High Probability

What a relief to know what I am looking for......!!!!

I think this is the 1st time I actually know what in the Hell I'm actually looking for. Nothing vague about it.... Very clear...

I will be cataloging these set ups...
I think this is it... basically purchasing a candle. Sometimes 2. This is a little different from what I have been doing with umpteen indicators, so many that I couldn't even see the price action...It wasn't working...
So I bought a 10 pip candle... I like it.

in the demo
got in a little late
limit was set but price action missed it by 1 or 2 pips..
still 2 1/2 mins left on 15m candle.
will leave stop in place
although that long bottom wick is foreboding.
demo for education...

went ahead and closed for a few pips +
lot more to the move though

+5 pips
working on recognizing the set ups...

Jiva,

Just wanted to wish you a happy holiday season! Looking forward to bring in 2010 with a bang! Go bag them pips!

Lohad

Hello friend.the indis which u r using is 1 made by forexlion xpma and what is the other MA you are using?the cross of the MA and the xpma is looking good for a entry.

the system I am using and indis are at this thread.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...highlight=T3MA

perfect set up
trix can be helpful.
As long as I am sure to focus on the price action and not on the indi.
I am trying to think in terms of 2 candles.
To see a trade as likely if after one candle there is the possibility of the next candle going in the same direction.
In the chart, the classic trix crossing along with the xpma and 8ema all confirming the trend, the base candle appearing... good for 45 pips. 8:30 am est...
obviously more than 2 candles, exit at the 200 ema...
as long as i look to the candles themselves in relation to the 2 moving averages as primary concern, tempered by relation to support and resistance using trix as last consideration, should do okay.
Be patient wait for the right set ups...
As seen here all I need is 1 per day. so what's the hurry.
Better to learn to wait for the right entry.
that may be the most difficult thing, patience...
As long as I know what I am actually looking for I don't have to worry about being late and missing it. So I can be patient. No guess work. I know it when I see it. So why go for anything less? And bring in guess work.
More simulator practice...

waiting for break away from support and resistance.
practice practice practice
candles rule
indis offer support only...
All I need is one of these a day...

the set up is consistent.
break away from support or resistance,
a characteristic cross in trix... needs to be close to 0 line...
1st trade no trix cross, bad trade..
2nd 2 trades trix crosses... good trades...
main thing is candles, ma's, and s/r
then trix....
sometimes there are trix crosses but the price action is not there...
so first is price action, always....

same set up appearing with consistency
1st trade good,
2nd trade looked at the trix cross before the price action, the red arrow for xpma had not appeared yet, got nervous that it was improper entry got out too early. if i had not been distracted by looking at trix before price action (simply a force of bad habit) I would have gotten in at the right time, not been nervous and had some good gains...
practice practice practice...

quick drop to s3, over 100 pips in 45 mins.
caught the entry, but when things are moving so fast it is very dangerous to get a whipsaw, jumped out early, a good exit would be for the trix to change colors... or at s/r. jumped out at s1,
2nd trade was just bad.
sold the bottom,the move was all played out, silly to get in there, if I had consulted the trix I would have seen it was showing extremely oversold, hardly the cross near zero I would need to see., I saw the red arrow for xpma and jumped in, just a bad trade.
3rd trade was good, all components in agreement
exited at 200 ema/pivot..
the simulator moves very fast, so some of these rash decisions will hopefully get blocked out, real time allowing more time for consideration...

time of day for trades is very important
the first trade was London open.
perfect set up... 46 pips

the 2nd trade was Honk Kong, can be good but the action is little different. London has the big moves and sometimes US 8:30, 10 am est.
so 2nd trade was bad, small loss 3 pips... tgt was pivot, set up was there, candles, ma's, even trix, but time of day not right, no momentum..
some trades will be like that, so take the small loss and get out.
Actually I tried to get out but the simulator is awkward and by the time I got the exit to click it turned into a loss, aside from that is would have been a small gain.
So I am on the right track.

Because these trades are on the 15 min, I will have to see how to pace myself during the day. I do not have to be sitting in front of the screen every second. I can monitor for set ups periodically. Unfortunately I am at work during London open. Let me get good enough with consistency and that can change.... One step at a time. Or shall I say, one set up at a time.

This set up is consistent. There must be others that are recognizable and consistent also. practice practice practice. Pattern recognition. Scales and etudes.

1st trade was classic set up +17 pips
2nd trade was possibly a different set up, will watch for consistency,
base candle and ma's all agree, but pa is headed towards 200 ema in correction mode, both trix cross 0 together.. will watch for this pattern... +7 pips
3rd trade, classic set up was there except the proximity to r1 was a little confusing, hesitated to enter and got in too late. -10 pips
will watch for consistency for this possible 2nd set up.

6 quick scalps simulated
keeping an eye out for consistency with both trix crossing 0 as 2nd possible set up indication
keeping an eye on trading but really not too keen on jumping into any live trades until after New Years.
no data, people mostly on vacation...
light trading.
January...
just use the time to demo , sim and practice practice practice..

ugh, practice practice practice
ugh
without trix may be better. too much going on. distracting.
just the original 2 candle system.

what a day this would have been!!
will try using macd with crossing at customized settings to help identify trend changes.
just 2 candle and ma's

back to "the Dragon"
15 min chart no go.
1m..
apparently the 200 ema is the most significant marker on my template.
so I will concentrate on trading to the 200ema as a target and leaving the 200 ema as a launch... with pivot point and s/r at targets.

2 candle system is alright,
but not for my temperament.
the 1 min, fast trades are much better for my peace of mind...
believe it or not..
so reversals, and breakouts... 200 ema and pivot and s/r..
the indis are there, ALL of them... dss is very very helpful...
wasn't going to trade until January, but there is a quite a lot of movement in the mkt so have been trading.
Once I got back with "The Dragon" on the 1m looking for 200 ema etc, I started doing much better.