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Pair Divergence Method

  • #821
  • Edited 10:38am Dec 24, 2009 10:23am | Edited 10:38am
From the lines you drew, it's not a trade. They both made higher highs. If you look slightly more left, you will see peaks, that when connected to the right side peaks you have, the green line will form a lower high, with the red line a higher high. If the green line is your MA line, then short it. If it is the overlay, buy it (it helps to just switch to another chart with the MA/overlay switched to verify what to do).
Hindsight is 20/20
  • #822
  • Dec 24, 2009 11:11am Dec 24, 2009 11:11am
geeezz thanks I thought I got it will try again
  • #823
  • Dec 24, 2009 12:32pm Dec 24, 2009 12:32pm
I'm sorry, I take that back. The left side peaks are not in sync anywhere nearby that trade on that chart.
Hindsight is 20/20
  • #824
  • Edited Jan 5, 2010 7:57am Jan 4, 2010 12:59pm | Edited Jan 5, 2010 7:57am
Two wins and one in-progress so far this year!

I haven't finished testing the rest of December '09. I think I will rule out trades from Dec 24-Jan 1.

edit: the in-progress was stopped out.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_sell_201001041700.gif Size: 21 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf_sell_201001041415.gif Size: 22 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_buy_201001040900.gif Size: 22 KB
Hindsight is 20/20
  • #825
  • Jan 4, 2010 2:23pm Jan 4, 2010 2:23pm
U/C made new high E/U didn't
sell U/C

Did I get it this time
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: untitled.GIF Size: 49 KB
  • #826
  • Jan 4, 2010 2:36pm Jan 4, 2010 2:36pm
Quoting cosgrove
Two wins and one in-progress so far this year!

I haven't finished testing the rest of December '09. I think I will rule out trades from Dec 24-Jan 1.

Just checking

Chart 1Sell E/U

Chart 2 Sell E/C

Chart 3 Buy E/U
  • #827
  • Jan 5, 2010 8:01am Jan 5, 2010 8:01am
Quoting dryclean
U/C made new high E/U didn't
sell U/C

Did I get it this time
You read the chart correctly, but made the wrong call. You should have sold E/U according to this strategy. Just remember: "Buy strength, sell weakness."

Strength = making a higher low than the other pair
Weakness = making a lower high than the other pair
Hindsight is 20/20
  • #828
  • Jan 5, 2010 8:04am Jan 5, 2010 8:04am
Quoting dryclean
Just checking

Chart 1Sell E/U

Chart 2 Sell E/C

Chart 3 Buy E/U
If you meant Sell U/C instead of E/C, you are correct!
Hindsight is 20/20
  • #829
  • Edited 12:08pm Jan 5, 2010 8:09am | Edited 12:08pm
U/C Buy on the 1h in progress

edit: winner
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf_buy_201001051400.gif Size: 22 KB
Hindsight is 20/20
  • #830
  • Jan 6, 2010 7:31am Jan 6, 2010 7:31am
U/C 30m sell win by a pip or so:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf_sell_201001061330.gif Size: 23 KB
Hindsight is 20/20
  • #831
  • Jan 6, 2010 8:50am Jan 6, 2010 8:50am
Cosgrove
Are you trading live
and also what has been your experience as in % of winning trades and for what period of time. I just got done reading Dreamliners thread
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=160912

I think BILLBSS maybe started this thread from idea's from that one

I'm slowing getting it with your help which I appreciate
  • #832
  • Jan 6, 2010 8:56am Jan 6, 2010 8:56am
Quoting dryclean
Cosgrove
Are you trading live
and also what has been your experience as in % of winning trades and for what period of time. I just got done reading Dreamliners thread
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=160912

I think BILLBSS maybe started this thread from idea's from that one

I'm slowing getting it with your help which I appreciate
Really?
How did I manage that?
I started this thread the day before he started his.
Not to mention the two methods aren't even similar.
  • #833
  • Jan 6, 2010 9:06am Jan 6, 2010 9:06am
So sorry!
He started the day after you!

The simularity I see is in identifying divergence and the corralation of pairs
I know there is no hedging here and I know that style will get you into some large DD


I know this is a simple system but diffucult till it kicks in for me at least

Looking at the chart is like trying to read a letter backward while looking at it in a mirror i guess

I asked cosgrove a question would you mind ansewing too?
  • #834
  • Jan 6, 2010 9:13am Jan 6, 2010 9:13am
Quoting dryclean
So sorry!
He started the day after you!

The simularity I see is in identifying divergence and the corralation of pairs
I know there is no hedging here and I know that style will get you into some large DD


I know this is a simple system but diffucult till it kicks in for me at least

Looking at the chart is like trying to read a letter backward while looking at it in a mirror i guess

I asked cosgrove a question would you mind ansewing too?
Cosgrove has posted his backtest results.
  • #835
  • Edited 9:52am Jan 7, 2010 5:55am | Edited 9:52am
Quoting dryclean
Cosgrove
Are you trading live
and also what has been your experience as in % of winning trades and for what period of time.
I'm taking the occasional trade live with a small account, but the vast majority of what I post are "paper" trades after the fact.

As bill said, most of my 2009 results are in this thread. Click my post count to see all of my posts.

My December results were great until the last day of trading (23rd for me, and I imagine that will be so every year), where I had 4 losses. I ended up with 9 wins, 8 losses, gain of 2.26% if you were trading 3%/trade.

Average monthly gain for 2009 was 12.8%/month if you were trading 3%/trade, and while there were a few months with close to 0% gain, there were no losing months.*

I counted somewhere around 318 "signals" for 2009. I say signals, because that includes trades where I closed an open buy when a sell came up, etc. Win rate of 57%, expectancy of 0.14.

*I have not double checked these results trade-by-trade yet.
Hindsight is 20/20
  • #836
  • Jan 7, 2010 8:01am Jan 7, 2010 8:01am
Crap, missed this 15m U/C buy loss on Monday:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf_buy_201001040915.gif Size: 21 KB
Hindsight is 20/20
  • #837
  • Edited Jan 8, 2010 6:39am Jan 7, 2010 10:52am | Edited Jan 8, 2010 6:39am
Late day 30m U/C sell. Overlay was higher by 1 pip.

edit: stopped out
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf_sell_201001071800.gif Size: 21 KB
Hindsight is 20/20
  • #838
  • Jan 7, 2010 7:33pm Jan 7, 2010 7:33pm
I'm having serious issues fixing missing bar problems (cause of "overlay shift" when back testing) using mt4 and windows 7. I think it has something to do with the user account control permissions. I've tried different things like turning UAC off/running mt4 in admin mode/importing fresh data, but I can't get "history center" changes to stick. I had a similar problem in Vista for a while.

Unless someone knows how to get around this, I do not recommend trying to back test on windows 7.
Hindsight is 20/20
  • #839
  • Jan 7, 2010 7:40pm Jan 7, 2010 7:40pm
Short on the E/U
nice dip on E/U made a few pips

the sell U/C was an experiment gone bad
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: untitled.GIF Size: 58 KB
  • #840
  • Jan 8, 2010 7:17am Jan 8, 2010 7:17am
I would have most likely ignored the second setup coming right after the first on the U/C buys. Also attached is an E/U buy loss. Counting these as 1 win 1 loss.

There were a few other setups today that didn't make the 1 pip difference rule.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf_buy_201001081030.gif Size: 24 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_buy_201001081230.gif Size: 22 KB
Hindsight is 20/20
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