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AUD/USD

  • #12,001
  • Dec 17, 2009 8:21pm Dec 17, 2009 8:21pm
Quoting Daytrader74
By when do you purpose it will get to 0.9000 ?
Hopefully never. I'm short and thinking of setting a stop there
  • #12,002
  • Dec 17, 2009 8:26pm Dec 17, 2009 8:26pm
Quoting oztrader1
Hopefully never. I'm short and thinking of setting a stop there
Never say never
  • #12,003
  • Dec 17, 2009 8:57pm Dec 17, 2009 8:57pm
Can any one apart from me see it going up to 8930-8950 in the short term. This is what my charts tell me.
  • #12,004
  • Dec 17, 2009 9:46pm Dec 17, 2009 9:46pm
Quoting ozpips
Can any one apart from me see it going up to 8930-8950 in the short term. This is what my charts tell me.
Indeed it should retest... and 9020 is mid-channel, with top at around 9190-9200 at the end of the month. 38.2 fib ret (8950) absolutely possible, IMO, and round number.

Ah, and the pinbar. Better on 3h charts but nonetheless visible on 4h as well.
  • #12,005
  • Dec 17, 2009 9:48pm Dec 17, 2009 9:48pm
Hi Guys new to this chat room! Hi Hello!

Think of going short around current level for a day or 2 and sl at .89 whats your thoughts
  • #12,006
  • Dec 17, 2009 10:12pm Dec 17, 2009 10:12pm
Quoting doblece
Indeed it should retest... and 9020 is mid-channel, with top at around 9190-9200 at the end of the month. 38.2 fib ret (8950) absolutely possible, IMO, and round number.

Ah, and the pinbar. Better on 3h charts but nonetheless visible on 4h as well.
Hello
Long time didn't see you! Hope all fine
I guess you stop post with e/u thread?They are lost valuable post for sure from you
Agree with your view
  • #12,007
  • Dec 17, 2009 10:21pm Dec 17, 2009 10:21pm
Just wondering what everyone is thinking this pair will do over the next few hours... will we see 0.8950 first before going down from there again or will there be further fall first from its current level ??
  • #12,008
  • Dec 17, 2009 10:37pm Dec 17, 2009 10:37pm
i think its ripe to fall soon lots of movement now but its very volatile
  • #12,009
  • Dec 17, 2009 10:48pm Dec 17, 2009 10:48pm
Quoting Daytrader74
Just wondering what everyone is thinking this pair will do over the next few hours... will we see 0.8950 first before going down from there again or will there be further fall first from its current level ??
To be honest dont really know what I think about this anymore DT.First off I was pretty sure we would be seeing some part of 87 today especially in the early part of the session when we were down to 8808...since then it has bounced and has traded in a tightish range for the best part of the session.

Looking at R at 8917 from there R at 9010 if it does happen to break....just had a swim to a. wake up !!! b. cool down.....will await the UK open then we may see some action cos this Asian one has given me the shits.
  • #12,010
  • Edited 11:41pm Dec 17, 2009 10:58pm | Edited 11:41pm
Quoting egkid
I guess you stop post with e/u thread?
Hi! And thanks
I deserted the e/u thread because I've been almost solely trading A/U since the beginning of this year...

To Daytrader: added to what I wrote in my last post, would also be (on daily TF) a possible wave 4 (a 38.2 retracement fits inside the EW rules). If bulls recover, I would even think of the possibility of price rising to 9000-9020 but as for now I don't see much strength (although if 89 is broken to the upside maybe they'll come around "en masse"?)

Wave 5 afterwards can easily go all the way to 8500 or even 82xx... but this won't be so soon, I think. Conservatively, it should definitely reach 8750-8700 but by now the retest to the upside is due, IMO, and to me is confirmed by the confluence of all the above mentioned factors (pinbar, daily EW, fibs, channel trendlines...) but in the end... only the Big Boys have the last word on this, lol

Oh and I forgot: today is Friday... profit taking day?
  • #12,011
  • Dec 17, 2009 11:06pm Dec 17, 2009 11:06pm
Hello all,

I have just posted an updated version of my trading method for anyone interested. Bear necessities over my way.

Desert Island Trading Journal
  • #12,012
  • Dec 18, 2009 1:12am Dec 18, 2009 1:12am
Come on shake that money tree once again for dady
  • #12,013
  • Dec 18, 2009 11:05am Dec 18, 2009 11:05am
It got somehow quiet around here.
Party time already?
  • #12,014
  • Dec 18, 2009 12:22pm Dec 18, 2009 12:22pm
End of the week retracement. Things will pick up when the market opens again. Still down on my end. Pleasant trading.
  • #12,015
  • Dec 18, 2009 12:40pm Dec 18, 2009 12:40pm
Quoting Pirin
probably not I had TP for most of my short trades at 0.8888 and am now watching for a hedge with long NZD/JPY. If we see a retrace in AUD/USD, we can reenter short
Hi Pirin,
Nice it looks like you hit that on the nose. I'm wondering if this down move is a result of end of yr short term dollar strength or is this a new long term downtrend meaning? Of course the day charts look to be very toppy. there is some support in the short term but lots of resistance above.
Before Forex I was tall, and clean shaven. Now I am an Ewok.
  • #12,016
  • Dec 20, 2009 12:52am Dec 20, 2009 12:52am
This my weekly review

After break "shampoo" pattern neckline, maybe price will rebound to the neckline as next resistance.
Attached Image
  • #12,017
  • Dec 20, 2009 1:40am Dec 20, 2009 1:40am
Aud wave count (3) of three didn't reach 1.618 (post #11957) but it did reach 1.22 (fib numbr) and shows a tidy internal five wave count, so there is a good probability we have finished wave (3) of three. Wave (4) could reach 0.90 (50% retracement of (3), then wave (5)/three could reach about 0.86 (if w. (1) = w. (5)). This is similar action to Masut's analysis

cheers
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUD 19 DEC 09.JPG Size: 66 KB
  • #12,018
  • Dec 20, 2009 11:25am Dec 20, 2009 11:25am
I agree. I entered a long at 8878 on Friday for that reason. Also this pair showed so much resistance falling unlike most of the other pairs against the USD. There was maybe a 20 pips range all day. I am still bearish on this pair but not until a quick run up, in my opinion.
  • #12,019
  • Dec 20, 2009 11:40am Dec 20, 2009 11:40am
i hope too im waiting 2 hours again
  • #12,020
  • Dec 20, 2009 3:15pm Dec 20, 2009 3:15pm
Quoting TexasforEX
added another short @ .8890.

3 lots short total .9270, .9152, .8890

Howdy aussie traders.

I just got out of my short @ .8890 at BE. Wanted to reduce some risk going into the thin week. A little move higher is possible from here. Thin markets are scary
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
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