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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #4,721
  • Dec 27, 2009 10:35pm Dec 27, 2009 10:35pm
Quoting ThomKnight
Maybs... wait until those brits open up.. for me... it isn't about nabbing the 5 at 2 it is about waiting for the 10 to come to you... then you pile on the coals.

I think... people think you trade everything 100%.. and maybe.. but for me it is waiting until I see that 100% set up... I have no rush nor hurry...

To quote an american movie (brilliant) when there is doubt there is no doubt....
This one made it . No fuss.
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  • #4,722
  • Dec 27, 2009 11:47pm Dec 27, 2009 11:47pm
Quoting skong
This one made it . No fuss.
Nice trade Skong,

I have it headed for 8907.

We'll see if she has the steam to get there.
  • #4,723
  • Dec 28, 2009 12:29am Dec 28, 2009 12:29am
Quoting FX Compass
Nice trade Skong,

I have it headed for 8907.

We'll see if she has the steam to get there.
Thanks. Do you trade futures as well ?
  • #4,724
  • Dec 28, 2009 1:40am Dec 28, 2009 1:40am
No Skong - just Forex.
  • #4,725
  • Dec 28, 2009 2:01am Dec 28, 2009 2:01am
Quoting speedarad
I hope will work out for you but you're going against the short term trend and it could bounce back up anytime so be carefull.
Speedarad, thanks for the warning, yes I know I am swimming against the short term current, but I see a medium term 130.00 as a strong likelyhood. What do you think?
  • #4,726
  • Dec 28, 2009 5:32am Dec 28, 2009 5:32am
Quoting shiva
Speedarad, thanks for the warning, yes I know I am swimming against the short term current, but I see a medium term 130.00 as a strong likelyhood. What do you think?
I don't totally dismissed this possibility. It is an uptrend but it's slowing down and from the 1hr point of view some sort of retracement is due ( we didn't have any retracement on this up move yet). So may be a double top @ 132.00 and will start moving down. 130.00 could be a target but my guess is will take some time consider the holidays.
Only thing missing right now is the right price action.
  • #4,727
  • Dec 28, 2009 6:19am Dec 28, 2009 6:19am
Quoting speedarad
I don't totally dismissed this possibility. It is an uptrend but it's slowing down and from the 1hr point of view some sort of retracement is due ( we didn't have any retracement on this up move yet). So may be a double top @ 132.00 and will start moving down. 130.00 could be a target but my guess is will take some time consider the holidays.
Only thing missing right now is the right price action.
Hey guys, I have daily Fibs on EJ indicating next target is 138.2 Ext @ 137.05.

I'd be very carefull shorting this now.
  • #4,728
  • Dec 28, 2009 8:52am Dec 28, 2009 8:52am
Quoting FX Compass
Hey guys, I have daily Fibs on EJ indicating next target is 138.2 Ext @ 137.05.

I'd be very carefull shorting this now.
Do you mind posting that chart? I'm having trouble drawing that fib.
  • #4,729
  • Dec 28, 2009 12:20pm Dec 28, 2009 12:20pm
Quoting shiva
Speedarad, thanks for the warning, yes I know I am swimming against the short term current, but I see a medium term 130.00 as a strong likelyhood. What do you think?
short term current? "likelyhood"?

no offense intended mate but mehtinks if you are on a public message board asking to validate your trade... you have already lost. ... and perhaps you are becoming "pot committed" to it.

I am a tad but bullish... a tad...a little bit..a smidge. on USD short on yen. What i might do... is exit.. and then look for a trade that made sense. Even if it magically goes screaming to your target magically.You are not sure..hence you are gambling.

I know this is unsolicited advice and that is the worst kind..., but forgive me i couldn't bite my lip any longer. Please forgive my intrusion.

TK
  • #4,730
  • Dec 28, 2009 12:24pm Dec 28, 2009 12:24pm
Quoting FX Compass
Hey guys, I have daily Fibs on EJ indicating next target is 138.2 Ext @ 137.05.

I'd be very carefull shorting this now.
I would imagine you would have to be knackered to be shorting yen pairs right now..I mean.. you can... but what is the point..

Do you have the 150 one? I will trade you two 137's a gold 250 some cheap oil and UYEN 110 for a EY 150! I am keeping the gum and the Rollie Fingers card though.


TK
  • #4,731
  • Dec 28, 2009 12:43pm Dec 28, 2009 12:43pm
Quoting bartstop
Do you mind posting that chart? I'm having trouble drawing that fib.
138.2 Fib is target.

It may take a while (especially in this thin market), but I think you get the general direction as to where it is headed off the chart.
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  • #4,732
  • Dec 28, 2009 12:50pm Dec 28, 2009 12:50pm
Observe the similar set up three weeks ago on this very pair.

There are never any certainties, but it's a high probability trade with
lots of trading options in between.
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  • #4,733
  • Dec 28, 2009 1:32pm Dec 28, 2009 1:32pm
Quoting FX Compass
Observe the similar set up three weeks ago on this very pair.

There are never any certainties, but it's a high probability trade with
lots of trading options in between.
Observe the chart from three weeks ago.

How many short trades were there in the smaller waves before the larger
trend completed its journey.

Just be careful trading against the major trend with Fibs because sometimes the price will pull up short of the target (still in profit though).
Almost as if someone is in a hurry to get it where it is going.
  • #4,734
  • Dec 28, 2009 1:47pm Dec 28, 2009 1:47pm
Holy crap. This one post alone is worth its weight in gold. Thanks Skunny.


Quoting Skunny
I'm a little hesitant to start this but.......................


This is just an exercise, I am not here to teach a system. Those that want to participate should benefit. What I'm showing you is 1% of what is. This is just a simple step that I believe will help you look at the market a bit different. If you are still looking at the market like 95% of "traders".....well, you know the stats.

Open a weekly chart and blow it up (not literally). Now open your Fibonacci tools and pull a linear fib from the high and low of any candle. Make sure your...
In Charts We Trust!
  • #4,735
  • Dec 28, 2009 4:13pm Dec 28, 2009 4:13pm
Quoting FX Compass
138.2 Fib is target.

It may take a while (especially in this thin market), but I think you get the general direction as to where it is headed off the chart.
Evening all.

Compass, why did you put that fib there, just curious. I've tried walking it there using 138 completions but can't quite get there. I could draw it as below.

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This would suggest if the 61.8 holds we could be going back down. Sorry, just toying with you, can't get on Xbox at moment.

Ps. Watched some of Andre's stuff before (not Peter, the other one). Yes very good. One thing he mentions which I use, is a break of a level then a pullback to it, then enter, I like that very much.

Oooh a Baileys, thanks very much, cheers!
Keep smiling
  • #4,736
  • Edited 5:26pm Dec 28, 2009 5:11pm | Edited 5:26pm
Quoting Misterdaz
Evening all.

Compass, why did you put that fib there, just curious. I've tried walking it there using 138 completions but can't quite get there. I could draw it as below.

Attachment

This would suggest if the 61.8 holds we could be going back down. Sorry, just toying with you, can't get on Xbox at moment.

Ps. Watched some of Andre's stuff before (not Peter, the other one). Yes very good. One thing he mentions which I use, is a break of a level then a pullback to it, then enter, I like that very much.

Oooh a Baileys, thanks...

I wonder if 9am is too early for one.... naaaah.
My fingers are still numb from yesterdays XBox action.

Hi MD, Fib was pulled over last major swing in the direction of longer time frame trend (weekly and monthly).

Your Fib needs to be pulled across the downswing only (3 bars).
Fib set from high to low only.
Which would put the retracement at the 0% which was completed when
price was stopped at the 0% Fib line and sent back in the direction of the major trend.

Now it should work her way back upto where the weekly and Monthly are headed.... although verrrry slowly at this time of year.
  • #4,737
  • Dec 28, 2009 5:19pm Dec 28, 2009 5:19pm
See the stop and quick departure from 0% fib.
Lots of Support at this price.
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  • #4,738
  • Dec 28, 2009 5:30pm Dec 28, 2009 5:30pm
I just pulled a random fib to be honest to get you to explain yours and it worked! Understand your theory though. Still seeing crosshairs at moment, too much xbox. Hey! what a great idea....I'm going in...
Keep smiling
  • #4,739
  • Dec 28, 2009 6:10pm Dec 28, 2009 6:10pm
This is what I see. Don't know if it's any better. Look at where the top 161.8 lands in relation to the last swing high.
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  • #4,740
  • Dec 28, 2009 9:35pm Dec 28, 2009 9:35pm
Hey Thom, thanks for the pointers and no offense taken. However I wasn't asking for validation or anything like that, just wanted opinions

Like I mentioned in my reply to Scotty, I have the trade on before I asked anyone's opinion with a hard stop in place. Small position really would make no difference to the equity. The PA between the zone 131.80 and 131.66 has made for enough scalped pips to offset my SL in case it gets hit.

Don't bite your lips and keep "intruding", your posts are valued and informative as always

Quoting ThomKnight
short term current? "likelyhood"?

no offense intended mate but mehtinks if you are on a public message board asking to validate your trade... you have already lost. ... and perhaps you are becoming "pot committed" to it....
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