment This one is on demo and looks like it may turn out ok.The redline above is the 4hr SR. Adr is showing about 61 pips to the downside.We have 3 lower highs and 3 higher lows in the wedge - we broke the 500 level .So let's see if the cad will move on down. I use these fibs for some type of target .We also have an upper trendline of the 4hr chart tested so this gave me a little confidence it may go down. Tex
Hi Tex123,

I am wondering of I am seeing your chart correctly, if your stop is placed where it is and your target is placed where I think it is, then you are risking way more than you trying to make.

Maybe I am not seeing things correctly here but if my markups are correct then the risk factor is prety high, using the method we are employing the idea is to only use the amount of risk absolutely necessary to get the job done, if the risk is higher than the what the gain would be then pass it up, there are a lot of good setups out here and you should be telling price what you want it to do and if it does not do not enter.

Only settle for the best looking setups.

--NM
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Tex target.png Size: 46 KB
  • #1,531
  • Dec 31, 2009 1:15pm Dec 31, 2009 1:15pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: c.gif Size: 29 KB
Hi NM.I guess we see things differently because of the 4hr cad is still in a downtrend till it crosses the 50 sma imo. Also the red line is a strong SR in the past.If you draw a trendline(underside) from the left of that chart you will see how price come very close back to it.So now you have a SR pivot zone and a retest of trendline plus 50% fib if you want to use it.

I do agree 30 minutes is really a better time frame and more reliable. My main strategy is playing pennants and i like to see 3 points on either side but it has to be in a trend. I have about a 70% hit rate. I will trade a 123 like the illustration above if it comes back and tests my trendlne after a wedge is formed.The Cad moved right on down to about a 1 to 1 so not bad . I want to wish everyone a happy new year and hopefully will ahve a good year next year. Tex
  • #1,532
  • Jan 1, 2010 10:51am Jan 1, 2010 10:51am
Hi Guys,
I thought I would post a another way I set targets other than just using the ADR (although I use that method a lot) here is the other way I also do it, Just thought I would post it in case anyone wants to try using this method...

--NM
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Pattern Targets.png Size: 51 KB
  • #1,533
  • Jan 1, 2010 11:22am Jan 1, 2010 11:22am
I thought I would post one more chart on the S/R levels to look for using this method the more you get in one area the better the chance of the level holding. Here is an example of a few of the elements that came together in one spot, remember we need as many to come together as possible, and you may not always get the same elements on every opportunity but again the more you get the better...one or two elements is usually not enough...

--NM
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Supportresistance levels.png Size: 97 KB
  • #1,534
  • Jan 1, 2010 11:34am Jan 1, 2010 11:34am
Quoting NightMoves
I see your AUD/JPY made the break during the London session, did you manage to get in on it?

--NM
sorry, I was not in front of my computer since the 30th of december. (Travelled with friends to eastern europe for new year's eve). I also didn't get into the aud/jpy for the same reason. But expecting some nice moves in this new decade!
  • #1,535
  • Jan 1, 2010 11:36am Jan 1, 2010 11:36am
and happy new year to everybody!!!
  • #1,536
  • Jan 1, 2010 11:38am Jan 1, 2010 11:38am
Quoting Custos
sorry, I was not in front of my computer since the 30th of december. (Travelled with friends to eastern europe for new year's eve). I also didn't get into the aud/jpy for the same reason. But expecting some nice moves in this new decade!
Nice to have you back,

It looks like there are some very good looking setups on several of the crosses. So it looks as if the New Year might get off to a good start.

--NM
  • #1,537
  • Jan 1, 2010 12:15pm Jan 1, 2010 12:15pm
Quoting NightMoves
Nice to have you back,

It looks like there are some very good looking setups on several of the crosses. So it looks as if the New Year might get off to a good start.

--NM
thanks, I just had a quick look at some pairs and think the jpy crosses have a good chance, finally gbp/jpy (one of my favorite pairs) also broke out of its range!
And your explanations for some of the concepts (especially confluences of S/R) are very good and detailed, I think that's gonna help a lot of the traders in this thread.
  • #1,538
  • Jan 1, 2010 12:37pm Jan 1, 2010 12:37pm
Quoting Custos
thanks, I just had a quick look at some pairs and think the jpy crosses have a good chance, finally gbp/jpy (one of my favorite pairs) also broke out of its range!
And your explanations for some of the concepts (especially confluences of S/R) are very good and detailed, I think that's gonna help a lot of the traders in this thread.
I hope the picture I posted helps the traders on this thread find the S/R levels easier. I think we have enough information on here as far as entries and exits but if not I can post more if needed, I created a few more screen shots and labelled them up with the different formations and what to look for as far as entry and SL placement is concerned.

--NM
  • #1,539
  • Jan 1, 2010 1:17pm Jan 1, 2010 1:17pm
Quoting NightMoves
I hope the picture I posted helps the traders on this thread find the S/R levels easier. I think we have enough information on here as far as entries and exits but if not I can post more if needed, I created a few more screen shots and labelled them up with the different formations and what to look for as far as entry and SL placement is concerned.

--NM
Yes, that's very true, the S/R levels are maybe more important than the entries per se. Also, longterm S/R levels are so important. I actually draw them on weekends, so that I never get into a troubled trade from the start. I really suggest anybody to do that, it really helps.
As for entries and exits, I guess everybody can create a mix of those. No approach is right or wrong. I sometimes just scale into a trade by first entering directly at strong confluence of S/R and "predicting" a bounce (here I am moving my stop to b/e within seconds or minutes. Then I add more on a break of a pin bar (if there is any) on the setup chart, and then I wait for the 1-2-3 to enter the rest of the trade. Just trying to split the risk a bit and get maybe a better overall entry price.
For exits, you could also scale out, by taking off a bit at the next round number, then at the last swing high/low, then extension of the last swing and then next daily or weekly S/R level. I am actually doing it like that pretty often. Just varying my percentages on each exit, depending on the potential of the trade.
  • #1,540
  • Jan 2, 2010 10:07am Jan 2, 2010 10:07am
Hi Guys,
Thought I would post my watch list at least the way it stands right now for the beginning of the week...

--NM
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1-2-2010 9-59-40 AM.png Size: 87 KB
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