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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #4,761
  • Dec 30, 2009 2:20pm Dec 30, 2009 2:20pm
Quoting FX Compass
Firstly Fib trading is aligned with support and resistance not trends.

Secondly the charts you have posted just confirm that when a certain level of retracement is reached (61.8 in this case) then it is highly probable that price will move to a projected Fib level above.
According to the charts, this has occured.
So what is your issue exactly ?

There are many Newbies that read this thread in an effort to improve their trading. Your comments are misleading and inaccurate which can lead to
confusion. Post something meaningful or don't post at...
FX,

Sure, I don't think there is any arguing that fibs are supposed to project possible support and resistance levels. But S/R and price trends are not mutually exclusive. They have everything to do with one another. Most of the fibs that I've seen fail are contrary to the overall trend.

The fibs I was calling into question were not traditional fibs. But since you're a man of probabilities what is the probability that a fib that retraces will reach some extension. What type of fib are you talking about? The fib that thom posted, which I also posted to make a point, are nonsensical. You don't need a fib to know that price pulls back as it trends, which is all you are saying.

I hope all the newbies coming to this thread read what I have to say very carefully. If they take me seriously, they won't waste all their time learning something that is mostly nonsense. Where am I misleading newbies? Away from the Fibonacci holy grail?

What have I said thats confusing? I'm asking questions that all of us have that have spent any time with fibs. As I've stated several times, fibs can be helpful at times, but there is no holy grail in them.
  • #4,762
  • Dec 30, 2009 2:22pm Dec 30, 2009 2:22pm
Also as far as 100% yes there are barriers to this! waiting and watching is one of them!

I have personally gotten to a point where I know what I am looking for. I cannot... I repeat I cannot trade every move in the market. I do, in fact, "find" fibs and then I trade those and that works for me perfectly. I need nothing more.


TK
  • #4,763
  • Dec 30, 2009 2:32pm Dec 30, 2009 2:32pm
Quoting FX Compass
Big_Pipin,

Down first, then resuming uptrend.

Start on the Monthly, Fib it.
Then move down to the weekly and have a look.
Then the daily and so on.
You should start to see the waves within the waves.
Each wave has to play out first before price will reach its destination in the bigger timeframes.
Yes, that is what i was told on BO's thread (bobokus) but I found all those fibs were more confusing because its more i have to analyize.

If price on my 4hr chart hits a daily fib, do I have to take my entries off a daily chart now?... if price hits weekly s/r do i play the weekly charts. Do I ignore the 4hr once these larger s/r points are hit?

Also I get confused on how far I should draw the fib. Should the fib be as small and as tight as possible, or can i draw the entire trend? BO taught that you adjust your fib down as price moves down so you can see what fib levels are being respected...ok so I keep getting stopped out on trades because I have to keep redrawing because the fib I first drew was invalid? So as price moved further and further down, I'd have to redraw the fibs, thinking "OK!, price will bounce here"...price breaks the last candles high, and I take the trade thinking, I got the bottom..but it was a dead cat bounce and the market heads lower....time to redraw the fibs....again..

death from a thousands cuts...thats how I feel about fibs some times.

Also whats the best way to take the entry? not having any indicators, what do i use to confirm the trade is valid?

Why cant i just trade with ONE fib on ONE time frame?
  • #4,764
  • Edited 3:40pm Dec 30, 2009 2:40pm | Edited 3:40pm
Quoting ThomKnight
Another good question!. for me I used a fibbing technique I know and right there the fib happened to line up.

My points of view I used a swing...then I saw a 50-138 and then a pierce and THEN when it retraced to the 61.8 and turned that was a final confirmation for me that this fib cycle was measured correctly.

Does that make sense? I fib about four different ways and sometimes it lines up... and sometimes it doesnt... if it doesn't I wont trade it. this lined up. I can't just trade a fib from a single swing(mechanically pulled with no thought)...
Yes Thom,

I follow your line of thought, but even some of the best looking fibs fail. I don't beleive you've come across one of these setups that hasn't failed. The very fact that these supposed patterns don't show up in all data is a huge problem. It just doesn't make sense to say that a pattern is there. Also, many times with these patterns, the T1, T2, ect. are extremely exceeded by price. If these fibs were legitimate and there was some mathematical property driving these things within a market, I might still be a believer if price consistently hit some target to the pip each and every market move, but this rarely happens. When price rarely respects it's target, I don't think you can't intelligently argue that it's moving within the 1.382 ratio at all.

In my experience, fibs have the power to stifle a trader. If a person is programed to always exit the market at the T1, they will consistently leave pips on the table, pips that they could have had if they opened up in their thinking a little. Also, by entering at the 0/100 you really hurt yourself in the long run.
  • #4,765
  • Dec 30, 2009 2:57pm Dec 30, 2009 2:57pm
Quoting ThomKnight
Sheesh finally hit its first target
2/10

TK
TK

Is this for the gy from post #4577.

SK
  • #4,766
  • Dec 30, 2009 3:11pm Dec 30, 2009 3:11pm
Quoting skong
TK

Is this for the gy from post #4577.

SK
But of course!!!

TK

I mean lets be realistic... we are long for a long time... so trading long is pretty easy pipping. Is there anything wrong with that? Methinks not.
  • #4,767
  • Edited 3:35pm Dec 30, 2009 3:34pm | Edited 3:35pm
Quoting FX Compass
Firstly Fib trading is aligned with support and resistance not trends.

Secondly the charts you have posted just confirm that when a certain level of retracement is reached (61.8 in this case) then it is highly probable that price will move to a projected Fib level above.
According to the charts, this has occured.
So what is your issue exactly ?

There are many Newbies that read this thread in an effort to improve their trading. Your comments are misleading and inaccurate which can lead to
confusion. Post something meaningful or don't post at...
Hey Compass,
What have you done with MD ? Has he gone into hiding at the conclusion of the XBoxing session ?

SK
  • #4,768
  • Dec 30, 2009 3:40pm Dec 30, 2009 3:40pm
Quoting big_pipin
Yes, that is what i was told on BO's thread (bobokus) but I found all those fibs were more confusing because its more i have to analyize.

If price on my 4hr chart hits a daily fib, do I have to take my entries off a daily chart now?... if price hits weekly s/r do i play the weekly charts. Do I ignore the 4hr once these larger s/r points are hit?

Also I get confused on how far I should draw the fib. Should the fib be as small and as tight as possible, or can i draw the entire trend? BO taught that you adjust your fib down as price moves down...

You can trade just the one Fib on one timeframe.
Just be aware of where you sit in the big picture.

I personally prefer the H1, but I always know what the Daily chart is painting as the bigger picture.

As far as entry goes, this is the million dollar question.

A handy rule to observe is watch the price reaction closely at the Fib which is your entry :

Does it pull away quickly ?
Are the candle bodies moving further away from the line each time ?
Is the line being respected from one side but not the other ?
The Entry Fib line is the line in the sand at which the Buyers
and sellers are fighting at this price, eventually someone gives
way and the price moves in that direction. The candles nearly always show you which way it is headed.
  • #4,769
  • Dec 30, 2009 3:41pm Dec 30, 2009 3:41pm
Quoting skong
Hey Compass,
What have you done with MD ? Has he gone into hiding at the conclusion of the XBoxing session ?

SK
Hi Skong,

Last I heard he was overdosing on Baileys and trying to shoot everything on the XBox with his son.
  • #4,770
  • Dec 30, 2009 3:44pm Dec 30, 2009 3:44pm
Quoting FX Compass
Hi Skong,

Last I heard he was overdosing on Baileys and trying to shoot everything on the XBox with his son.
  • #4,771
  • Dec 30, 2009 4:07pm Dec 30, 2009 4:07pm
As a silent reader of Skunny's thread the past 2 years I am glad to see that the thread has picked up. Special thanks to Thom for showing me something new, something I had not seen before. I do not know why Scotty hangs around this thread though - if I recall, he dissed Skunny's thread before because he could not "figure out" how Skunny could be so accurate. So, my question for Scotty is why not just agree to disagree with the premise of Skunny's thread and leave. Take your methods to another thread and those who want to hear more from you will be able to do so. Methinks the rest of us would like to enjoy this thread without Scotty's constant reminder that "no one can trade this 100%." Our goal here is to help each other with fibbing the way Skunny wanted and the wet blanket routine is getting old - again.
  • #4,772
  • Dec 30, 2009 4:11pm Dec 30, 2009 4:11pm
G'day

My personal opinion is that this does stand up to scrutiny as most things good should. I think that having a counterpoint is important. Scotty is asking excellent questions.

TK
  • #4,773
  • Dec 30, 2009 4:12pm Dec 30, 2009 4:12pm
Quoting FX Compass
You can trade just the one Fib on one timeframe.
Just be aware of where you sit in the big picture.

I personally prefer the H1, but I always know what the Daily chart is painting as the bigger picture.

As far as entry goes, this is the million dollar question.

A handy rule to observe is watch the price reaction closely at the Fib which is your entry :

Does it pull away quickly ?
Are the candle bodies moving further away from the line each time ?
Is the line being respected from one side but not the other ?
The Entry Fib line is the line...
where do you put your stops?

thanks
  • #4,774
  • Dec 30, 2009 4:25pm Dec 30, 2009 4:25pm
Depends on the pairs.

Obviously Yen pairs need more room to move as they can get nasty whips.

But I always make sure I have a minimum 1:2 risk reward.

I'm putting up some charts for you....
  • #4,775
  • Dec 30, 2009 4:40pm Dec 30, 2009 4:40pm
OK - Chart 1 is the current weekly of GBPUSD.

See the two tests of the 50% Fib (which has also acted as major S/R as usual). They both look the same, it doesn't show much.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu1.gif Size: 28 KB


Now move to the daily.
See how the second approach to the same line can now be seen as lower.
The Buyers are losing strength against the sellers.
The Highest probability trade is now short and the second chart clearly shows this.
It may re-test a third time (although not likely) but price is telling you that this is going to move to the downside away from the 50% Fib.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu2.gif Size: 35 KB
  • #4,776
  • Dec 30, 2009 5:00pm Dec 30, 2009 5:00pm
Quoting snaveman
As a silent reader of Skunny's thread the past 2 years I am glad to see that the thread has picked up....
Lol..I've never seen proof that Skunny is 'accurate.' I've seen some cool things done with fibs, but I've never seen anybody be consistently 100%. Thats why I've challenged Thom to getting just 10 trades right in a row. So far we are at 2.

I guess a good question to ask Thom..What is your motive man? I know skunny made everyone agree to nondisclosure. I'm sure you have some folks over at TF spitting mad. So far you have not taught anything specifically, you've shown some charts but thats it. Are you going to teach the thousands of members of FF to trade perfectly or do you just want everyone to know that you don't lose?
  • #4,777
  • Dec 30, 2009 5:12pm Dec 30, 2009 5:12pm
G'day Mate.

I just saw interest in the thread again and hoped I might be able to help someone who was interested.


TK
  • #4,778
  • Dec 30, 2009 5:15pm Dec 30, 2009 5:15pm
Quoting ThomKnight
G'day Mate.

I just saw interest in the thread again and hoped I might be able to help someone who was interested.


TK
oh alright..help us to know your criteria for drawing fibs.

Thanks in advance,

Scotty B
  • #4,779
  • Dec 30, 2009 5:16pm Dec 30, 2009 5:16pm
To keep this thread constructive, maybe Scotty should post some fibs that failed and TK can explain why he would or would not have taken the trade? We're here to share and learn right?
  • #4,780
  • Dec 30, 2009 5:20pm Dec 30, 2009 5:20pm
Quoting Scotty B
oh alright..help us to know your criteria for drawing fibs.

Thanks in advance,

Scotty B

Sure I can continue to post trades and why I took them!

Tk
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