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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #4,621
  • Dec 21, 2009 5:27am Dec 21, 2009 5:27am
Quoting ThomKnight
Absolutely! technically I am short gy to mid 60's and below but god knows how long that will take to happen.

Tk
I've been looking at a potential long setup in the last few hours that would get me up to 148.30ish, but so far no trigger. Only active shorts right now. Check your email.
  • #4,622
  • Dec 21, 2009 6:25am Dec 21, 2009 6:25am
according to my charts you are both right!!!! i have the G/Y going down to at least low 143 area (notice i said at least, could go further) but then it must turn around and finish another fib at 149 (at least 149 could go further) but at some point it must turn again and finish a much larger fib @ mid 135 area!!
  • #4,623
  • Dec 21, 2009 10:28am Dec 21, 2009 10:28am
Quoting Scotty B
I've been looking at a potential long setup in the last few hours that would get me up to 148.30ish, but so far no trigger. Only active shorts right now. Check your email.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=4577

but of course it can waft theoretically all the way back to the zero. I am not trading right now though since the market is so thin.

TK
  • #4,624
  • Dec 21, 2009 11:43am Dec 21, 2009 11:43am
Quoting ThomKnight
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=4577

but of course it can waft theoretically all the way back to the zero. I am not trading right now though since the market is so thin.

TK
So are you calculating your DD down to the zero line then? Thats a lot of wafting. This is another problem many traders find with fibs. If you enter at the trigger line and you are only trading to the 1.382, then you're left with an inverse risk:reward. Many times, price will not give a retracment after the trigger, leaving the trader stuck. Now, if you can really be 100% assured that price will hit it's target then it's no problem, but I have yet to see anyone demonstrate this. Yes there are lots of different ways to fib, but I've seen them all fail.

I don't know if you are trading that larger daily fib or not, but when you have to calculate your DD over thousands of pips you really water down your trade, not to mention the huge time commitment..Unless you are say, Soros or something and you can put on a trade large enough to give you a decent return.
  • #4,625
  • Dec 21, 2009 1:06pm Dec 21, 2009 1:06pm
Quoting Scotty B
So are you calculating your DD down to the zero line then? Thats a lot of wafting. This is another problem many traders find with fibs. If you enter at the trigger line and you are only trading to the 1.382, then you're left with an inverse risk:reward. Many times, price will not give a retracment after the trigger, leaving the trader stuck. Now, if you can really be 100% assured that price will hit it's target then it's no problem, but I have yet to see anyone demonstrate this. Yes there are lots of different ways to fib, but I've seen them all...
Nope

that 38 touch... IMO should be the last time before it hits target. One can also pick up long fibs from there and trade smaller.

TK
  • #4,626
  • Edited 11:39pm Dec 21, 2009 11:05pm | Edited 11:39pm
Quoting ThomKnight
Nope

that 38 touch... IMO should be the last time before it hits target. One can also pick up long fibs from there and trade smaller.

TK
With all do respect, that's certainly not 100%. Sure you could argue that "the fibs are always right......eventually" But when you start getting in at the trigger and lose a few times in a row, when price does finally make it to a T1 you hardly break even. Unless of course you wait to enter until your R:R becomes more favorable.

If one could use fibs to anticipate pip perfect hits off of fib levels to gain razor thin entries via waiting limit orders with razor thin stops, well then you'd be in business. This would be especially true if you could do this in situations where you let price run for a couple hundred pips. If you are right only 1 times out of 10 (or even 15 or more, you adjust the numbers), you could live off of even a modest account in no time. Most traders are too thick to figure this out though, most traders trade backwards.
  • #4,627
  • Dec 22, 2009 4:57am Dec 22, 2009 4:57am
Quoting ThomKnight
Nope

that 38 touch... IMO should be the last time before it hits target. One can also pick up long fibs from there and trade smaller.

TK
Hey there TK,

I just thought i would drop a note to say your analysis is spot on & the more i study the charts, the more i am convinced your style of trading is the way to go, so thanks very much for putting the time in!

Cheers

HR
  • #4,628
  • Dec 22, 2009 5:30am Dec 22, 2009 5:30am
Quoting Scotty B
With all do respect, that's certainly not 100%. Sure you could argue that "the fibs are always right......eventually" But when you start getting in at the trigger and lose a few times in a row, when price does finally make it to a T1 you hardly break even. Unless of course you wait to enter until your R:R becomes more favorable.

If one could use fibs to anticipate pip perfect hits off of fib levels to gain razor thin entries via waiting limit orders with razor thin stops, well then you'd be in business. This would be especially true if you...

Only thing that fibs can do is project possible levels of S&R . Those levels will either hold or not (sounds familiar ?).In an ideal situation after a move you will have an retracement to ( 38 ,50 ,61) and then price will aim for T1.If you establish a position around this levels and have T1 target that's a pretty good MM .
Do you have a guarantee that those levels will hold and it will reach T1 ? Of course not.Fibs are just a tool that you use in the battle. That should be correlated with other weapons (PA among others,S&R).However they can be very useful.



TK I have no clue how you apply your fibs. It looks random to me.
  • #4,629
  • Dec 22, 2009 7:06am Dec 22, 2009 7:06am
Quoting speedarad
Only thing that fibs can do is project possible levels of S&R . Those levels will either hold or not (sounds familiar ?).In an ideal situation after a move you will have an retracement to ( 38 ,50 ,61) and then price will aim for T1.If you establish a position around this levels and have T1 target that's a pretty good MM .
Do you have a guarantee that those levels will hold and it will reach T1 ? Of course not.Fibs are just a tool that you use in the battle. That should be correlated with other weapons (PA among others,S&R).However they can be very...
I am by no means saying that fibs are not useful, just that they are severely flawed in the way in which this thread speaks of using them. As I said before, often times you don't get that "ideal situation." The one thing that I do appreciate about fibs is that they give me a target to shoot for while using other methods for trade entry.

All TK is doing is conforming his inner fibs to price. It's not foolproof by any means, but if one wants to use fibs at all, this should be done. An adjusted fib is always more accurate than a plain jane swing high to low fib. The implication is that your 'trigger' line is not necessarily at already defined swing highs and lows. Also, the 0/100 line is not the only 'trigger' line on a fib. The 0/100 line is just the 1.618 extension from the 0 to 61.8 inner fib. And the 61.8 is a trigger (1.618 ext) of the 0 to 38.2 range. This works because of the ever continuing .618 expansion of the Fibonacci sequence itself. The idea is that S/R expands according to the ratio of .618 as price unravels over time.

There are many ways you can conform a fib to price action, what Thom is doing is pretty basic. I'll attach a chart to illustrate what I'm talking about.
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  • #4,630
  • Dec 22, 2009 8:40am Dec 22, 2009 8:40am
Here are some real examples of the same fibs just drawn differently. This is not the holy grail though! Only a precise guide..These do fail so be careful! According to this current pattern we are short...According to other ones we are long..Play around long enough and you'll pull all your hair out.
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  • #4,631
  • Dec 22, 2009 9:06am Dec 22, 2009 9:06am
The pullback I was using for the current cycle was broken to the high side on that last retracement..I personally don't care too much when that happens, I maintain the same target, but some believe that one must reconfigure the fib to the new pullback. For those who prefer such an action, here is the current cycle with a more conservative target. This is also a triggered trade because from the pullback I am using, price was able to move down far enough to break the lower 38.2 fib. Remember, the inner fibs are just different fib's 0/100 lines and therefore triggers.

I must mention that this is not what Skunny teaches...This is the scotty b flavor here. If Skunny wants to do his thing here that's his prerogative and I'll leave it to the man himself. I was never even a member at trade fibs..Well I was going to be until a large misunderstanding arose..Old Scotty B is actually a despised name there. I tried mending the bridge as it were for over a year and never got a response. The ball is in their court I suppose.
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  • #4,632
  • Dec 22, 2009 11:25am Dec 22, 2009 11:25am
Hey Chaps,

Just want to chime in here with my views. I think it is un productive to say fibs are this or fibs are that before you dive in.

In my personal experience.. and you can go back through all of my charts. Fibs are predictive and 100%. Can I trade every market move 100%? Certainly not, but trading is not about me...it is about you.

If you come in with the open mind that a lot of everything you may have learned about traditional trading COULD be incorrect...and work with this method or to learn it...you may be surprised.

Being a blind supporter of an idea with out any tangible proof is as non productive as saying it doesn't work because one cannot do it or it just flies in the face of traditional logic.

So my thought is this as this is not my thread... no blind faith and no negativity if you cannot do it. Questions are always fine and yes this was very frustrating to learn.Extremely so.

so those are just my thoughts agree or disagree, but I think the most important thing in life is to be postive and keep and open mind, no?

TK
  • #4,633
  • Dec 22, 2009 11:28am Dec 22, 2009 11:28am
Quoting Scotty B
With all do respect, that's certainly not 100%. Sure you could argue that "the fibs are always right......eventually" But when you start getting in at the trigger and lose a few times in a row, when price does finally make it to a T1 you hardly break even. Unless of course you wait to enter until your R:R becomes more favorable.

If one could use fibs to anticipate pip perfect hits off of fib levels to gain razor thin entries via waiting limit orders with razor thin stops, well then you'd be in business. This would be especially true if you...
Well... always eventually doesnt pay the bills does it. That is too random for me. R:R only comes into play for me once I know what kind of trade I am in or I eliminate R:R by just allowing enough margin to float to the 0-100.

TK.
  • #4,634
  • Dec 22, 2009 11:29am Dec 22, 2009 11:29am
Quoting Scotty B
I am by no means saying that fibs are not useful, just that they are severely flawed in the way in which this thread speaks of using them. As I said before, often times you don't get that "ideal situation." The one thing that I do appreciate about fibs is that they give me a target to shoot for while using other methods for trade entry.

All TK is doing is conforming his inner fibs to price. It's not foolproof by any means, but if one wants to use fibs at all, this should be done. An adjusted fib is always more accurate than a plain jane swing...
I know it is shockingly simple and deadly effective isn't it? Trading is not complex at all.

TK
  • #4,635
  • Dec 22, 2009 11:36am Dec 22, 2009 11:36am
Quoting speedarad
Only thing that fibs can do is project possible levels of S&R . Those levels will either hold or not (sounds familiar ?).In an ideal situation after a move you will have an retracement to ( 38 ,50 ,61) and then price will aim for T1.If you establish a position around this levels and have T1 target that's a pretty good MM .
Do you have a guarantee that those levels will hold and it will reach T1 ? Of course not.Fibs are just a tool that you use in the battle. That should be correlated with other weapons (PA among others,S&R).However they can be very...
I know it does look random doesn't it. A lot of fib charts looks really random to me as well before hand. Fibs are the only tool I use in battle ATM. I agree though there are many tools and they all work well in the right hands!

TK.
  • #4,636
  • Dec 22, 2009 11:37am Dec 22, 2009 11:37am
Quoting Scotty B
Here are some real examples of the same fibs just drawn differently. This is not the holy grail though! Only a precise guide..These do fail so be careful! According to this current pattern we are short...According to other ones we are long..Play around long enough and you'll pull all your hair out.
Ain't that the truth mate!

You have to take a second and get on page with the market other wise you will be upside down in a hurry!

TK
  • #4,637
  • Dec 22, 2009 11:39am Dec 22, 2009 11:39am
Quoting bartstop
I'm starting to like gbpjpy again. Now that I'm starting to understand her insanity. Thank you TK.

How did that work out for you mate? Obviously smashing! We had a brief move back on open.. but that is to be expect and the market gets its footing. A very nice last trade of the year!
'

TK.
  • #4,638
  • Dec 22, 2009 1:52pm Dec 22, 2009 1:52pm
Quoting ThomKnight
How did that work out for you mate? Obviously smashing! We had a brief move back on open.. but that is to be expect and the market gets its footing. A very nice last trade of the year!
'

TK.

Price never hit my target, did you have your fib drawn the same as mine?
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  • #4,639
  • Dec 22, 2009 2:08pm Dec 22, 2009 2:08pm
Quoting bartstop
Price never hit my target, did you have your fib drawn the same as mine?

Of course! It will hit here in a few I imagine, but the fantastically thin markets are a big reason I stay away from Hols trading. It gets there... but it takes it's bloody time.


TK
  • #4,640
  • Dec 22, 2009 2:39pm Dec 22, 2009 2:39pm
Quoting ThomKnight
Of course! It will hit here in a few I imagine, but the fantastically thin markets are a big reason I stay away from Hols trading. It gets there... but it takes it's bloody time.


TK
I closed my position after that spike up. I thought I had my fib wrong. I've been bitten too many times, especially by that pair.

As for the debate taking place in this thread. I think it's good for those of us that are learning to see different viewpoints. I don't take anybody's method as the holy grail. I'm slowly finding my own method that works best for me. This thread and those who have contributed to it have had a serious impact on my trading, in a positive way. I hope that I'm on my way to making a living from this. Please keep the discussion going. It's much appreciated.



Bartstop
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