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AUD/USD

  • #12,301
  • Dec 23, 2009 3:17pm Dec 23, 2009 3:17pm
Quoting oztrader1
Could someone do me a favour and tell me what the high and the low was for this pair over the past 12 hours?

Many thanks
8734 - 8817
  • #12,302
  • Dec 23, 2009 3:21pm Dec 23, 2009 3:21pm
Quoting Mckal41
it did hit .8819 then started a descent, showing short on 5m, 1h, 8h
my concern is it developing a head and shoulders on the 1hr?
time will tell...with news on the USD in the AM we should see a rally to finish out the year, unemploymet should be low
any thoughts?
Hi mate what's the news on the USD in the AM u are talking about? Do u mean unemployment no.s?
  • #12,303
  • Dec 23, 2009 3:25pm Dec 23, 2009 3:25pm
Quoting Clouds
8734 - 8817
thanks clouds.

I'm loaded up very heavy short but may need to lighten up a bit so I can move out my stop (currently at 8875). I believe we are in a sustained down trend for at least a month or so but don't wanna risk being stopped out on a minor correction rally.

Thoughts?
  • #12,304
  • Dec 23, 2009 4:08pm Dec 23, 2009 4:08pm
Quoting oztrader1
thanks clouds.

I'm loaded up very heavy short but may need to lighten up a bit so I can move out my stop (currently at 8875). I believe we are in a sustained down trend for at least a month or so but don't wanna risk being stopped out on a minor correction rally.

Thoughts?
Hi Oz,
I am heavily short as well from 8764. My stop was 8825, just above pivot, which didnt hit ( Lucky). I am removing my SL as I dont think much will happen during asian session. But I agree with you that trend is downwards.
Someone mentioned its a bank holiday is australia. Do you know if that is the case?
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #12,305
  • Dec 23, 2009 4:21pm Dec 23, 2009 4:21pm
I would be careful holding too many shorts from here unless you have a wide stop loss.
The euro looks short term bullish to me, and DX short term bearish, unless it can move up from where it is now then it will probably be down into 77.7.
Aud looks less bullish than euro to me but unless it can start trading below 8785 again it will move up with the euro.
  • #12,306
  • Dec 23, 2009 4:25pm Dec 23, 2009 4:25pm
Quoting tradoholic
Hi Oz,
I am heavily short as well from 8764. My stop was 8825, just above pivot, which didnt hit ( Lucky). I am removing my SL as I dont think much will happen during asian session. But I agree with you that trend is downwards.
Someone mentioned its a bank holiday is australia. Do you know if that is the case?
Good to see your stop held. Good placement!

May as well be a bank holiday - pretty thin right now.
  • #12,307
  • Dec 23, 2009 4:25pm Dec 23, 2009 4:25pm
As far as I'm aware its not a bank holiday here today (although I'm not 100% certain).
  • #12,308
  • Dec 23, 2009 4:32pm Dec 23, 2009 4:32pm
hi all

does any one think the pair will go down 0.8750 now??????
  • #12,309
  • Dec 23, 2009 4:39pm Dec 23, 2009 4:39pm
Quoting amyc
unless it can start trading below 8785

Agree with you on the pivotal level here.

Looks like it should have enough interest in at least probing lower and enough resistance between here and .8800 for few attempts at a continuation downward shortly(pun).
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  • #12,310
  • Dec 23, 2009 4:52pm Dec 23, 2009 4:52pm
Quoting amyc
I would be careful holding too many shorts from here unless you have a wide stop loss.
The euro looks short term bullish to me, and DX short term bearish, unless it can move up from where it is now then it will probably be down into 77.7.
Aud looks less bullish than euro to me but unless it can start trading below 8785 again it will move up with the euro.
I agree. I wait to see what happens around 8785, major decision point.

Good luck to all, thanks for the info shared on one of my favourite pairs ;-)
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Be like water.
  • #12,311
  • Dec 23, 2009 5:12pm Dec 23, 2009 5:12pm
8780's held for now, looking to acquire some shorts between 8800-8825
Grabbing the bull by the horns!
  • #12,312
  • Dec 23, 2009 5:15pm Dec 23, 2009 5:15pm
Quoting FXSurfer
Agree with you on the pivotal level here.

Looks like it should have enough interest in at least probing lower and enough resistance between here and .8800 for few attempts at a continuation downward shortly(pun).
I think Gold pushed Aud up. Sometimes its confusing to see which one is the cause and which is the effect
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #12,313
  • Dec 23, 2009 5:19pm Dec 23, 2009 5:19pm
Quoting tradoholic
I think Gold pushed Aud up. Sometimes its confusing to see which one is the cause and which is the effect
Absolutely. The chicken and the egg co-exist here in the twilight zone. LOL!

Meanwhile, .8800 being probed as nearby resistance.
  • #12,314
  • Dec 23, 2009 5:26pm Dec 23, 2009 5:26pm
Quoting amyc
The euro looks short term bullish to me,
Instead, I think USD, is short term bullish, another 10-30 days..

You still doesn't realize AUD and USD interest rates differences

3.75% vs virtually 0%. And if you don't, then Others sure does.
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #12,315
  • Dec 23, 2009 5:32pm Dec 23, 2009 5:32pm
AUD/USD: Underperforms As Longs Still Paring Back Sydney, December 24: The AUD/USD made a decent recovery from the 0.8735 low - but considering the broad USD weakness and string rise in commodity prices - the recovery was a bit disappointing. The AUD fell 0.35% against the CAD while the AUD/NZD fell around 0.4% from the highs seen following the weaker than expected NZ GDP. The AUD/USD failed to move above Tuesday"s 0.8835 high - as standing sell orders at 0.8820 capped rallies during the US session.
Traders say that there are still a few stale AUD/USD longs that are making it difficult for the pairing to make a full recovery despite the fact that the AUD was one of the worst performing currencies last week and was again on Monday/Tuesday. The sell orders around 0.8820 coupled with stops below 0.8720 supports the "stale-longs" view. There is talk today of very good buying around 0.8750 that should ensure the stops are safe for the time-being.
The AUD/USD has made a lower daily low for the past eight trading days so it needs to stay above Wednesday's 0.8735 low and trade above the day"s high at 0.8818 to signal that the downward momentum is waning.
The fundament factors are AUD supportive. Commodity prices are starting to strengthen again, equity markets are buoyant (the S&P closing price was the highest in 14 months) and the VIX index closed below the key 20 level for the second straight day. Trading should be very quiet today and keep the AUD/USD in a 0.8775/0.8825 range for most of the day.
  • #12,316
  • Dec 23, 2009 5:33pm Dec 23, 2009 5:33pm
Quoting SkyzerFX
Instead, I think USD, is short term bullish, another 10-30 days..

You still doesn't realize AUD and USD interest rates differences

3.75% vs virtually 0%. And if you don't, then Others sure does.
Good point on that fundie. Thanks!

Timing though? That's tougher!
  • #12,317
  • Dec 23, 2009 5:37pm Dec 23, 2009 5:37pm
AUD traded in narrow range with upside limited by report of weaker than expected Q3 GDP from New Zealand,
diminished RBA rate hike speculation and selling in cross trade to CAD. New Zealand's Q3 GDP rose by just
0.2%, the trade had expected a 0.4% rise. The weaker than expected New Zealand's GDP adds to recent
concern about slowing domestic growth in Australia. Tuesday, Australia reported an unexpected decline in
October LEI. The decline in Australia's LEI adds to recent fears that RBA rate hikes have contributed to slowing of
recovery in Australia's domestic economy. AUD has been pressured by concern about the outlook for Australia's
economy and diminished RBA rate hike speculation. At the start of December investors were looking for the RBA
to hike rates by 50 basis points in February. The trade now is looking for the RBA to pause in its tightening cycle
6 | Daily forex Report
because the sustainability of the economic recovery in Australia becomes less certain. Australia also reported
weaker than expected Q3 GDP which adds to speculation that the RBA will soon pause its rate hike cycle. AUD
remains vulnerable to diminished RBA rate hike speculation and speculation that Fed is moving closer to the end
of its ease cycle.
The technical outlook for the AUD is negative as the AUD drops below 8900. Expect AUD support at 8635 the
December 23rd low with resistance at 8835 the December 22nd high.
  • #12,318
  • Dec 23, 2009 5:38pm Dec 23, 2009 5:38pm
AUD/USD intraday: the bias remains bullish.


Pivot: 0.875

Preference: Long positions above 0.875 with targets @ 0.882 & 0.8875 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 0.875 look for further downside with 0.8715 & 0.8675 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is supported by a bullish trend line.

Key levels
0.891
0.8875
0.882
0.8788 last
0.875
0.8715
0.8675
Attached Image
  • #12,319
  • Dec 23, 2009 5:55pm Dec 23, 2009 5:55pm
what a delicious biscuit of 8805
Grabbing the bull by the horns!
  • #12,320
  • Dec 23, 2009 6:48pm Dec 23, 2009 6:48pm
Quoting whitegoodman
what a delicious biscuit of 8805
But, is the collective belly full enough to sink? We'll see - .8800 being probed downward again right now. Probably test the bottom of the range at .8780 really soon adding a little dough to your biscuit.
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