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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #4,681
  • Dec 24, 2009 10:23am Dec 24, 2009 10:23am
Quoting shiva
Thanks Scotty. now please beam up this one for me

What in your opinion is the most important ingredient to successful trading?

Psychology?
S/R?
Ability to read naked PA

Now a X'mas request, please don't say "It's a combination of all three"
Shiva,

Thanks for a great question. The first thing that came to my mind when I thought about how to answer you is that old story about when ancient folks who were doing rudimentary surgery didn't believe that had to wash their hands first. People were no doubt getting infections and dying because of their failiure to understand what was happening in reality. If only they had knowledge of the myriad of micro organisms that exist, just waiting for their chance to infect us. I'm sure they had their own ideas about what was going on, but they were simply ignorant when it comes down to it.

I am surprised when I read research papers in macroeconomics where I see people saying that news can move price. This is simply not true. Price can only move when traders execute market orders. Simple buys and sells are market orders as are stop orders. Market orders take liquidity out of the market and trade with limit orders. Limit orders supply liquidity to both buyers and sellers. In an uptrend, the asks (limit sells) become losers. The dealers who are the ones in most cases supplying those sell limit orders have the small safety net of the spread. In most cases they will immediately add the amount they just sold you to their bid size (the amount they are willing to buy at the bid). They do this in the hope that they can transfer the risk of their short position to you and me, this is very important to their survival. We all know how easy it is to make the mistake of selling into an upmove, or buying into a down move. The dealers love this. The point in all this is that every trade results in a loser. Either the buyer or the seller will win, not both of them. Sure, there are cases where they can, for you to figure out, but in the end, someone else will take the loss they were supposed to take. Trading is a zero sum game.

So in an uptrend, the shorts are losing. There could be no uptrend without traders selling to buyers. Here is the question you need to ponder:
What is the implication for price when people are losing? In our uptrend, what must those traders who are short and losing do to exit their positions? There is only one remedy to their malady, and the answer will set you free.

You will naturally all come up with a quick answer to this, but you really need to carry it around for a while and chew on it to realize what I'm telling you. Think about where price can go in this situation, and where it can't and why.

When we as traders start talking about psychology, PA, FIBS, S/R, we are not doing much more than those ancient surgeons because we are already two steps ahead of where we should be. We don't need to worry too much about micro organisms in our trading, but micro structure should be of utmost concern.

When you understand whats going on and you become a market mechanic, you'll start seeing all the things you mentioned in a completely new light. Your psychology will change naturally.

Okay I'll shut up now. Let the family festivities begin!

Merry Christmas to all,

Scotty B
  • #4,682
  • Edited 11:17am Dec 24, 2009 10:55am | Edited 11:17am
Quoting Misterdaz
Hey Compass, please don't tell me you sell houses!


MD.
No MD, I don't sell house. Although with the price of properties around here, I sometimes wish I did.
  • #4,683
  • Dec 24, 2009 11:13am Dec 24, 2009 11:13am
Merry Christmas everyone...its going to be an awesome new year!!!!
  • #4,684
  • Dec 24, 2009 11:16am Dec 24, 2009 11:16am
I have stated in the past that a correctly placed Fib always falls at significant Support and resistance points.
Misterdaz it sounds like the lights have gone on with you.

Whilst nothing can predict the future movements of the market with 100% accuracy, we do know that price moves from support and resistance to the next support and resistance. Hence Fib line to Fib line of a correctly plotted Fib.
Remember price movement is always both ways and trades can be profitable in either direction.
Accuracy is determined not by just hitting a predicted target, but to be able to reverse with the market and hit a target in the opposite direction.

So if Fibs are not 100% predictive, can they give an accurate indication of where price will head to next after failing to reach a target ?

If you answered No, then you need to learn how to correctly place Fibs.
If you answered Yes. Then you have a very powerfull weapon.
Not 100% accurate, but extremely accurate and certainly enough to make many pips daily.

Merry Xmas and Happy New Year.
  • #4,685
  • Dec 24, 2009 4:46pm Dec 24, 2009 4:46pm
Quoting Checkz
This other guy must have been a Student of Skunny
No, I am a friend of Dick's and actually I turned him onto this thread and I think this thread is as far as Dick took his training with Skunny. I was a member of trade fibs very briefly. The sales hook was to "stay" a member for a long time to "learn" the advanced theories skunny had to offer. I didn't hang around as me and skunny had some personal differences. I know Skunny had a lot of personal obstacles during this time from talking with some other FF members. I also found that Bobokus also worked with Skunny but doesn't anymore. Bo has a good thread here at FF too and I think he gave it up to try his own thing. Bo uses fibs but not like it is portrayed here in this thread. The 138 Ext and R levels do get respected, especially on Yen pairs, but I have come to appreciate and like the 127 and 162 levels much more. I kind of use the 138 and 127 as a "zone" to take a trade. Also the 127 is a good place to target a winner. This thread inspired lots of thought and hard work, however it is no holy grail and even skunny, though he was exalted as nearly God status warned of such nonsense. In his very first post he gave reservations of such...so two things...either he is a genius of a marketer or he was sincere about his reservations....hey, maybe both.
  • #4,686
  • Dec 24, 2009 11:03pm Dec 24, 2009 11:03pm
Yes I am sure discipline is perhaps the magic ingredient! As to FIBS, I really don't understand them lol.
Quoting Misterdaz
Shiva, I think it's psychology, more specifically, discipline. Get that right then you can manage your trading better.

I still like the fibs though, scam or no scam. Did my 3rd trade in a row today using fibs for targets and it hit and reacted at the target level, uncanny. Maybe we should start a new thread, let's call it "Realtor free trading".

MD.
  • #4,687
  • Dec 24, 2009 11:10pm Dec 24, 2009 11:10pm
Scotty, thanks for a great reply. You've probably set most of us on a new path - I certainly am. Do not wish to bother you much during the festival season, but, may I ask if you were hinting at an ability to read order-flow with out actually having access to a centralized order-book? This perhaps falls under innate ability than a cultivated skill?

One more thing you said made a strong impression on me. Perhaps market orders are what makes losers losers?

Merry Xmas and a great new year in 2010 and beyond to you and yours as well as to everyone on FF

Regards
Shiva

Quoting Scotty B
Shiva,

Thanks for a great question. The first thing that came to my mind when I thought about how to answer you is that old story about when ancient folks who were doing rudimentary surgery didn't believe that had to wash their hands first. People were no doubt getting infections and dying because of their failiure to understand what was happening in reality. If only they had knowledge of the myriad of micro organisms that exist, just waiting for their chance to infect us. I'm sure they had their own ideas about what was going on, but they were...
  • #4,688
  • Dec 25, 2009 4:02am Dec 25, 2009 4:02am
Hey ScottyB, with all due respect, correct me if I am wrong here, but was it not you that was selling an e-book on e-bay on fib trading for between $500 to $1,000??

I eagerly await your response.

Merry Christmas to all and a Happy New year!
  • #4,689
  • Edited 4:31am Dec 25, 2009 4:12am | Edited 4:31am
Quoting ThomKnight
G'day!...
Hello TK,
The more I read your posts, the larger the smile gets on my face. You are fighting an uphill battle in this thread, but I am sure you already know that. Your posts are excellent in my opinion, but then again what do I know. Not Much!!
  • #4,690
  • Dec 25, 2009 4:42am Dec 25, 2009 4:42am
Merry Christmas to you all, and a happy new year !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  • #4,691
  • Dec 25, 2009 5:05am Dec 25, 2009 5:05am
Quoting grkbear
Hey ScottyB, with all due respect, correct me if I am wrong here, but was it not you that was selling an e-book on e-bay on fib trading for between $500 to $1,000??

I eagerly await your response.

Merry Christmas to all and a Happy New year!
Hey Grkbear,

Yes, I did create a successful trading system based on a fib pattern I found early on that still works great. The folks that I've trained are all very happy and doing well. I have nothing to hide about that. I never said anything about that on FF, because when I was training other traders, commercial members were not allowed at FF.

Then the controversy..I was contacted through ebay by someone who wanted to talk about my trader training on skype. I wanted to talk on mic, but he refused. To this day I seriously wonder if it was Skunny himself. He wanted to trade information with me and I ended up finding out he was a TF member. I kindly let him know that I already knew what he knew and he assumed without ever seeing my material that I was just selling the same info that Skunny was teaching. So he got on tradefibs and spread this around..You should have seen the hate mail I was getting, mainly through my blog.

I had skunny's email and I wrote to him explaining the situation and sent him a copy of what I was teaching so he could see it for himself. I never heard back from him, and the hate-mail stopped coming shortly thereafter. The skype conversations I had with this person made TF sound like a place of festering paranoia. Obviously, the TF members were not getting anything of great value, and if what skunny was teaching got out, the cash cow would be history. This is why TF had such a strong police force.

I continued training traders for a short time, but it became too much of a time commitment. So I simply pulled back from that venture, but still maintain a relationship with my students. Many of them were business people who were interested in trading, but simply didn't have the time to commit to studying. One of them was impressed enough that he came back more than once for further training in other areas.

I've also been approached more than once by prop firms who were interested in me possibly trading for them because of the relationships I established through that time. I've politely turned all the offers down, but kept all the doors open. I wanted to make sure the foundation under my own two feet was completely solid. The ways to trade successfully are really legion, it really does not have to be as hard as we make it.

Trading came to me a few times in my life before I dived into it in quite peculiar ways. In many ways I feel it is my calling. My personal goal, in case anybody really wants to know, is to trade my own fund one day with some close friends of mine. If the Lord wills it, thats what I'll do. I have people ready to back me when I feel the time is right.

Thanks for the question Grk,

Scotty B

(please don't approach me about training, I truly don't have the time for it, I became a first time dad about 2.5 weeks ago )
  • #4,692
  • Dec 25, 2009 5:30am Dec 25, 2009 5:30am
Quoting shiva
Scotty, thanks for a great reply. You've probably set most of us on a new path - I certainly am. Do not wish to bother you much during the festival season, but, may I ask if you were hinting at an ability to read order-flow with out actually having access to a centralized order-book? This perhaps falls under innate ability than a cultivated skill?

One more thing you said made a strong impression on me. Perhaps market orders are what makes losers losers?

Merry Xmas and a great new year in 2010 and beyond to you and yours as well as to everyone...
Merry Christmas Shiva. I think we need to take everyones opinions and form our own. Anyway, I've mentioned this guy a milllion times before but worth another go. Go and look on FXstreets website for Sam Seidens webinars. He teaches pure support and resistance trading and talks a lot about Market orders. He's a member of some paid website but he doesn't try to promote it. The is no cryptic clues to his teachings, he tells you exactly how he trades.

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #4,693
  • Dec 25, 2009 5:41am Dec 25, 2009 5:41am
Quoting shiva
Scotty, thanks for a great reply. You've probably set most of us on a new path - I certainly am. Do not wish to bother you much during the festival season, but, may I ask if you were hinting at an ability to read order-flow with out actually having access to a centralized order-book? This perhaps falls under innate ability than a cultivated skill?

One more thing you said made a strong impression on me. Perhaps market orders are what makes losers losers?

Merry Xmas and a great new year in 2010 and beyond to you and yours as well as to everyone...
No, you do not need the orderbook. If you want to look at an orderbook, just look at the fx futures. Often times, futures leads spot pricing anyways. It's possible even for the futures to deviate from the spot pricing, creating an arbitrage opportunity. But if you know the ins and outs of how trading works, you don't need the book. You can see whats happening on the chart.

Yes, technically speaking, market orders create losers. This is true simply because market orders move price. When price moves people lose. Thats just part of the frame work.
  • #4,694
  • Dec 25, 2009 8:10am Dec 25, 2009 8:10am
Quoting Scotty B
Shiva,

So in an uptrend, the shorts are losing. There could be no uptrend without traders selling to buyers. Here is the question you need to ponder:
What is the implication for price when people are losing? In our uptrend, what must those traders who are short and losing do to exit their positions? There is only one remedy to their malady, and the answer will set you free.

You will naturally all come up with a quick answer to this, but you really need to carry it around for a while and chew on it to realize what I'm telling you. Think about...
Scotty. Great info in that post. Can you explain this in more detail?

Thanks.
Never too late to learn
  • #4,695
  • Dec 25, 2009 10:44am Dec 25, 2009 10:44am
Hey Daz, Merry X'mas to you too! Thanks for the heads up. I will look up this Seiden dude.
Wishing you a great new year in 200 and beyond.

Quoting Misterdaz
Merry Christmas Shiva. I think we need to take everyones opinions and form our own. Anyway, I've mentioned this guy a milllion times before but worth another go. Go and look on FXstreets website for Sam Seidens webinars. He teaches pure support and resistance trading and talks a lot about Market orders. He's a member of some paid website but he doesn't try to promote it. The is no cryptic clues to his teachings, he tells you exactly how he trades.

MD.
  • #4,696
  • Dec 25, 2009 10:55am Dec 25, 2009 10:55am
Thanks again Scotty, I will need the weekend to think about the hints you dropped, lets see what I can come up with

Merry X'mas to you.

Quoting Scotty B
No, you do not need the orderbook. If you want to look at an orderbook, just look at the fx futures. Often times, futures leads spot pricing anyways. It's possible even for the futures to deviate from the spot pricing, creating an arbitrage opportunity. But if you know the ins and outs of how trading works, you don't need the book. You can see whats happening on the chart.

Yes, technically speaking, market orders create losers. This is true simply because market orders move price. When price moves people lose. Thats just part of the frame work....
  • #4,697
  • Dec 25, 2009 11:48am Dec 25, 2009 11:48am
Scotty,

I am rather confused. In your words :

"Yes, I did create a successful trading system based on a fib pattern I found early on that still works great. The folks that I've trained are all very happy and doing well. I have nothing to hide about that. I never said anything about that on FF, because when I was training other traders, commercial members were not allowed at FF."

Then why aren't you still trading it ?
I know if most people get their hands on a system as you have described, then they would never let it go.

Secondly :

Quoting Scotty B
No, you do not need the orderbook. If you want to look at an orderbook, just look at the fx futures. Often times, futures leads spot pricing anyways. It's possible even for the futures to deviate from the spot pricing, creating an arbitrage opportunity. But if you know the ins and outs of how trading works, you don't need the book. You can see whats happening on the chart.

Yes, technically speaking, market orders create losers. This is true simply because market orders move price. When price moves people lose. Thats just part of the frame work....

In the past Futures used to give an indication as to spot price movements, but this has all changed over the past couple of years. With the rapid growth in volumes traded in spot, many now know that Futures prices are largely influenced by spot movement and not the other way around.

I have observed this in real time and would have to agree that there seems to be very little predictive influence by Futures on Spot prices any longer.

Just clearing up any possible confusion that may mislead traders.
  • #4,698
  • Dec 25, 2009 12:30pm Dec 25, 2009 12:30pm
Quoting Scotty B
Hey Grkbear,

Yes, I did create a successful trading system based on a fib pattern I found early on that still works great. The folks that I've trained are all very happy and doing well. I have nothing to hide about that. I never said anything about that on FF, because when I was training other traders, commercial members were not allowed at FF.

Then the controversy..I was contacted through ebay by someone who wanted to talk about my trader training on skype. I wanted to talk on mic, but he refused. To this day I seriously wonder if it was...

ScottyB,

Thank You for your honesty. I want to also add I am NOT looking for any training, lol. I have trading methods that are very successful and profitable as many people that know me can attest to. At the end of the day, it is the trader that makes the difference imho.

Enjoy your holidays.

Grk
  • #4,699
  • Dec 25, 2009 12:31pm Dec 25, 2009 12:31pm
Quoting Skunny
Some facts as I know them.

It is entirely possible to trade perfectly.

Indicators are fun.

There is a repeating pattern in all markets that only a few know about.

Traders are inherently happy with sub par results as long as they have great money management skills.

Too many people have been told there isn't a "Moley Quail". But yet people search for it.

You need to clear your head and start over if you aren't profitable.
I have read this thread but can't find a post that discusses "a repeating pattern in all markets that only a few know about." I know of a few repeating patterns that pay off regularly. No secrets there. Learning about another would be icing on the cake.
  • #4,700
  • Dec 25, 2009 12:45pm Dec 25, 2009 12:45pm
Quoting !!!!!!amabo
i am with scottyb on all of this, this in my opinion cannot be done at 100%.

i was a member at trade fibs---which was a joke. Hell, i was one of the people that was supposed to help "teach" the others, only problem was we were never "taught" anything.

anyway

TK,

before you pulled from the bottom why would you not have had this one on.

which failed

http://i45.tinypic.com/1z4al21.gif
If you were one of the people who were suppose to "teach" then you were in the leadership group/trainer. You mention you "were" a member meaning past tense, to my knowledge the entire leadership group/trainers are still with TF. So I have to call you out on your claim. Your either still there or you were never a "trainer/part of the leadership group. Which is it??
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