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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #4,741
  • Dec 28, 2009 10:37pm Dec 28, 2009 10:37pm
Quoting Misterdaz
Evening all.

Compass, why did you put that fib there, just curious. I've tried walking it there using 138 completions but can't quite get there. I could draw it as below.

Attachment

This would suggest if the 61.8 holds we could be going back down. Sorry, just toying with you, can't get on Xbox at moment.

Ps. Watched some of Andre's stuff before (not Peter, the other one). Yes very good. One thing he mentions which I use, is a break of a level then a pullback to it, then enter, I like that very much.

Oooh a Baileys, thanks...
On Ey.. I would be ey'ing the north side. Taking fun little ong set ups on the way to 150.
  • #4,742
  • Dec 28, 2009 10:45pm Dec 28, 2009 10:45pm
this is what I am looking at on EY.

TK
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  • #4,743
  • Dec 29, 2009 2:15am Dec 29, 2009 2:15am
Quoting ThomKnight
this is what I am looking at on EY.

TK
G'Day!

1/10.

Why did it work? 50-138 pierces and retraces and turns on the 61.8. The was a little push of of the 100 on the way down but the heart of the matter was the aforementioned. The turn on the 61.8 lit me up and told me to trade this.

If you really want to bust my chops on how to trade it... well there are a lot of different ways...but they all start with knowing you are right otherwise... you are... drumroll... gambling.

The Two varieties of lossless trading here are take the break of the candle that showed the 61.8 respect with a stop under the 61.8 aka Maximum leverage

or

Stop at the 0. aka slow and steady

Those are my options on this... the beauty of it is there could be many more. The fib is a frame mates in which we trade in. 20 ish pips not enough for yah? Then you need to understand how this works. I would have waited 365 days for that set up and 20 ish pips... thank the creator I don't have to! , but that is the guiding principal.

Enough of my prattling. What do you gents have out there going on?

TK
coughGYcough

EDIT: I found that fib and price action confirmed it... there were many other findable fibs going on as there are most times... just if you see one that catches your fancy.
  • #4,744
  • Dec 29, 2009 2:25am Dec 29, 2009 2:25am
Quoting ThomKnight
G'Day!

1/10.

Why did it work? 50-138 pierces and retraces and turns on the 61.8. The was a little push of of the 100 on the way down but the heart of the matter was the aforementioned. The turn on the 61.8 lit me up and told me to trade this.

If you really want to bust my chops on how to trade it... well there are a lot of different ways...but they all start with knowing you are right otherwise... you are... drumroll... gambling.

The Two varieties of lossless trading here are take the break of the candle that showed the 61.8 respect with...
EU
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  • #4,745
  • Dec 29, 2009 2:36am Dec 29, 2009 2:36am
Quoting skong
EU

Whoa whoa whoa... leaning on a trendline??? Kidding. I use em too. Right beauty of a fib with a great, well thought out entry. hold on chap.. my eyes are getting misty.... chuckle.


TK
  • #4,746
  • Dec 29, 2009 2:45am Dec 29, 2009 2:45am
Quoting FX Compass
Nice trade Skong,

I have it headed for 8907.

We'll see if she has the steam to get there.
Ka Ching !!

Good call compass.
  • #4,747
  • Dec 29, 2009 11:02am Dec 29, 2009 11:02am
Quoting skong
Ka Ching !!

Good call compass.
Thanks Skong, it took a while to get there but Pips are Pips.

Lots of strange moves at the moment, I'm out until early next year.

Back to the Baileys abd XBox with Misterdaz.
  • #4,748
  • Dec 30, 2009 3:26am Dec 30, 2009 3:26am
Quoting Scotty B
Hey Shiva,

I am away from home right now so I am relying on dailyfx for charts, but I'd be careful with that short of yours. Where did you enter the market? If the last high holds momentarily and we get a pullback, I think we would see 130.60, to 130 as places of exit with less DD. The market is intentionally long though at the moment, buyers are holding their positions and the new batch of scape goats that are stuck short will move the the market further up...
ScottyB :

I just wanted to say thank you, to you and the other senior members of this thread. It is teaching me beyond words, even if...I might say... in the name of " be creative on your own and don´t search for easy solutions from us " it sometimes is a bit cryptic. Nonetheless I see that there are great traders here, and especially the aspect of looking at past price action and S/R in order to understand what is happening now is very valuable. I`ve got this LFH sim running and keep my mouth shut.
( ScottyB : when the markets are so choppy and thin as now I try out all sorts of things, including your fan. Just to see outside of the box... ).

Happy New Year and all the best !
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Be like water.
  • #4,749
  • Dec 30, 2009 9:46am Dec 30, 2009 9:46am
Sheesh finally hit its first target
2/10

TK
  • #4,750
  • Dec 30, 2009 10:23am Dec 30, 2009 10:23am
Quoting ThomKnight
Sheesh finally hit its first target
2/10

TK
Do you have magical data, or did you 'find' that fib in your brokers particular data? Do I have bad data? Why didn't I see that fib? If fibs were actually 100% then you'd need data that was error free. How do you account for this? If only your brokers data 'works,' then why? If there were really an error free pattern that price is following, which data are we to use? Do you have several trading accounts with differant feeds that you watch for 'the right setup?'

This is a good example of the fib fallacy. All you are doing is unknowingly trend trading and hiding behind fractals. Not a bad way to trade, but your fib is meaningless.
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  • #4,751
  • Dec 30, 2009 11:40am Dec 30, 2009 11:40am
Quoting Scotty B
I challenge you to get just 10 trades right in a row. All you need to do is post the direction, the stop and the target.........If you can pull it off and put your walk where your talk is, then I'll grant you some credibility. But the moment you make a bad call we can get this 100% idea to the garbage bin where it belongs.
Instead of bashing him, why don't you let the man finish his 10 trades that YOU challenged him to?

I don't understand all the anger. Let the man prove his point.
  • #4,752
  • Dec 30, 2009 11:45am Dec 30, 2009 11:45am
I was in this trade but closed it when the target was hit on the red fib. I didn't think we would see any big moves today. When I originally placed the order, I had the stop loss at 147.99. Oh well, still made some pips.
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  • #4,753
  • Dec 30, 2009 11:45am Dec 30, 2009 11:45am
Quoting Scotty B
Do you have magical data, or did you 'find' that fib in your brokers particular data? Do I have bad data? Why didn't I see that fib? If fibs were actually 100% then you'd need data that was error free. How do you account for this? If only your brokers data 'works,' then why? If there were really an error free pattern that price is following, which data are we to use? Do you have several trading accounts with differant feeds that you watch for 'the right setup?'

This is a good example of the fib fallacy. All you are doing is unknowingly...
this is a good question!

I find that data... except for news spikes is meaningless in so much as having the centralized data feed. The patterns exists where i see them .. for example.. on some feeds.. like say a 4hr.. I will see trades I don't see on other feeds.

I have found if you see it... barring wonky news spikes it works. I would agree to disagree that the fib I showed was worthless .To this codger.. it told me... that my target 100% would be hit. Thus removing my risk adversion and let me the 61.8 retrace was most likely the last stop to target.


Again this is all my opinion based on my experience so I am open to constructive debate.

TK
  • #4,754
  • Dec 30, 2009 11:49am Dec 30, 2009 11:49am
Quoting bartstop
Instead of bashing him, why don't you let the man finish his 10 trades that YOU challenged him to?

I don't understand all the anger. Let the man prove his point.

No worries mate! I enjoy healthy discussion. If I don't have an answer I will certainly be up front about it. I am always open to different points of view. His question was a valid one I wrestled with in fibs as well.


TK
  • #4,755
  • Dec 30, 2009 12:21pm Dec 30, 2009 12:21pm
good thread.

i have run the gambit of s&r to having charts that look like a jackson pollock painting. in this mess, i have looked at the issues fib levels too.

i have found that i only concider fib levels that agree with 1 hr or longer s&R levels when trading a 15 min or less t/f.

in addition, i look at a basket of currencies to confirm momentum and that the cnny is not about to hit a series if strong walls across the spectrum.

this may filter out some trades, but it also keeps you out of trouble. http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
  • #4,756
  • Dec 30, 2009 1:15pm Dec 30, 2009 1:15pm
Quoting Scotty B
This is a good example of the fib fallacy. All you are doing is unknowingly trend trading and hiding behind fractals. Not a bad way to trade, but your fib is meaningless.
Firstly Fib trading is aligned with support and resistance not trends.

Secondly the charts you have posted just confirm that when a certain level of retracement is reached (61.8 in this case) then it is highly probable that price will move to a projected Fib level above.
According to the charts, this has occured.
So what is your issue exactly ?

There are many Newbies that read this thread in an effort to improve their trading. Your comments are misleading and inaccurate which can lead to
confusion. Post something meaningful or don't post at all.
  • #4,757
  • Dec 30, 2009 1:18pm Dec 30, 2009 1:18pm
Anyone think we're going to test 4600 on EU...whats the play here? do we go long off the green fib or short the resistance fib on the way up? Dont think I'm ever going to understand this sh-t. Everyone says follow the trend...ok. Well obviosuly there's two trends going on here so either:

1. the larger trend wins and we head higher breaking 1.5 or

2. we retrace and hit this resistance and head much lower.

Three years of my life and I still cant grasp this "simple" concept............ enjoy the chart.
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  • #4,758
  • Dec 30, 2009 1:35pm Dec 30, 2009 1:35pm
Big_Pipin,

Down first, then resuming uptrend.

Start on the Monthly, Fib it.
Then move down to the weekly and have a look.
Then the daily and so on.
You should start to see the waves within the waves.
Each wave has to play out first before price will reach its destination in the bigger timeframes.
  • #4,759
  • Dec 30, 2009 1:55pm Dec 30, 2009 1:55pm
Quoting ThomKnight
this is a good question!...
Alright TK... I guess the question is why that fib on that data alone made that trade 100%? Why was that 61.8 'hit' the last stop before the target? What makes it likely? If the patterns exist where you "see them," then these fibs become entirely subjective. You openly admit that this all boils down to your opinion. I asked you privately what your criteria is for drawing a fib and you stopped responding. I don't think you have any. You mentioned once on this thread that you don't mechanically pull fibs, rather you 'find them.' I cannot beleive that these patterns you 'find' in some data and not others is really anything close to 100%. It really makes no sense at all.

On that 30 min EY trade, you are looking for a pattern in roughly 70 candles. This leaves you with 140 highs and lows to pick and choose from in a small 0-100 range of only 36 pips. When you have so many options to choose from, something will always line up.

To the guy who thinks I'm attacking Thom, please slow down on the kool aid. Or better yet, go find patterns like thom and see how long you are able to trade @ 100%.

All I want to iron out here is that trading @ 100% using fibs is never going to happen except in the past. You'll always find a 'pattern' hidden somewhere.
  • #4,760
  • Dec 30, 2009 2:00pm Dec 30, 2009 2:00pm
Quoting Scotty B
Alright TK... I guess the question is why that fib on that data alone made that trade 100%? Why was that 61.8 'hit' the last stop before the target? What makes it likely? If the patterns exist where you "see them," then these fibs become entirely subjective. You openly admit that this all boils down to your opinion. I asked you privately what your criteria is for drawing a fib and you stopped responding. I don't think you have any. You mentioned once on this thread that you don't mechanically pull fibs, rather you 'find them.' I cannot beleive...

Another good question!. for me I used a fibbing technique I know and right there the fib happened to line up.

My points of view I used a swing...then I saw a 50-138 and then a pierce and THEN when it retraced to the 61.8 and turned that was a final confirmation for me that this fib cycle was measured correctly.

Does that make sense? I fib about four different ways and sometimes it lines up... and sometimes it doesnt... if it doesn't I wont trade it. this lined up. I can't just trade a fib from a single swing(mechanically pulled with no thought) I need to see the fib respect.

Does this make sense?

TK
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