Thanks oRange and the same to you! How are things in Borneo these days?
Eying the EU for weakness around the 21 for a possible short.
4 Hour Strategy (MACD)
- #21,701
- Dec 21, 2009 7:21pm Dec 21, 2009 7:21pm
- | Joined Dec 2008 | Status: revisit | 1,896 Posts
- #21,705
- Edited 4:12am Dec 22, 2009 1:50am | Edited 4:12am
Saka,
I am still holding the AU short from last week.
EDIT : Closed at .88256 for 12 pips due to low momentum and impatience on my behalf to start the vacation.
- #21,707
- Dec 22, 2009 3:06am Dec 22, 2009 3:06am
Saka,
I closed my AU short trade and went long. There is much divergence in both AU and EU. Entry .88129 S/L .87609
I still consider this is a good middle-term trade. Because it has good pattern in daily chart. I have still held all my position with a new sl.
At daily chart, you can see a blue daily trend line which Phillip has showed us from weekly warpup. Price may crack or bouncd from it then crack that trend line
Then let's zoom out to see a detailed picture of daily chart to see my target. Because the main daily trend line (Lime line) has been cracked alreay, I think there are 3 places that price has high probability to go to. A is 23.6 retracement, then is 200 sma of daily chart which is B. I think it may approach to 23.6 fib when pirce goes to this level. And A&B are the places where I will close half of my position. C is 38.2% fib, I think Aussie reserve has a better view than Fed, it means that Aussie reserve will increase rate more than Fed, if price falls down more deeply to 50% or even 61.8%, the more risk we will suffer, so I will close all the position at this place.
The last one is 4h chart, just like what you have shown. I added 2 potential paths, price may retrace then be resistanted by the red horizontal line which is bottom of the sHs box, this is 1, the other one is that price may be resistanted by 21ema then crack the blue daily trend line. Meanwhile, I set my sl at 0.8975 which is a little above the red horizontal line. That's almost 2.5% of my capital, it is really worth to gamble. If price bouces up then is resistanted. I will find proper enter point to short it with porper position.
I do this middle-term trend because Chrismas & new year holiday are coming, and I also will prepare for exams of this term. So I have little time to watch market.
Plan your trades and trade your plans
- #21,708
- Dec 22, 2009 3:13am Dec 22, 2009 3:13am
Merry Christmas Day and happy new year to all the friends at 4h tread! Thanks to my teacher Master Phillip. Wish you all have a good luck and obtain lots of pips at 2010!
Plan your trades and trade your plans
- #21,709
- Edited 3:52am Dec 22, 2009 3:36am | Edited 3:52am
Dear Xen
I still consider this is a good middle-term trade. Because it has good pattern in daily chart. I have still held all my position with a new sl.
At daily chart, you can see a blue daily trend line which Phillip has showed us from weekly warpup. Price may crack or bouncd from it then crack that trend line
Attachment
Then let's zoom out to see a detailed picture of daily chart to see my target. Because the main daily trend line (Lime line) has been cracked alreay, I think there are 3 places that price has high probability...
IMO it could be dangerous to hold over Xmas amd New Year period as the volume is so low that it could be quite volatile. Just my 2 cents.
- #21,710
- Dec 22, 2009 4:05am Dec 22, 2009 4:05am
IMO it could be dangerous to hold over Xmas amd New Year period as the volume is so low that it could be quite volatile. Just my 2 cents.
Plan your trades and trade your plans
- #21,714
- Dec 22, 2009 7:48am Dec 22, 2009 7:48am
- | Joined Apr 2005 | Status: Cruising The Outer Rim... | 2,175 Posts
Looking at the EU...
The final GDP number was $ positive and that pair is moving up a little. Also, there is some bearish divergence showing up in int eh RSi and stochs. The gap between the 8 and 21 are starting to narrow as well. The daily 50% retracement level is just above the 4165 area too. I think the fundamentals for the EU are still in play short but we might be in the process of a little pop to the upside...just a hunch but the charts have the last word as always. I'm not a bottom or top picker...learned that lesson my first year, and account, of trading. If we make it to the 50% level things can range there for a while, again we'll see. Markets will be thinning out soon for the holiday so tomorrow morning is my last time to trade for the week...
Whatever holiday you celebrate this time of year, make it a good one and be safe.
Peace to everyone!
The final GDP number was $ positive and that pair is moving up a little. Also, there is some bearish divergence showing up in int eh RSi and stochs. The gap between the 8 and 21 are starting to narrow as well. The daily 50% retracement level is just above the 4165 area too. I think the fundamentals for the EU are still in play short but we might be in the process of a little pop to the upside...just a hunch but the charts have the last word as always. I'm not a bottom or top picker...learned that lesson my first year, and account, of trading
. If we make it to the 50% level things can range there for a while, again we'll see. Markets will be thinning out soon for the holiday so tomorrow morning is my last time to trade for the week...Whatever holiday you celebrate this time of year, make it a good one and be safe.
Peace to everyone!
- #21,715
- Dec 22, 2009 9:02am Dec 22, 2009 9:02am
- | Joined Apr 2005 | Status: Cruising The Outer Rim... | 2,175 Posts
- #21,717
- Dec 22, 2009 2:38pm Dec 22, 2009 2:38pm
- | Joined Apr 2005 | Status: Cruising The Outer Rim... | 2,175 Posts
Dear Xen
I still consider this is a good middle-term trade. Because it has good pattern in daily chart. I have still held all my position with a new sl.
At daily chart, you can see a blue daily trend line which Phillip has showed us from weekly warpup. Price may crack or bouncd from it then crack that trend line
Attachment
Then let's zoom out .....
I do this middle-term trend because Chrismas & new year holiday are coming, and I also will prepare for exams of this term. So I have little time to watch market.
Dear Saka,
I have also been trading short on AU as xeneric and more of us I suppose. I closed today at 0.8763 (at 38.2 fibo) as I thing AU will retrace for a while / as you have shown above. I guess AU can follow EU in Jan and nobody knows which way...
Level 0.8760 is also double top on 14-23 Sep 09 so we might expect some resistance here.
Saka, thanks for sharing your thoughts
much appreciated.Do you follow Kiwi? I am thinking of entering short at 0.7000 http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
~Lukis
Merry Xmas & Happy New Year 2010 to all of you.
- #21,720
- Dec 23, 2009 12:20am Dec 23, 2009 12:20am
I have also been trading short on AU as xeneric and more of us I suppose. I closed today at 0.8763 (at 38.2 fibo) as I thing AU will retrace for a while / as you have shown above. I guess AU can follow EU in Jan and nobody knows which way...
Do you follow Kiwi? I am thinking of entering short at 0.7000 http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
. As au, I think if you want to trade a middle-term, you had better use daily chart, draw fib from 4th March to 16th November. The double tops is so little that I don't think it would be a strong support. Plan your trades and trade your plans