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AUD/USD

  • #12,161
  • Dec 22, 2009 7:16pm Dec 22, 2009 7:16pm
Quoting Mckal41
The US will raise the interest rate in the beggining of the year, giving much needed strength to the dollar, economic indicators are in position and the US economy will gradually regain strength ...housing and retails sales are up coupled with a raised interest rate should increase the value 10 fold... I looked back to the charts and the AUD /US has climbed for the past 8 years...what goes up must come down
If US raises interest rate, it will only be in June 2010. Between now and then there will be lots more fundamentals that will go to work to determine the future of the USD. I dont think the RBA will raise rates in Feb. but many believe that they would. I just saw a report on TV, an economist on channel 7 was saying that we WILL have a rate rise of 1.5% in 2010 in Australia. Only time will tell
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #12,162
  • Dec 22, 2009 7:21pm Dec 22, 2009 7:21pm
That is outrageous! can you imagine what that will do for the AUD
  • #12,163
  • Dec 22, 2009 7:33pm Dec 22, 2009 7:33pm
Quoting Mckal41
That is outrageous! can you imagine what that will do for the AUD
It sure is, now keeping in mind that the markets tend to price in factors such as these, then maybe that would explain the resilience of AUD as opoosed to others such as Euro and GBP.
All that said and done, I am now nett short on Aussie from 8773. 8780 seems to be a big resistance level that I dont think we will cross with todays volumes. I think it will retest the 8750 mark again.
Good luck all
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #12,164
  • Dec 22, 2009 8:00pm Dec 22, 2009 8:00pm
I hope so...I missed my TP by 5 pips....now have to wait for it to drop
  • #12,165
  • Dec 22, 2009 8:50pm Dec 22, 2009 8:50pm
Quoting Mckal41
I hope so...I missed my TP by 5 pips....now have to wait for it to drop
0.8750 is coming again...hold on I'm shaking that money tree for the both of us
  • #12,166
  • Dec 22, 2009 9:01pm Dec 22, 2009 9:01pm
Its like pennies from heaven....well maybe more !
what are your thoughts for support....I am looking at 8680 plus or minus if breached...a long wild ride
  • #12,167
  • Dec 22, 2009 9:02pm Dec 22, 2009 9:02pm
Quoting Mckal41
Its like pennies from heaven....well maybe more !
what are your thoughts for support....I am looking at 8680 plus or minus if breached...a long wild ride
0.8675
  • #12,168
  • Dec 22, 2009 9:04pm Dec 22, 2009 9:04pm
that works for me
  • #12,169
  • Dec 22, 2009 9:05pm Dec 22, 2009 9:05pm
Quoting Daytrader74
0.8750 is coming again...hold on I'm shaking that money tree for the both of us
looks to me like 8708 is coming up
  • #12,170
  • Dec 22, 2009 9:12pm Dec 22, 2009 9:12pm
any good snowballing pointers anyone?
  • #12,171
  • Dec 22, 2009 9:12pm Dec 22, 2009 9:12pm
Quoting amyc
looks to me like 8708 is coming up
I was just told by a good source that last night RBA was intervening at 8780, and today they are doing the same at 8755. If they leave it alone then we will probably see 86s soon. But I dont think they will do that. I am closing my positions 8755 and calling it a day. Good luck to you all.
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #12,172
  • Dec 22, 2009 9:52pm Dec 22, 2009 9:52pm
See attached file for a very interesting read !
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf UBS GOLD TECHNICALS.pdf   130 KB | 758 downloads
  • #12,173
  • Dec 22, 2009 10:08pm Dec 22, 2009 10:08pm
Quoting tradoholic
I was just told by a good source that last night RBA was intervening at 8780, and today they are doing the same at 8755. If they leave it alone then we will probably see 86s soon. But I dont think they will do that. I am closing my positions 8755 and calling it a day. Good luck to you all.
Central banks around the world only intervenes in the market when they feel that their currency is either over valued or under valued. They intervened at 60ish level because AUD was way under valued and they also intervened at .9325 coz they thought it was over valued.

RBA is not a trader and they dont intervene in mid-ranges.

AUD is fair value is somewhere around 85 cent mark based on PPP.
  • #12,174
  • Dec 22, 2009 10:12pm Dec 22, 2009 10:12pm
I am looking for .8745 for TP, then add short at.8758 will hedge if necessary but do not forsee, another tp at 8708...afterwards I am out for the night
  • #12,175
  • Dec 22, 2009 10:12pm Dec 22, 2009 10:12pm
Quoting puks
Central banks around the world only intervenes in the market when they feel that their currency is either over valued or under valued. They intervened at 60ish level because AUD was way under valued and they also intervened at .9325 coz they thought it was over valued.

RBA is not a trader and they dont intervene in mid-ranges.

AUD is fair value is somewhere around 85 cent mark based on PPP.
Well said my friend.
  • #12,176
  • Dec 22, 2009 10:15pm Dec 22, 2009 10:15pm
is when you second guess...I am re evaluating for TP at 8738...but whats a few pips right?
  • #12,177
  • Dec 22, 2009 10:16pm Dec 22, 2009 10:16pm
Quoting Mckal41
is when you second guess...I am re evaluating for TP at 8738...but whats a few pips right?
My TP is at 0.8720
  • #12,178
  • Dec 22, 2009 10:27pm Dec 22, 2009 10:27pm
from .8720....depending on the time we should see a sell off on the GBP prior to news ..AUD should follow suit I really hate getting caught in the news with high gearing..or any gearing for that matter, Britian news earlier was they are still in recession ...this is what makes this so darn interesting...we can speculate until the cows come home but we never know what they were up to when they were out
  • #12,179
  • Dec 22, 2009 10:35pm Dec 22, 2009 10:35pm
Quoting Mckal41
from .8720....depending on the time we should see a sell off on the GBP prior to news ..AUD should follow suit I really hate getting caught in the news with high gearing..or any gearing for that matter, Britian news earlier was they are still in recession ...this is what makes this so darn interesting...we can speculate until the cows come home but we never know what they were up to when they were out
as long as it stays below 8785 then i think that it will get to 8708 eventually, also once there it will do another bar down (85 pips), which then means it will go down further next week, but the one sticking point is the dailys, there is a lot of support at the 8740-45 level, needs to break that first.
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  • #12,180
  • Dec 22, 2009 10:36pm Dec 22, 2009 10:36pm
Quoting Mckal41
from .8720....depending on the time we should see a sell off on the GBP prior to news ..AUD should follow suit I really hate getting caught in the news with high gearing..or any gearing for that matter, Britian news earlier was they are still in recession ...this is what makes this so darn interesting...we can speculate until the cows come home but we never know what they were up to when they were out
I just think that the cows will not come home

And yes I do see a little bit of an upside back to about 0.8760 - 0.8790 once we hit lows of 0.8720 -0.8700
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